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KarmaPolice

DraftKings Week 15

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Bad week as far as Vegas totals.  Lack of studs at the top, so it might be chalky as well for guys like Barkley and Zeke since they are the only studs at the top.   

Balt, Atl, Indy are the highest totals.  About the only games I like right now are the Dallas/Indy and NE/Pitts games.  

 

As far as non-studs at RB, I like Cook and Mixon at home, and Carson vs. SF.    I think Dixon is a solid gpp play too at sub4K.

Edited by KarmaPolice

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One thing that a podcast brought up that I thought was interesting.  Especially with the injuries, a lot of people are going studs and scrubs - ie D.Hamilton/J.Samuels and then Barkley/Adams - stuff like that.   They mentioned that because of this, a solid gpp construction would be to go mostly middle of the road with RBs and WRs in your LU.  

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How have you guys been doing the last few weeks?  I was crushing it for the first half of the season or so.  Having a lot more trouble these last few weeks.

A buddy mentioned this might happen as he contends DFS gets tougher towards the end of the year as a lot of the bad players' bankrolls are tapped out so there are a higher percentage of competent players.  Any truth to this?

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How have you guys been doing the last few weeks?  I was crushing it for the first half of the season or so.  Having a lot more trouble these last few weeks.

A buddy mentioned this might happen as he contends DFS gets tougher towards the end of the year as a lot of the bad players' bankrolls are tapped out so there are a higher percentage of competent players.  Any truth to this?

I feel like I am doing about the same the past few weeks as I was at the beginning of the season.  I only play GPPs, so it is generally a slow drain over time on the bankroll, but I did hit one a little lucky a couple weeks ago that paid for the whole season.

I don't know if it is tougher or not, but I still feel like if you aren't creating 150 lineups that allows you to utilize guys nobody else is on that just happen to hit as a lottery ticket that week, then you are just fighting to stay even.  That's for GPPs obviously.  Someone else will have to chime in on cash games.

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7 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I feel like I am doing about the same the past few weeks as I was at the beginning of the season.  I only play GPPs, so it is generally a slow drain over time on the bankroll, but I did hit one a little lucky a couple weeks ago that paid for the whole season.

I don't know if it is tougher or not, but I still feel like if you aren't creating 150 lineups that allows you to utilize guys nobody else is on that just happen to hit as a lottery ticket that week, then you are just fighting to stay even.  That's for GPPs obviously.  Someone else will have to chime in on cash games.

Yeah I've just been mostly grinding away cash games with a handful of lineups.  Through Thanksgiving or so could pretty consistently cash with at least 5 of 6 lineups.  I think only 1 or 2 weeks in the first 11 where I didn't have a positive ROI often by a lot.

But last 3 weeks it's been a lot tougher.  Lucky to hit the cash line with 1 or 2 lineups and a net loss 3 weeks in a row.

Totally possible it's just random variance but was wondering if anyone else has noticed the same thing.

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Having a hard time putting together a lineup I like for cash this week in the main slate. Other than Zeke and Barkley don't really like many other position players for their price or matchup.

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23 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah I've just been mostly grinding away cash games with a handful of lineups.  Through Thanksgiving or so could pretty consistently cash with at least 5 of 6 lineups.  I think only 1 or 2 weeks in the first 11 where I didn't have a positive ROI often by a lot.

But last 3 weeks it's been a lot tougher.  Lucky to hit the cash line with 1 or 2 lineups and a net loss 3 weeks in a row.

Totally possible it's just random variance but was wondering if anyone else has noticed the same thing.

Will be interested to see how you do rest of season.  I think this could be normal variance, but it does make sense that a small percentage of fish would be out of the water this late in the season.  I know I usually am.

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13 hours ago, Caesar said:

Will be interested to see how you do rest of season.  I think this could be normal variance, but it does make sense that a small percentage of fish would be out of the water this late in the season.  I know I usually am.

I have the other end of this I think- haven’t played DK much and am eligible for beginner contests. Not as many new people this late in the year maybe? I’ll be digging for overlay, especially in the $25/$50/$100 matches, and as of now there will be a lot. Some guaranteed double ups in that range don’t have anyone entered yet for Thursday single game. Only one week in but going to try my best to hit the bigger money contests so I can maximize my beginner plays thru the end of the season. Of course this means I could lose faster, but I’m playing with house money so I’m willing to go after it a little. 

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So basically focusing on main slate cash games here, and I can’t decide how to craft it this week.  After several iterations I’ve found it’s hard to find the cheap hit- Pettis at 4400 stands out and I don’t want to go any lower than that. Kind of takes Jax out of play, unless i put my faith into Mullens. Yuck. I’m not so hot on zeke and Barkley this week, but find it hard to go with juicy matchups fournette and DJ. Also like mixon and Carson as KP said. Leaning this right now but kind of hate it. 

Dak

carson

fournette

pettis

dede

juju

gronk

mixon

lions

eta still tinkering:

dak/fournette/Dj/Gordon/Pettis/Lockett/brate/mixon/atl

Edited by Snorkelson

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On 12/11/2018 at 12:55 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

How have you guys been doing the last few weeks?  I was crushing it for the first half of the season or so.  Having a lot more trouble these last few weeks.

A buddy mentioned this might happen as he contends DFS gets tougher towards the end of the year as a lot of the bad players' bankrolls are tapped out so there are a higher percentage of competent players.  Any truth to this?

First half of the season I was winning close to 100% of my cash lineups with a few tournament placements here and there (only quarter arcade so nothing big).  I built up my bankroll to about 4x deposit and now I'm back down to about 1.5x initial deposit.  Most of that decline has been since thanksgiving.  Maybe it is tougher since I noticed most of my cash lineups are scoring roughly the same totals and now all of a sudden I'm not cashing.  I also haven't been paying as much attention because it starts to become a drag after week 8 or so.  I think the season starts weighing on people a little and people either give up or aren't as interested (me), so it makes sense that it becomes a little more difficult.  

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Here's what I came up with for cash on a first thought going Thur-Mon

Josh Allen

Gurley, Jaylen Samuels, Edwards

Fitzgerald, Curits Samuel, Woods

Cook

Vikings

A couple notes as my thoughts and I'd appreciate someone telling me I'm wrong ha.  Josh Allen because it's an easier matchup and he's a running QB at home against a bad Lions defense.  Jaylen Samuels because he gets catches although a TD might be the only way he reaches 3x so I'm not as comfortable with him.  Gus Edwards because they play Tampa and the Baltimore D should be able to shut that down leaving good game script.  Fitzgerald because Atlanta isn't that great and he gets his targets, they'll have to throw to keep up.  Curtis Samuel because he's automatic these past 4 weeks or so.  Woods because it's against the Eagles secondary that is miserable right now.  Jared Cook because he's the best option on that offense and Carr likes throwing.  

I really didn't look at a lot of other players during this creation but it's a first thought who stood out kind of lineup.  I'll fiddle with it still and see what I come up with but that's where I'm at for cash.  

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On 12/11/2018 at 2:55 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

How have you guys been doing the last few weeks?  I was crushing it for the first half of the season or so.  Having a lot more trouble these last few weeks.

A buddy mentioned this might happen as he contends DFS gets tougher towards the end of the year as a lot of the bad players' bankrolls are tapped out so there are a higher percentage of competent players.  Any truth to this?

Not well (play on fan duel).  I've turned $1600 into $600 and about $1000 in tickets.  Bleeding away $1000 for the same in tickets is about a 20% loss IMO.  In the beginning of the year I was getting far more ticket return for my investment.  Hasn't been as much overlay and FD is forcing us to the single day game which is a losing proposition.  Start of my downfall was hitting on a lineup that spit a $36K prize 20 ways and rather than cashing it out, FD had a playoff for the prize.  Ended up losing money on a perfect lineup.

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

@Zyphros- I like a lot of that, but there is coachspeak and buzz about Dixon getting more run this week for Balt. 

I started hearing a lot of that after I posted as well, I think Gus will still get some grind it out type of work, just more dependent on how much now.  It's a little more uncomfortable now but there doesn't seem to be a 1 for 1 type of swap I'm liking right now.  Maybe Tevin Coleman at 200 cheaper but that's not exactly striking confidence either.  Also somehow Cam is only $100 more than Josh Allen even though he's injured he's a much safer option that I might go with instead.  

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I haven't been liking it lately, but I REALLY don't like cash games this week.  Granted, I will still put one in for $5, but I don't like it.  

 

Gpp, I am staring long and hard at Rodgers' and Adams' projected ownership.   Too much talent to be that cheap and low owned, so I am looking into Rodgers/Adams + Cohen/A.Rob or something like that.  Other ideas are going with a popular game, and using less popular options.  Ie that NE/Pitts game, but trying something like Brady/White/Gordon + Brown or JuJu.   Gallup instead of Cooper in a Dak/Zeke stack?  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

I started hearing a lot of that after I posted as well, I think Gus will still get some grind it out type of work, just more dependent on how much now.  It's a little more uncomfortable now but there doesn't seem to be a 1 for 1 type of swap I'm liking right now.  Maybe Tevin Coleman at 200 cheaper but that's not exactly striking confidence either.  Also somehow Cam is only $100 more than Josh Allen even though he's injured he's a much safer option that I might go with instead.  

What about Wilson from SF as a pivot?  4.6K, and is getting 20+touches a week.  Seattle can be beat on the ground, and he just put up 20pts vs. Seattle a couple weeks ago.  

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6 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

What about Wilson from SF as a pivot?  4.6K, and is getting 20+touches a week.  Seattle can be beat on the ground, and he just put up 20pts vs. Seattle a couple weeks ago.  

Breida has been practicing this week

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REALLY need another M.Williams TD here.  In the top 50 in a showdown gpp.  I have him in the cpt, but also have D.Williams.   D is 53%, but Mike is only 20% total, and probably not a popular captain.  Come on, Chargers!

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I'll take it - ended up 18th out of 17K+ entries!  $3 in, $46 out.  Building back up the bankroll on these showdown slates the last few weeks.  (and end up losing a bit on the main slate regular roster stuff).  

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Another $53 in $138 out night. Up $240 on my $25 since Saturday. When Gordon was announced I swapped kelce/butker for jjax/mikeW. Some terrible lineups I saw-  last place had both backup QBs and some other garbage. I get trying to go against the grain and make unique lineups for tourney but that’s just throwing money away.

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10 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I haven't been liking it lately, but I REALLY don't like cash games this week.  Granted, I will still put one in for $5, but I don't like it.  

 

Gpp, I am staring long and hard at Rodgers' and Adams' projected ownership.   Too much talent to be that cheap and low owned, so I am looking into Rodgers/Adams + Cohen/A.Rob or something like that.  Other ideas are going with a popular game, and using less popular options.  Ie that NE/Pitts game, but trying something like Brady/White/Gordon + Brown or JuJu.   Gallup instead of Cooper in a Dak/Zeke stack?  

I really hate the cash main slate options too. My current lineup for $5 2x looks more like a gpp,lol

Carr, Zeke,Mixon,Cooper,Boyd, Jordy,Davis,Carson,Bills

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32 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Anyone playing the Saturday slate?  Games are a crapfest.

I thought about throwing a couple $1 gpps in the mix, but the games are bad and it's hard to think of ways to differentiate. 

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15 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I thought about throwing a couple $1 gpps in the mix, but the games are bad and it's hard to think of ways to differentiate. 

agreed.  Not much there to really get excited about.

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33 minutes ago, Caesar said:

agreed.  Not much there to really get excited about.

I put in a full roster gpp and a showdown of that houst/jet game.   Used Anderson in the captain and have both QBs  and Ds in there.  :shrug:

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I put in a full roster gpp and a showdown of that houst/jet game.   Used Anderson in the captain and have both QBs  and Ds in there.  :shrug:

Anderson in the cpt is a good call.  If I do a showdown today, it will be on the Cle/Den game.  

I threw down a gpp for the two game slate just to have a reason to care.  Anderson is in there and seeing if Mayfield can do some damage today.  Actually, hoping for Cleveland to have a nice offensive day.

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10 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Anderson in the cpt is a good call.  If I do a showdown today, it will be on the Cle/Den game.  

I threw down a gpp for the two game slate just to have a reason to care.  Anderson is in there and seeing if Mayfield can do some damage today.  Actually, hoping for Cleveland to have a nice offensive day.

Most of the time I try a Wr in the cpt and try to do the cheapest I am comfortable with in order to get other decent people, hence why I had M.Williams in the Cpt the other night.  

I might do a few for the Denver game too now that I am starting to like the showdowns a little more.  

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Most of the time I try a Wr in the cpt and try to do the cheapest I am comfortable with in order to get other decent people, hence why I had M.Williams in the Cpt the other night.  

I might do a few for the Denver game too now that I am starting to like the showdowns a little more.  

I think I have made most of my wins on the showdowns this year.  I tend to do better with the smaller slates for some reason.  I am not sure why.  

I did a Saturday slate lineup that has Hopkins and Robby Anderson in it.  The only two I had from that first game, so its a good start.  If the Browns can make something happen against the Denver D, I got a real good chance of cashing in it.  

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32 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I think I have made most of my wins on the showdowns this year.  I tend to do better with the smaller slates for some reason.  I am not sure why.  

I did a Saturday slate lineup that has Hopkins and Robby Anderson in it.  The only two I had from that first game, so its a good start.  If the Browns can make something happen against the Denver D, I got a real good chance of cashing in it.  

Nice!

I have one with Darnold, Anderson, Hopkins and a couple more from that game that was at 4x before this game.  I have Lindsay, Chubb, Landry, and Denv D now.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Nice!

I have one with Darnold, Anderson, Hopkins and a couple more from that game that was at 4x before this game.  I have Lindsay, Chubb, Landry, and Denv D now.  

...who currently have a combined 10 points.  :lol:

 

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On 12/13/2018 at 6:56 PM, KarmaPolice said:

@Zyphros- I like a lot of that, but there is coachspeak and buzz about Dixon getting more run this week for Balt. 

Dixon seems like a no-brainer this week but his ownership will be sky high, maybe even 40%. 

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On 12/13/2018 at 7:09 PM, BassNBrew said:

Not well (play on fan duel).  I've turned $1600 into $600 and about $1000 in tickets.  Bleeding away $1000 for the same in tickets is about a 20% loss IMO.  In the beginning of the year I was getting far more ticket return for my investment.  Hasn't been as much overlay and FD is forcing us to the single day game which is a losing proposition.  Start of my downfall was hitting on a lineup that spit a $36K prize 20 ways and rather than cashing it out, FD had a playoff for the prize.  Ended up losing money on a perfect lineup.

This is another example of why FD sucks and why I don't play it anymore. You can hit on a perfect lineup and still not cash. 

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On 12/11/2018 at 6:32 PM, Caesar said:

I feel like I am doing about the same the past few weeks as I was at the beginning of the season.  I only play GPPs, so it is generally a slow drain over time on the bankroll, but I did hit one a little lucky a couple weeks ago that paid for the whole season.

I don't know if it is tougher or not, but I still feel like if you aren't creating 150 lineups that allows you to utilize guys nobody else is on that just happen to hit as a lottery ticket that week, then you are just fighting to stay even.  That's for GPPs obviously.  Someone else will have to chime in on cash games.

Yes for GPP's, it's almost impossible to win big unless you get extremely lucky and play 150 lineups. For example, the winner in today's DK $1M saturday special championship played 150 lineups. His next best lineup after #1 was #3677. So basically if he doesn't play that one lineup, his second best lineup only wins $20 instead of $150,000. 

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Another $30 in $57 out for Saturday. Apparently I’m better at DraftKings, or I’m simply taking over the beginner brackets. Lots of overlay- $25 double up had 7/11 people join and paid 5 spots, so pretty easy money. 

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7 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

Yes for GPP's, it's almost impossible to win big unless you get extremely lucky and play 150 lineups. For example, the winner in today's DK $1M saturday special championship played 150 lineups. His next best lineup after #1 was #3677. So basically if he doesn't play that one lineup, his second best lineup only wins $20 instead of $150,000. 

You have to get lucky, period.  I think this is just a reminder that mass entering doesn't necessarily mean you have an easier path to get your money back.  I usually try to find the gpps that are 20max or less.  But looking at the $1 20max gpp now, to get to $20 level you have to beat 29,650 other entries (assuming no ties).  So either a few entries cash or one top 50 finish just to break even.  Same thing with dudes that can mass enter the Milly Maker - $3000.  That's a top 20 finish out of 176,400 entries.  

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Another $30 in $57 out for Saturday. Apparently I’m better at DraftKings, or I’m simply taking over the beginner brackets. Lots of overlay- $25 double up had 7/11 people join and paid 5 spots, so pretty easy money. 

I have thought about doing more 2xs on short slates or showdowns, but haven't for some reason.  Keep pouring the money in!.  

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41 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I have thought about doing more 2xs on short slates or showdowns, but haven't for some reason.  Keep pouring the money in!.  

Well part of the reason I’m doing them is because I’m getting some overlay sometimes, like last night. Play everything like a cash game. But the bigger money contests that are guaranteed doublers seem to be not filling all the way or filling late. Debating how much I want to roll out today, there is a $100 pays top 3/11 and there’s only 2 guys atm. Even if a few more join I feel I should take the chance with the overlay. Lots of $10-$25 double ups that haven’t even filled to the pay line yet. 

Also I think the beginner population is dwindled by this time, and the people willing to throw $9 or $27 at a tourney or $25-$100 on a double up are even thinner. I don’t know if I’m being lucky while being aggressive and I’m going to fall back to earth or if I’m a shark in a tuna tank. 

Blow up the thread today guys, tell me your must owns and your steer clears, your favorite lineup, your sleeper target te and the defense to own, nasty weather reports, your never heard of them backups that will get their chance and shine. Chances are I’ll be going after it.

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Sorry, Snork- at a basketball tournament with my son.  Not doing a ton on dk today- just a $5 2x, and traded in some crowns for some tix in showdown games.  Dont have much left on FD, so I threw all that in gpps today.  I am overweight on NE, Rodgers/Adam's, and the seat/sf game. 

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Well I certainly came back to earth. It’s a little embarrassing, I finished last for the first time I can ever remember. Guys like brate, Cobb, saquon, just all around wrong players. 

 

Lucky for me I popped in 2 guaranteed payout double ups that didn’t fill to the money line so I won $70, which basically puts me at even for the day. Glad I looked for overlay and glad I didn’t get too carried away with tickets. 

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On 12/14/2018 at 8:45 AM, Raging weasel said:

I really hate the cash main slate options too. My current lineup for $5 2x looks more like a gpp,lol

Carr, Zeke,Mixon,Cooper,Boyd, Jordy,Davis,Carson,Bills

This 2x cashed but whiffed on my gpps. $6 in $10 out.

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On 12/15/2018 at 11:59 PM, TwinTurbo said:

Yes for GPP's, it's almost impossible to win big unless you get extremely lucky and play 150 lineups. For example, the winner in today's DK $1M saturday special championship played 150 lineups. His next best lineup after #1 was #3677. So basically if he doesn't play that one lineup, his second best lineup only wins $20 instead of $150,000. 

WOW.  That really puts it in perspective.  I knew this was the case, but seeing that just proves how much of an advantage they have putting in so many lineups.  

total cost of 150 lineups in that contest is $1200.  The winning lineup was Watson/Chubb/McGuire/Hopkins/Anderson/LaCosse/Callaway/Browns D

In a two game slate, that is not groundbreaking stuff, but the fact that he needed a 1 of 150 to find that combo is telling.

Still, I get the most enjoyment out of gpps because I like the idea of hitting it in a lottery.

FTR, I entered one lineup in that contest, and won $12.  My lineup was Mayfield/Chubb/Lindsay/Hopkins/Hamilton/Anderson/Njoku/Callaway/Texans D

Biggest misses for me were Mayfield over Watson, and Lindsay over McGuire.  If I was playing 150 lineups, though, I'm thinking I happen on that combo somehow since I had the big players as my #1 lineup.  

Maybe I'll go all in on a $1 contest this week and come up with 150 lineups just to see what happens.  

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2 hours ago, Caesar said:

WOW.  That really puts it in perspective.  I knew this was the case, but seeing that just proves how much of an advantage they have putting in so many lineups.  

total cost of 150 lineups in that contest is $1200.  The winning lineup was Watson/Chubb/McGuire/Hopkins/Anderson/LaCosse/Callaway/Browns D

In a two game slate, that is not groundbreaking stuff, but the fact that he needed a 1 of 150 to find that combo is telling.

Still, I get the most enjoyment out of gpps because I like the idea of hitting it in a lottery.

FTR, I entered one lineup in that contest, and won $12.  My lineup was Mayfield/Chubb/Lindsay/Hopkins/Hamilton/Anderson/Njoku/Callaway/Texans D

Biggest misses for me were Mayfield over Watson, and Lindsay over McGuire.  If I was playing 150 lineups, though, I'm thinking I happen on that combo somehow since I had the big players as my #1 lineup.  

Maybe I'll go all in on a $1 contest this week and come up with 150 lineups just to see what happens.  

Yeah I was in another gpp yesterday where one of the top five finishers also had a bottom five lineup (across 150 lineups). And like you said, it's such a challenge to hit on the perfect lineup if you are only playing a handful of lineups. It's hard enough even with 150. I have found this season that I'm profitable on the showdown contests, so I'm mainly sticking to that format. 

Edited by TwinTurbo
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40 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Yeah I was in another gpp yesterday where one of the top five finishers also had a bottom five lineup (across 150 lineups). And like you said, it's such a challenge to hit on the perfect lineup if you are only playing a handful of lineups. It's hard enough even with 150. I have found this season that I'm profitable on the showdown contests, so I'm mainly sticking to that format. 

Agreed.  I have been doing well in the showdowns.  I think because it is new and the pros haven't had enough data to figure out the formula for it.  I know when draftkings first started, I did fairly well because there weren't too many "pros" and definitely not endless websites and podcasts of information on it.  

I just don't have the willpower to stay away from the chance to win $150K on a $8-10 bet.  I'm a sucker like that.  But I don't have enough money to play a full compliment of lineups every week. 

Speaking of formula for Showdowns, what is yours?  KP talked about always putting a WR in the cpt.  I think that's a good plan.  I just try to put the lowest person salary-wise that I feel comfortable will be heavily involved in the gameplan in cpt spot.  Then fill in and always try to get both QBs in if its expected to be a high scoring game.  Use D and K if its looking like a low scoring game.  

Not too much thought, but mostly feel on the showdowns.  As I said, I have done pretty well on those, so it must work to some extent.

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