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Dr. Dan

Darrell Henderson - LA Rams

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Yahoo Sports' Eric Edholm projects Memphis RB Darrell Henderson to Round 3 or Round 4.

It's hard to predict where running backs will be drafted since the perceived positional value of running backs has decreased, but this range feels right for Henderson. Only Alabama's Josh Jacobs is considered to have any Round 1 equity, but there could be a Day 2 run on running backs and Henderson (5'8/208) will be in the mix. At Memphis, Henderson averaged 8.9 yards per carry in two straight seasons, but he may be primarily used as a receiving back in the NFL.

SOURCE: Yahoo Sports

Mar 18, 2019, 7:24 PM

 

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On 3/11/2019 at 3:57 PM, Dr. Dan said:

one of my picks is 1.7. I dont want to use one of my premium picks on him. 1.7 is about right based on other mocks. I figure at least 4 wrs and 1 rb should go before Henderson in my draft. I'm hoping Montgomery or Sanders are the 2nd RBS taken in the NFL draft. Or that Hockenson starts to climb rookie draft boards.

I may be getting my Dr.’s confused, but I thought you were considering Hockenson with the 1.07 or 2.01. Am I misremembering?

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5 hours ago, kutta said:

I may be getting my Dr.’s confused, but I thought you were considering Hockenson with the 1.07 or 2.01. Am I misremembering?

I am keeping my options open at 1.7. I see hockenson as a good NFL te bit I'm not sure hes that much better fantasy te than someone that goes much later in the draft. 1st round is premium... I'm going to save that pick for rbs or wrs I think. but I wont rule anything out! :)

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9 hours ago, Faust said:

Quote

Yahoo Sports' Eric Edholm projects Memphis RB Darrell Henderson to Round 3 or Round 4.

It's hard to predict where running backs will be drafted since the perceived positional value of running backs has decreased, but this range feels right for Henderson. Only Alabama's Josh Jacobs is considered to have any Round 1 equity, but there could be a Day 2 run on running backs and Henderson (5'8/208) will be in the mix. At Memphis, Henderson averaged 8.9 yards per carry in two straight seasons, but he may be primarily used as a receiving back in the NFL.

SOURCE: Yahoo Sports

Mar 18, 2019, 7:24 PM

...and the bold part is what we're worried about.  If true I think his value has to drop.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

...and the bold part is what we're worried about.  If true I think his value has to drop.

“Receiving back” is a much higher floor than “grinder” or “goal line back”. Targets are worth 2.5x more than a carry in PPR. About 1.5x in standard. If receiving back is a floor it is a more valuable floor than 2 down between the tackles back. 

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14 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

“Receiving back” is a much higher floor than “grinder” or “goal line back”. Targets are worth 2.5x more than a carry in PPR. About 1.5x in standard. If receiving back is a floor it is a more valuable floor than 2 down between the tackles back. 

In a PPR league I agree with you.  However, if they turn into the type of back that is only on the field on 3rd down, in my mind that doesn't deserve a 1st rd pick wasted on it.

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19 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

In a PPR league I agree with you.  However, if they turn into the type of back that is only on the field on 3rd down, in my mind that doesn't deserve a 1st rd pick wasted on it.

I don’t think anyone would disagree but this whole class is there at this point. I think Josh Jacobs (which IMO is unjustified) is the only back likely to go round 1 depending on his workout today. Everyone else is going to be very, very situation dependent. And while I like backs in this class I will be targetting these WR’s/TE’s in round 1 this year and will likely not roster many of them unless they slip.

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18 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

I don’t think anyone would disagree but this whole class is there at this point. I think Josh Jacobs (which IMO is unjustified) is the only back likely to go round 1 depending on his workout today. Everyone else is going to be very, very situation dependent. And while I like backs in this class I will be targetting these WR’s/TE’s in round 1 this year and will likely not roster many of them unless they slip.

I agree that this class isn't very good.  I think Josh Jacobs is the exception.  I doubt I'll be drafting any RB in Rd 1 not named Jacobs.  In one devy league, where most of the current prospects are already on rosters, might be the one exception but I still probably won't.

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4 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

...and the bold part is what we're worried about.  If true I think his value has to drop.

Oh come on.

This Cosell the dinosaurs opinion. It really shouldn't surprise you.

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21 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Oh come on.

This Cosell the dinosaurs opinion. It really shouldn't surprise you.

How many RBs need to be successful at 200-210 before people wake up and realize this isn't "too small"?

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58 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

How many RBs need to be successful at 200-210 before people wake up and realize this isn't "too small"?

How many are we at so far?

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

How many RBs need to be successful at 200-210 before people wake up and realize this isn't "too small"?

Help me with point of reference by naming a few.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

How many RBs need to be successful at 200-210 before people wake up and realize this isn't "too small"?

yes this size factor has been shown to be a complete hoax. 

Phillip Lindsay was thought of as a 3rd down RB only, getting passes only so not a fantasy relevant volume, and too small for the NFL.

I dont know how anyone can make these same claims, a year after his breakout, on another RB (who is way better than Lindsay) with a straight face

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

yes this size factor has been shown to be a complete hoax. 

Phillip Lindsay was thought of as a 3rd down RB only, getting passes only so not a fantasy relevant volume, and too small for the NFL.

I dont know how anyone can make these same claims, a year after his breakout, on another RB (who is way better than Lindsay) with a straight face

How many RBs under 200 lbs are starting RBs in the league right now?

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Help me with point of reference by naming a few.

Aaron Jones, Maurice Jones Drew, some guy name Barry Sanders, christian McCaffery, dalvin cook, kerryon Johnson, Marlon mack

Guys even smaller: tarik Cohen, phillip lindsay

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Aaron Jones, Maurice Jones Drew, some guy name Barry Sanders, christian McCaffery, dalvin cook, kerryon Johnson, Marlon mack

Guys even smaller: tarik Cohen, phillip lindsay

I didn't mean all-time, I meant how many under 200lbs right now.   Aaron Jones is listed at 208 lbs.  He's 5'9' and compact.   McCaffrey is 205 lbs, but he's the best example.  Mack is 210 lbs, Johnson is 206 lbs.   Just not too many as far as I know and the ones that are I'm sure NFL teams would rather match them with another back in a 50/50 split.  Octupus made it sound like they were a dime a dozen.

Edited by JohnnyU

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

I didn't mean all-time, I meant how many under 200lbs right now.   Aaron Jones is listed at 208 lbs.  He's 5'9' and compact.  

see below

1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

How many RBs need to be successful at 200-210 before people wake up and realize this isn't "too small"?

 

51 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

How many are we at so far?

 

3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Aaron Jones, Maurice Jones Drew, some guy name Barry Sanders, christian McCaffery, dalvin cook, kerryon Johnson, Marlon mack

Guys even smaller: tarik Cohen, phillip lindsay

 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

see below

 

 

 

Cohen isn't a feature back.  Lindsey is the only one under 200 lbs and playing now that has been listed.  Henderson weighed in at 208 lbs, so he could definitely be as successful as those listed over 200 lbs.  I thought he was lighter than that.

Edited by JohnnyU

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3 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Cohen isn't a feature back.  Lindsey is the only one under 200 lbs and playing now that has been listed.

sigh... you didn't read. I was referencing tangfoots question of how many successful backs there are, and a few have beens, at 200-210. No one here is talking about sub 200. Henderson is not sub 200

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

sigh... you didn't read. I was referencing tangfoots question of how many successful backs there are, and a few have beens, at 200-210. No one here is talking about sub 200. Henderson is not sub 200

OK, if you're talking about backs between 200 and 210 lbs, then yes, Henderson definitely falls within that range and could be successful.  It's not the optimal size however.  I don't think most  NFL teams want backs under 210 lbs being a workhorse back and would rather thunder and lightening them in a 50/50 split.  That is not good for fantasy.  Note that I didn't say all NFL teams.

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34 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Help me with point of reference by naming a few.

Seriously?

Just off the top of my head: Tiki Barber, Lesean McCoy, Jamal Charles, Maurice Jones Drew, Ray Rice, Clinton Portis, Philip Lindsay, Brian Westbrooks, Priest Holmes, Christian McCafrrey, Chris Johnson.... that took me ten seconds if you need more I'll put some more thought into it.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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20 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I didn't mean all-time, I meant how many under 200lbs right now.   Aaron Jones is listed at 208 lbs.  He's 5'9' and compact.   McCaffrey is 205 lbs, but he's the best example.  Mack is 210 lbs, Johnson is 206 lbs.   Just not too many as far as I know and the ones that are I'm sure NFL teams would rather match them with another back in a 50/50 split.  Octupus made it sound like they were a dime a dozen.

They are. You're on this board often I can't believe I even need to list RBs around 205 pounds.

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

They are. You're on this board often I can't believe I even need to list RBs around 205 pounds.

I stand corrected then.  How many are getting a 70/30 share like the other bscks we consider workhorse backs?  

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

I stand corrected then.  How many are getting a 70/30 share like the other bscks we consider workhorse backs?  

every one I listed? I feel like maybe I'm being trolled here. You can't follow the NFL and have 17,000 posts on this board and still think a 205 pound RB is too small.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

every one I listed? I feel like maybe I'm being trolled here. You can't follow the NFL and have 17,000 posts on this board and still think a 205 pound RB is too small.

Actually when first started posting on the subject I was referring to backs under 200 lbs or right at it.  The profile I read on Henderson had him right at 200 lbs but since found he weighed 208 lbs at the combine, which bodes better for him than I initially thought.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Actually when first started posting on the subject I was referring to backs under 200 lbs or right at it.  The profile I read on Henderson had him right at 200 lbs but since found he weighed 208 lbs at the combine, which bodes better for him than I initially thought.

My first post you responded to said "...backs at 200-210". Why would anyone be discussing backs under 200 pounds as that does not apply to Henderson and of course that's more rare.

It's rare for almost every position in football but punter, kicker and CB - and even that's starting to change.

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if 5'9 208 is compact, what is 5'8 208 considered? 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

if 5'9 208 is compact, what is 5'8 208 considered? 

Again, for the third time, the profile I initially read on Henderson had him at 200 lbs.  I now know the combine has him at 208.  Compact or not is a visul thing, not a numbers thing

Edited by JohnnyU

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

yes this size factor has been shown to be a complete hoax. 

Phillip Lindsay was thought of as a 3rd down RB only, getting passes only so not a fantasy relevant volume, and too small for the NFL.

I dont know how anyone can make these same claims, a year after his breakout, on another RB (who is way better than Lindsay) with a straight face

He's been doing it for decades. It's like muscle memory.

He actually thought Dion Lewis was going to play more than Henry. About the only time I have seen him deviate from this narrative.

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Again, for the third time, the profile I initially read on Henderson had him at 200 lbs.  I now know the combine has him at 208.  Compact or not is a visul thing, not a numbers thing

even if Henderson is 200... 

5'8 200 = 30.4 bmi

5'9 208 = 30.7 bmi

is 0.3 really the difference between a guy can play vs hes too small?

That's 2 pounds. Could be the difference of a large meal and the timing of his latest BM

Edited by Dr. Dan
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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

even if Henderson is 200... 

5'8 200 = 30.4 bmi

5'9 208 = 30.7 bmi

is 0.3 really the difference between a guy can play vs hes too small?

Ill defer to EBF, he's the resident BMI expert.

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22 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

I’ll be very curious to hear about his pro-day. If he posts really solid agility drills his value could jump up a good bit IMO

Me too. Really like Henderson’s tape.

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23 hours ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

his value could jump up a good bit IMO

hoping not

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He’s going to go late first I think if he lands in a spot without an established stud RB

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On 3/20/2019 at 10:41 AM, JohnnyU said:

Help me with point of reference by naming a few.

Maurice Jones Drew, Curtis Martin, Lesean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ray Rice, Tiki Barber, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Christian McCaffrey, Clinton Portis, Devonta Freeman, DeAngelo Henderson.

All under 210 at the draft.

ETA:  HIPPLING!

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz
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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

He’s going to go late first I think if he lands in a spot without an established stud RB

that would be awesome. I petition we lock this thread until rookie drafts are completed!

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5 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Maurice Jones Drew, Curtis Martin, Lesean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ray Rice, Tiki Barber, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Christian McCaffrey, Clinton Portis, Devonta Freeman, DeAngelo Henderson.

All under 210 at the draft.

ETA:  HIPPLING!

Warrick Dunn - 176 lbs

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5 hours ago, Gandalf said:

He’s going to go late first I think if he lands in a spot without an established stud RB

If the bolded happens and he hears his name called before end of round two I have to think in this draft he's more likely to be a top 5 pick.

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6 minutes ago, menobrown said:

If the bolded happens and he hears his name called before end of round two I have to think in this draft he's more likely to be a top 5 pick.

I agree completely actually

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

If the bolded happens and he hears his name called before end of round two I have to think in this draft he's more likely to be a top 5 pick.

I disagree actually. I see him going 6-8 at best. But I also dont think he is drafted until round 3. I think Jacobs, Sanders, Singletary, and maybe even Montgomery go before him

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I disagree actually. I see him going 6-8 at best. But I also dont think he is drafted until round 3. I think Jacobs, Sanders, Singletary, and maybe even Montgomery go before him

I think this ^^^ is more likely but if he goes day 2 to a team in need he would vault up the rankings. I could see someone in need of RB rolling the dice top 5. 

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3 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

I think this ^^^ is more likely but if he goes day 2 to a team in need he would vault up the rankings. I could see someone in need of RB rolling the dice top 5. 

IMO the only way he is top 5 is if he is the 1st rb taken. 

Metcalf, Harry, Brown, Butler, Harmon Brown, could all be top 5 easy. Jacobs is likely the 1st rb taken in the draft, and he should be top 5. 

If someone is taking Henderson top 5, they are reaching/in need of a rb and passing up some amazing wr talent. 

Even if he is rb2 in the draft, I find it hard to see him going ahead of Butler and Harmon in rookie drafts... But things can get crazy. 

I'm sitting at 1.9 in one league and I expect him to be there. if not I'll have some awesome talent dropping to me

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On 3/23/2019 at 8:49 AM, Gandalf said:

He’s going to go late first I think if he lands in a spot without an established stud RB

I can't see any of these RBs going late first if they land in a favorable situation, because most probably won't.

Edited by tkrull

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1 hour ago, tkrull said:

I can't see any of these RBs going late first if they land in a favorable situation, because most probably won't.

Almost any of the RBs that lands in a place without a clear starter is likely to go top 5 or 6 at worst - that’s just the way rookie drafts tend to go.

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20 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Almost any of the RBs that lands in a place without a clear starter is likely to go top 5 or 6 at worst - that’s just the way rookie drafts tend to go.

Exactly 100% correct

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Almost any of the RBs that lands in a place without a clear starter is likely to go top 5 or 6 at worst - that’s just the way rookie drafts tend to go.

true. I just think there is much better wr talent than RB talent. I'd be thrilled if Harmon falls to pick 7. or even Butler. while Henderson is an intriguing rookie, he has some questionmarks, more than some of these wrs do. Even some of these RBs. If Sanders is drafted by Buffalo and Henderson is drafted by Oakland, I'm probably taking Sanders even though he has to sit for a season. 

Unless one of these guys goes to a team like the Rams, Bengals, Jets, or another team with a young stud RB I'm sticking with my rankings when it comes to drafting. I'd be thrilled if someone bought on a lower ranked rb because of his 2019 situation.This draft will be loaded with backs who in 2-3 seasons are going to be incredibly more valuable than they are today. 

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