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Snorkelson

DraftKings week 17

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Wondering what kind of overlay I’ll find this weekend since there’s so much interest here. Haven’t looked at prices or whatnot and considered fading this weekend because who knows who will play for real. 

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I will be playing just because.  I just haven't started up a thread b/c I haven't gotten a chance to write down which teams are still playing for playoff spots and what times the games are.  I think it's like pre-season in that we have to try to decipher who is going to get playing time.  

IF I remember right, I think NO, NE,  and Dallas are the only ones locked into their spots.   NE doesn't usually rest starters, but not sure about Dallas and NO.  I would imagine that most of the other teams jockeying for positions or the wildcard spots would be safe.  

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Took a glance at the ownership stuff and it makes sense - people are going to be paying down at RB since just about every stud RB is in an iffy situation and might not play the whole game or at all.   It might be harder to gain leverage on the field this week, since it is so dicey to take those high salary RBs, so how do we have a different construction or pivot??  

Here are some gpp thoughts that I had looking at stuff:

1.  Lower % guys as pivots = Carson, Michel/Burkhead, R.Smith, Cook   T.Smith, Conley, Diggs, Nelson.       It seems like the "flavor of the week" type Rbs will be popular this week - J.williams, D.Williams, Freeman - so I like trying some of the guys I listed instead of them.  People hate using NE rbs, but both of those guys saw a lot of action last week and are cheap.  NE is big home favorites too.  They are in every bit of a time share a Freeman but on a better team and 1/3 the ownership.   

2.  Odd roster construction - I was specifically looking into using 2TEs or 2 RBs from the same team.  Something like Kelce/Kittle has upside since both are chasing records.  Ertz/Kittle is nice too.   Going back to the NE rbs - both together cost 8.7K this week, and last week they combined for 22 rushes and 5 targets.  We would for sure be considering an 8.7K Rb on a big home favorite team with that workload, so I am looking at a couple LUs with both those guys in it for differentiation.  

3.  Leave even more $ on the table - it's going to be very popular construction this week to take 2-3 cheap rbs, then pay up for Mahomes and studs at WR and/or TE.  Might be wise to leave $1k or so left in salary in a LU you like just to be different in a big gpp.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

My fav RBs are Michel,Barber and McGuire for gpp- not doing cash this week just 4 $.25ers or so.

0 chance I do cash.  Just going to turn this into a fun, WTF week.  

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I don't talk bad a lot about DK, but WTF?  You'd think if they were trying to get people attracted to the Showdown Captain Mode they would give us better games than Jets/NE, Balt/Clev, and Jax/Houst.  🤢

ETA:  (I will still play them, but still...) :bag:

Edited by KarmaPolice

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I’ve considered fading this week, or maybe just doing a couple gpps. I’ve had a good run the last couple weeks and I’d hate to donkey off on a highly variable week, although the uncertainty makes gpps a little more desirable imo. 

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(Indy/ten not on the slate but apply) philly, kc, lac, hou, ne, rams, chi, min, bal, pit, all have spots to secure or home field advantage to play for. That seems like a decent pool of players to choose from for cash games. Hou and ne play at 1:00, so the playoff implications won’t be much impacted by the early games. If NE wins they secure a 1st rd bye, if Houston wins they clinch their division. 

Early only slate will be interesting. May want to make a Tb/atl stack, defense may not be real motivated in this one. 

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10 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I don't talk bad a lot about DK, but WTF?  You'd think if they were trying to get people attracted to the Showdown Captain Mode they would give us better games than Jets/NE, Balt/Clev, and Jax/Houst.  🤢

ETA:  (I will still play them, but still...) :bag:

Saw this too. Weird that the Ind/Tenn can't be played at all.

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

(Indy/ten not on the slate but apply) philly, kc, lac, hou, ne, rams, chi, min, bal, pit, all have spots to secure or home field advantage to play for. That seems like a decent pool of players to choose from for cash games. Hou and ne play at 1:00, so the playoff implications won’t be much impacted by the early games. If NE wins they secure a 1st rd bye, if Houston wins they clinch their division. 

Early only slate will be interesting. May want to make a Tb/atl stack, defense may not be real motivated in this one. 

Agree that Houst/NE will probably be playing, but like I said - their instinct is to run the ball.  Could be wrong, but I think they were in a similar situation last year or the year before and they just came out and ran the ball about 37-40 times.  

I think of the other groups, KC and Pitts are the safest, but they also have the easiest matchups so it's not without risk that they rest guys if they are up 3+ scores.  Conner is just coming back from a big injury - is he going to go full on?  How about a dinged up Hill?   Most of the other teams could rest guys if they are up or could be scoreboard watching and rest guys if their playoff stock can't improve.   Balt has to win, but who do you trust there?  If the Rams go up by a decent margin, I am pretty sure the Chicago coach said he will pull starters, so that effects that game both ways - (ie we might not want to play Minn if Chicago is using their starters the whole game, but it's a nice spot if they are playing against 2s a bit of the 2nd half).  Same with Chargers - if KC is up big, they have zip to play for either so can we trust guys like Gordon or Allen?    Lots of question marks, and I think you have to take a stand on what you think is going to happen in the Rams and KC games, because a lot of other teams' motivations stem from those games.  

I think Ben/JuJu/Brown, Mahomes/Kelce, Edelman/Michel, Ertz/Jeffery, Balt D, Woods/Cooks, Hopkins, is probably the safest group to mine from in a cash game, but they are all pricey and not all are without risk.  

 

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I just looked at the o/us.  How is that Atl/TB total still so high?  Isn't TB talking about giving Ryan Griffin some run at QB and Julio/Coleman dinged up and at risk to miss?  \

Better question is -- Why am I still playing this week?? :lol:

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I just looked at the o/us.  How is that Atl/TB total still so high?  Isn't TB talking about giving Ryan Griffin some run at QB and Julio/Coleman dinged up and at risk to miss?  \

Better question is -- Why am I still playing this week?? :lol:

Lol, I put in a lineup for a cash game and shook my head.

Rodgers- don’t see how he doesn’t throw a few scores vs det. Unless they sit him, but it’s a home game, so you kind of owe it to the fans to play him, right? 

CJA- will get all he can handle, I’m pretty sure of that. Can he repeat his success?

Carson- hard to pass up vs Arizona, but perhaps they rest him since penny is healthy, and penny could have a big game. Smh.

JWilliams- I feel like Detroit is going to struggle to find motivation away at lambeau. 

Cobb- cheap and should get some targets- unless they play mvs kumerow esb and the other young guys to see what they have. 

Edelman- good floor for cash and nyj stink vs pass

Hamilton- seems to be pretty consistent the last few weeks. 

Cook- Oakland should be throwing the rock and cook seems to be a favorite target. 

Buf-Miami is moving on from tannehill, and likely overhauling the front office which usually means the coaches are out too. I’ll take buffalo at home vs a team on the outs.

 

This is not a sexy lineup.

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Here is a gpp I put together with both ideas from above: 

Mahomes - Rex/Michel - Adams/R.Anderson/T.Smith - Kelce/Kittle - NE

 

I figure that in order for both NE backs to put up points for this, the D has to keep the Jets in check or help out, so I went with that.  For more correlation, I figure if the Pats are that far ahead, NYJ needs to throw to catch up, so I thought I'd try R.Anderson.  Adams fits in with my TEs who are also going for records.  If he is a no-go, I figure Hopkins or JuJu are in this range and I could pivot to them.  T.Smith is just a dart assuming that NO studs are mostly sitting and Bridgewater can be a good backup.  

Going to put in 5-6 LUs in a bigger gpp with some ideas, and I have a placeholder for 4 of the Showdown games for $1 each.  

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Looked at the updated ownership %s and it's interesting.  Has Tomlin said something about pulling starters if Balt is ahead a lot in their game?  For being in a must-win at home, I am surprised at the projections for the Pitts guys.  

Overall, I think my favorite gpp plays might be the Vikings now.   In a must win, but all the studs are <5% projected b/c they are vs. the Bears.  Since there is a chance that Chicago could pull stars if the Rams are winning, that is an interesting spot.  

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Lost all $5 I had in play. Other than Barkley all my RBs we're duds(Williams,Barber, McGuire, Michel, Samuels). Used Rogers,Brady,Ben, Mahommes,Cousins and Ryan at QB.

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I had a few Josh Allen teams but couldn't break 200.

My best team was 197.96: Allen, CJ Anderson, Barkley, Foster, Godwin, Jones, Kelce, J.Washington, Redskins

Before the afternoon games, I swapped out Perriman for Washington (3100) which cost me a few points as well.  I was on the fence about pivoting from Kelce to Kittle and upgrading the D but left it as is. Really should have swapped from Kelce/Skins to Kittle/Chiefs. It's always easy in hindsight. But that would have been a top 5 finish. 

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