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Dr. Dan

Darrell Henderson - LA Rams

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2 minutes ago, Tool said:

I’d take him at 10 without much thought

No other player has his upside at 10

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I have a roster in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues where I'm weakest at WR. I have the 1.6, 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, 2.2, and 2.8 picks. I am debating on taking him at 1.11 or  2.2  With this roster would you pull trigger at 1.11 or take your chances at 2.2? (the 2 teams that pick 1.12 and 2.1 have almost NOTHING at TE, so guessing he could last until 2.2 but no guarantee) 

Big Ben, Wentz

Barkley, Guice, Lindsay, Bernard, Lewis

AB, Mike Williams, Pettis, Crowder, Samuel, Quinn  

Howard, Cook, Gesicki 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I have a roster in one of my 12 team PPR dynasty leagues where I'm weakest at WR. I have the 1.6, 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, 2.2, and 2.8 picks. I am debating on taking him at 1.11 or  2.2  With this roster would you pull trigger at 1.11 or take your chances at 2.2? (the 2 teams that pick 1.12 and 2.1 have almost NOTHING at TE, so guessing he could last until 2.2 but no guarantee) 

Big Ben, Wentz

Barkley, Guice, Lindsay, Bernard, Lewis 

AB, Mike Williams, Pettis, Crowder, Samuel, Quinn  

Howard, Cook, Gesicki 

 

 

Depends who your targets are at each pick. I would say, why target a WR for all of your 1st round picks? IMO, if pick 12 and 13 have nothing at TE, then they will likely pass on a WR too. I wouoldn't risk Henderson being there 2.2. If they pass on a TE and take a WR, then you have a solid TE waiting for you at 2.2.

If I were you, I'd consider going WR 1.06, WR 1.08, TE 1.10, Henderson 1.11, WR 2.2. If you really have to go WR, go with your first 3 picks and then take Henderson, finish with a WR.

I went Hockenson 1.09 and I already have Ebron and Engram. :shrug: Best available talent. Helped that I already knew I'd walk away with all of my WR targets.

Ultimately you'll have to wait until the draft to make your decision. See what WRs are there and if your 1.11 target would last until 2.2. For instance, at 1.10 I picked AJ Brown because I figured Hollywood and Campbell would go 1.11 and 1.12, leaving me Isabella at 2.1. My original plan was to pick Isabella at 1.10.

Edited by Dr. Dan

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On 5/8/2019 at 10:54 AM, menobrown said:

I'm in a close to similar spot, sitting on 1.7 and 2.3 and I own Gurley on this team so an extra bonus for wanting him.

I'm in several dynasty leagues and what to do with that pick 7 has absolutely dominated my thought process over possibly the other leagues drafts combined. It's FFPC format and most drafts I've seen it's close to a top 6 consensus, my same top 6 players I have in an upper tier and Henderson is not one of those top 6. Should someone leave one of those consensus top 6 and I'm staring at one of them and Henderson I'm not sure what I'm going to do, would be an easy choice if I did not own Gurley, I'd take one of my top 6 no questions asked.  At this point leaning staying true to my rankings and passing on Henderson at 7 even with owning Gurley and then proceeding to try everything I can to trade up from 2.3 until someone removes him from consideration.

The only thing I know for sure if those top 6 go I will pick him at 7.

I did 3 drafts this past weekend and he went 8(to someone who is my draft I referenced above), 10 and 13.  The first two drafts were FFPC format.

 

Odds of him slipping to pick 15 are small, so if hes that great of a priority then either try to trade back to 10 or 11 knowing you could still get burned or just pick him at 7.

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2 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Odds of him slipping to pick 15 are small, so if hes that great of a priority then either try to trade back to 10 or 11 knowing you could still get burned or just pick him at 7.

Agree odds of him slipping to 15 are slim to none. In another league of mine the Gurley owner was sitting on pick 12 and the other day he dealt a 2020#2 to move to 8. I feel like I know exactly why he made that move.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

Agree odds of him slipping to 15 are slim to none. In another league of mine the Gurley owner was sitting on pick 12 and the other day he dealt a 2020#2 to move to 8. I feel like I know exactly why he made that move.

 

 

 

please tell me you have 1.7 :lol:

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

please tell me you have 1.7 :lol:

 

I wish, different league.

The league I have pick 7 I made up my mind to take Henderson at 7. He just went 4th.

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

 

I wish, different league.

The league I have pick 7 I made up my mind to take Henderson at 7. He just went 4th.

woah. I promise I'm not in that league. maybe we should let this thread die for a month 

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Henderson went 7th and 8th in two of my drafts yesterday and today. 7th was me after trying to trade down a few spots. He seems to be rising pretty quickly.

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23 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

woah. I promise I'm not in that league. maybe we should let this thread die for a month 

 

21 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

Jesus Christ, yes please lock this for a few weeks.

The 4 in my league is an outlier but one I sort of saw coming, just highly unfortunate for me that's the last league I own Gurley and was sitting on pick 7 with an ability to insure Gurley if not just add another starter because  I think the Kamara comp has some legitimacy to it.

The league he went 4th I was in two previous drafts last weekend with that person and neither of us owned Gurley. In the first draft I did not pick until 11 and he took Henderson at 8. In the second draft he took Hockenson at 4,  I took Montgomery at 5 and then I took Henderson at 10.

I talk to this person and I knew that Henderson was his top RB in this class. I also knew he did not like Montgomery(top 3 picks were Jacobs, Sanders and Harry). This is TE premium but he's stacked at TE with Ertz/Goedert and Kittle. He knew I'd take Henderson at 7. So add it up that confluence of things and that's where you get a Henderson at 4 and really it makes sense.

 

18 minutes ago, Coach3K said:

Henderson went 7th and 8th in two of my drafts yesterday and today. 7th was me after trying to trade down a few spots. He seems to be rising pretty quickly.

This is more the range I would expect in most leagues but for me in a single PPR league, not TE premium, he'd be my player 5.

Edited by menobrown

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He just went 6th of another FFPC league of mine and similar to the league he went 4th not to the Gurley owner.

 

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28 minutes ago, Coach3K said:

Henderson went 7th and 8th in two of my drafts yesterday and today. 7th was me after trying to trade down a few spots. He seems to be rising pretty quickly.

I think I am going to pull the trigger for him at 7 next week in my rookie draft also.

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I went through every DFWC league that has started so far (some started last week, some this week, some still yet to start like mine)

DFWC is a 1 PPR league for all positions 12 teams

38 drafts have gone off so far here is the Henderson break down in these drafts.

4th pick - 1 time

5th pick - 1 time

7th pick - 1 time

8th pick - 4 times

9th pick - 5 times

10th pick - 7 times

11th pick - 1 time

12th pick - 1 time

13th pick - 2 times

14th pick - 4 times

15th pick - 2 times

16th pick - 6 times

17th pick - 1 time

18th pick - 1 time

19th pick - 1 time

Edited by Dez
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25 minutes ago, Dez said:

I went through every DFWC league that has started so far (some started last week, some this week, some still yet to start like mine)

DFWC is a 1 PPR league for all positions 12 teams

38 drafts have gone off so far here is the Henderson break down in these drafts.

4th pick - 1 time

5th pick - 1 time

7th pick - 1 time

8th pick - 4 times

9th pick - 5 times

10th pick - 7 times

11th pick - 1 time

12th pick - 1 time

13th pick - 2 times

14th pick - 4 times

15th pick - 2 times

16th pick - 6 times

17th pick - 1 time

18th pick - 1 time

19th pick - 1 time

Eyeballing that puts him around pick 11 in that sample. Might be time to float some negative rumors about him!

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6 hours ago, menobrown said:

Agree odds of him slipping to 15 are slim to none. In another league of mine the Gurley owner was sitting on pick 12 and the other day he dealt a 2020#2 to move to 8. I feel like I know exactly why he made that move.

 

 

 

Yes sir!

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He and JJAW just kept sliding in a 28 team contract league I joined last year. I finally bit the bullet and traded my 2020 1st (likely very late so pick 24-28 next year) and 2019 3.27 to get the 2019 1.28 and grabbed Henderson. Left myself with 2 more picks over the next 12 to grab the premium IDP targets I needed to round out my starting lineup. Feeling really good about it. 28 teams with contracts made lots of people draft for need (and startable assets) but I'll take the upside all day at that point. Too many red flags for me to worry about Gurley long term, and it could be a case where Henderson's second contract isn't super massive if he does split work for a bit. 

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In a ppr dynasty in which I have Gurley, I traded a 1st next year for the 18th and 19th picks.  I took Henderson and Singletary.  Wasn’t planning on targeting Henderson, but at that spot I had to make a move to get him.  

Now since the trade I am liking it more and more.  

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He just went 1.02 and 1.04 in two FFPC leagues today

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4 minutes ago, Penguin said:

He just went 1.02 and 1.04 in two FFPC leagues today

2 ? Did Gurley pull a Hunt ?

Edited by Dez

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I took him at 1.04 in a league I had to have RBs. Jacobs, Montgomery and Sanders went 1, 2, 3. I also owned 1.05 and 1.07 and tried hard to move back but had no dice. Took Harry at 5 and Metcalf at 7. In a few other similar leagues that are drafting at the same time, he has gone 12, 11, 6, 5, and 6.

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I was primed to take Henderson at 1.05 in PPR/PremTE, but N'Keal Harry fell to me and I had a change of heart. I would expect from this point forward you will need 1.07 or better to secure him.  Obviously Gurley will get a very light workload in pre-season, if any workload at all, and I expect Henderson will eat up pre-season defenses.  In other words, there will be a second wave of hype.

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In my only FFPC rookie draft, I just took him at 1.09.

The Gurley owner messaged that he want to trade into the first round and would trade one of his D for a late first. I LOL'd, offered him my 1.09 for his Guice, he LOL'd, then I took Henderson with my 1.09. I not only got the guy I was targeting but also hopefully steamed the Gurley owner a little. :) 

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3 hours ago, drizzle said:

This is getting crazy

It really isn’t. People need to pound it into their brain that the only time teams are forced to tell the truth is the NFL draft. No one had a clue about Doug Baldwin, Seahawks take three WR’s. Telvin Smith retires, Jaguars take a LB in the third. Gettleman tells everyone and their mother they’re going BPA before the draft, takes Daniel Jones after the Redskins tell everyone and their mother they’re trading up for Daniel Jones.... The trade up in the third (and matching of Brown) is a quasi admittance that Gurley has issues. You have Snead on film saying he thinks Henderson can do what Kamara does. Add that to him being the highest efficiency runner in the draft, the Rams being the team that runs the absolute least against 8 man fronts, his ability and potential use case out of the backfield and his success off tackle vs the Rams use of off-tackle. It’s hard to not see this as some perfect storm even if his touches are limited by Gurley. 

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His value seems to have risen pretty firmly to mid-1st.  He went 1.6 and 1.8 today in my FFPC drafts and one of them was SF.

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Why is his value rising ? Nothing’s happened since the draft right? (Other than a coach comparing him to Kamara)

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9 minutes ago, Tool said:

Why is his value rising ? Nothing’s happened since the draft right? (Other than a coach comparing him to Kamara)

Correction from the reactionary dip following the draft. He is about where he should be (1.6-1.8)

Edited by Dr. Dan
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20 minutes ago, Tool said:

Why is his value rising ? Nothing’s happened since the draft right? (Other than a coach comparing him to Kamara)

That's kind of a big thing.  This time of year when we have so little to go on with players seemingly small stuff like coachspeak and rookie mini-camp reports will absolutely change players perceived value.

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1 hour ago, Tool said:

Why is his value rising ? Nothing’s happened since the draft right? (Other than a coach comparing him to Kamara)

Because a *much* larger portion of the fantasy community is being represented in ADP now that rookie drafts are underway. We are finally collecting real live data. And gobs of it. And it is being pulled from a population that is much wider than these boards or analysts. As Trip put it, the market is correcting itself. Now that doesn't necessarily mean jack in terms of whether Henderson will hit or not, but his true value is being defined right now.

Not to be underestimated is the simple factor that RBs are incredibly scarce. And as soon as the first 3 guys go, Henderson is the last of the RBs before Harris and Singletary. Being the last one in the top tier makes one coveted in any market.

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“Expert” and podcast drafts have him far lower than the people who frequent this board. 

No idea what kind of run he’s getting on Reddit or DLF, but I feel like it’s been a significant overcorrection here. 

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11 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

“Expert” and podcast drafts have him far lower than the people who frequent this board. 

No idea what kind of run he’s getting on Reddit or DLF, but I feel like it’s been a significant overcorrection here. 

DLF has him early to mid 2nd, so I can certainly see where someone would have the opinion that hes had an over correction

Edited by Dr. Dan

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This is the way I see it....in the mid/late 1st, do you take a "maybe" WR or swing for the fences with a potential starting RB in a great offense if Gurley's decline is steep. 

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Just now, joey said:

This is the way I see it....in the mid/late 1st, do you take a "maybe" WR or swing for the fences with a potential starting RB in a great offense if Gurley's decline is steep. 

RBs always have slightly more value due to short life span and faster returns on investment. 

Shooting for a homerun in Henderson over a safer "maybe" wr pick definitely has merit. Depends who is on the board, however, as there is some pretty.good wr talent this draft

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Depends who is on the board, however, as there is some pretty.good wr talent this draft

This, and I will add that I don’t think it’s necessarily good value to get the 3rd/4th/5th RB in what is universally considered to be a terrible RB class over WRs that are both talented and deep. 

This is the year to get several WR prospects, and next year is when to pounce on RBs. 

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3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

This, and I will add that I don’t think it’s necessarily good value to get the 3rd/4th/5th RB

That is a matter of opinion.

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Henderson is being viewed quite a bit higher by the FF community than what I anticipated (based on what I think of his raw talent). Much of the love has to be coming from the unknown with Gurley, but the problem with that is if Gurley has serious issues with his knee, Henderson could easily get drafted over in the strong 2020 RB class.

As far as this season, Brown would likely be their starter if Gurley goes down. The Rams have been pretty clear Henderson will be a COP. You often get coach-speak about 3-down ability, etc., but I take it much more at face value when teams say they drafted a guy for a specific role.

Edited by Football Jones

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4 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Henderson is being viewed quite a bit higher by the FF community than what I anticipated (based on what I think of his raw talent). Much of the love has to be coming from the unknown with Gurley, but the problem with that is if Gurley has serious issues with his knee, Henderson could easily get drafted over in the strong 2020 RB class.

As far as this season, Brown would likely be their starter if Gurley goes down. The Rams have been pretty clear Henderson will be a COP. You often get coach-speak about 3-down ability, but I listen more closely when teams say they drafted a guy for a specific role.

The Rams coaching staff compared him to Alvin Kamara...so there's that.

Alvin Kamara went undrafted in many leagues two years ago.

Perhaps the fantasy community is learning from its mistakes.

Edited by TripItUp

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12 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

The Rams coaching staff compared him to Alvin Kamara...so there's that.

Alvin Kamara went undrafted in many leagues two years ago.

Perhaps the fantasy community is learning from its mistakes.

It's a pretty weak comparison, IMO. Henderson isn't NEARLY as dynamic. 

Henderson is going to be interesting for me personally because his stature in the FF community is much higher than where I have him.

To be clear, I'm not saying Henderson can't be successful in a role, but I don't like his long-term feature back outlook (which is the standard I use in dynasty play).

Edited by Football Jones

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12 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

The Rams coaching staff compared him to Alvin Kamara...so there's that.

Alvin Kamara went undrafted in many leagues two years ago.

Perhaps the fantasy community is learning from its mistakes.

Huh? Is this true? This doesn’t seem remotely true. He was a mid-ish 1st round pick in both my 16 team leagues.

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4 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

It's a pretty weak comparison, IMO. Henderson isn't NEARLY as dynamic. 

Henderson is going to be interesting for me personally because his stature in the FF community is much higher than where I have him.

To be clear, I'm not saying Henderson can't be successful in a role, but I don't like his long-term feature back outlook (which is the standard I use in dynasty play).

Do you consider Kamara a "feature back?"

You likely did not his rookie year and missed out on what was for many, a league winner.

Edited by TripItUp

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1 minute ago, Ranethe said:

Huh? Is this true? This doesn’t seem remotely true. He was a mid-ish 1st round pick in both my 16 team leagues.

Undrafted largely his rookie year, 2017...you are referring to 2018...last year.

 

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Do you consider Kamara a "feature back?"

Sure, but the difference in Kamara's raw ability & Henderson's is rather large.

 

Edited by Football Jones

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2 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Sure, but the difference between Kamara's raw ability & Henderson's is rather large.

 

According to who?

Here is a Kamara grade of C+ from CBS.   CBS LINK

Kamara was drafted in the third round.  Henderson was drafted in the 3rd round.

Edited by TripItUp

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3 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Undrafted largely his rookie year, 2017...you are referring to 2018...last year.

 

No, I’m talking about him in rookie drafts. I have never heard of a single league where he was not drafted as a rookie, much less “many”. Did you see “many” leagues where he went undrafted as a rookie?

Edited by Ranethe

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I'm sure the Rams will try to do some similar things with Henderson that the Saints do with Kamara, but Kamara's skill set allows him to be a feature back.

Even if you like Henderson's talent, it's hard to get passed what the Rams envision for him (COP). Nothing wrong with that. Not every RB is drafted to be a feature back (most aren't).

Edited by Football Jones

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