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Dr. Dan

Darrell Henderson - LA Rams

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

true. I just think there is much better wr talent than RB talent. I'd be thrilled if Harmon falls to pick 7. or even Butler. while Henderson is an intriguing rookie, he has some questionmarks, more than some of these wrs do. Even some of these RBs. If Sanders is drafted by Buffalo and Henderson is drafted by Oakland, I'm probably taking Sanders even though he has to sit for a season. 

What are these question marks you are talking about? As in plural?

Some people do not think he is big enough. That is the only flaw I can find.

Butler has issues with drops.Harmon didn't test very well at the combine (average athleticism).

I like Butler and Harmon a lot too, I just disagree with your statement that there are more question marks about Henderson than there are about these other players.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

What are these question marks you are talking about? As in plural?

Some people do not think he is big enough. That is the only flaw I can find.

Butler has issues with drops.Harmon didn't test very well at the combine (average athleticism).

I like Butler and Harmon a lot too, I just disagree with your statement that there are more question marks about Henderson than there are about these other players.

His size is the biggest physical questionmark, but many draft scouts have labeled him as a change of pace back

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

His size is the biggest physical questionmark, but many draft scouts have labeled him as a change of pace back

That is not a second question mark. They say that because of his size.

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While I do like Henderson, I am somewhat concerned that the scouting world does not share this opinion, or does not seem to. 

Some of the very recent mocks have Henderson rb4 or worse. One left him off completely a 3 round mock. 

So while on paper, film, and on the stat sheet Henderson looks like a pretty good RB, the collective scouts and media types are mocking him pretty late. RBs mocked ahead of him rather consistently: Jacobs, Sanders, Montgomery, Singletary, Hill. I've even seen names I vaguely recognize. 

This bodes well for those who are looking to not spend a top 6 pick on him, but it's also concerning that he ends up in a situation that is not favorable, even long term. 

If Henderson goes super late (round 4 or later) is there potential for him to fall completely out of the 1st round of rookie drafts? 

 

ETA: Not that draft capital means everything, but it certainly means something. We did see Freeman, in rookie drafts, go ahead of guys taken before him. But if hes RB4 or 5, I find it hard to see him going top 12 in a rookie draft 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

While I do like Henderson, I am somewhat concerned that the scouting world does not share this opinion, or does not seem to. 

Some of the very recent mocks have Henderson rb4 or worse. One left him off completely a 3 round mock. 

So while on paper, film, and on the stat sheet Henderson looks like a pretty good RB, the collective scouts and media types are mocking him pretty late. RBs mocked ahead of him rather consistently: Jacobs, Sanders, Montgomery, Singletary, Hill. I've even seen names I vaguely recognize. 

This bodes well for those who are looking to not spend a top 6 pick on him, but it's also concerning that he ends up in a situation that is not favorable, even long term. 

If Henderson goes super late (round 4 or later) is there potential for him to fall completely out of the 1st round of rookie drafts? 

I would wait til april 27th to form any conclusions. How many times have FF pros or the media been very wrong on a player and the draft. 

Side note - most people would agree it's highly unlikely Singletary goes before Henderson.

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4 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I would wait til april 27th to form any conclusions. How many times have FF pros or the media been very wrong on a player and the draft. 

Side note - most people would agree it's highly unlikely Singletary goes before Henderson.

Yes I agree Just champing at the bit a little. 

I'd be surprised if Singletary went before Henderson. Sanders and Montgomery, sure, I can see why on certain teams. Hill... maybe... 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Yes I agree Just champing at the bit a little. 

I'd be surprised if Singletary went before Henderson. Sanders and Montgomery, sure, I can see why on certain teams. Hill... maybe... 

I would expect Henderson to go before Hill, but I can understand why somebody might like Hill better. Same for Montgomery.

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Not much of a consensus this year on RB's. Don't put a lot of stock of where a RB is ranked/rated right now. It's about being in the right neighborhood right now.  Last year I think after the fact we would all conclude that other then Barkley their was absolutely no consensus with respect to which RB actual NFL teams preferred.

I was actually looking at Dane Bruglers top 100 list this morning and noticed an eye opening unofficial combine measurement from Henderson. His 10 yard split is possibly record breaking and that's kind of a a massive underrated measurements for RB's IMO, honestly deserves every bit of attention as the 40 for RB's. I used to have more data on it but it's hard to come by now but I know from my past research it was a strong indicator of success. 

Brugler only had two players in his top 100 with 10 yard splits under 1.5. Henderson at 1.42 and Metcalf at 1.48. Keeping in mind the 10 yard split is not official. Cynthia Frelund had Metcalf at 1.45 which she said is the fastest 10 yard split she has in a database that goes back to 2003. If Brugler's time on Henderson is correct he beat that. I don't know how else to say this guy has rare elite short area quickness and it's not like he sucked at the 40.

Could not ask for more in terms of production. Tape looks awesome, for sure huge holes but he looks great. Solid build, put out these measurements on a thick 5'8"/208 frame which puts his BMI in the LT/Emmit range. I asked a long time ex-scout if he was a COP or a 15-20 touch RB and he said the later.

Landing spot matters, but he remains in my predraft top 5 OVERALL players.

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The problem with this crop of rookies is there are a good number of guys I like and also REALLY like...but I'm not falling in love with anyone yet.

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As far as where these players are ranked and mocked right now these are just opinions and it depends on what lists your looking at.

I haven't seen a compiled list yet but I have seen Henderson pretty consistently in people's top 5. YMMV.

Edited by Biabreakable
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5 hours ago, menobrown said:

Not much of a consensus this year on RB's. Don't put a lot of stock of where a RB is ranked/rated right now. It's about being in the right neighborhood right now.  Last year I think after the fact we would all conclude that other then Barkley their was absolutely no consensus with respect to which RB actual NFL teams preferred.

I was actually looking at Dane Bruglers top 100 list this morning and noticed an eye opening unofficial combine measurement from Henderson. His 10 yard split is possibly record breaking and that's kind of a a massive underrated measurements for RB's IMO, honestly deserves every bit of attention as the 40 for RB's. I used to have more data on it but it's hard to come by now but I know from my past research it was a strong indicator of success. 

Brugler only had two players in his top 100 with 10 yard splits under 1.5. Henderson at 1.42 and Metcalf at 1.48. Keeping in mind the 10 yard split is not official. Cynthia Frelund had Metcalf at 1.45 which she said is the fastest 10 yard split she has in a database that goes back to 2003. If Brugler's time on Henderson is correct he beat that. I don't know how else to say this guy has rare elite short area quickness and it's not like he sucked at the 40.

Could not ask for more in terms of production. Tape looks awesome, for sure huge holes but he looks great. Solid build, put out these measurements on a thick 5'8"/208 frame which puts his BMI in the LT/Emmit range. I asked a long time ex-scout if he was a COP or a 15-20 touch RB and he said the later.

Landing spot matters, but he remains in my predraft top 5 OVERALL players.

The 10 yard split is consistent with what I saw on the highlights. Just blazing, difference making burst. Could he be similar to MJD?

Now I’m hoping he goes to a place with an established but not elite RB. Would like to get him at 2.10. 

Edited by Gandalf

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52 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

The 10 yard split is consistent with what I saw on the highlights. Just blazing, difference making burst. Could he be similar to MJD?

Now I’m hoping he goes to a place with an established but not elite RB. Would like to get him at 2.10. 

I think it's entirely possible he falls that far, especially considering the te and wr talent in this draft. There are maybe a dozen or so talented wrs in this draft, and then tes that may rise (If NE takes Jace what's-his-face round 2 does he make it into round 1 rookie drafts? probably).

I think there are people here who would value him quite high, and I dont fault them for that, but other boards have him fairly lower. Henderson is in my top 5 for RBs, but I'm not sure where he is overall for me... He might be somewhere around 15 after the NFL draft. Its not that I dont like Henderson (I do, a lot), I just think there is better talent overall if I am drafting best available. I would consider taking 4 tes, 6-7 wrs, 2-3 RBs, and maybe even kyler murray before him. That doesnt mean he lacks potential to out perform most of those guys, I just think about where Henderson would be compared to 2018 or 2020 draft classes and I'm not sure he'd make the round 1 cut. so why spend a mid to high 1 on him- just because the class, in general, is poor? I'd rather load up on top wr talent and then go for a rb next year than reach for a rb now and pass up some real nice talent elsewhere.

For me, I would need him as a rb4... so it's a luxury pick in some ways that I wouldnt mind jumping at... but there are some potential stud wrs and tes available that I may rather have.

Edited by Dr. Dan

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My favorite RB in this draft.  I am with Meno on this one.  He is in my top 5  overall and if the situation is decent I would be happy to grab him at 1.5

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Darrell Henderson needs to be drafted in the 1st 3 rds in the NFL draft in order for me to consider him in the 1st rd of the fantasy rookie draft. Much safer to draft a RB/WR/TE or even elite QB that was drafted in these rds in the 1st rd of your fantasy rookie draft. I would draft Kyler Murray before Darrell Henderson (if he's a 4th/5th rd nfl draft pick). I think draft capital matters the most for the RB position. Reason being, the most likely chance for their contract to be extended happens in these rounds. Look at most recent cases (latavius murray - drafted in the 5th rd), (arian foster - fantasy career lasted 5 yrs), (Jordan Howard- I don't see him staying in CHI- his value will drop once he lands on a new team)

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

The 10 yard split is consistent with what I saw on the highlights. Just blazing, difference making burst. Could he be similar to MJD?

Now I’m hoping he goes to a place with an established but not elite RB. Would like to get him at 2.10. 

A lot of bad angles from safeties. He runs right past them without even needing to make a move. I love the burst, but just wish he had some elusiveness to go with it. The safeties in the NFL will hold their own better than the ones from UCF. 

Edited by cloppbeast

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33 minutes ago, Unwrittenlaw said:

Darrell Henderson needs to be drafted in the 1st 3 rds in the NFL draft in order for me to consider him in the 1st rd of the fantasy rookie draft. Much safer to draft a RB/WR/TE or even elite QB that was drafted in these rds in the 1st rd of your fantasy rookie draft. I would draft Kyler Murray before Darrell Henderson (if he's a 4th/5th rd nfl draft pick). I think draft capital matters the most for the RB position. Reason being, the most likely chance for their contract to be extended happens in these rounds. Look at most recent cases (latavius murray - drafted in the 5th rd), (arian foster - fantasy career lasted 5 yrs), (Jordan Howard- I don't see him staying in CHI- his value will drop once he lands on a new team)

The only way I'd probably consider taking him round one is if he goes within the first 80-96 picks. Late round 3 I'm not too excited and probably pass for a round 1 or 2 WR/TE. 

I do like him a good deal, I just feel like this rb class is an awful lot like 2014: quite loaded at wr and pretty scarce at rb. 

Looking back to 2014... in my fantasy league Sankey went 1.2 and hyde 1.5. Wouldnt those guys rather have drafted OBJ or Adams? hindsight is 20/20 of course but I feel like this draft mirrors 2014 a lot, and I'd rather take a shot at one of these wrs. 

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33 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

The only way I'd probably consider taking him round one is if he goes within the first 80-96 picks. Late round 3 I'm not too excited and probably pass for a round 1 or 2 WR/TE. 

I do like him a good deal, I just feel like this rb class is an awful lot like 2014: quite loaded at wr and pretty scarce at rb. 

Looking back to 2014... in my fantasy league Sankey went 1.2 and hyde 1.5. Wouldnt those guys rather have drafted OBJ or Adams? hindsight is 20/20 of course but I feel like this draft mirrors 2014 a lot, and I'd rather take a shot at one of these wrs. 

I think the 2014 comparison is a stretch.  There were 3 WRs in the top 12 picks in 2014 and there may be none in that range this year.  The first RB will also likely be off the board quite a bit sooner in the NFL draft this year as well.  I think the WRs were a lot better in 2014 and the RBs a lot worse.  Of course there is plenty of hindsight there but I think the draft capital of those guys from 2014 compared to this year will dictate the same.

2013 is probably more similar.  You have an elite athlete but questionable football talent at WR that will go early (Tavon Austin), and then two other WR prospects that went in the late 20's as the only 3 guys taken in the 1st round at WR.  That sounds more similar to what most are projecting this year (Metcalf possibly early, then 2 other guys late round 1).  Then you had a bunch of round 2 guys at RB but two of them ended up being Bell and Lacy who were both pretty good fantasy assets for a while.

The most boring athlete ended up being the best WR of that class (Hopkins) which kind of makes me think of how Harry/AJB I think are likely the best to end up from this class despite the NFL being a lot more excited about Metcalf (Tavon in 2013).

 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think the 2014 comparison is a stretch.  There were 3 WRs in the top 12 picks in 2014 and there may be none in that range this year.  The first RB will also likely be off the board quite a bit sooner in the NFL draft this year as well.  I think the WRs were a lot better in 2014 and the RBs a lot worse.  Of course there is plenty of hindsight there but I think the draft capital of those guys from 2014 compared to this year will dictate the same.

2013 is probably more similar.  You have an elite athlete but questionable football talent at WR that will go early (Tavon Austin), and then two other WR prospects that went in the late 20's as the only 3 guys taken in the 1st round at WR.  That sounds more similar to what most are projecting this year (Metcalf possibly early, then 2 other guys late round 1).  Then you had a bunch of round 2 guys at RB but two of them ended up being Bell and Lacy who were both pretty good fantasy assets for a while.

The most boring athlete ended up being the best WR of that class (Hopkins) which kind of makes me think of how Harry/AJB I think are likely the best to end up from this class despite the NFL being a lot more excited about Metcalf (Tavon in 2013).

 

Yes this is likely a fair comparison

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32 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

The only way I'd probably consider taking him round one is if he goes within the first 80-96 picks. Late round 3 I'm not too excited and probably pass for a round 1 or 2 WR/TE. 

I do like him a good deal, I just feel like this rb class is an awful lot like 2014: quite loaded at wr and pretty scarce at rb. 

 

I agree that when he is drafted matters with respect to using a high first round pick on him. I really view this draft with RB's as similar to the Bell draft where at this time the closest thing to a consensus was probably Lacy. That's a year we had no first round RB's but most drafts of mine Bell or Gio went first. That's last year I can recall the first pick of rookie drafts in my league being a second round pick. I think we got a good shot for the same this year.

Where I sharply disagree with you is that this class is loaded at WR as you have alluded to often. I think it's deep, but so is RB.  Take a look at some fairly respected people's top 50-100 players as examples. Daniel Jeremiah updated top 50  he has 3 WR's in his top 30 but most people here hate one of them(Ridley) and don't really view Marquise Brown as a first round pick either. Other then those two he had Metcalk in his top 30 and only other WR in his top 50 was AJ Brown. That's 4 Wr's in his top 50,   and only one in his top 30 that people really view as a high first round pick. That's not deep. He also has no Harry in his top 50, someone that some view as their top WR.

Dane Brugler recently put out his top 100. He's got one single WR in his top 30, Metcalf at 23. His #2 WR is at #32 and again that is Marquise Brown who I don't think anyone is super jacked about spending a first round pick on right now ,at least not a high one. Harry is his #6WR and not in DJ's top 50 as I alluded to and I'm not saying that to single out Harry but saying it to use as similar example you used on Henderson earlier when you said some people don't even have in him in their top 4 but yet for some he is in their mix right now for 1.1.

I'm sure seeing no evidence this is some kind of loaded WR class. Deep is not loaded, that's coming next year.

 

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19 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

2013 is probably more similar. 

I'd typed my last message before seeing your message and mentioned RB's being like the 2013 draft and really feel it's like that for both the RB's and WR's.  That's how this draft feels to me and like I said that draft gave us players that in some of my leagues were 1.1 picks of dynasty rookie drafts that were second round NFL picks. I'm getting similar vibe this year.

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16 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I agree that when he is drafted matters with respect to using a high first round pick on him. I really view this draft with RB's as similar to the Bell draft where at this time the closest thing to a consensus was probably Lacy. That's a year we had no first round RB's but most drafts of mine Bell or Gio went first. That's last year I can recall the first pick of rookie drafts in my league being a second round pick. I think we got a good shot for the same this year.

Where I sharply disagree with you is that this class is loaded at WR as you have alluded to often. I think it's deep, but so is RB.  Take a look at some fairly respected people's top 50-100 players as examples. Daniel Jeremiah updated top 50  he has 3 WR's in his top 30 but most people here hate one of them(Ridley) and don't really view Marquise Brown as a first round pick either. Other then those two he had Metcalk in his top 30 and only other WR in his top 50 was AJ Brown. That's 4 Wr's in his top 50,   and only one in his top 30 that people really view as a high first round pick. That's not deep. He also has no Harry in his top 50, someone that some view as their top WR.

Dane Brugler recently put out his top 100. He's got one single WR in his top 30, Metcalf at 23. His #2 WR is at #32 and again that is Marquise Brown who I don't think anyone is super jacked about spending a first round pick on right now ,at least not a high one. Harry is his #6WR and not in DJ's top 50 as I alluded to and I'm not saying that to single out Harry but saying it to use as similar example you used on Henderson earlier when you said some people don't even have in him in their top 4 but yet for some he is in their mix right now for 1.1.

I'm sure seeing no evidence this is some kind of loaded WR class. Deep is not loaded, that's coming next year.

 

Post draft anything is possible. 

I just feel like there will be a LOT of wrs selected in the first 2 or 3 rounds and maybe 4 or 5 RBs. 

Anything can happen. Henderson could be the 2nd rb taken, and in that case I think he flys up the rookie draft charts. For my sake I hope he drops because I'd like to spend a later pick on him, not a high one. 

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39 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I'm sure seeing no evidence this is some kind of loaded WR class. Deep is not loaded, that's coming next year.

 

Would you mind offering your thoughts on the 2020 class vs. 2019? 

There are a lot of prospects I like this year, but no one I'm crazy about quite yet.  I tend to be against the grain versus a lot of the presumed top picks.  Maybe landing spots will shuffle things some, but ultimately I fear it's a jumble with highly volatile results within the first 11-16 picks.  

I haven't gone too deep on 2020 because things will definitely change between now and then, but there are already 5 guys I would kill for in that draft and I haven't watched tape on the next (projected) 12+ guys.  Just everything I read says it's crazy deep and loaded with elite talent.

Would be very interested in your thoughts.  Im getting to the point where I'd move top half of 2019 picks for bottom half 2020 picks, although I'd certainly try my best to capture more value along the way.  But put me on a lie detector and I'm almost ready to say I'd prefer the 1.09 next year to the 1.01 this year.

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2 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

A lot of bad angles from safeties. He runs right past them without even needing to make a move. I love the burst, but just wish he had some elusiveness to go with it. The safeties in the NFL will hold their own better than the ones from UCF. 

The bad angles are in part because of his burst

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The knock on Henderson I've been reading is that he cant beat defenders in an elevator.  In other words, he had tons of space by virtue of lesser competition and thus the fantastic highlights.  And when I put the tape on, it's kinda what I see too.

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16 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Would you mind offering your thoughts on the 2020 class vs. 2019? 

There are a lot of prospects I like this year, but no one I'm crazy about quite yet.  I tend to be against the grain versus a lot of the presumed top picks.  Maybe landing spots will shuffle things some, but ultimately I fear it's a jumble with highly volatile results within the first 11-16 picks.  

I haven't gone too deep on 2020 because things will definitely change between now and then, but there are already 5 guys I would kill for in that draft and I haven't watched tape on the next (projected) 12+ guys.  Just everything I read says it's crazy deep and loaded with elite talent.

Would be very interested in your thoughts.  Im getting to the point where I'd move top half of 2019 picks for bottom half 2020 picks, although I'd certainly try my best to capture more value along the way.  But put me on a lie detector and I'm almost ready to say I'd prefer the 1.09 next year to the 1.01 this year.

I may actually try to move my lower mid 1st for any 2020 1st

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I may actually try to move my lower mid 1st for any 2020 1st

That's an easy move.  The question is whether it's worth moving top 5 (top 3 even) picks for late 2020 1sts with no extra value added.  That is the reality I'm facing in most of my leagues because apparently everyone has gotten the memo.

If I'm being honest, I'd rather have a random 2020 than the 1.01 this year.  Of course I want more value, but it's hard to get.  Maybe draft a guy and hope his value goes up, then deal.  Or trade in season.  But man, it's like pulling teeth getting a 2020 1st right now.

 

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5 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

That's an easy move.  The question is whether it's worth moving top 5 (top 3 even) picks for late 2020 1sts with no extra value added.  That is the reality I'm facing in most of my leagues because apparently everyone has gotten the memo.

If I'm being honest, I'd rather have a random 2020 than the 1.01 this year.  Of course I want more value, but it's hard to get.  Maybe draft a guy and hope his value goes up, then deal.  Or trade in season.  But man, it's like pulling teeth getting a 2020 1st right now.

 

You should be patient and wait until the nfl draft

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Just now, Gandalf said:

You should be patient and wait until the nfl draft

Yeah, agreed there.  But what about OTC of the rookie draft?  That very well could be the apex of 2019 pick value.  After that, whomever you draft has to show something or you're not sniffing 2020 picks.

Definitely not making those moves until then.  But I wonder...

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4 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Yeah, agreed there.  But what about OTC of the rookie draft?  That very well could be the apex of 2019 pick value.  After that, whomever you draft has to show something or you're not sniffing 2020 picks.

Definitely not making those moves until then.  But I wonder...

For sure. That is my strategy as well. I own 1.01 and four  2020 picks. If someone offered me 1.02 for one of my 2020 picks I would decline. But I do like the WRs and TEs in 2019, just not as much as RBs in 2020.

 

Edited by Gandalf

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4 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

For sure. That is my strategy as well. I own 1.01 and four  2020 picks. If someone offered me 1.02 for one of my 2020 picks I would decline. But I do like the WRs and TEs in 2019, just not as much as RBs in 2020.

 

Man, there are quite a few WRs next year I would happily take over any this year.  It's not just RBs.  Next year is stacked.

 

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1 minute ago, skinfanjon said:

Man, there are quite a few WRs next year I would happily take over any this year.  It's not just RBs.  Next year is stacked.

 

Outside of hype, Individual players with a lot of hype before they are draft eligible are usually at their highest value the year before they are drafted.

Fournette, Cook, Chubb (injury), C Ridley, Harry, AJB, etc.  

Guys like Jeudy and Shenault are no more highly regarded right now than Harry, Brown, Richards, and to a lesser extent Metcalf were at this time last year.  Obviously Richards and Metcalf had the injuries (both neck injuries, oddly) but Harry and Brown played exactly like they were supposed to and tested better than expected and both are now projected to be picked in the 20's or later in the NFL draft while they were projected top 5ish at this time last year.

Everybody loves next year's guys until next year.

I'm not saying that 2020 isn't looking like a much better class than this year's.  It is for sure.  But the hype will cool on a LOT of those guys in next year's class.

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44 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Would you mind offering your thoughts on the 2020 class vs. 2019? 

 

I don't love any WR in this class. Wanted to, couldn't do it. I think it's deep, I think some of them have potential but I the WR's I trust the most don't have massive upside and the WR's I think have more upside I don't trust. That's as specific as I can be right now.

As for the 2020 draft I see bona fide studs. Jeudy is probably my favorite but I feel like we got a few big time studs, here is article on some: 2020 WR class could be truly be historic. It's not just RB's in 2020, it's RB's and WR's. I feel like the 2020 draft is going to be bring elements of the 2014 loaded WR draft and 2017 RB class together in one draft.

 

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I don't love any WR in this class. Wanted to, couldn't do it. I think it's deep, I think some of them have potential but I the WR's I trust the most don't have massive upside and the WR's I think have more upside I don't trust. That's as specific as I can be right now.

As for the 2020 draft I see bona fide studs. Jeudy is probably my favorite but I feel like we got a few big time studs, here is article on some: 2020 WR class could be truly be historic. It's not just RB's in 2020, it's RB's and WR's. I feel like the 2020 draft is going to be bring elements of the 2014 loaded WR draft and 2017 RB class together in one draft.

 

Yep, totally on the same page with you.  Thanks

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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Outside of hype, Individual players with a lot of hype before they are draft eligible are usually at their highest value the year before they are drafted.

Fournette, Cook, Chubb (injury), C Ridley, Harry, AJB, etc.  

Guys like Jeudy and Shenault are no more highly regarded right now than Harry, Brown, Richards, and to a lesser extent Metcalf were at this time last year.  Obviously Richards and Metcalf had the injuries (both neck injuries, oddly) but Harry and Brown played exactly like they were supposed to and tested better than expected and both are now projected to be picked in the 20's or later in the NFL draft while they were projected top 5ish at this time last year.

Everybody loves next year's guys until next year.

I'm not saying that 2020 isn't looking like a much better class than this year's.  It is for sure.  But the hype will cool on a LOT of those guys in next year's class.

Got to say I don't think I agree with anything you are saying here. Don't agree players always rise in value the year before they were drafted and some of those examples you gave those players absolutely took a step up in value their last year.

Strong disagreement that any WR in this class was ever seen in same light as the two 2020 WR's you just pointed out.

Sometimes people love next years guys because they are just a lot better.

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9 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Outside of hype, Individual players with a lot of hype before they are draft eligible are usually at their highest value the year before they are drafted.

Fournette, Cook, Chubb (injury), C Ridley, Harry, AJB, etc.  

Guys like Jeudy and Shenault are no more highly regarded right now than Harry, Brown, Richards, and to a lesser extent Metcalf were at this time last year.  Obviously Richards and Metcalf had the injuries (both neck injuries, oddly) but Harry and Brown played exactly like they were supposed to and tested better than expected and both are now projected to be picked in the 20's or later in the NFL draft while they were projected top 5ish at this time last year.

Everybody loves next year's guys until next year.

I'm not saying that 2020 isn't looking like a much better class than this year's.  It is for sure.  But the hype will cool on a LOT of those guys in next year's class.

True, some will fade, but some will also rise.  For the record I was never gassed up about any particular player in this class.  And none of your examples for previous years for that matter either.  But there are already 5 guys I'm willing to bet heavy on right now from 2020.

 

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14 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Now I’m hoping he goes to a place with an established but not elite RB. Would like to get him at 2.10. 

I don't think there's much of a chance of that happening.

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I've had a clear top4 RB's for a while now with Henderson being the 4th on that list.  After these pro day's I've moved them all closer together (Josh Jacobs down, Henderson up) but I kept the order.  So now they're literally all bunched together, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson literally all within 6 picks of difference between Jacobs and Henderson.  The last piece is that draft capital and I can imagine the order being completely flipped if the landing spots dictate that.  It will still be that top4 but the order is very much up in the air.  All of who I could see going late 1st in a rookie draft though if they all land in above average spots.  

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52 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I predict Henderson will go middle first round to late first round in most dynasty rookie drafts.

Right now in FFPC startups he is the 4th rookie RB drafted which puts him in that range but really no idea right now of knowing how it all works out. He's at top 5 guy for me right now and could end up out of my top 15 when all is said and done. A team like Dallas is going to draft a RB. Probably not till round three or later, probably later. Let's say they nabbed someone's top 5 RB in late round 3, that's not someones top 5 RB anymore.

Same thing for WR.  Ravens said yesterday what we all knew, they were going to attack WR's in the draft. They could in theory end up murdering the value of someones top 5 and add maybe a top 10 WR.

It's all just speculation at this point, not seeing the kind of prospect yet in this draft that is a landing proof.

 

 

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12 hours ago, menobrown said:

Ravens said yesterday what we all knew, they were going to attack WR's in the draft. They could in theory end up murdering the value of someones top 5 and add maybe a top 10 WR.

Ah, the dreaded murder of ravens.

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20 hours ago, menobrown said:

 

Same thing for WR.  Ravens said yesterday what we all knew, they were going to attack WR's in the draft. They could in theory end up murdering the value of someones top 5 and add maybe a top 10 WR.

 

 

Is Ray Lewis at the draft?

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On 3/25/2019 at 12:52 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Yes I agree Just champing at the bit a little. 

I'd be surprised if Singletary went before Henderson. Sanders and Montgomery, sure, I can see why on certain teams. Hill... maybe... 

Quoted for (vanishingly) correct use of idiom. :thumbup:

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Pro Football Focus' Scott Barrett notes that Memphis RB Darrell Henderson had the softest rushing strength of schedule of any NFL Combine invitee.

Henderson (5'8/208) was running behind PFF's third-ranked offensive line as well, so those two notes partially explain Henderson's back to back seasons with 8.9 yards per carry. However, even with that in mind, Barrett said Henderson is "probably one of the five best runners in the class and also has underrated upside as a receiver." Henderson was compared to James White by NFL Film's Greg Cosell, and he has 50-catch upside if he lands in the right offense. Expect Henderson to be selected near the Day 2/3 turn.

SOURCE: Scott Barrett on Twitter

Mar 27, 2019, 12:46 PM

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16 hours ago, Faust said:

 

compared to James White by NFL Film's Greg Cosell, and he has 50-catch upside if he lands in the right offense. Expect Henderson to be selected near the Day 2/3 turn.

I think White is probably a good comparison, but with more speed.  

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I think Rap is overselling him just a bit as a late first round candidate but this is a good news/bad news tweet. Good to see him get some buzz, but most of these landing spots would suck. Also hard to actually see any team on this list except the Eagles pay a second. Maybe the Ravens who were just saying the other day they'd like to add a elusive pass catching RB but with their WR needs I'd think they add that kind of RB later.

Ian Rapoport‏Verified account @RapSheet 19m19 minutes ago

#Memphis RB Darrell Henderson has 3 teams – #Saints, #Jets, and #Titans – on campus today to work him out, I’m told. A rising prospect who could land at the top of the 2nd or even late 1st, his Pro Day was attended by RB coaches from #Eagles, #Giants, #Cowboys and #Ravens.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I think Rap is overselling him just a bit as a late first round candidate but this is a good news/bad news tweet. Good to see him get some buzz, but most of these landing spots would suck. Also hard to actually see any team on this list except the Eagles pay a second. Maybe the Ravens who were just saying the other day they'd like to add a elusive pass catching RB but with their WR needs I'd think they add that kind of RB later.

Ian Rapoport‏Verified account @RapSheet 19m19 minutes ago

#Memphis RB Darrell Henderson has 3 teams – #Saints, #Jets, and #Titans – on campus today to work him out, I’m told. A rising prospect who could land at the top of the 2nd or even late 1st, his Pro Day was attended by RB coaches from #Eagles, #Giants, #Cowboys and #Ravens.

zero chance Baltimore takes him round 2. 

Would get the Henryistas' undies in a bundle if TEN took a RB round 2. I kind of hope for that just to grab the popcorn and watch. 

 

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Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline passes along that Memphis RB Darrell Henderson met with the Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens around his pro day.

Per Pauline, Henderson "looked solid in ball-carrier drills" during his pro day position work and additionally caught the ball well. The 5-foot-8, 208-pounder will be in play for a Day 2 selection next month and won't be sitting around for too long on Day 3 should he slide into the back half of proceedings. Indeed, Pauline relays that some evaluators even believe that Henderson has a chance to go as high as Round 2.

SOURCE: Draft Analyst

Mar 29, 2019, 12:41 PM

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26 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

The places he's being slotted in this thread alone are crazy. 1.05 to 2.10.

What's his best case scenario?

This has changed significantly, which is why I think he goes lower in the NFL and rookie drafts. 

Initially the best landing spots were: Philly, Baltimore, Oakland, Kansas City. 

Philly traded for Howard. Granted hes no Le'veon Bell, but it helps decrease the need to take a RB first off the board and crowds the backfield more than it was a week ago.  

Baltimore signed Ingram and they have Edwards and Dixon as well... I'm not sure they are in the market or a great spot anymore

Oakland is still open, and a good landing spot, but I think Jacobs ends up there 

Kansas City has taken care of their rb position as well, and has invested a decent amount of money there. probably doesnt need to invest draft picks even further. 

So now what are we left with... 

Tampa Bay... Sure, not a bad spot. I'd be pretty stoked for whoever lands there

Houston... Some opportunity there in the future. 

Buffalo... would be a solid spot although 2019 playing time would be limited. could be out-drafted in 2020s strong class

Atlanta... needs a compliment to Freeman unless the Judge makes some strides and can take that role.

Minnesota... Dalvin Cook looked solid, but they need a Murray replacement. 

Tennessee... this would be a disaster but they are working out a lot of RBs it seems so they are apparently in the market. 

Carolina... Not a real promising scenario unless CMC gets hurt. 

New York Jets... would be a bad spot since they just went all in on Bell

Detroit... apparently they are interested in a RB. Not sure how I feel about this since I'm not sure how Kerryon is going to be used. 

New Orleans... they have a pass catching back in Kamara and not sure if Henderson would be used to his strengths there. 

I'd say the best scenario for Henderson is Tampa Bay, which then I'd be all about taking him around 1.7-8, Oakland would be very good and another 1.7-8 grade from me. I'd be happy about Houston, Buffalo, Atlanta but would drop him down a few slots (1.9). Anywhere else and I'm likely not interested in burning a 1st on him. 

ETA: if philly took him round 3 or 4 I'd be pretty excited since he could be a pass catching back there... but I am wondering if Philly could be interested in James Williams who almost no one is talking about right now but should be adding to their watch lists. 

The fact that there are less and less real good scenarios each week of this offseason, combined with the fact that Henderson may not be one of the first 3 RBs drafted, makes me wonder if he ends up in a less than optimal scenario. Just my opinion however. I like the guy, and I may want him on my team depending where he lands, so I'm rooting for a good spot. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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