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KarmaPolice

FanDuel Week 15

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How about let's forget about this snoozer of a MNF game, and talk about what looks like the worst week of games on a main slate this season.  

No games currently over 50pts.  

About the only games I like on first glace are Dallas/Indy and NE/Pitts.  Just about everything else makes me want to throw up in my mouth a little.  

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I was surprised the WFFC prize pool was only $4MM.  I assumed with all these satellites the it would be closer to $10MM.  This is pretty close to the prize pool for the Milly in week 1.

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1 hour ago, Galileo said:

Two losing weeks in a row...I am debating whether to double down this week or just stop while I am even for the year.

Triple down.

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8 hours ago, Galileo said:

Two losing weeks in a row...I am debating whether to double down this week or just stop while I am even for the year.

No risk it no biscuit.

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Thoughts on my FPPC entry?

Flacco

Cook

Mixon

Diggs - I would really like to get away from having Diggs with Cook in the lineup.

Brown

Cooper

Cook

Barkley

Bears

Something is telling me to get A. Brown in the lineup which would mean dropping from Cook to V. Davis/Brate/Ingram.  Brown is so due for one of those 3 TD weeks.

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38 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Thoughts on my FPPC entry?

Flacco

Cook

Mixon

Diggs - I would really like to get away from having Diggs with Cook in the lineup.

Brown

Cooper

Cook

Barkley

Bears

Something is telling me to get A. Brown in the lineup which would mean dropping from Cook to V. Davis/Brate/Ingram.  Brown is so due for one of those 3 TD weeks.

I was thinking the similarly about A. Brown, and I have 4 of those guys in my preliminary placeholder line up.  Is Flacco playing??

Carr/Mixon, Cohen, Carson/Brown, Edelman, Cooper/Cook/NYG

I can't believe I currently have Carr in a line up!  

 

 

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Guys I'm using this week:

Brees, Trubisky, Goff, Wilson, Fournette, Gurley, White, Cook, Martin, Westbrook, Woods, Schuster, K. Allen, Kelce, V. Davis, Gronk.

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3 hours ago, Galileo said:

I was thinking the similarly about A. Brown, and I have 4 of those guys in my preliminary placeholder line up.  Is Flacco playing??

Carr/Mixon, Cohen, Carson/Brown, Edelman, Cooper/Cook/NYG

I can't believe I currently have Carr in a line up!  

 

 

Flacco not playing back to drawing board

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On 12/10/2018 at 6:17 PM, KarmaPolice said:

talk about what looks like the worst week of games on a main slate this season.  

You're sure right about that...

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69 entires onto tomorrow night's mega Q.  Going be busy doing lineups.  How many lineups should I be targeting?  12, 23, 35, or 69?

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22 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

69 entires onto tomorrow night's mega Q.  Going be busy doing lineups.  How many lineups should I be targeting?  12, 23, 35, or 69?

####. Gordon availability making this difficult and there will be last minute work either way

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On 12/12/2018 at 4:23 PM, BassNBrew said:

69 entires onto tomorrow night's mega Q.  Going be busy doing lineups.  How many lineups should I be targeting?  12, 23, 35, or 69?

Went with 69 unique lineups.  Only 100 tickets available or about 0.8% of the entires.  Very possible that all 69 mis.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Went with 69 unique lineups.  Only 100 tickets available or about 0.8% of the entires.  Very possible that all 69 mis.

Fwiw, I'd have done 69 lineups.  Good luck!

I have a longshot single entry qualifier ticket tonight.  The lineup I built today matches a DFS "pro" not on this site, which normally would make me think I'm on the right track....but now wondering if a bunch of people are going to use it.

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2 hours ago, Bobcat10 said:

Fwiw, I'd have done 69 lineups.  Good luck!

I have a longshot single entry qualifier ticket tonight.  The lineup I built today matches a DFS "pro" not on this site, which normally would make me think I'm on the right track....but now wondering if a bunch of people are going to use it.

Lol. 69 unique entries and not one within 5 pts of cashing 

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8 minutes ago, KennyRogersHasGas said:

Here's what I'm looking at:

Carr

Cook

Mixon

Brown

Beasley

Cook

Barkley

NYG

 

Thoughts?  I'm pretty new to this...

Tournament or a “cash” game like 50/50 or double up? You’re missing a wr. Beasley hasn’t really done much the last few weeks but is an ok tournament dart throw. Wouldn’t rely on him for a cash game. 

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Question for tournaments:

I know this sounds silly, but how unique are your weekly lineups? For example, I was looking at predicted ownership, and almost all my players in the Sunday Million contest are either #1 or in the top five for predicted ownership. So how unique do you make your lineups? Take Amari Cooper. He's predicted as the highest owned WR by a giant margin. But fact is, he has as good a chance as any WR to finish #1 this week. How many low-owned players do you use per ticket?

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

Question for tournaments:

I know this sounds silly, but how unique are your weekly lineups? For example, I was looking at predicted ownership, and almost all my players in the Sunday Million contest are either #1 or in the top five for predicted ownership. So how unique do you make your lineups? Take Amari Cooper. He's predicted as the highest owned WR by a giant margin. But fact is, he has as good a chance as any WR to finish #1 this week. How many low-owned players do you use per ticket?

I think the last strategy article I read suggested 1-3 positions under 5% owned for bigger gpps, and easy positions to gain leverage at are QB, te, Def since we only play one and QB scoring is fairly flat and the other 2 are pretty volatile positions.  

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I think the issue with this week is there seems to be even less solid plays than usual for gpps, and I assume a majority of people are staring at the Dallas/Indy and NE/Pitts games.   Where do we look for some low % options when there are some other trashy games.  Gpp ideas I was going to look deeper into:

  • Rodgers + Adams.  Way too much talent to be this low owned, and the one way to beat Chicago is attacking the outside.  
  • Game stack GB/Chicago or Seat/SF.   Something like Rodgers/Adams/Cohen/A.Rob a fairly lowed owned option with a ton of talent/upside.  Could do something similar with Seattle/SF - maybe Wilson/Lockett/Kittle?
  • Low owned guys I wrote down:  Wilson, Brady, Ryan, Rodgers, Carson, Dixon/Edwards, D.Martin, Lockett, Gordon, Pettis, Gallup, Uzomah, Brate, McDonald, Firkser
  • It just might be a week to stay chalky for the most part, but try a couple of low owned one-offs.  

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Also, I posted a couple weeks ago, but it's always a good reminder - don't be afraid to leave money on the table.  One of the pods brought this up again, and I think they said that running stats, something like 80% of LUs are within a couple hundred of using all the cap because that's how most optimizers are spitting out LUs.  Their point was if you leave $600 on the table, you are probably instantly different from 80% of the lineups in a gpp.  

Another pod brought up this week that it's also a good idea to think about the builds people are putting together for the most part and just forcing yourself into another build, even if it's with chalkier guys. Especially with the injuries, it's been popular to go high and low - ie a LU with Zeke/Barkley/Samuels/ + Adams/Sutton/ last week.   It was probably a good idea last week to go Middle with something like Zeke/Jones/Cooper/HIlton/? - basically 1 high priced and 4 mid priced guys instead of 3 high and two low.  Not perfect examples, but you get the idea.  

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5 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Question for tournaments:

I know this sounds silly, but how unique are your weekly lineups? For example, I was looking at predicted ownership, and almost all my players in the Sunday Million contest are either #1 or in the top five for predicted ownership. So how unique do you make your lineups? Take Amari Cooper. He's predicted as the highest owned WR by a giant margin. But fact is, he has as good a chance as any WR to finish #1 this week. How many low-owned players do you use per ticket?

I just saw that.  I have 0 clue how FD actually dropped his price after last week.  Here's the rub though - in the past 4 weeks he has exactly the same number of sub-10pt games as he does 34pt games.  I also looked at pts/g allowed, and interestingly Indy has allowed the 2nd fewest pts/g to WRs over the last 6 weeks - averaging just 18.5pts/g over that time.  

The hard part this week is that he is probably the only WR in that 6K-7K range that has that 35pt upside, but we know he has that floor.  I think the play is to take a hard stand on him.   We see how highly owned he is projected to be, so I think you either fade him or go way over the field and play him in 50-60%+ of your LUs.  

 

Here is a 3 mid priced RB gpp LU that I don't mind at all:  Brady - Mixon/Cook/Brieda or Wilson - JuJu/Edelman/Cooper - Gronk - Chicago

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Here is a 3 mid priced RB gpp LU that I don't mind at all:  Brady - Mixon/Cook/Brieda or Wilson - JuJu/Edelman/Cooper - Gronk - Chicago

Given how weak this week's slate is, and the scarcity of talent at the top, I want to go chalky with my gpp lineups this week.

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5 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Given how weak this week's slate is, and the scarcity of talent at the top, I want to go chalky with my gpp lineups this week.

Maybe we are saying the same thing, but my point was that LU was pretty chalky as far as player ownership projections go - 2 top 5 RBs, 3 top 8 WRs, top 3 TE, and top 4 Def,  but it was a different (admittedly scary) construction - ie using something like Mixon/Cook instead of Barkley/Samuels and still having a lot of exposure to the only 50+pt total game on the slate with Brady/Gronk/Edelman/JuJu

 

I get the feeling that for once in the last few weeks we are not in agreement on the slate.   I think its different from that last few weeks in that there is only one high total game (with no teams projected over 30pts) and the rest are junky instead of having 3-4 really high total games.  To make matters worse, one of the teams in the high total game is one that isn't opposed to spreading the ball to 12 different players.  What I am thinking now is to either try to find ways to get low ownership guys from that game to take stabs on - Brady,  a NE Rb, McDonald, Gordon or to decide on another game on the slate to hammer and hope that it surprises people and shoots out (GB/Chic, Seattle/SF, Oak/Cin?) and use that with NE/Pitts guys.   My gut this week since there seems to be only one route to go on the slate is to go more YOLO on gpps and hope for the best.  

Edited by KarmaPolice
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I mean, we are looking at a week where Rodgers is projected to have 1/4 the ownership and Brady about 1/2 the ownership as guys like L.Jackson and J.Allen.   I can't ignore that either one of those old guys still have the ability to go off.  

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Tevin Coleman is somewhat interesting. Matchup is good, favorites at home, Ito Smith questionable (if ruled out I think Coleman’s ownership will skyrocket). 

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I mean, we are looking at a week where Rodgers is projected to have 1/4 the ownership and Brady about 1/2 the ownership as guys like L.Jackson and J.Allen.   I can't ignore that either one of those old guys still have the ability to go off.  

I really like this point.  May need to revisit my lineup.  Thoughts on this

Carr

Cook

Mixon

Theilen

Nelson

Cooper

Cook

Barkley

Bears

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5 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I really like this point.  May need to revisit my lineup.  Thoughts on this

Carr

Cook

Mixon

Theilen

Nelson

Cooper

Cook

Barkley

Bears

I like it - pretty ballsy fading the NE/Pitts game.  I had a similar thought about putting in a LU that faded that or just had a NE Rb and instead using the low owned Seat/SF as the late afternoon hammer.  

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16 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I like it - pretty ballsy fading the NE/Pitts game.  I had a similar thought about putting in a LU that faded that or just had a NE Rb and instead using the low owned Seat/SF as the late afternoon hammer.  

Thanks for the feedback. You want to hear stupid...I changed it because all the players were from 1pm games and that wouldn’t be a winner. Also didn’t like having cook and Thielen in the lineup together. Interested in your thoughts on that

Swapped out Mixon Thielen and Nelson for samuals a brown and Gordon 

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14 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Thanks for the feedback. You want to hear stupid...I changed it because all the players were from 1pm games and that wouldn’t be a winner. Also didn’t like having cook and Thielen in the lineup together. Interested in your thoughts on that

Swapped out Mixon Thielen and Nelson for samuals a brown and Gordon 

I don't mind this, and try this a bit in gpps, especially on a week like this where I only like 4-5 teams.  I will have a main stack and then correlations from other teams that I think have a chance to be higher scoring on the week.   I am buiding some ideas now and have my main stack and then things like Martin/Cook, Cook/Diggs, Gronk/Gordon, Samuels/Brown, etc.. paired up with it.    FD is weighted towards TDs, and it's not unreasonable to think that Minn puts up 3-4 TDs and Cook and Thilen combine for 3 of them.   It makes the gpp LUs more boom/bust for sure, but that's what I am usually looking for.  If you are playing a bunch of tix and are treating them more like cash+ LUs, then I could see backing off this idea a bit and spreading it out more.   Here is my current placeholder:  Rodgers - Martin/Cook/Carson - Brown/Adams/C.Davis - Cook - Minn.   Two player correlations from 3 teams + C.Davis/Brown/Carson.  

To be fair, you seem to be having a lot more success with this than I have this year, so I would go with your gut.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I don't mind this, and try this a bit in gpps, especially on a week like this where I only like 4-5 teams.  I will have a main stack and then correlations from other teams that I think have a chance to be higher scoring on the week.   I am buiding some ideas now and have my main stack and then things like Martin/Cook, Cook/Diggs, Gronk/Gordon, Samuels/Brown, etc.. paired up with it.    FD is weighted towards TDs, and it's not unreasonable to think that Minn puts up 3-4 TDs and Cook and Thilen combine for 3 of them.   It makes the gpp LUs more boom/bust for sure, but that's what I am usually looking for.  If you are playing a bunch of tix and are treating them more like cash+ LUs, then I could see backing off this idea a bit and spreading it out more.   Here is my current placeholder:  Rodgers - Martin/Cook/Carson - Brown/Adams/C.Davis - Cook - Minn.   Two player correlations from 3 teams + C.Davis/Brown/Carson.  

To be fair, you seem to be having a lot more success with this than I have this year, so I would go with your gut.  

Thanks for the feedback. I’ve been running bad lately as nothing has been working.  I’m working on a single wffc lineup and want something with upside. Really feel this week the best lineup will be one with players from different teams other than qb / wr

wondering if ninny is going to go run heavy this week?

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Thanks for the feedback. I’ve been running bad lately as nothing has been working.  I’m working on a single wffc lineup and want something with upside. Really feel this week the best lineup will be one with players from different teams other than qb / wr

wondering if ninny is going to go run heavy this week?

That is a big one for the week with the OC firing.  Zimmer feels like an old school pound the ball more, but they also seemed to underutilize Thielen lately too.  Gruden feels like that to me too- I think he'd rather just run 40 times. 

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Working on my first night shift and finally have some time to pull my research together. Coming up with this for my cash LU, projected on the line-up optimizer at 135.3 points:

QB/ Brady, RB/ Elliott - D. Cook, WR/ Smith-Schuster - Boyd - Cooper, TE/ Ebron, Flex/ J. Samuels, DEF/ Vikings

Another week where I wish I had done more early in the week to use the contests for the entire Thurs-Mon slate. Threw a few GPP's together there just because I liked the Thursday night game, but, I think one of them is already dead in the water. No question that the NE/Pitt game will be uber-chalk for the main slate, as well it should. One thing, though, that I did take from Hester's trend spotting article is that, after NE-Pitt, the next game with two fast-paced offenses is the TB-Bal game. Not sure who all you want to try and pull from that game though. Brate seems like a decent sneaky GPP option as the middle of the field seems to be where the Ravens passing defense can be had. 

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2 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Working on my first night shift and finally have some time to pull my research together. Coming up with this for my cash LU, projected on the line-up optimizer at 135.3 points:

QB/ Brady, RB/ Elliott - D. Cook, WR/ Smith-Schuster - Boyd - Cooper, TE/ Ebron, Flex/ J. Samuels, DEF/ Vikings

Another week where I wish I had done more early in the week to use the contests for the entire Thurs-Mon slate. Threw a few GPP's together there just because I liked the Thursday night game, but, I think one of them is already dead in the water. No question that the NE/Pitt game will be uber-chalk for the main slate, as well it should. One thing, though, that I did take from Hester's trend spotting article is that, after NE-Pitt, the next game with two fast-paced offenses is the TB-Bal game. Not sure who all you want to try and pull from that game though. Brate seems like a decent sneaky GPP option as the middle of the field seems to be where the Ravens passing defense can be had. 

I have a bit of Brate for that reason.  I don't feel like I can play anything else from TB on the road in Balt, and I dont feel like I can pair anybody with Jackson either.  

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I have a bit of Brate for that reason.  I don't feel like I can play anything else from TB on the road in Balt, and I dont feel like I can pair anybody with Jackson either.  

May trot Dixon out in a few GPP's as he seems to be the flavor of the day now over Edwards. Thinking a little bit about Crabtree as well. 

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19 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:
On 12/15/2018 at 1:01 AM, jdoggydogg said:

Given how weak this week's slate is, and the scarcity of talent at the top, I want to go chalky with my gpp lineups this week.

 

I get the feeling that for once in the last few weeks we are not in agreement on the slate. 

I don't think we have many disagreements. I do think that most of the expensive WRs should be avoided this week.

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2 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Threw a few GPP's together there just because I liked the Thursday night game, but, I think one of them is already dead in the water.

Feels like the second Thursday in a row that really screwed up some teams early on for me.

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2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I don't think we have many disagreements. I do think that most of the expensive WRs should be avoided this week.

You don't like the NE/Pitts game, or you talking more Julio/Adams/Thielen?  

Trust me, I am not saying that guys like Adams are in great spots.  When I have access to ownership projections, what I usually look for is either what I think are low owned good plays/matchups (maybe like a Balt RB this week) or a studs that stick out as low owned b/c of appeared bad matchups, etc..   Basically it started when I had Julio in the Seattle game that everybody thought he would be totally shut out for a couple years ago and I had a good week in gpps.   Not saying I don't take stabs at scrubs in gpps, but what I mainly focus on (again if I have access to %) is "stud" in bad spots, especially WRs.  Basically what I am saying is they are projecting that a Rodgers/Adams combo will be lower owned than a Driskell/Boyd combo.  Sign me up for that 1st pair more times than not.   

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Such low pay lines this week in cash games and I stank up the joint for a 3rd week in a row.  Should have been easy pickings and I missed them all.  :(   So frustrating...  

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Was there a TE that did anything this week? 

Dud week despite being on the right track with getting 3 6k rbs in a lu and go for some wrs.  Had 0 Mack or Falcons though, and when I did have a couple guys like Henry/Carson/Cook, they weren't together or they were with a lineup of single digit scorers.  Oh well, on to next week. 

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