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Chubb Projections seem HIGH @ Denver (1 Viewer)

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19+ PPR points seems high. On road vs Denver who has been playing much better run defense. 

Who are you starting Chubb over?  

 
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19+ PPR points seems high. On road vs Denver who has been playing much better run defense. 

Who are you starting Chubb over?  
I've been going back and forth on Chubb and Lindsey in standard (5 point bonus for 100 yards).

In another league Chubb over mike Evans and Doug Martin. Also standard.

 
Bloom has him at 20.54 and Dodd’s 19.12 PPR points. Just seems very very high to me.  Road, primetime game. If they get hurry up or third and long it’s Duke Johnson.

I can see 12-14 PPR.  Can’t bank on the touchdown. 

 
Since the Hyde trade he's at 19.7 ppr ppg. His targets have been 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 6. He's averaging 9.4 YPR and has 2 receiving TDs in that span.

Duke's utilization since then (carries + targets): 5, 5, 10, 7, 4, 3, 2.

I've got some good options, but I'm starting Chubb with confidence.

 
Since the Hyde trade he's at 19.7 ppr ppg. His targets have been 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 6. He's averaging 9.4 YPR and has 2 receiving TDs in that span.

Duke's utilization since then (carries + targets): 5, 5, 10, 7, 4, 3, 2.

I've got some good options, but I'm starting Chubb with confidence.
True, Broncos still in a playoff chase, primetime Saturday night game at home. I just don't see this going well at all.

 
Denver last couple home games.

11/25 vs Pittsburgh -  Beat them and held Conner to 13-53-0

11/4 vs. Texans - Lost by 2 and  Alfred Blue was 15-39, and Miller was 12-21-0.

 
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Cleveland Browns Rushing Offense at Denver Broncos Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup) The midseason trade of Carlos Hyde opened the door for Nick Chubb to take on the lead role in the Cleveland backfield. He has flashed an elite skill set with the agility to make guys miss and enough long speed to take it the distance. After a hot start, he has cooled off a bit in recent weeks. Since Week 11, he is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, which has brought him down to a still excellent 5.3 yards per carry average on the season. Over the last three games, he is averaging just 60.3 rushing yards per game and he has just 22 carries over the past two weeks. While the rushing yardage has dipped a bit, Chubb continues to put up strong fantasy numbers in part because he has scored in five straight games. Matt Bitonti ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 unit overall. The strength of the unit is the interior, where Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter, and Kevin Zeitler have been excellent.The Broncos rank near the middle of the pack against the run in most major categories. Denver is 19th in rushing yards allowed (119.2 per game) and 18th in yards per carry (4.5). The one area they have really excelled is in the red zone. The Broncos have allowed just eight rushing touchdowns on the season, which ranks 5th-best in the NFL. Denver’s run defense has been much improved after an awful mid-season stretch in which they allowed consecutive 200-yard games to Isaiah Crowell and Todd Gurley in early October but since then have not allowed an opposing back to go over 90 yards rushing. Since giving up two touchdowns to Gurley in Week 6, the Broncos haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown to an opposing back. Denver’s improvement has come despite playing without veteran linebacker Brandon Marshall the last five weeks. Linebacker Todd Davis has been a beast against the run and is putting together a Pro-Bowl caliber season.

Please refer to the NFL's injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players. https://subscribers.footballguys.com/2018/18matchups-r-15.php

 
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Denver forced 28 3 and outs their first 9 games. They’ve forced 4 in their last 4 games. I could def see the Browns sustaining long drives v the Broncos.

 
Chubb has scored a TD in 6 of his last 7 games.  No reason why he can't get 13 pts from scrimmage yards and receptions.

Looks fine to me. 

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
I've been going back and forth on Chubb and Lindsey in standard (5 point bonus for 100 yards).

In another league Chubb over mike Evans and Doug Martin. Also standard.
Broncos offense has been terrible without Sanders.

 
starting chubb over d williams  :shrug:  and mike evans

i wasnt thrilled about starting chubb against the texan and a TD salvaged his day in that game

 
Seems like they are being passed all over though. Injuries to the secondary too?
Yep, seems like the cause.

Earlier in the year they had some atrocious games stopping the run (Chiefs-Jets-Rams stretch), last month it’s been mostly through the air. I would strenuously object to anyone saying their run defense has improved; they’re simply giving up more passing yards. You really can’t say any defense that is giving up 25-26 FDs and 400-500 yards allowed is playing well. The 49ers decimated offense put up 24 & 389.

 
I own Chubb, am a Bronco's fan and am starting Chubb with confidence. He may not get the yardage as we have done well as of late against the run and it appears Wolfe will play and we will get Marshall back at LB. However, our secondary is decimated so I see Baker and the Browns O as a whole having a nice day. 

On the flip side, Keenum has been bad and has zero threats in the passing game. I don't have the numbers but this offense has allot of 3 & outs and I see that being a trend as Joseph for whatever reason is not a fan of running the football (18th in the league) with consistency. 

I'm seeing 50-70 total yards with a minimum of 1 TD. 

 
Just seems like the FBG's rankings of 19 PPR points are assuming TD and 3-25 receiving to go with the 65 rushing yards.

I guess we'll see.  I just see teams like the Browns turtling.  Primetime road game, Denver in a must win.  Saturday night. 

 
Just seems like the FBG's rankings of 19 PPR points are assuming TD and 3-25 receiving to go with the 65 rushing yards.

I guess we'll see.  I just see teams like the Browns turtling.  Primetime road game, Denver in a must win.  Saturday night. 
I think the Denver we saw getting crushed by the 49ers could be what they are now. Sanders being out is a giant loss, probably the biggest one the offense could have suffered. Harris being gone means they have to keep Safeties back, and LB's in the middle zones.  That defense is likely to be on the field a ton. Chubb is plan A for Cleveland whenever they get inside the 20. I think 75 and a touch is his floor this week. Could easily see well over 100 yards and multiple TD's. Barkley, Elliott, Gurley, McCaffrey, are the only RB's I'd start over him. Maybe Mixon, or Kamara are equals.

 
I guess I will be the contrarian here, but I am starting Denver''s defense with confidence. I know the secondary is a complete clown show, but  I see Denver's defense really putting pressure on Baker and getting multiple sacks and at least one (maybe more) strip sack/fumbles. I also believe we see a Denver special team score. However,I think the FBG rating on Chubb is fair. I can see 60-70 yards rushing and a TD with a check down reception or two. That being said, I would bet the under on this game at 45.5 points.

Feel free to flame me when this turns into a track meet and the end score is 34-31.

 
I guess I will be the contrarian here, but I am starting Denver''s defense with confidence. I know the secondary is a complete clown show, but  I see Denver's defense really putting pressure on Baker and getting multiple sacks and at least one (maybe more) strip sack/fumbles. I also believe we see a Denver special team score. However,I think the FBG rating on Chubb is fair. I can see 60-70 yards rushing and a TD with a check down reception or two. That being said, I would bet the under on this game at 45.5 points.

Feel free to flame me when this turns into a track meet and the end score is 34-31.
I agree this time of year is strange and the Broncos playing on a Saturday night in primetime with their studs on the D-line are going to want to feast.  This game script could be bad fast.  

I still think 19 from the FBG staff is very high. Like always Bloom is the highest with 20.54, Dodd’s though at 19.12.  

 
#1 RBs have been putting up 10 points vs Denver in my league for three weeks straight but that’s without a TD.  I’m thinking 10 is the floor and 16-17 is the ceiling for Chubb.

need a ceiling game this week bad...

 
Christ Almighty I'm losing my mind overanalyzing this. The more I read, the more I'm concerned about Chubb. I have him in over Lindsey and feel bad about it. I also have Mixon and Kamara and almost want to sit Kamara especially since it's not PPR but I'll be looking for a length of rope and a high place if lose because of benching my number 1....

 
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Christ Almighty I'm losing my mind overanalyzing this. The more I read, the more I'm concerned about Chubb. I have him in over Lindsey and feel bad about it. I also have Mixon and Kamara and almost want to sit Kamara especially since it's not PPR but I'll be looking for a length of rope and a high place if lose because of benching my number 1....
I am starting Mixon over Chubb in PPR but I think Chubb will do very well today.

 
This sucks. Don’t think most foresaw Denver being able to move the ball and control the clock so easily. Need a big Chubb in the second half!

 
FBG was just lazy with Chubb projections. Denver D has been good run stopping for about 6 weeks now.  

Sometimes I think Tremblay and Bloom just over project on everyone.  

 
Way too much dookie in this game.  We haven't seen Chubb play this few of snaps since before the Hyde trade.

 
Lots of top players underperforming so far this week.  There are going to be some bigtime upsets in fantasy playoffs.

 
10.0 PPR and a 19.51 projection. Yikes. 

Thought I was back in it when he had Miller go for 0.8 after I had Allen zero on Thursday with Justin Jackson and Rivers. 

Now im back to needing another player or two of his to flop.  

 
My league you get 5 points for 100 yards. Almost broke some furniture when he got nailed for that loss and yahoo had him back to 99. My opponent texts me crowing and then 30 seconds later they switch it back to 100. Phew!!!! Sure hope it doesn't get corrected back to 99....
Think there might be a stat correction coming. Ball was on the 10 on 4th down and Denver started their drive on the 13. Yahoo had it just a 2 yard loss and him right on 100

 
My league you get 5 points for 100 yards. Almost broke some furniture when he got nailed for that loss and yahoo had him back to 99. My opponent texts me crowing and then 30 seconds later they switch it back to 100. Phew!!!! Sure hope it doesn't get corrected back to 99....
Hear ya. We get 3. Fingers crossed no stat correction Thursday.

 
Think there might be a stat correction coming. Ball was on the 10 on 4th down and Denver started their drive on the 13. Yahoo had it just a 2 yard loss and him right on 100
I fear you may be correct. From the game book:

4-1-DEN 10 (1:53) N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (A.Gotsis).
  Denver Broncos at 1:49
1-10-DEN 13 (1:49) (Shotgun) C.Keenum pass short right to M.LaCosse to DEN 27 for 14 yards (J.Peppers). P21
Penalty on CLV-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined.

Would be a -4 point swing in our scoring  :unsure:

 
I fear you may be correct. From the game book:

4-1-DEN 10 (1:53) N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (A.Gotsis).
  Denver Broncos at 1:49
1-10-DEN 13 (1:49) (Shotgun) C.Keenum pass short right to M.LaCosse to DEN 27 for 14 yards (J.Peppers). P21
Penalty on CLV-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined.

Would be a -4 point swing in our scoring  :unsure:
Yeah, just watched the highlight and it's the 13.  I have a bonus too 👎

 
FBG projected him at 115 total yards but he only came up with 100  🤷‍♂️  He didn't get the TD that they projected.  When you complain about one specific projection, you should be required to provide ALL of your projections.  For example, what did you project for P.Lindsay and L.Miller?  They were generally ranked right behind him but put up 50 yards combined.

 

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