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QB Kyler Murray Arizona

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On 6/16/2019 at 9:21 PM, Bronco Billy said:

 

You’re aware that Mayfield set the NFL rookie record with 27 TDs last year, right?  

I like Murray a lot but it’s more likely he never throws for 40 TDs in a season than he throws for 40 TDs this season.

i mean there’s “hyperbole” and then there’s just plain lunacy.

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On 6/19/2019 at 6:07 AM, pantherclub said:

He said it on this board, or another board or some secret board or perhaps even in a dream but by God he said it and somebody somewhere laughed at him.  Now he is getting the last laugh.

He shared the post with me.  Predicted 40+tds, 20ints... "prob not #1 but would make an impact".

So he was about as right as you can be.

Edited by matuski

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6 minutes ago, matuski said:

He shared the post with me.  Predicted 40+tds, 20ints... "not #1 but would make a splash".

So he was about as right as you can be.

 

And was he as persecuted in the responses to his post as he continually has stated?

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47 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

You could have said nearly the same thing about Mayfield last year.

No, upcoming TE, pro-bowl WR in Landry, Clev OL grades out high the past 2 years and a stable of 3 good RB's on the roster.   Definitely more talent in Clev vs AZ situation 

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26 minutes ago, stlrams said:

No, upcoming TE, pro-bowl WR in Landry, Clev OL grades out high the past 2 years and a stable of 3 good RB's on the roster.   Definitely more talent in Clev vs AZ situation 

I guess you're right about the line. But Njoku is skating on potential and Fitzgerald is every bit as good as Landry. The RB situation is similar.

Anyway, I'd still agree there's more talent in Cleveland - but not that there's none in Arizona.

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Supporting talent had very little to do with the problems in Cleveland.  It was almost exclusively coaching and QB.

And it isn't difficult to see Rosen/Mike McCoy/Byron Leftwich/Steve Wilks to Kyler/Kingsbury riding the same line as Kizer/Tyrod/Hue Jackson/Todd Haley to Baker/Kitchens.

Will it happen? :shrug: But the supporting talent probably won't play a big role in its outcome.

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

And was he as persecuted in the responses to his post as he continually has stated?

Not really actually.. one poster, along the lines of:

Quote

LOOOOOL gtfo with the Mahomes 40 TDs talk.

 

Edited by matuski

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Well that took about 12 seconds to find, not sure what all the secrecy was about.

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Just realized az was LAST like 32nd in offense in 2018.  A 40 td year from Murray would be a truly amazing turn around.  

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3 hours ago, stlrams said:

Just realized az was LAST like 32nd in offense in 2018.  A 40 td year from Murray would be a truly amazing turn around.  

In fairness, the entire coaching staff and offense has basically turned over. It’s not close to the same team as last year.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

In fairness, the entire coaching staff and offense has basically turned over. It’s not close to the same team as last year.

Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  

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21 hours ago, stlrams said:

Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  

Everyone says their line was terrible but all 5 offensive linemen were on IR by early December.

David Johnson had a down year but he wasn't targeted for passes and was run up the middle a ridiculous number of times. 

Palmer lasted 3 games before giving way to Rosen who averaged about 180 yards a game on 55 percent passing.  

Their best receivers were Kirk, who was a rookie and changed quarterbacks to an inaccurate Rosen, and Fitzgerald, who had his fewest targets and yards per game of his career.  They had poor qb play, poor scheme and no depth at the position. 

They've changed coaches to a more aggressive scheme but also intend to run a lot of plays.  Last year they ran just 902 offensive plays, 31st in the league (Miami was 32nd). This year they should easily be over 1000 just on pace of play. 

In other words they should be better in every way on offense this year.  More plays, better blocking, more efficient running plays, better receiving, and of course Murray.  It seems reasonable to think he can do better than the combined 15 touchdowns and 57 percent passing from Rosen and co. Especially when one of the passing touchdowns was thrown by Fitzgerald. 

They should easily get over 10 percent more plays and want to have closer to 15 or 20 percent. More plays with more efficient running and passing can quickly increase the overall numbers. I agree that jumping from 15 to 40 touchdowns is an enormous leap but they are primed to make a huge leap of some kind.

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43 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Everyone says their line was terrible but all 5 offensive linemen were on IR by early December.

David Johnson had a down year but he wasn't targeted for passes and was run up the middle a ridiculous number of times. 

Palmer lasted 3 games before giving way to Rosen who averaged about 180 yards a game on 55 percent passing.  

Their best receivers were Kirk, who was a rookie and changed quarterbacks to an inaccurate Rosen, and Fitzgerald, who had his fewest targets and yards per game of his career.  They had poor qb play, poor scheme and no depth at the position. 

They've changed coaches to a more aggressive scheme but also intend to run a lot of plays.  Last year they ran just 902 offensive plays, 31st in the league (Miami was 32nd). This year they should easily be over 1000 just on pace of play. 

In other words they should be better in every way on offense this year.  More plays, better blocking, more efficient running plays, better receiving, and of course Murray.  It seems reasonable to think he can do better than the combined 15 touchdowns and 57 percent passing from Rosen and co. Especially when one of the passing touchdowns was thrown by Fitzgerald. 

They should easily get over 10 percent more plays and want to have closer to 15 or 20 percent. More plays with more efficient running and passing can quickly increase the overall numbers. I agree that jumping from 15 to 40 touchdowns is an enormous leap but they are primed to make a huge leap of some kind.

I agree totally just not buying the hype just yet.   Even if we predict a 25% improvement it only gets us to 20 TDS.  If I see him running in the preseason it’s a recipe for injury.  If he can play behind the line then he has a chance. 

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53 minutes ago, stlrams said:

I agree totally just not buying the hype just yet.   Even if we predict a 25% improvement it only gets us to 20 TDS.  If I see him running in the preseason it’s a recipe for injury.  If he can play behind the line then he has a chance. 

 

I’m pulling for Murray, but we’re talking about a HC who never coached in the NFL before and had a losing record in college, in which his experience also was not extensive, coaching a rookie QB and installing a completely different system that the vets will also have to get used to.  Then there is the D, which is lacking more than a bit.

If people are expecting a CLE/Kitchens type of turnaround - AZ is a lot further from being in a position to do so and has an entire team including coaches who are going to be learning a new O and the NFL by being thrown into the fire.  

This has every bit as good a chance of blowing up into a bonfire as it does of moving the franchise forward significantly.

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I have no expectations but I'm looking forward to trading him for a King's Ransom down the road.

 

These mobile QBs scare me.

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I have Luck, Wentz, Trubisky and Mayfield. Would it be a wasted pick if I drafted him?

 

Tex

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3 minutes ago, BigTex said:

I have Luck, Wentz, Trubisky and Mayfield. Would it be a wasted pick if I drafted him?

 

Tex

Depends on the rest of your roster.

But I like the philosophy of "If he's on my team, he's not on yours."

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Depends on the rest of your roster.

But I like the philosophy of "If he's on my team, he's not on yours."

There’s not really a position of need. I’ve built a solid team for years to come. I keep talking myself out of focusing on him draft wise. Then I’d have to guess who to get rid of. The only position I’m not deep at is TE but a few years down the road WR will be a need if I don’t stay on top of my roster.

Tex

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On 6/21/2019 at 1:01 PM, stlrams said:

Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  

Best I could find was New Orleans the year they got Brees. 31st to 5th in points scored.
Redskins 26th to 4th when Robert griffin was a rookie.
Patriots 25th (Bledsoe) to 6th (Brady) in 2001.
Bucs 27th to 6th when they got rid of Dilfer.
Raiders 31st to 6th in 2010.

Edited by The Man With No Name

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43 minutes ago, BigTex said:

There’s not really a position of need. I’ve built a solid team for years to come. I keep talking myself out of focusing on him draft wise. Then I’d have to guess who to get rid of. The only position I’m not deep at is TE but a few years down the road WR will be a need if I don’t stay on top of my roster.

Tex

At some point if you have way too much QB capital, you have a strong trading opportunity.

If you don’t have a desperate need, take the best player and deal from strength to fix weaknesses later.

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Kyler's FF worth will depend more on his legs than his arm - my guess is he will have to have 600 rushing yards minimum to reach top 10.

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5 hours ago, BigTex said:

I have Luck, Wentz, Trubisky and Mayfield. Would it be a wasted pick if I drafted him?

 

Tex

You draft talent. BPA every. Time. 

Edited by Milkman
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4 minutes ago, Milkman said:

You draft talent. BPA every time. 

It’s not nfl style here but ffl here dude.

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6 hours ago, BigTex said:

I have Luck, Wentz, Trubisky and Mayfield. Would it be a wasted pick if I drafted him?

 

Tex

I don't think you need any help. Based on some of the players you have talked about having, your league mates really need to step up their FF game.

Murray could be a upgrade over Trubisky perhaps, so I think he has some value for your team.

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10 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I don't think you need any help. Based on some of the players you have talked about having, your league mates really need to step up their FF game.

Murray could be a upgrade over Trubisky perhaps, so I think he has some value for your team.

There’s no doubt a few of them need to step up. Overall their solid, I’ve been lucky as hell to hit on my draft picks over the last 5 to 6 years and now things are looking decent for me. 

I’m strongly considering it was just curious as to what the pool thought. Thanks

Tex

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1 hour ago, stlrams said:

Mostly the same players thou.  Can Arizona offense improve , absolutely, but to go from last to stats that constitutes a top 10 offense is a leap I’m not willing to make. Plus they play in a tough division.  

Well, not really.

There are no QB's left from last year  (Murray, Hundley).

For WR's, Fitz and Kirk are there, but the rest will all be new (Isabella, Butler, Johnson, White - most likely).

RB's will be the same (Johnson, Edmunds)

Starting TE will probably be new (Clay will probably start, with Seals-Jones getting time)

Starting offensive line will probably be Humphries, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Gilbert. Last year, Shipley tore his ACL in training camp, Pugh (hand/knee) missed nine games, Humphries (knee) missed seven, and Gilbert (knee) missed 11. So basically, the entire offensive line was out last year for multiple games.

On offense, the only thing that didn't change was the RB's and the WR 1 and 2. So it's really not close to being the same players.

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On 6/23/2019 at 12:03 AM, stlrams said:

It’s not nfl style here but ffl here dude.

I agree that you go BPA in FF as well. You can always trade later. I have tried the reach due to need & always burn myself. Been doing BPA & really having success...

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Cardinals on Murray’s Progress, Why Bush Is Crucial for Steelers, More NFL Notes

Excerpt:

Quote

Let’s start with this one: The Cardinals are very, very excited about how Kyler Murray has looked early on. You hear “legit” from one coach. You hear “impressive all the way around” from another. Realizing this is before the team has really seen the guy pull the rip-cord as an athlete—that’ll have to wait for live situations—it’s pretty easy to see the potential for some cool stuff in the fall. What they have seen, to this point, is impressive accuracy, instincts and command at the line of scrimmage, to go with a feel for a new scheme, that isn’t completely new to him. Add that to the mystery around that Kliff Kingsbury offense, and it’ll be a challenge for defenses to deal with in the first six weeks of the season or so (remember what the Redskins looked like early in 2012, or the Eagles looked like early in ’13 and ’16).

 

 

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temper expectations on a rookie QB in a run-n-shoot chuck-n-duck offense playing in the NFL. worst o-line in pro football, 49 yr old Fitz, DJ who hasn't done much in 2 years now, and general lack of talent at the offensive positions that matter , they're going to be a 4-5 win team. add to that a first time HC  calling for 5 wr sets against Sea, Sf, L.A. 6x/yr. 

I can't see 20 Tds let alone the 40 some are predicting.:oldunsure:..Shrager says 3500/30. I nearly fell off my chair. a Bake Mayfield-esque season comes along once in a long while. 

I'm going to say 2500/18/15INT. typical ho-hum rookie season. some highs, mostly lows. It's not just him,it's the air-raid system in the NFL. If that o-line can't protect him , he's going to get killed.

 

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On 6/22/2019 at 2:20 PM, Milkman said:

Just for fun

Passing

4000-31-14

Rushing

800-8

😁

Y'all know where I'm at. 😁

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And I think he has #1 QB in FF upside. Especially in 4pt passing TD leagues. 

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1 hour ago, Tanner9919 said:

temper expectations on a rookie QB in a run-n-shoot chuck-n-duck offense playing in the NFL. worst o-line in pro football, 49 yr old Fitz, DJ who hasn't done much in 2 years now, and general lack of talent at the offensive positions that matter , they're going to be a 4-5 win team. add to that a first time HC  calling for 5 wr sets against Sea, Sf, L.A. 6x/yr. 

I can't see 20 Tds let alone the 40 some are predicting.:oldunsure:..Shrager says 3500/30. I nearly fell off my chair. a Bake Mayfield-esque season comes along once in a long while

I'm going to say 2500/18/15INT. typical ho-hum rookie season. some highs, mostly lows. It's not just him,it's the air-raid system in the NFL. If that o-line can't protect him , he's going to get killed.

 

There have been 12 rookie QBs to throw for more than 20 TDs, and 9 have been this decade. Mayfield-like rookie passing seasons kinda do happen every year now. 

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On 6/25/2019 at 5:03 PM, Milkman said:

Nothing to see here guys. Just keep passing on him. It's only Tyreek Hill with an accurate cannon for an arm. Lolol

I’ve drafted him in every league I’m in. Crazy enough to think he could go for over 100 yards in an NFL game?

😏

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Josh Allen had two games where he rushed for over 100 yards and he had two other games where he totalled 99 and 95 yards rushing, so I fully expect that Murray will notch multiple games over 100 yards rushing in the 2019 season.

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speaking of the offense , Cards were in last place across the board in nearly every statistical category in 2018.

32nd in pts/for , 32nd in total yards, 32nd in 1st downs, 29th in pass attempts, 32nd in pass yards, 30th in TD, 28th in INT, 32nd in NYA, 28th in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards, 27th in rush TD, 32nd in ypa rushing,  32nd in percentage of drives ending in a score,  32nd in avg time per drive, 31st avg # of plays/drive, 32nd yet yards/drive, 32nd avg ptsscored/drive.\

and now you throw a rookie QB on top of that, with an offensive system that is a remake of the Mouse Davis chuck n duck offense that bombed in the 90s.

even if the Cards improve to 20th in every category listed above, they're STILL a mighty bad team. KM is going to get killed behind the absolute worst O-line in the NFL. defensive pressures are going to force him to make mistakes all to often.

 

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3 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

speaking of the offense , Cards were in last place across the board in nearly every statistical category in 2018.

32nd in pts/for , 32nd in total yards, 32nd in 1st downs, 29th in pass attempts, 32nd in pass yards, 30th in TD, 28th in INT, 32nd in NYA, 28th in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards, 27th in rush TD, 32nd in ypa rushing,  32nd in percentage of drives ending in a score,  32nd in avg time per drive, 31st avg # of plays/drive, 32nd yet yards/drive, 32nd avg ptsscored/drive.\

and now you throw a rookie QB on top of that, with an offensive system that is a remake of the Mouse Davis chuck n duck offense that bombed in the 90s.

even if the Cards improve to 20th in every category listed above, they're STILL a mighty bad team. KM is going to get killed behind the absolute worst O-line in the NFL. defensive pressures are going to force him to make mistakes all to often.

 

This is not just "throwing a rookie QB on top of what they had last year," and changing the offensive system. This is an entire new coaching staff, and almost a complete makeover of the offense. I have no idea how anyone can say the offensive line is going to be so horrible when the entire offensive line was hurt last year for long stretches of games. Not just one or two guys, the entire line.

The starting offensive line will probably be Humphries, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Gilbert. Last year, Humphries (knee) missed seven games,  Pugh (hand/knee) missed nine games, Shipley tore his ACL in training camp, Sweezy is new, and Gilbert (knee) missed 11 games. Basically, the entire offensive line was out last year for multiple games. 

So for the 5 offensive line positions, and 16 games, that's 80 possible starts. The probable starting line this year had a total of (9, 7, 0, 0, 5) games last year, or 21 games. How anyone can make any judgement based on last year and extrapolate to this year is beyond me.

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On ‎6‎/‎28‎/‎2019 at 4:42 PM, Concept Coop said:

I’ll go 3400/22 TD/16 INT and 700/6. 

Very similar for me: 3,350/22TD/17 INT and 640/6TD

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On 6/28/2019 at 3:42 PM, Concept Coop said:

I’ll go 3400/22 TD/16 INT and 700/6.

 

22 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Very similar for me: 3,350/22TD/17 INT and 640/6TD

Where would these projections have placed Murray in your main league's QB scoring last season?

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Kyler Murray is basically a smaller version of Michael Vick but instead of C level throwing skills he comes with A- throwing skills. 

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I’m intrigued here...with the week 1 job his, the whole point about QB’s in FF is upside.

We’ve seen rookie year breakouts from mobile QB’s like Cam Newton, RGIII, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.  We’ve seen rookie QB’s that have mobility (aren’t statues) like Carson Wentz, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen be productive.

You can always find a QB that produces, if he falls flat, just go get another one - tread water.  With Murray...they literally hired a HC with his skill set in mind.  I can also imagine that defenses will pay for bringing the house and attacking ARI’s subpar OL, as Murray darts through a gap or two for huge gains.

My #1 overdraft target.

 

Edited by TheDirtyWord

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1 hour ago, trader jake said:

 

Where would these projections have placed Murray in your main league's QB scoring last season?

QB13 - between Cam Newton and Tom Brady.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Kyler Murray is basically a smaller version of Michael Vick but instead of C level throwing skills he comes with A- throwing skills. 

he's a couple inches shorter, but only about 5 pounds lighter, he just needs to be smarter than Vick and not take hits

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On 7/9/2019 at 2:23 PM, trader jake said:

 

Where would these projections have placed Murray in your main league's QB scoring last season?

Without accounting for turnovers, QB12.  Knock 30 points off for turnovers, QB19.

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So what's a reasonable price for this guy.

I have Wentz as my backup in one league.  Would Wentz+2020 2nd (likely early) be too much?  Not enough?

Another league I have Russ as my only QB.  Would Russ+2020 2nd (likely late) do the job?

Hard to value this guy right now with the upside.

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On 7/7/2019 at 6:32 PM, kutta said:

I have no idea how anyone can say the offensive line is going to be so horrible when the entire offensive line was hurt last year for long stretches of games. Not just one or two guys, the entire line.

The starting offensive line will probably be Humphries, Pugh, Shipley, Sweezy, Gilbert. Last year, Humphries (knee) missed seven games,  Pugh (hand/knee) missed nine games, Shipley tore his ACL in training camp, Sweezy is new, and Gilbert (knee) missed 11 games. Basically, the entire offensive line was out last year for multiple games. 

So for the 5 offensive line positions, and 16 games, that's 80 possible starts. The probable starting line this year had a total of (9, 7, 0, 0, 5) games last year, or 21 games. How anyone can make any judgement based on last year and extrapolate to this year is beyond me.

You can make a judgement based strictly on talent and many have ranked the Cards O-Line low.

Arizona Cardinals not the worst, but right around it in Pro Football Focus’ 2019 offensive line rankings  Jul 10, 2019, 8:00am MDT

Quote

 

...They again have overhauled the offensive line heading into the 2019 season, the first under Kliff Kingsbury.

Steve Keim has tagged a group with a history of poor play, a litany of injury issues and short-term contracts to protect his prized rookie, Kyler Murray.

Now, Pro Football Focus has weighed in with their thoughts on each teams 2019 offensive line and maybe a bit unexpectedly, the Arizona Cardinals are not the worst, but they are not far off either:

30. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals’ offensive line was a shambles last year. They allowed the league’s second-most total pressures (218), the fourth-most hurries (142), the second-most hits (42) and the second-most sacks (34), all while they ranked dead last among teams in snaps played per pressure (2.6). And even though they added J.R. Sweezy and Marcus Gilbert over the offseason, you shouldn’t be surprised to hear that they’re still pretty thin upfront. Center Mason Cole allowed the second-most pressures among centers as a rookie, while J.R. Sweezy has allowed pressure on 5.7% of his snaps since 2016, which is tied for 60th among the 98 guards who have played at least 500 pass-blocking snaps in that three-year period.

Only the Houston Texans (31) and Miami Dolphins (32) are graded as worse.

 

I think the mobility of Murray will help but the O-Line is not good.

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