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KarmaPolice

DraftKings Week 15

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1 hour ago, Caesar said:

Agreed.  I have been doing well in the showdowns.  I think because it is new and the pros haven't had enough data to figure out the formula for it.  I know when draftkings first started, I did fairly well because there weren't too many "pros" and definitely not endless websites and podcasts of information on it.  

I just don't have the willpower to stay away from the chance to win $150K on a $8-10 bet.  I'm a sucker like that.  But I don't have enough money to play a full compliment of lineups every week. 

Speaking of formula for Showdowns, what is yours?  KP talked about always putting a WR in the cpt.  I think that's a good plan.  I just try to put the lowest person salary-wise that I feel comfortable will be heavily involved in the gameplan in cpt spot.  Then fill in and always try to get both QBs in if its expected to be a high scoring game.  Use D and K if its looking like a low scoring game.  

Not too much thought, but mostly feel on the showdowns.  As I said, I have done pretty well on those, so it must work to some extent.

For me, the CPT choice is based on pricing and game strategy with no preference for any position. For example, last night, I thought the ideal cash lineup was QB-QB-RB-RB-K-K. So Gurley (CPT)-Adams-Goff-Foles-Zuerlein-Elliott. That lineup was good enough for 5500 out of 88235, but would have probably finished much higher if Adams didn't get hurt. The Smallwood lineups (4%) got really lucky. Those TDs may have went to Adams if he didn't exit with a back injury. I think Smallwood had zero touches prior to Adams getting hurt and he only had 4 carries total in the previous 5 games. 

My second best lineup was Foles, Everett, Goff, Gurley, Jeffrey, Sproles. I missed fitting Gurley into the CPT spot there and Foles ended up being a bad choice in general.

My third best lineup was Gurley, Adams, Cooks, Sproles, Woods, Zuerlein. And the strategy there was to fade both QBs. 

A few of my other lineups had WR in the cpt spot and didn't cash. 

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3 hours ago, Caesar said:

Agreed.  I have been doing well in the showdowns.  I think because it is new and the pros haven't had enough data to figure out the formula for it.  I know when draftkings first started, I did fairly well because there weren't too many "pros" and definitely not endless websites and podcasts of information on it.  

I just don't have the willpower to stay away from the chance to win $150K on a $8-10 bet.  I'm a sucker like that.  But I don't have enough money to play a full compliment of lineups every week. 

Speaking of formula for Showdowns, what is yours?  KP talked about always putting a WR in the cpt.  I think that's a good plan.  I just try to put the lowest person salary-wise that I feel comfortable will be heavily involved in the gameplan in cpt spot.  Then fill in and always try to get both QBs in if its expected to be a high scoring game.  Use D and K if its looking like a low scoring game.  

Not too much thought, but mostly feel on the showdowns.  As I said, I have done pretty well on those, so it must work to some extent.

Also for MNF, the bulk of my lineups will feature either CMac or Kamara at cpt. For some reason, my gut tells me to fade Cam. 

What are your thoughts on the best strategy for tonight's showdown contests?

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44 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Also for MNF, the bulk of my lineups will feature either CMac or Kamara at cpt. For some reason, my gut tells me to fade Cam. 

What are your thoughts on the best strategy for tonight's showdown contests?

I like DJ Moore in cpt tonight.  I know cam hasn't looked right and the NO D has been pretty solid of late, but I just think he is a matchup nightmare for NO.  McCaffrey is always a good play, but I don't like the lineups when I put him in the captain spot, so I just have him in the flex.  If I could make a lot of lineups, I would do what you are doing because I think someone down there in the $400-$600 range is going to get value.  I am personally leaning Josh Hill.  Shot in the dark guess, but it could pay off.  

Agree with fading Cam for the most part.  

Carolina middle of the road for special teams.  Going to flyer T. Hill in the flex to make room for better players.  With his occasional use, it wouldn't take much for him to return value at $1400.

Like I said, not sure I have a sound strategy, but more feel of things.  Its been working for now.  I'm probably all over the place with this one.  The plays are so top heavy.  Take a chance on a cheap player and load up as best I can.

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I was thinking about going for it and have Thomas in cpt and think of what else to build around that.  NO run D is good, so that limits McCaffrey a bit, and Ingram/Kamara have been mooching off each other.  I thought about the cheap TE in Car, but NO is also good vs. the TE spot.  The only 30+ game I saw on first glance was Thomas.   McCaffrey is next who I thought could have a huge night at cpt.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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On the flip side, Car is trash vs. TEs, so if you do D.Arnold in the cpt at $900 you could do whatever you want after that.  

Intersting gpp flyer without the RBs:  Arnold cpt - Brees/Cam/Moore/Samuel/Thomas

 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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5 hours ago, Caesar said:

I like DJ Moore in cpt tonight.  I know cam hasn't looked right and the NO D has been pretty solid of late, but I just think he is a matchup nightmare for NO.  McCaffrey is always a good play, but I don't like the lineups when I put him in the captain spot, so I just have him in the flex.  If I could make a lot of lineups, I would do what you are doing because I think someone down there in the $400-$600 range is going to get value.  I am personally leaning Josh Hill.  Shot in the dark guess, but it could pay off.  

Agree with fading Cam for the most part.  

Carolina middle of the road for special teams.  Going to flyer T. Hill in the flex to make room for better players.  With his occasional use, it wouldn't take much for him to return value at $1400.

Like I said, not sure I have a sound strategy, but more feel of things.  Its been working for now.  I'm probably all over the place with this one.  The plays are so top heavy.  Take a chance on a cheap player and load up as best I can.

Put together a last minute lineup that tied for #1 with 106.25. 😲 Unreal. 

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21 hours ago, Caesar said:

Agreed.  I have been doing well in the showdowns.  I think because it is new and the pros haven't had enough data to figure out the formula for it.  I know when draftkings first started, I did fairly well because there weren't too many "pros" and definitely not endless websites and podcasts of information on it.  

I just don't have the willpower to stay away from the chance to win $150K on a $8-10 bet.  I'm a sucker like that.  But I don't have enough money to play a full compliment of lineups every week. 

Speaking of formula for Showdowns, what is yours?  KP talked about always putting a WR in the cpt.  I think that's a good plan.  I just try to put the lowest person salary-wise that I feel comfortable will be heavily involved in the gameplan in cpt spot.  Then fill in and always try to get both QBs in if its expected to be a high scoring game.  Use D and K if its looking like a low scoring game.  

Not too much thought, but mostly feel on the showdowns.  As I said, I have done pretty well on those, so it must work to some extent.

Finished #1 in the $100k MNF showdown! 

Kamara (cpt), Panthers, Saints, Ingram, CMac, Thomas. The Panthers D run back on the Saints 2pt conversion attempt is what won it. 6 point swing for the Panthers D on that play with the INT, 2pt return, and holding the Saints under 14. We were just talking on this thread about how you needed to get super lucky to win and that play was a perfect example. 

 

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Brought this up in the FD thread.  I've been tinkering with low cost 1.5x players and had some cashes so far.  Was one Perriman play away Saturday night from a super finish (still finished 125th in a mid size gpp).  Sunday, Smallwood was minimum salary of $200, so his 1.5x slot value was only $300 I think (but that was falling into luck, which is what it takes I guess).  In the 1.5x slot I played Everett (cashed), Rams D (horrible lineup) and Sproles (just missed cashing).  Last night this wasn't a winning strategy from what I can tell with McCaffrey and Kamara doing so well and the QBs stunk (generally what you'd be paying up for), and I didn't notice any Manhertz lineups at the top of the standings or any other cheapo 1.5x players.

Has anyone been trying this out here?  I'm going to read this thread from the beginning now...

edit:  seems like some are tinkering with this, but maybe not as drastic as I have.  I'm digging down into the 2-4k range to find Captains.

Edited by Bobcat10

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13 minutes ago, Bobcat10 said:

Brought this up in the FD thread.  I've been tinkering with low cost 1.5x players and had some cashes so far.  Was one Perriman play away Saturday night from a super finish (still finished 125th in a mid size gpp).  Sunday, Smallwood was minimum salary of $200, so his 1.5x slot value was only $300 I think (but that was falling into luck, which is what it takes I guess).  In the 1.5x slot I played Everett (cashed), Rams D (horrible lineup) and Sproles (just missed cashing).  Last night this wasn't a winning strategy from what I can tell with McCaffrey and Kamara doing so well and the QBs stunk (generally what you'd be paying up for), and I didn't notice any Manhertz lineups at the top of the standings or any other cheapo 1.5x players.

Has anyone been trying this out here?  I'm going to read this thread from the beginning now...

edit:  seems like some are tinkering with this, but maybe not as drastic as I have.  I'm digging down into the 2-4k range to find Captains.

I've tinkered with lineups that had cheap players in the cpt spot but it usually didn't work out because they don't get enough volume to make a difference. Manhertz was a nice pivot but he only had 1 touch on a trick play. Smallwood was a good example of how it can work out, but it took an in-game injury for it to happen. The showdown lineups mostly come down to luck and having a smash player in the cpt spot. 

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8 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

I've tinkered with lineups that had cheap players in the cpt spot but it usually didn't work out because they don't get enough volume to make a difference. Manhertz was a nice pivot but he only had 1 touch on a trick play. Smallwood was a good example of how it can work out, but it took an in-game injury for it to happen. The showdown lineups mostly come down to luck and having a smash player in the cpt spot. 

Right, I think Smallwood and Manhertz are not really good examples of what I’d be looking for. That’s like throwing the backup qb in. Blind luck or maybe if you’re maxing entries.

Perriman has limited volume but he has caught Baker’s eye lately and he has long TD and maybe even 2 TD upside. One of the cheap Saints WR or TE is another example. Mining those guys seems legit...they just have to hit a decent score and you can make up the .5 you’re missing out on with the savings because presumably you’re rostering the high priced player that goes off in flex. Definitely a way to be different.

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On 12/18/2018 at 12:07 PM, TwinTurbo said:

Finished #1 in the $100k MNF showdown! 

Kamara (cpt), Panthers, Saints, Ingram, CMac, Thomas. The Panthers D run back on the Saints 2pt conversion attempt is what won it. 6 point swing for the Panthers D on that play with the INT, 2pt return, and holding the Saints under 14. We were just talking on this thread about how you needed to get super lucky to win and that play was a perfect example. 

 

Congrats.  That is awesome.  I basically got my money back Monday night, so not a loss, but still hoping for a hit like you got.  

Very cool.  😁

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1 hour ago, Caesar said:

Congrats.  That is awesome.  I basically got my money back Monday night, so not a loss, but still hoping for a hit like you got.  

Very cool.  😁

Thanks. The other nice part was that I missed entering it in the $1M showdown but the payout split in the $100k actually ended up being slightly higher because there were only 5 ties instead of 73. So another bit lof luck there as well.

Think about that for a minute. The contest with the $250k top prize paid less to each #1 team than the contest with the $20k top prize after factoring in all the ties and the combined prize pool. 

Edited by TwinTurbo
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42 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Thanks. The other nice part was that I missed entering it in the $1M showdown but the payout split in the $100k actually ended up being slightly higher because there were only 5 ties instead of 73. So another bit lof luck there as well.

Think about that for a minute. The contest with the $250k top prize paid less to each #1 team than the contest with the $20k top prize after factoring in all the ties and the combined prize pool. 

Kinda makes you wonder why you would ever play in the large capacity showdowns, huh?

The lineup where I tied for first, with 109.25, I tied with 2 others and won just over a grand.  I will take it.  Better chance of winning.  I had the lineup entered into the 100K tourney and won $45.  Same lineup.  ETA: Same entry fee!!

Food for thought!!

Edited by Caesar
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Heard an interview with the winner of a million dollars this past weekend on DK. Not sure how many players were in the contest but this guy had 84 entries at $250 a pop. He didn't pay for any of them but won them in guaranteed qualifiers throughout the year that had alot of overlay. He said most were won in 3mans that cost $88 where only 1 other player entered. Only 5 of his other 83 entries cashed for a little under 5k.

His advice on winning a gpp was never play a contest with over 100k players and max enter whenever possible.

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12 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I never seem to get overlay on my price level.  Sounds like what BnB describes - a lot of overlay in $20+ entries?  $20 is about my weekly allowance. 

same here. The biggest reason the pros win so much is because they play so much and in smaller fields. I've heard/read most have at least 1k in play everyday.

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