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QB Kyler Murray, ARZ (4 Viewers)

Milkman said:
And I think he has #1 QB in FF upside. Especially in 4pt passing TD leagues. 
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I completely agree with this. He's in an ideal offense for his skill set with a coach that loves him. The personnel groupings, particularly at WR, are Kingsbury specials. Murray will put enormous pressure on the defense every play, both with his arm and legs. My biggest concern is injury because the line play is questionable, but I love the talent and scheme.

The Cardinals will have high play volume and a rapid offensive tempo- very hard to defend.

Right now he is my QB7, but may bump him higher.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
So what's a reasonable price for this guy.

I have Wentz as my backup in one league.  Would Wentz+2020 2nd (likely early) be too much?  Not enough?

Another league I have Russ as my only QB.  Would Russ+2020 2nd (likely late) do the job?

Hard to value this guy right now with the upside.
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Both of those are too much (today).  If you're that high on Murray, send out a feeler offer of Wentz or Wilson for Murray/2020 2nd.  Chances are that's enough to get it done, but you can always counter straight up or add a sweetener if you absolutely have to.  I'd imagine that you don't have to.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
You can make a judgement based strictly on talent and many have ranked the Cards O-Line low.

Arizona Cardinals not the worst, but right around it in Pro Football Focus’ 2019 offensive line rankings  Jul 10, 2019, 8:00am MDT

I think the mobility of Murray will help but the O-Line is not good.
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I think they are being lazy.

I agree Cole wasn’t very good last year, but he wasn’t even supposed to play until Shipley went out. Shipley is back this year, and Cole may not even play center. So to single him out as an indication of how bad the line will be is just lazy analysis, IMO.

We’ll have to wait and see. My point is that yes, the line was horrendous last year. But literally every guy was hurt and every starter missed multiple games. It’s very hard to know how good or bad they will be this year, but you can’t use last year as a barometer.

 
kutta said:
I think they are being lazy.

I agree Cole wasn’t very good last year, but he wasn’t even supposed to play until Shipley went out. Shipley is back this year, and Cole may not even play center. So to single him out as an indication of how bad the line will be is just lazy analysis, IMO.

We’ll have to wait and see. My point is that yes, the line was horrendous last year. But literally every guy was hurt and every starter missed multiple games. It’s very hard to know how good or bad they will be this year, but you can’t use last year as a barometer.
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The thread is about K-Murray but if an O-Line has played well for years and is composed of top players it is not lazy to rank them high. 

Even factoring in injuries and a new coaching staff it is logical that a mirror image of an O-Line that has not:

  • played well
  • lacks cohesion of playing together over a period of time
  • and is not composed of top players
Logic would show that O-Line rank lower. 

Top O-Lines have played well together for long periods of time.  That is one of best indicators of predicting good performance in the future.  

Bringing it back to Murray.  He is going to help a lot to improve the sack and pressure stats and we hope the coaching will improve the poor play calling but the Cards O-Line deserves a low ranking because they lack the cohesion that top NFL O-Lines have established.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Wait...You think you need to add a 2nd to Russell Wilson to get Kyler Murray?  I Would need a 2nd with Murray to trade Wilson.  I havent followed this thread at all, but coming in on this post makes me think I am missing something or misreading your post somehow.  Wilson + 2020 2 for Murray?  

ETA FBGs dynasty ranking for the past 21 days (the cumulative ones) have Wilson and Wentz as 6/7, and Murray as 11.  None of the 4 guys with rankings posted have Murray over either one of them.
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This is during an ongoing FFPC startup and Murray went early 8th while I nabbed Wilson in the late 10th.

FFPC startup ADP has Murray at 7.8 as QB4 while Wilson is 9.9 as QB6.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
The thread is about K-Murray but if an O-Line has played well for years and is composed of top players it is not lazy to rank them high. 

Even factoring in injuries and a new coaching staff it is logical that a mirror image of an O-Line that has not:

  • played well
  • lacks cohesion of playing together over a period of time
  • and is not composed of top players
Logic would show that O-Line rank lower. 

Top O-Lines have played well together for long periods of time.  That is one of best indicators of predicting good performance in the future.  

Bringing it back to Murray.  He is going to help a lot to improve the sack and pressure stats and we hope the coaching will improve the poor play calling but the Cards O-Line deserves a low ranking because they lack the cohesion that top NFL O-Lines have established.
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I’m not saying the line will be good. I’m saying ranking them low based on last year is a mistake and lazy.

Ranking them low because they lack cohesion and experience is perfectly acceptable.

 
Appreciate the insights on the changes in the offensive line between last year and this year @kutta.

A related consideration I wonder about is the protection schemes in Kingsbury's offense. I don't ever watch Texas Tech, so I don't have a sense of how Kingsbury handled protections (as far as leaving RBs or TEs in etc.; here's a nice breakdown of the offense translating to the NFL but it doesn't say much about protections). I did some searches and mostly found conjecture that he'll likely combine NFL protection schemes into his offense. Under Kingsbury Texas Tech QBs were only sacked on 3.7% of drop backs (4th lowest in CFB) and knocked down on 9.5% (8th lowest). But is that because of poor defenses in the Big 12, or characteristics of the air raid under Kingsbury? Honestly asking here, if anyone has a better info and/or gets to watch more Big 12 football.

 
The ARI offense in 2018 was soooo bad... how bad was it?

- 225 total points - 32nd

- 2523 passing yards (32nd) & 4.6 passing yards per attempt (32nd)

-1342 rushing yards (32nd) & 3.8 rushing yards per attempt (32nd)

So, not only did the Cards have the least passing yards, they were also the least efficient.  They also had the least rushing yards, and were the least efficient.  The last time that happened was in 1977, to the lowly expansion team, the Bucs.  In that season, the QB's combined for 3 TD's and 30 INT's, their top RB had 436 rushing yards, and their top WR had 35 catches.  Their entire offense accounted for 7 TD's!  The following year, the Bucs took the 1st QB in the draft - Doug Williams.  The Bucs did better their record from 2-12 to 5-11, but they once again finished dead last in passing yards and yards per attempt.

Fast forward to 2019 and Kyler Murray.  While I have no doubt he has the skills to become an elite QB in the NFL, to project him as a QB1 in year one is fantasy.  His WR corps is comprised of Methuselah and very hopeful youngsters, and the TE's are underwhelming.  He does have a safety valve in David Johnson, and I fully expect DJ to challenge for the league lead in RB catches.  I see good times ahead for Kyler and his trio of promising WR's, but there will be growing pains in 2019.  A great dynasty QB, but a QB2 in redraft.  And for those projecting 40 TD's, the only way he nears that is if he gets about 15 on the ground. 

 
TheWinz said:
His WR corps is comprised of Methuselah and very hopeful youngsters
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Methuselah is currently ahead of the pace that Jerry Rice set at the same age for total receptions, and the hopeful youngsters have essentially been handpicked to fit this scheme.

 
Dave Pasch‏Verified account @DavePasch

I promised myself I wouldn’t overreact to anything at training camp this year....but it’s gonna be hard to keep that promise after watching Kyler Murray today. Wow.#AZCardinals

7:24 PM - 25 Jul 2019

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Dave Pasch‏Verified account @DavePasch

I promised myself I wouldn’t overreact to anything at training camp this year....but it’s gonna be hard to keep that promise after watching Kyler Murray today. Wow.#AZCardinals

7:24 PM - 25 Jul 2019
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LOTS of this kind of talk on local radio. Everyone who has seen him has said he looks absolutely amazing. The buzz is really building here.

 
This guy is not easy to acquire.  Offered Wentz straight up for him in one league and Russell Wilson + 2020 2nd for him in another and both were rejected without counter.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
This guy is not easy to acquire.  Offered Wentz straight up for him in one league and Russell Wilson + 2020 2nd for him in another and both were rejected without counter.
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Offer more........I would at least......

 
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Dr. Dan said:
This is a terrible comparison.

Would someone have taken Wentz for Mahomes straight up 12 months ago? Possibly. Wilson and a 2nd? That probably would have been a snap accept.
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That one is going to hurt if you accept that it. It's not a terrible comparison. It's just ahead of the times. Let the train pass if you want......I'm on and it's not slowing down from here. 

 
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cloppbeast said:
I know where this going....

Pointing out there's a difference between a beast and a guy you think will be a beast.  
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Get on bro. It's happening. Players like this are ok to over pay for a little now. He'll be untouchable 6 games into the season. 

 
I can admit his ceiling is very high, and possibly QB1. But he hasn't done a thing yet in the NFL. His current value is not equal to Mahomes, nor should it be

 
Milkman said:
Get on bro. It's happening. Players like this are ok to over pay for a little now. He'll be untouchable 6 games into the season. 
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How you feel about this player has nothing to do with whether his upside is realized. His athletic ability won't help him with the nuances of playing quarterback. No one can deny the kid's potential, but its the things like quick reasoning, and work ethic which determine whether he lives up to his expectations. Maybe you know these things already but I don't. 

 
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Milkman said:
Fair enough but I'm right. 
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I think you could be, but there are a lot of things we don't know- as clopp said above. His work ethic and QB intelligence are where I am mostly concerned. That and I wonder how much he just relies on his athleticism, and that won't cut it in the NFL. He can throw though, that's for sure.

An observation I've made that seems to hold true often is that QBs, typically rushing QBs, who have a really good rookie/1st season tend to have some significant let downs the following season. Whether it be trying to rely less on their athleticism and understand the game more, or teams figure them out, or whatever it might be. A few names that come to mind: Vick, Mariota, RGIII, Kaepernick. Murray seems better than any of these QBs as a rusher and passer, but I do expect a pretty strong rookie year. Where he goes from there is where I have reservations.

 
cloppbeast said:
How you feel about this player has nothing to do with whether his upside is realized. His athletic ability won't help him with the nuances of playing quarterback. No one can deny the kid's potential, but its the things like quick reasoning, and work ethic which determine whether a quarterback lives up to his expectations. Maybe you know these things already but I don't. 
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Yeah I know. I'm just excited. Kyler's fit in Kingsbury's offense is on par with Tyreek's fit with Mahomes. It's one of those rare instances where everything in the universe comes together perfectly. It's Halley's comet. 

 
Milkman said:
Yeah I know. I'm just excited. Kyler's fit in Kingsbury's offense is on par with Tyreek's fit with Mahomes. It's one of those rare instances where everything in the universe comes together perfectly. It's Halley's comet. 
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It happens. Mistakes have learned me to tread cautiously. Saved me from Ronald Jones ii last year. But maybe you've had a better time planting your flag than me.

But I'm sure you can admit Carson Wentz+ or Russell Wilson+ is a bit irrational based on probability. You're basically depending on Murray being in Luck/Mahomes territory for trade to pay off.

 
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The problem with paying more than Wilson/2nd for Murray is that even if you are right and he does become an elite top-tier QB you’ve bought close to his ceiling, and aren’t realizing a ton of value (in 1QB leagues, of course).

Get him with a mid-1st of your own, that’s fantasy gold.

 
cloppbeast said:
It happens. Mistakes have learned me to tread cautiously. Saved me from Ronald Jones ii last year. But maybe you've had a better time planting your flag than me.

But I'm sure you can admit Carson Wentz+ or Russell Wilson+ is a bit irrational based on probability. You're basically depending on Murray being in Luck/Mahomes territory for trade to pay off.
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Yes he has to hit to be worth it and nothing is a sure thing. He is on the small side so injuries are a concern when he starts to take some of those hits. I'm not a Wentz fan. He's just as much of an injury risk imo. Wilson is on a run first team so although he's efficient his upside is capped. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
 A few names that come to mind: Vick, Mariota, RGIII, Kaepernick.
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How many of those guys suffered serious injuries their first season that either ended or shortened their careers?  Was Vick the only one who managed to play somewhat effectively into his thirties?

Before anyone gets on me - Mariota isn't the answer in Tenn or anywhere else.  And even if Kap didn't get black balled by the league he'd probably be a backup.

 
I don't think Wentz or Wilson/2nd is a drastic overpay for him in a 1 QB league based on market value.  When you can plug in Rivers or Winston or get Big Ben or Brees cheap from youthers there's little reason to settle for a T1.5 QB.  May as well swing for the fences, because that's the only way to make a difference at the position.  If you miss it's only a strike, maybe just a foul ball, and at worst it's a KO and you bat again in 3 innings.  I'm not personally all that high on Murray but no question if he does actually hit he could re-set the rankings.  Hell Murray (89) is ahead of both Wilson (91) and Wentz (94) in DLF's ADP.

 
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Hankmoody said:
I don't think Wentz or Wilson/2nd is a drastic overpay for him in a 1 QB league based on market value.  When you can plug in Rivers or Winston or get Big Ben or Brees cheap from youthers there's little reason to settle for a T1.5 QB.  May as well swing for the fences, because that's the only way to make a difference at the position.  If you miss it's only a strike, maybe just a foul ball, and at worst it's a KO and you bat again in 3 innings.  I'm not personally all that high on Murray but no question if he does actually hit he could re-set the rankings.  Hell Murray (89) is ahead of both Wilson (91) and Wentz (94) in DLF's ADP.
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An argument for an older back end qb1 is not an argument for Murray imo. Why use an asset at all to get Murray when Roethlisberger is so cheap? You'd be better off trading Wentz for a RB or WR with potential.

As for DLF, perhaps theyre wrong. If they represent the consnsus, perhaps it's wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

 
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pantherclub said:
i am pretty sure milkman doesnt get how this game is played 
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Nah, he can have his opinions... I'm just wondering what the upside is in trading perhaps the most consistent top 10 QB in the league, plus picks?

He would have to be BETTER than Wilson just to break even.

 
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matuski said:
Russell Wilson has been a perennial top 10 QB, and if I am not mistaken has finished #1 and #3 within the last 4 seasons.
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427 pass attempts for Wilson last year. Seattle has made a conscious decision to turn back into a run first team. I'll pass. 

I'm not going to be able to talk you guys into valuing Kyler as high as I do. No worries.

I'm happy to wait and let Kyler Murray do my talking for me. 

 
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Milkman said:
427 pass attempts for Wilson last year. Seattle has made a conscious decision to turn back into a run first team. I'll pass. 

I'm not going to be able to talk you guys into valuing Kyler as high as I do. No worries.

I'm happy to wait and let Kyler Murray do my talking for me. 
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is this a soulfly alias?

 
Milkman said:
427 pass attempts for Wilson last year. Seattle has made a conscious decision to turn back into a run first team. I'll pass. 

I'm not going to be able to talk you guys into valuing Kyler as high as I do. No worries.

I'm happy to wait and let Kyler Murray do my talking for me. 
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So last year was really around Wilson's floor.

What is Murray's floor for you?

 
I'm not 100% with Milkman on all of this but I'm sort of in agreement on Wilson.

His numbers are a bit deceptive. If you think his TD/attempt ratio is sustainable then you're fine. But Seattle was 32nd in attempts last year (by 10 to Tennessee and 28, 28! to Miami. He had one 300+ yard passing game last year (and another almost).

 
matuski said:
So last year was really around Wilson's floor.

What is Murray's floor for you?
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Well with Kingsbury stating he wants to run more plays than anybody and the defense projecting to be as bad as it was last year......

I don't see a scenario without an injury where he has less than 590 pass attempts this year. 

 
Milkman said:
Well with Kingsbury stating he wants to run more plays than anybody and the defense projecting to be as bad as it was last year......

I don't see a scenario without an injury where he has less than 590 pass attempts this year. 
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Chip Kelly 2.0?

 
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