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KarmaPolice

DraftKings week 16

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Pretty much out of money on FD, so will be focused on DK this week.  I am sure Pitts/NO will be the popular spot.  Might start tonight digging into salaries and seeing if I have any thoughts on the slate.  

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Looking at a Saturday only schedule and tight ends suck, thinking about just punting with a 4k guy and loading up everywhere else. Thoughts?

 

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

Goff @ ARZ and Mayfield vs. CIN look interesting to me for gpp. 

Not sure I can click Goff's name this week.  Seems like a lot of the studs have been coasting and putting up just 15pt games over the last few weeks.   Yet again I seem to be looking at the middle guys with names like Allen, Dak, Winston, Mayfield.  

I also need to think about teams who actually have stuff to play for this week.  Not sure how much I want to gamble on teams that are out of the playoffs and maybe rotating players in to see what they have, or on the flip side teams at the top that have PO positions fairly secured and might not go full throttle.  

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I might go down narrative street and play some Fitz in his last home game.  Not like the Rams D has been great, so maybe they will feed him and let him go out Kobe-style.  Too bad his QB is trash, or I would like this a lot more.  

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No real analysis of the week yet, but I wanted to come in here to let DK know that a "gift" isn't something that requires something of me to receive it.  8 days of "gifts" my ###.  Scammers.

Carry on.

 

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16 hours ago, daddo39 said:

Looking at a Saturday only schedule and tight ends suck, thinking about just punting with a 4k guy and loading up everywhere else. Thoughts?

 

Either your pricing is off, or you are thinking of FanDuel.  4K is a mid level TE on DK.  On DK, you would punt with a $2500.

I say take a flier on one of the Balt TE.  

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23 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I might go down narrative street and play some Fitz in his last home game.  Not like the Rams D has been great, so maybe they will feed him and let him go out Kobe-style.  Too bad his QB is trash, or I would like this a lot more.  

What QBs and Ds do you like this week on DK main slate for gpp?

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12 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

What QBs and Ds do you like this week on DK main slate for gpp?

I will be interested in the ownership projections, but like I posted above, I am thinking about middle of the road salary guys or dumpster diving.  Guys like Brees, Ben, Watson might be popular, but haven't been showing much in the way of 20+pt upside lately.   My current list is just Ryan, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, and Dak.    The problem I am having this week is playing vets on teams that don't have anything to play for - ie Atl, so I am not sure how much I like Ryan this week either.  I might just go YOLO and roll out the rookies this week.  

Right now the Ds I have my eye on are a couple cheap home ones - Philly and Jets.  Watson takes a lot of sacks, and if Rodgers doesn't play Jets are a full go - but they will also probably be chalky of Rodgers doesn't play.  NO is the next one.  2.3k and the fewest pts they have put up in the last 6 games is 9.  As of right now, I don't see going much higher than one of those 3, and I am guessing at least one of them will be projected at 5% or less ownership.  

ETA:  after looking at things, I guess Foles is on the list now too.  

 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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8 hours ago, Caesar said:

Either your pricing is off, or you are thinking of FanDuel.  4K is a mid level TE on DK.  On DK, you would punt with a $2500.

I say take a flier on one of the Balt TE.  

Yep,note to self, no beer while posting

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A pod was talking about the Pitts/NO game, and they were saying that they would bet the under if they were inclined to do so.  That said, they did say that Thomas and JuJu were the plays if you do want to take shots.  Pitts doesn't adjust their defense, and Thomas runs a bit out of the slot, so he could get a LB covering him - like K.Allen saw in that game.  It seems to be coming down to play JuJu on the road and Brown at home, plus they said the way the D plays, JuJu should do better.    Problem with this game is the pieces are pricey and haven't been hitting value lately, so I haven't decided what to do with it.  

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First thoughts for cash yet again:

Dak

Elliott, Mack, Michel

Anderson, Lockett, JuJu

Lacosse

Miami

Dak and Elliott because they're playing for their playoff life at home against a bad defense.  Seems super chalk.  Mack and Michel because they're both finally healthy and I expect a TD from each (especially more from Michel since no Gordon it looks like).  Anderson because Enunwa seems to be out again and they'll have to throw.  Lockett, same answer.  JuJu because he's a beast.  Then the uncomfortable feeling for Lacosse and Miami but I figure he gets targets against a bad defense again in Oakland that seems to have solidified himself as the TE option, and Miami because its at home against Kessler.  Still leaves me with $1000 but I don't really like any WR as an upgrade from Anderson/Lockett that much but I didn't dig a whole lot.  

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Very surprised (and now more interested in playing) to see that Chubb and Mack are projected to be that low owned.  8th and 11th RB?   I am guessing people are thinking the popular build is to use a couple of the top salary guys and a low guy as usual.  - ie Zeke/Barkley/McGuire?    

I am going to look at building a few gpp lineups with a RB duo like Chubb/Mack or maybe Zeke/Chubb/Mack and see what I can do.  

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I had Chubb,Mack and Mixon as my RBs but now Mixon hurt and my top WR (Ju Ju) may also be out . Don't want to pay up for Zeke if half his oline is out. What a headache all these injuries are.

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14 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Very surprised (and now more interested in playing) to see that Chubb and Mack are projected to be that low owned.  8th and 11th RB?   I am guessing people are thinking the popular build is to use a couple of the top salary guys and a low guy as usual.  - ie Zeke/Barkley/McGuire?    

I am going to look at building a few gpp lineups with a RB duo like Chubb/Mack or maybe Zeke/Chubb/Mack and see what I can do.  

Was high on Mack and now this just makes me feel even better.  Was planning on fading Chubb, but might reconsider now.   

Anybody interested in starting Heinicke at QB this week?  4K at QB gives you a lot of room to get in an extra high priced guy.

Looking at Heinicke/Mack/McCaffrey/Anderson/Cooper/Hopkins/Goeddert/Cohen/49ers for the main slate. 

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14 minutes ago, Caesar said:

Was high on Mack and now this just makes me feel even better.  Was planning on fading Chubb, but might reconsider now.   

Anybody interested in starting Heinicke at QB this week?  4K at QB gives you a lot of room to get in an extra high priced guy.

Looking at Heinicke/Mack/McCaffrey/Anderson/Cooper/Hopkins/Goeddert/Cohen/49ers for the main slate. 

I wrote him down - the 4for4 podcast brought him up as a possible cash play on DK b/c of his price too.  They said he seemed to like Samuel in the preseason, and I would guess that McCaffrey and the TE might be targets for him too - especially with ATL's weakness being over the middle and to pass catching backs.  

They said that Zeke was the lock cash play and Barkley/McCaffrey were the gpp pivots b/c of the unknown with how the O will run without Cam behind center.  

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

I wrote him down - the 4for4 podcast brought him up as a possible cash play on DK b/c of his price too.  They said he seemed to like Samuel in the preseason, and I would guess that McCaffrey and the TE might be targets for him too - especially with ATL's weakness being over the middle and to pass catching backs.  

They said that Zeke was the lock cash play and Barkley/McCaffrey were the gpp pivots b/c of the unknown with how the O will run without Cam behind center.  

I should have clarified that this would be a gpp lineup. 

I feel like Cooper's ownership will go down because of his dud last week, but he has a good matchup.  I do like Barkley as a pivot, but I am wondering if my personal need in my season long (shot at $25K) is clouding my judgement on him.  Indy D has surprised me recently, and it just doesn't feel like the Giants are committed to, well, anything.

I will have to look closer at Samuel as the stack play.  I was sold on McCaffrey, and considering Ian Thomas, but didn't feel great about him at TE for 3500.  I think saving 900 on the chance that Ertz isn't the focus TE is worth the gamble in what I see as a great matchup for TE.

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Barely cashed the first showdown.  Have just 1 $1 two game slate lineup going, but took a wtf flier on Jackson and didn't have Tenn D or Peterson. 

Now time to work on tomorrow's lineups. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Chalk game going off killed my chances at a + day.  Went heavy on Rams, but the passing attack, so I also had very little CJA.   Oh well, season's almost over, and I will try something for tonight. 

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Going to have a nice finish in the $800k SNF showdown. Just needed 1 more pt from Ed Dickson to move into first on that last drive. The payout isn't going to be that big either way as there are several hundred other teams tied for 2nd best score. 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Changes to the cash lineup

Baker

Zeke, Sony, Marlon

Lockett, Anderson, Arob

Ertz

Broncos

170.56 for cash?  Yeah that'll work.  I did something right.  

I also had a Big Ben/AB/JuJu stack that oddly enough scored less than my cash lineup.  Still doubled in a quarter arcade though.  WOOHOO .50 cent.

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15 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Going to have a nice finish in the $800k SNF showdown. Just needed 1 more pt from Ed Dickson to move into first on that last drive. The payout isn't going to be that big either way as there are several hundred other teams tied for 2nd best score. 

I was right there too.  The Dickson score put me in first with about 6mins left.  I think it was $1500 at the time due to a ton of tied lineups.  Then more owned players scored, so I ended up in the pack right behind all the ones tied for 1st for $86 or so.  I think it was about 1pt from the group tied for $8000 each. 

Still, SNF showdown saves me again, so up $55 for the day.  

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15 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I was right there too.  The Dickson score put me in first with about 6mins left.  I think it was $1500 at the time due to a ton of tied lineups.  Then more owned players scored, so I ended up in the pack right behind all the ones tied for 1st for $86 or so.  I think it was about 1pt from the group tied for $8000 each. 

Still, SNF showdown saves me again, so up $55 for the day.  

Yep looks like we finished in the group tied for 2nd best score (53rd place). That last catch by C.West is what moved the other 52 teams into 1st. Outscored Dickson by .9 pt. And normally 1st place would get $200k lol. But looks like the payout would have been like $1200 each with all the ties if our group finished 1st.

Edited by TwinTurbo

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15 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Anybody playing this POS game tonight? 

yes.... this game is pretty gross. 

in CPT I'm thinking Keenum, Broncos D, Patrick, or Sutton. 

What are you guys thinking? I think both defenses are in play because of the weather, but Oakland is so bad.

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6 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

yes.... this game is pretty gross. 

in CPT I'm thinking Keenum, Broncos D, Patrick, or Sutton. 

What are you guys thinking? I think both defenses are in play because of the weather, but Oakland is so bad.

Oh ####, I didn't see that.  Honestly, I hardly ever play a D in showdown unless they are elite.  Tonight might have to be the exception though.  

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Not sure I like much, but I will still try.  I haven't built yet, but thinking in general playing Cook, Richard, Lindsay, Carr, Oak K, and looking at the Denver WRs.   I hate Lindsay's usage the last few weeks, but this is Oak, so not sure.  How about:

Cook CPT - Carr/Lindsay/Hamilton/Richard/B.Parker

??

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On RG it seems like the rain tapers off during the game, but it looks like the winds will still be there.  I guess a little bump down for the long ball and PKs?

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Not super confident, so I just threw in 5 $1 entries tonight.  I figured people will be focusing on Lindsay and Denv, so I pivoted to heavier on Oak for Ss and Gs.  Lindsay only in 2 of the 5 LUs.  I have 2 Richard, 1 Cook, 1Jordy, and one Carr in CPT LUs.  Good luck, gents!

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Just now, TwinTurbo said:

Only 1 lineup with the Raiders D and a few with Doug Martin. Broncos look like hot garbage. 

Looking like Oak D + Martin is the pair tonight.   I have 0% of both. 

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Looking like Oak D + Martin is the pair tonight.   I have 0% of both. 

I didn't get both in the same lineup. But in hindsight, of course it make sense. 

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