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rschroeder1

2019 Keepers (Keep 4)

Question

Thanks to everyone who offered advice on this forum for keepers for 2018.  Appreciate any new insight!  I know next year is a long way's off, but I find it useful to see how people's perceptions of players change over the offseason.  I find it helpful to identify biases, and my own biases.

12 teams, 17 roster spots, .5 PPR, start: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, D, K

Snake draft position for 2019:  4th

Keeper rules:  cost is one round higher than draft slot the year before.  Undrafted = last round (17)

Keeper Options (2019 Round Value)

Amari Cooper (1)
Carlos Hyde (3)
Marlon Mack (7)
Cooper Kupp (8)
Courtland Sutton (9)
Ben Roethlisberger (10)
Devonta Freeman (11)
Jerick McKinnon (16)
Juju Smith-Schuster (16)
Hunter Henry (17)
Kalen Ballage (17)
Malcolm Brown (17)
Darrel Williams (17)
Dante Pettis (17)

Not Planning on Keeping

Greg Zuerlein (13)
Indianapolis (17)

Can't Keep

Melvin Gordon (1st round from 2018)

My plans:  Cooper Kupp (8) and Juju Smith-Schuster (16) are automatic.  Assuming health, Devonta Freeman (11) is automatic.  The fourth spot is up for grabs.  In the unlikely case that Hyde, Brown or Williams becomes the KC RB next year, they would be it.  In less dreamy scenarios, I'm thinking Mack, Sutton and Pettis.

I'm highly inclined to keep two RB.  With the keeper set-up, RB are at even more of a premium, and while Mack may hover around low RB2/high RB3 territory, there's great depth there.

Appreciate all suggestions.

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JuJu & Freeman would be automatic; & I would wait to see how the off-season plays out.  Mack & Ballage could be solid keepers also.  With the 4th pick what kind of studs could be available that other owners wont be able to keep.  That could also play a key role

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16 minutes ago, j0nese said:

JuJu & Freeman would be automatic; & I would wait to see how the off-season plays out.  Mack & Ballage could be solid keepers also.  With the 4th pick what kind of studs could be available that other owners wont be able to keep.  That could also play a key role

Thanks for the reply.  With the 4th pick, I'm guaranteed one of:  Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey.  Those would probably be the top RB right now, and I'm definitely taking an RB.

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I think it comes down to off season reports for a few guys coming off injury that could be in good situations.  I would narrow it down to the following:

 

  1. JuJu - no brainer and for sure keeper
  2. Freeman - most likely a for sure keeper but if off season reports of the knee injury and concussion issues are continuing then it could change things.
  3. McKinnon - off season will dictate whether or not he is a viable candidate.  He was supposed to be the all purpose back and they paid him a boatload of cash to do so.  If reports are good and everything points to him being the guy then he is a must keep.
  4. Mack - See what the colts do in regards to RB help.  If they don't bring anybody in I think he is a must keep in the 7th round.
  5. Sutton - I put him above Kupp because he is the #1 guy and he is not coming off a major knee injury.
  6. Kupp - Depends on how the off season reports go about his knee injury.  Any setbacks or otherwise and he falls down.
  7. Balladge - showed some promise but it's a crowded backfield that doesn't seem to know how to use it's best players. 
  8. Pettis - See what SF does with regards to WR going into next year.  He showed he could be a solid fantasy WR under the right circumstances so lets see how that goes. 

 

I don't see any other worth bouncing any of these guys.  Hyde at 3rd value can't land anywhere that would make him worth it unless bad stuff comes out about the injuries/play time of the guys I listed above. 

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Too many off season things will happen that could change this but my top 4 would be: JuJu, McKinnon, Freeman and Pettis. Hunter Henry might be a possibility if you think that Kelce, Ertz and Kittle will all be kept just due to scarcity at that position and assuming Rivers comes back. You could also easily substitute Mack,Ballage or even Brown or Williams if it looks like they will be starters although I doubt Brown or Williams will be.

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2 hours ago, beerbuff said:

Too many off season things will happen that could change this but my top 4 would be: JuJu, McKinnon, Freeman and Pettis. Hunter Henry might be a possibility if you think that Kelce, Ertz and Kittle will all be kept just due to scarcity at that position and assuming Rivers comes back. You could also easily substitute Mack,Ballage or even Brown or Williams if it looks like they will be starters although I doubt Brown or Williams will be.

Ertz and Kittle will be keepers, Gronk and Kelce will likely not be kept but would be late first/early second picks.  I'd probably be out of the running for them with my draft position, in terms of keeping Henry.  There's a chance Kelce or Gronk would be available at my 2nd round position, but I would be out on the receivers that are marginal WR1 (Amari Cooper and Larry Fitzgerald types) as they are gone by Round 2.

I go back and forth on Henry.  My base position is always keep as many RB as feasible, but on the other hand, I spent this year wandering the TE wasteland with hands extended seeking alms...

Edited by rschroeder1

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10 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

Ertz and Kittle will be keepers, Gronk and Kelce will likely not be kept but would be late first/early second picks.  I'd probably be out of the running for them with my draft position, in terms of keeping Henry.  There's a chance Kelce or Gronk would be available at my 2nd round position, but I would be out on the receivers that are marginal WR1 (Amari Cooper and Larry Fitzgerald types) as they are gone by Round 2.

I go back and forth on Henry.  My base position is always keep as many RB as feasible, but on the other hand, I spent this year wandering the TE wasteland with hands extended seeking alms...

I think Gronk will be done this year, if not I'm sure he would be there with your 2nd round pick but I don't think I would draft him there even with all the keepers. With 4 keepers each I can't imagine Kelce lasting to the 2nd round.

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From a pure value pov, Big Ben in the 10th is intriguing.  But it does depend on what RBs you think you can get (not only 1st round, but possibly 2nd).

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4 hours ago, bryhamm said:

From a pure value pov, Big Ben in the 10th is intriguing.  But it does depend on what RBs you think you can get (not only 1st round, but possibly 2nd).

Thanks for your input.  QBs generally go for reasonable prices in this league (e.g. I got Ben in the 11th last year) so I'm inclined to pass on QB.  There is always something on the waiver wire in the early going as well if you screw up your pick.  But I'm glad to have him as a fallback if a bunch of injuries strike these guys in the offseason.

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