Biabreakable
Footballguy
I can see both sides of this story.
When I make rookie rankings, I do so with the idea in mind of the players upside target over the first 3 years of their careers.
The reason it isn't a ranking for only the players first season is because a lot of the time players will not perform that well as rookies. Sometimes it takes them a year of development before they get a chance to shine. This could be due to injury, strength and conditioning progream, technique such as blocking, reading the blitz and knowing their assignments, entrenched starter on the depth chart ahead of them or sometimes it is ancillary things affecting the player such as their QB being injured or having multiple injuries to their offensive line.
All of that is meant to say that one season is not enough to fully judge the player.
Now I do think the rookies who perform right away should get a leg up on players who didn't. Most of the time the players who perform well right away continue to perform well for their careers. The players who don't still could, but there is still uncertainty, not just for that players specific situation turning in their favor, but also a question about the players talent, maybe the previous evaluations of the players talent were wrong. How they perform is how we test that.
In a vacuum I have Henderson as a tier one RB which means I expect him to be able to perform near a top 12 RB within his first 3 seasons in the league. Looking at the situation I see that Todd Gurley is entrenched as the starter and without an injury or something else that removes Gurley from the situation his upside is only a RB two.
So no I am not giving up on Henderson still possibly being a hit in the near future, I believe he is a very talented player and I think he can shine if given the opportunity. That said his first season didn't go as well as I had hoped it would.
Gurley seems fine despite all the talk about his knee and injury risk.
The Rams still used Malcolm Brown over Henderson. This is a larger concern to me than Gurley actually, because I think this invalidates my view of Henderson being a tier one RB. If Henderson were, then he should have beat out Brown.
Putting it all together my outlook on Henderson has taken a hit based on how the season played out and downgrading Henderson to a tier two type of value seems reasonable under the circumstances, even though I do think his upside could be higher than that.
When I make rookie rankings, I do so with the idea in mind of the players upside target over the first 3 years of their careers.
The reason it isn't a ranking for only the players first season is because a lot of the time players will not perform that well as rookies. Sometimes it takes them a year of development before they get a chance to shine. This could be due to injury, strength and conditioning progream, technique such as blocking, reading the blitz and knowing their assignments, entrenched starter on the depth chart ahead of them or sometimes it is ancillary things affecting the player such as their QB being injured or having multiple injuries to their offensive line.
All of that is meant to say that one season is not enough to fully judge the player.
Now I do think the rookies who perform right away should get a leg up on players who didn't. Most of the time the players who perform well right away continue to perform well for their careers. The players who don't still could, but there is still uncertainty, not just for that players specific situation turning in their favor, but also a question about the players talent, maybe the previous evaluations of the players talent were wrong. How they perform is how we test that.
In a vacuum I have Henderson as a tier one RB which means I expect him to be able to perform near a top 12 RB within his first 3 seasons in the league. Looking at the situation I see that Todd Gurley is entrenched as the starter and without an injury or something else that removes Gurley from the situation his upside is only a RB two.
So no I am not giving up on Henderson still possibly being a hit in the near future, I believe he is a very talented player and I think he can shine if given the opportunity. That said his first season didn't go as well as I had hoped it would.
Gurley seems fine despite all the talk about his knee and injury risk.
The Rams still used Malcolm Brown over Henderson. This is a larger concern to me than Gurley actually, because I think this invalidates my view of Henderson being a tier one RB. If Henderson were, then he should have beat out Brown.
Putting it all together my outlook on Henderson has taken a hit based on how the season played out and downgrading Henderson to a tier two type of value seems reasonable under the circumstances, even though I do think his upside could be higher than that.
