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Dr. Dan

Darrell Henderson - LA Rams

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4 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

I can find lots more

You could start with actual clip of Henderson, not Miles Sanders. And not a highlight video either. 

You could also make reasoned reply so we could have a discussion. Instead of, you know, normal Bronco Billy stuff. 

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2 hours ago, LawFitz said:

The guy in these vids that actually ran with forward lean and made a sharpe cut was Miles Sanders. 

I was like, "Damn, Henderson can make some great moves. Wait a minute...."

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

No way. Schtick right?

Of course it is.  I like it.  Can't wait until he duplicates one because BAM I am coming for him :D

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5 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Of course it is.  I like it.  Can't wait until he duplicates one because BAM I am coming for him :D

I'm sure hes using a spreadsheet to keep track.

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16 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

You could start with actual clip of Henderson, not Miles Sanders. And not a highlight video either. 

You could also make reasoned reply so we could have a discussion. Instead of, you know, normal Bronco Billy stuff. 

 

Watch closely. This is how you admit that you were mistaken:

 

Crap, sorry, midposted first link.  That’s my bad.

 

Now, how does that affect the evidence contained in the second link?

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29 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

It's a highlight video.

 

So that means what?  That the traits he shows were airbrushed in?  You know what?  Forget it.  I don’t know why I expected different.

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Watch closely. This is how you admit that you were mistaken:

 

Crap, sorry, midposted first link.  That’s my bad.

 

Now, how does that affect the evidence contained in the second link?

I'm actually glad you mistakenly posted the Sanders clip. If you compare Miles' lateral movement in that vid (and many others of him) to the highlight vid you posted of Declan, you'll see a big difference. One guy leans forward and cuts sharply, the other doesn't. Now this didn't stop Henderson from making huge plays in the ACC, but it's a  red flag for me as he enters the NFL. Watch clips of Alex Collins and you'll see a very similar issue. It doesn't mean guys like this can't be successful, but they are not special, especially if the straight line speed proves to be less impactful in the NFL (hint: it likely will).

But again, all of that said, I'm a huge Sean McVay enthusiast. That guy makes everyone better. He'll make the most of Henderson, though it may never be more than a Gio Bernard / Duke Johnson / Jalen Richard role. And there's nothing wrong with that from an NFL perspective!

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7 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Prior to 2019, was Kamara a feature back?

What about Miles Sanders being drafted top 4, playing on a team that has never used a feature back? 

Or Montgomery going to a team with a passing back in Cohen?

What percent of carries did Dalvin Cook get in 2018?

Is Sony Michel really a "feature back?" He was drafted to be by his owners much higher than Henderson is going. 

How did CJ Anderson do as a COP with Gurley?

Point is, you can be a hot comodity in fantasy and not be a "feature back."

Feature back is a loose term for FF. Could Henderson have some value? Sure (moreso in PPR).

Will he be worth the price many are paying? That's a big fat no, IMO. Henderson is highly unlikely to ever be a long-term feature back given his skill set.

That said, I get trying to cuff him to Gurley for the right price. The weak class makes it easier to do that without sacrificing a lot of value.

Edited by Football Jones

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I thought it might be interesting to share my league draft from a couple weeks ago where I drafted Henderson at pick 3.07. I didn't own Gurley but his owner made 4 picks prior to me taking him at 3.07. He drafted DK Metcalf(1.03), Bryce Love(2.03), Justice Hill(2.05), and Clelin Ferrell(3.03) before I took him. It's just a snapshot of one league but the Gurley owner here didn't put a priority on having Henderson.

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28 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Feature back is a loose term for FF. Could Henderson have some value? Sure (moreso in PPR).

Will he be worth the price many are paying? That's a big fat no, IMO. Henderson is highly unlikely to ever be a long-term feature back given his skill set.

That said, I get trying to cuff him to Gurley for the right price. The weak class makes it easier to do that without sacrificing a lot of value.

You didnt answer any of my questions.

Do you think Sony Michel is worth 1.1? because according to dynasty trade calculator, that's the price it takes to land him. And his owners paid a higher price than most Henderson owners (pick 1.2-1.4 depending on your league) 

IMO Sony Michel is in a greater timeshare situation than Henderson, and I'd argue Henderson has a higher ceiling. 

Point, again, is that you dont need to be a "long term feature back" by football Jones' standards to be a legitimate fantasy threat

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

You didnt answer any of my questions.

Do you think Sony Michel is worth 1.1? because according to dynasty trade calculator, that's the price it takes to land him. And his owners paid a higher price than most Henderson owners (pick 1.2-1.4 depending on your league) 

IMO Sony Michel is in a greater timeshare situation than Henderson, and I'd argue Henderson has a higher ceiling. 

Point, again, is that you dont need to be a "long term feature back" by football Jones' standards to be a legitimate fantasy threat

LOL. Yes, I like Michel a LOT more than Henderson. Not even close.

What I'm essentially telling you is Henderson won't be a long-term feature back OR be worth what many people are drafting him at.

Also, Henderson has a MUCH lower ceiling than Sony, IMO. Sony has feature back skills, thus, has the potential to be a long-term feature back.

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15 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

LOL. Yes, I like Michel a LOT more than Henderson. Not even close.

What I'm essentially telling you is Henderson won't be a long-term feature back OR be worth what many people are drafting him at.

Also, Henderson has a MUCH lower ceiling than Sony, IMO. Sony has feature back skills, thus, has the potential to be a long-term feature back.

Most everyone in the 1st round of this draft isnt worth where they are being drafted at.

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18 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

LOL. Yes, I like Michel a LOT more than Henderson. Not even close.

What I'm essentially telling you is Henderson won't be a long-term feature back OR be worth what many people are drafting him at.

Also, Henderson has a MUCH lower ceiling than Sony, IMO. Sony has feature back skills, thus, has the potential to be a long-term feature back.

Ok, so we are back to your subjective methods, nothing objective. That clarifies it.

To summarize: I was talking Objectively by demonstrating several examples of guys who arent featured backs, but have shown to be very valuable in fantasy. Its relevant here because there doesnt seem to be a reason, as far as opportunity goes, why Henderson cant be like them. You were countering with a Subjective opinion that Henderson doesn't fit your mythological formula so he cant be valuable. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Ok, so we are back to your subjective methods, nothing objective. That clarifies it.

To summarize: I was talking Objectively by demonstrating several examples of guys who arent featured backs, but have shown to be very valuable in fantasy, and there doesnt seem to be a reason, as far as opportunity goes, why Henderson cant be that. You were countering with a Subjective opinion that Henderson doesn't fit your mythological formula so he cant be valuable. 

Come on, Dan. LOL. My "subjective formula" is mostly me not liking Henderson at anywhere near his ADP. Also, YOU are subjectively comparing Henderson to Sony (a RB who has already produced). Evaluating players is subjective, period.

And how is Sony not a feature back by FF standards? He is. It's purely semantics.

Bottom line is I'm confident in my evaluation. To be fairly specific, Henderson could have decent FF value depending on several factors (Gurley's availability, format, etc.), but he won't be a long-term "feature back/high usage/stud" RB or whatever you want to call it. Henderson's FF ceiling is limited, IMO. He could very well be a better NFL player than FF asset (long-term).

Edited by Football Jones

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8 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Most everyone in the 1st round of this draft isnt worth where they are being drafted at.

Which, if true, means they're all worth where they're being drafted. If nobody is special then everybody is special. Other than to say I'd rather flip them for 2020 picks. And may still. But I was not able to achieve that leading up to or during this year's rookie draft. So if nobody is worth the pick, and if the pick can't be moved, then I suppose it comes down to a personal BPA decision. I am admittedly more on the "drafting for team needs" end of the spectrum, so reaching for a coveted RB seems normal to me, but I do think there is a threshold between reaching too far and losing value by not picking someone that is more chalk. Like Hockenson perhaps. 

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1 minute ago, Football Jones said:

Come on, Dan. LOL. My "subjective formula" is mostly me not liking Henderson at anywhere near his ADP. Also, YOU are subjectively comparing Henderson to Sony (a RB who has already produced). Evaluating players is subjective, period.

And how is Sony not a feature back by FF standards? He is. You're trying to get into semantics.

Bottom line is I'm confident in my evaluation. To be fairly specific, Henderson could have decent FF value depending on several factors (Gurley's availability, format, etc.), but he won't be a long-term "feature back/high usage" RB or whatever you want to call it. Henderson's FF ceiling is limited, IMO. He could very well be a better NFL player than FF asset (long-term).

Sony shares time with James White, and presumably now with Harris. There are more mouths to feed in NE than LA. 

If Sony Michel shares the backfield with 3 other RBs his entire career, hes not a featured back, no matter how much "potential" he has to be one. IMO, side bar, Michels knee is worse than Gurleys and NE is hedging their bet at RB with Harris. 

I pull his name out because he would cost the 1.1 in this draft to trade for. That's a bigger investment than Henderson with more mouths to feed and legitimate knee concerns. Yet that's worth the price I guess 

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

Sony shares time with James White, and presumably now with Harris. There are more mouths to feed in NE than LA. 

If Sony Michel shares the backfield with 3 other RBs his entire career, hes not a featured back, no matter how much "potential" he has to be one. IMO, side bar, Michels knee is worse than Gurleys and NE is hedging their bet at RB with Harris. 

I pull his name out because he would cost the 1.1 in this draft to trade for. That's a bigger investment than Henderson with more mouths to feed and legitimate knee concerns. Yet that's worth the price I guess 

I think most people prefer Sony by quite a bit, but I digress.

Like I said earlier, Henderson is interesting to me because of the difference in my valuation compared to the general FF community.

Time will tell...

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I absolutely agree Henderson's upside is capped. By Gurley. Who I have very little faith in with regards to his health. So in a world where Gurley degenerates, Henderson's upside is sky high. But picking him is very much a lottery ticket in that sense. I don't know that the lottery nature of choosing one of 8 other WRs as a different strategy is really that different, though. Unless you love the guy and the spot, I suppose. For me the tiebreaker went to the RB. Who I had ranked #1 originally. 

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Just now, Football Jones said:

I think most people prefer Sony by quite a bit, but I digress.

 

Those guys are making a huge mistake. Sony has a very short career ahead of him, or a long career as a 8-10 carry a game guy. But maybe that's saved for the Michel thread if anyone cares to hear what I have to say regarding his knee. Just see Jay Ajayi, and that's Michels ceiling IMO, largely due to his knee. Talent alone he had big potential

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Those guys are making a huge mistake. Sony has a very short career ahead of him, or a long career as a 8-10 carry a game guy. But maybe that's saved for the Michel thread if anyone cares to hear what I have to say regarding his knee. Just see Jay Ajayi, and that's Michels ceiling IMO, largely due to his knee. Talent alone he had big potential

For me, even with the knee concern, Sony's potential to be a long-term feature back overrides Henderson's limited ceiling.

Some of it is simply my general strategy of not targeting COP-types unless it's outstanding value (like taking a flier on Boobie Williams).

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Those guys are making a huge mistake. Sony has a very short career ahead of him, or a long career as a 8-10 carry a game guy. But maybe that's saved for the Michel thread if anyone cares to hear what I have to say regarding his knee. Just see Jay Ajayi, and that's Michels ceiling IMO, largely due to his knee. Talent alone he had big potential

BTW, what kind of info you got on Sony's knee?

I don't own him, but would like to hear what you have to say.

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23 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Which, if true, means they're all worth where they're being drafted. If nobody is special then everybody is special. Other than to say I'd rather flip them for 2020 picks. And may still. But I was not able to achieve that leading up to or during this year's rookie draft. So if nobody is worth the pick, and if the pick can't be moved, then I suppose it comes down to a personal BPA decision. I am admittedly more on the "drafting for team needs" end of the spectrum, so reaching for a coveted RB seems normal to me, but I do think there is a threshold between reaching too far and losing value by not picking someone that is more chalk. Like Hockenson perhaps. 

Correct.  But I think very few people are talking about taking Henderson over the top 5-6 in this draft.

There may be a couple outliers who would take him at #1, but a couple outliers shouldn't drive the discussion.

He is a mid-late 1st in ADP in an uninspiring draft class.  No idea how people think that is being overdrafted.

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4 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:

He averaged 8.9 ypc for two years straight. His career was a highlight video.

Correct.  

 

At least one other person in this forum has watched Henderson in college.  

 

A whole lotta wrong in this thread. 

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6 minutes ago, Raptors409 said:

A good comparison popped in my head. His skillset reminds me a lot of Tevin Coleman.

 

Agree, disagree?

why do you say this

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Correct.  

At least one other person in this forum has watched Henderson in college.  

A whole lotta wrong in this thread. 

Whole lotta myopic analysis in this thread. Devery wouldn't be even close to the first college RB with gaudy YPC to do little or nothing in the NFL, if he were to bust.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/rush-yds-per-att-player-career.html

He has nice (but perhaps not great) speed, runs tough and most importantly McVay, but his tape shows a fairly limited skillset overall and a smallish frame.

Here's another guy with a similar skillset, but with a larger frame: Darren McFadden. DMC's body broke down b/c of lack of lateral ellusiveness in the pros. I highly suspect a similar path for Douglas, but with some nice early career moments in that Rams offense.

He'll break some big runs in that environment, no doubt, but it's fairly questionable to crown him the next big thing just because he broke long runs against ACC defenses.

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Probably old news that people here have heard before but was listening to NFL Live earlier today and Shefter said that the Rams had him pegged as their top RB in the draft.  I believe it and only think they passed in him late round 2 because they had a first round grade on Rapp. Very similar to Saints when they got Kamara after passing on him in round 2 for a player they just had a higher grade on.

 McVay is not bullet proof. His first draft pick was Gerald Everett and results on that are mixed, sure not looking like his new Jordan Reed yet. So yes he can make a mistake and I think  NFL decision makers should be questioned, fantasy owners should not be in lock step with them. But Mcvay has earned the benefit of the doubt from and and sure it helps me that I liked Henderson before the draft. But for me when I hear people here talk about his lack of juke moves or upright running style I kind of roll my eyes because I just think McVay knows what he wants out of a RB to be successful in his system more then we do.

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

Does Henderson have tiny chicken legs like mcfadden?

No, but Kerryon does and I still like him a lot but I'm also worried he can stay healthy.

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I totally don't understand the "lack of ceiling" talk. Is Kamara not a high ceiling? What am I missing?

You can sell me on low floor as a cop back...

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5 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I totally don't understand the "lack of ceiling" talk. Is Kamara not a high ceiling? What am I missing?

You can sell me on low floor as a cop back...

It makes no sense.

He has one of the highest ceilings in all of ff.

 

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1 hour ago, Raptors409 said:

A good comparison popped in my head. His skillset reminds me a lot of Tevin Coleman.

 

Agree, disagree?

Henderson is...

More powerful

Lower center of gravity

Better vision 

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Henderson is light years away from Kamara. He’s not even a poor man’s Kamara.

The Rams want to install some things that Kamara does for the Saints, but that’s not a surprise in today’s NFL. Dallas wants to do some Kamara-like stuff with Pollard (who also had a gaudy YPC for Memphis).

I don’t dislike Henderson as much as I’m surprised by how much love he’s receiving as far as upside.

Edited by Football Jones
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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

why do you say this

Both their best attributes are their acceleration and straightline speed. You want to get both guys around the corner.

Think the Dalvin Cook comparison is a good one too.

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Does Henderson have tiny chicken legs like mcfadden?

No. I didn't compare their body types, I compared their running styles. DMC was straight-line fast with upright, stiff lateral moves. Like Donald, he made the most of his strengths despite his limitations, thanks to good vision, feel and toughness, but the last part did him in as he regularly trucked defenders in the NFL, when it became apparent he couldn't slip tackles as easily in the NFL as he did at Arkansas.

DMC played on worse teams than Demario will, but he was also 220 lbs with timed 4.33 speed. What did Henderson run again (officially)?

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

It's great that people could find clips of a couple plays where he makes a juke. If these demonstrate his best moves though, I still question his lateral agility. At least I wouldn't call it one of his strengths. I'm not the only one either, so not sure what's so controversial about it. 

It's never more apparent than when seeing Miles Sanders make a cut compared to Henderson. Pretty blatant imo. 

Edited by cloppbeast

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The lateral cuts of players like Sanders (and Singletary and Montgomery) seem to me far sharper and more violent than Henderson's. Its Henderson's similar style to Dalvin Cook that explains the great college success they both enjoyed. Both kind of veer and accelerate right by a guy where Sanders (or so many others) cut more laterally around the defender. The wide cutters create a wider gap between themselves and the defender, but have to regain their flow. Cook and Henderson veer just at the moment they approach a defender, pausing him and maintaining their power line while accelerating past before the defender can balance and grab them. Its a different skill and if you are looking for one and getting the other, I think you tend to underappreciate these guys' talent. 

9 yards per carry, (almost 2 full yards every single carry more than any other college RB with 200 carries in 2018) doesn't happen by chance. Doing that 2 years in a row ... says its a real talent he possesses. If he is Dalvin2 (despite the other differences) with that almost unique style, I don't see why Cook numbers in a far better offense, and without the injuries, aren't well within Henderson's ceiling. Lots of reasons he might not get there, like Gurley staying fairly healthy, but I don't think not cutting as wide laterally as Sanders or Singletary is one of them.

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So wait, he's got healthy Cook upside now?  Third rb in the 2017 draft, after Fournette who was supposed to be the next big thing and CMC the ppr monster, that Cook?  Who's been great when he was healthy?

Damn hate to have him.

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26 minutes ago, Catbird said:

Lots of reasons he might not get there, like Gurley staying fairly healthy, but I don't think not cutting as wide laterally as Sanders or Singletary is one of them.

You make good points. Henderson doesnt need to have great lateral movements to be a good NFL running back. He still gets around defenders and makes it look a lot easier than Miles Sanders.

Agility is not a luxury though. Saquon wouldnt be the same player if he couldnt make ridiculous cuts. 

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7 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

It's great that people could find clips of a couple plays where he makes a juke. If these demonstrate his best moves though, I still question his lateral agility. At least I wouldn't call it one of his strengths. I'm not the only one either, so not sure what's so controversial about it. 

It's never more apparent than when seeing Miles Sanders make a cut compared to Henderson. Pretty blatant imo. 

well, dont make odd claims like "he cant juke" knowing theres likely at least 1 clip of him making a juke. 

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10 hours ago, Football Jones said:

Henderson is light years away from Kamara. He’s not even a poor man’s Kamara.

The Rams want to install some things that Kamara does for the Saints, but that’s not a surprise in today’s NFL. Dallas wants to do some Kamara-like stuff with Pollard (who also had a gaudy YPC for Memphis).

I don’t dislike Henderson as much as I’m surprised by how much love he’s receiving as far as upside.

You do realize Henderson was split out wide 20% of his snaps as a receiver right? I’m surprised you even have the audacity to act surprised about things you know nothing about.

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6 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

So wait, he's got healthy Cook upside now?  Third rb in the 2017 draft, after Fournette who was supposed to be the next big thing and CMC the ppr monster, that Cook?  Who's been great when he was healthy?

Damn hate to have him.

His running style is very similar to Cook

IMO his upside is beyond Cook's. His floor is obviously pretty low, but his upside is tremendous. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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22 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

well, dont make odd claims like "he cant juke" knowing theres likely at least 1 clip of him making a juke. 

Forest for the trees.

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