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Dr. Dan

Josh Jacobs - Dynasty RB

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1 minute ago, Zyphros said:

You're not wrong there are MANY warts on him, but running 4.6+ or having a 9'4" broad jump could be because of injury.  There's so much caution with him but someone will see the upside and take him.  

I've done this once before in my rookie rankings and I might have to do it again with Josh Jacobs.  Keep him ranked where I had him, but just put a DND (Do Not Draft) on his name.  

I mean, I wouldn’t even go as far as DND. It may not be bull #### that teams/scouts like him. I just think the scouts who derived this narrative around him are full of it. Philly/KC/TB is still going to be a situation people are going to want a piece of even if it is a suboptimal athlete/producer.

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1 minute ago, Bojang0301 said:

I mean, I wouldn’t even go as far as DND. It may not be bull #### that teams/scouts like him. I just think the scouts who derived this narrative around him are full of it. Philly/KC/TB is still going to be a situation people are going to want a piece of even if it is a suboptimal athlete/producer.

At this point I feel way more comfortable with him on someone else's roster than my own.  If the landing spot is prime then that would change things for sure but as of now he's scary to draft. 

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Similar numbers to Kareem Hunt's combine, no?

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/kareem-hunt?id=2557917

Third round pick Kareem Hunt or top 5 pick Kareem Hunt? People are so quick to compare this guy favorably. What about Jonathan Williams? He compares similar to Jonathan Williams right? There is a guy who had 8.9ypc in two separate seasons in this draft. I don’t see people rushing in to compare him to Barry Sanders.

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Just now, Bojang0301 said:

Third round pick Kareem Hunt or top 5 pick Kareem Hunt? People are so quick to compare this guy favorably. What about Jonathan Williams? He compares similar to Jonathan Williams right? There is a guy who had 8.9ypc in two separate seasons in this draft. I don’t see people rushing in to compare him to Barry Sanders.

Calm down. I was just asking.

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42 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

At least Christine Michael was a top, top percentile athlete.

This sentence is why athletic testing is almost entirely a waste of time. I’m much more comfortable listening to scouts describe what a kid actually does on the field, his work ethic and how enthusiastic he is about playing. 

I don’t need another Michael, McKinnon or Sankey who wows in his pajamas and nowhere else. 

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Edited by tangfoot
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6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

This sentence is why athletic testing is almost entirely a waste of time. I’m much more comfortable listening to scouts describe what a kid actually does on the field, his work ethic and how enthusiastic he is about playing. 

I don’t need another Michael, McKinnon or Sankey who wows in his pajamas and nowhere else. 

What has Josh Jacobs done on the field? I’m down to hear this.

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13 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

What has Josh Jacobs done on the field? I’m down to hear this.

Where does my assertion that athletic testing is mostly garbage mention Josh Jacobs?

Edited by tangfoot

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Where does my assertion that athletic testing is mostly garbage mention Josh Jacobs?

Hey Alice, did you leave wonderland? You assert athletic testing is garbage then assert what players did on the field is important. 

Meanwhile, since January I’ve been told to ignore Josh Jacobs production and that he’d test off the scales and that would justify dullards like Daniel Jeremiah ranking top 5 overall. So now that he tests like ####, I’m supposed to ignore all those things and trust the scouts? Nah, ain’t happening. This dude is a mediocre prospect whose ranking will be purely off of situation. He did very little in his career and his athleticism is a microcosm or why he did very little.

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8 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Hey Alice, did you leave wonderland? You assert athletic testing is garbage then assert what players did on the field is important. 

Meanwhile, since January I’ve been told to ignore Josh Jacobs production and that he’d test off the scales and that would justify dullards like Daniel Jeremiah ranking top 5 overall. So now that he tests like ####, I’m supposed to ignore all those things and trust the scouts? Nah, ain’t happening. This dude is a mediocre prospect whose ranking will be purely off of situation. He did very little in his career and his athleticism is a microcosm or why he did very little.

Quit making this about you.  You may be (could be?  probably be?) right on this kid. 

But I’m not basing my opinion on any player on their combine. It’s fun and kinda like scratching the football itch in March,  but it’s really just Reality TV. Meaningless noise. 

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

For what it's worth when he was talking to that NFL Network lady Kim he said he wasn't 100% still.

I think that is important and the reason he should not have run

Edited by Gandalf

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1 minute ago, Gandalf said:

I think that is important and the reason he should not have run

Maybe, could also be that he knows he had a poor time, and is trying to spin it.

This isn't really that surprising a time. Watching Bama, I never thought he was faster than Harris, and Harris was ran 4.57.

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2 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Maybe, could also be that he knows he had a poor time, and is trying to spin it.

This isn't really that surprising a time. Watching Bama, I never thought he was faster than Harris, and Harris was ran 4.57.

Either way. If you know your time is going to be 4.6, don’t run. All he did was hurt his stock.

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1 minute ago, Gandalf said:

Either way. If you know your time is going to be 4.6, don’t run. All he did was hurt his stock.

Oh, 100% agree. I thought during the college season that Elijah Holyfield was the best RB(at least at the rushing part of it) in this class. His 4.78 pretty much ended those thoughts.

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Something people may not be taking into account is that jacobs ran his 40 on what appears to be grass/turf, opposed to the track that the combine performers ran on. This isnt by any means a wholly accurate conversion, but generally, the conversion from grass to track is 2%. So you would subract 2% (.092) of his 4.6 time from the 4.6 itself, giving you roughly 4.5 time (not taking into account the inaccuracies of hand times, which could be faster slower dependent on a multitude of variables, injuries, and possibly disinterest).

 

I feel a smarter athlete will do well enough to get drafted but not perform so well that he ends up getting drafted by a bad team with a top pick. An ideal situation is penny where he can sit behind a starter and learn the nuances of his position at his pace and takeover when ready, opposed to a ronald jones who was expected to take the reigns immediately and was exposed, which potentially can destroy a persons confidence, inhibiting any progression he may have had if he were in a better learning situation/environment.

 

Just my take.

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Anyone remember Ricky Watters? He ran a 4.71. And also wasn't a productive back in college. How is Josh Jacobs as a receiving back compared to him? Are the RBs now required to be .2 faster in the 40 in order to be productive compared to back then?

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8 minutes ago, onlyi said:

Something people may not be taking into account is that jacobs ran his 40 on what appears to be grass/turf, opposed to the track that the combine performers ran on. This isnt by any means a wholly accurate conversion, but generally, the conversion from grass to track is 2%. So you would subract 2% (.092) of his 4.6 time from the 4.6 itself, giving you roughly 4.5 time (not taking into account the inaccuracies of hand times, which could be faster slower dependent on a multitude of variables, injuries, and possibly disinterest).

 

I feel a smarter athlete will do well enough to get drafted but not perform so well that he ends up getting drafted by a bad team with a top pick. An ideal situation is penny where he can sit behind a starter and learn the nuances of his position at his pace and takeover when ready, opposed to a ronald jones who was expected to take the reigns immediately and was exposed, which potentially can destroy a persons confidence, inhibiting any progression he may have had if he were in a better learning situation/environment.

 

Just my take.

Here is a nice little apples to apples comparison: Eddie Lacy. Also coming off injury to perform in his pro day. https://twitter.com/rotowiremario/status/1108083446562340864?s=21

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5 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:

Here is a nice little apples to apples comparison: Eddie Lacy. Also coming off injury to perform in his pro day. https://twitter.com/rotowiremario/status/1108083446562340864?s=21

lol was Eddie Lacy ever in shape? And no, "round is a shape" is not an answer here. 

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10 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:

Not attacking you here as I have seen this narrative across twitter too. I just don’t understand how it’s a plus. He’s been hurt his whole career. People just spin the wheels for this guy and I don’t understand it. So now all the knocks are: little production, played behind one (sometimes two) backs, bad weight compensated speed score (35th percentile even factoring it at high of 4.6), bad broad jump,  and you can’t classify it as misuse because it was Nick f’n Saban. It’s cool if scouts love him because he runs to contact and has some decent catching acumen but this is on a scale of ludicrous I have not seen. At least Christine Michael was a top, top percentile athlete.

This caltures my current thinking. Just don’t get the hype.

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14 hours ago, tangfoot said:

This sentence is why athletic testing is almost entirely a waste of time. I’m much more comfortable listening to scouts describe what a kid actually does on the field, his work ethic and how enthusiastic he is about playing. 

I don’t need another Michael, McKinnon or Sankey who wows in his pajamas and nowhere else. 

This sounds great until you draft teez tabor. I think jake butt ran a faster 40 time than teez. 

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13 hours ago, onlyi said:

I feel a smarter athlete will do well enough to get drafted but not perform so well that he ends up getting drafted by a bad team with a top pick.

Because they prefer to get paid less?

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16 hours ago, tangfoot said:

This sentence is why athletic testing is almost entirely a waste of time. I’m much more comfortable listening to scouts describe what a kid actually does on the field, his work ethic and how enthusiastic he is about playing. 

I don’t need another Michael, McKinnon or Sankey who wows in his pajamas and nowhere else. 

Exactly. Production on the football field over athletic testing. Many of us who played real sports in life could attest to this. But in this instance Jacobs doesn’t have the production. He’s not the 1.01 unless he’s still drafted somewhere in the first which now seems unlikely.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Because they prefer to get paid less?

It’s an absurd argument 

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18 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Exactly. Production on the football field over athletic testing. Many of us who played real sports in life could attest to this. But in this instance Jacobs doesn’t have the production. He’s not the 1.01 unless he’s still drafted somewhere in the first which now seems unlikely.

I still think he can go in the 1st, it's just a matter of if the teams that would draft him would want to spend a 1st on him. (I know that sounds like a captain obvious statement, I mean he has the talent and abilities for a 1st round pick). 

Philly would still be a great landing spot. Oakland as well. I think he ends up in Oakland myself, which would be a great situation. I dont think Oakland has the "40 yard dash play" so I think he would be safe there. 

People rely too much on combine/pro day testing when it comes to evaluating these guys. I'm guilty at times. While I wont be drafting Jacobs  in any of my leagues, I still think he is a top 3 talent in rookie drafts. If I had 1.2 or 1.3 and a rb need I'd be happy right now. I still could take him 1.3 I suppose if the player I'm targeting is drafted 1.2

Edited by Dr. Dan
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15 hours ago, travdogg said:

Maybe, could also be that he knows he had a poor time, and is trying to spin it.

This isn't really that surprising a time. Watching Bama, I never thought he was faster than Harris, and Harris was ran 4.57.

Watching bama, I never thought Jacobs was the better back or a top prospect. I'm no scout so I figured I'm just missing something. But there's pretty much no chance I draft him. I might very well end up with Harris on a couple teams - although I won't be taking him too high either.  I do hope I'm wrong and he exceeds my expectations. 

Edited by -OZ-
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Nothing absurd about foresight, other than lacking it.

How much is trent richardson getting paid now? All that money he was paid went how far exactly?

Talent trumps draft position, if a player is truly talented his contract will be restructured to reflect that  or he's not that talented but ends up in a system that takes advantage of his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. I'd rather get paid less to play for the patriots then get paid more and play for a dumpster fire of an organization.

 

 

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I'll pass. These guys get drafted high in the NFL draft, then force fed the ball (see Melvin Gordon), and even though they're not very good they still put up numbers. Jacobs could be that guy.......

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4 minutes ago, onlyi said:

Nothing absurd about foresight, other than lacking it.

How much is trent richardson getting paid now? All that money he was paid went how far exactly?

Talent trumps draft position, if a player is truly talented his contract will be restructured to reflect that  or he's not that talented but ends up in a system that takes advantage of his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. I'd rather get paid less to play for the patriots then get paid more and play for a dumpster fire of an organization.

 

 

RBs’ careers are short and most don’t see long term big money second contracts. No RB (or any player) is going to “tank” a workout so that they can end up on a better team in the draft. We’re talking about millions of dollars potentially at stake. And what level of tanking are we talking? Better be careful you don’t hold back on your 40 time too much or you may fall into the second round and still get drafted by a bad team.

Did it hurt Elliot, Gurley, Fournett or Barkley to go top 10 to “bad” teams instead of falling to the Pats or Eagles?

And the example you gave (Penny v Jones) doesn’t even support your position. Penny was drafted before Jones.

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15 hours ago, onlyi said:

Something people may not be taking into account is that jacobs ran his 40 on what appears to be grass/turf, opposed to the track that the combine performers ran on. This isnt by any means a wholly accurate conversion, but generally, the conversion from grass to track is 2%. So you would subract 2% (.092) of his 4.6 time from the 4.6 itself, giving you roughly 4.5 time (not taking into account the inaccuracies of hand times, which could be faster slower dependent on a multitude of variables, injuries, and possibly disinterest).

 

I feel a smarter athlete will do well enough to get drafted but not perform so well that he ends up getting drafted by a bad team with a top pick. An ideal situation is penny where he can sit behind a starter and learn the nuances of his position at his pace and takeover when ready, opposed to a ronald jones who was expected to take the reigns immediately and was exposed, which potentially can destroy a persons confidence, inhibiting any progression he may have had if he were in a better learning situation/environment.

 

Just my take.

 

So he ran slow because he’s smart?

Wonder what Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb think about your theory that a player is smart to make sure he’s not drafted by a bad team.

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Daniel Jeremiah has him as the 7th best player overall in this draft... that's insane. But, I do still think he's a good RB prospect. He has burst, and he could still be coming off injury which would hurt his workout. His value depends 100% on his situation. If he goes to the Chiefs, his value is sky high. 

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

I'll pass. These guys get drafted high in the NFL draft, then force fed the ball (see Melvin Gordon), and even though they're not very good they still put up numbers. Jacobs could be that guy.......

i think everyone would be happy if Jacobs has a Melvin Gordon type career

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

RBs’ careers are short and most don’t see long term big money second contracts. No RB (or any player) is going to “tank” a workout so that they can end up on a better team in the draft. We’re talking about millions of dollars potentially at stake. And what level of tanking are we talking? Better be careful you don’t hold back on your 40 time too much or you may fall into the second round and still get drafted by a bad team.

Did it hurt Elliot, Gurley, Fournett or Barkley to go top 10 to “bad” teams instead of falling to the Pats or Eagles?

And the example you gave (Penny v Jones) doesn’t even support your position. Penny was drafted before Jones.

For fournette, yeah I kinda do think he'd be better off long term elsewhere. 

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

I'll pass. These guys get drafted high in the NFL draft, then force fed the ball (see Melvin Gordon), and even though they're not very good they still put up numbers. Jacobs could be that guy.......

Gordon isnt very good?

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7 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

For fournette, yeah I kinda do think he'd be better off long term elsewhere. 

They went to the AFC Championship game the season after he was drafted - and with Foles in the mix I think they'll be competitive again. The bottom line though is he got a fully guaranteed four year $27.4MM contract with a fifth year option that escalates his pay scale and he should be fine.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

Gordon isnt very good?

 Before this past sesson his ypc was 3.9....pretty much league average....he had an outstanding 2018....but he missed several game due to injury...again...alot of people dont like players they consider compilers...or only put up stats due to situation.....me i love stats...sometimes we out smart ourselves

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Just now, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

 Before this past sesson his ypc was 3.9....pretty much league average....he had an outstanding 2018....but he missed several game due to injury...again...alot of people dont like players they consider compilers...or only put up stats due to situation.....me i love stats...sometimes we out smart ourselves

I guess. maybe I'm a WI homer but he is a beast. I dont think many RBs could put up the production he has with that volume and still be relatively healthy. He has had his injuries but is one of the success stories that rebukes the argument I make against players with microfracture surgery. 

That being said, I've always been very "meh" about drafting or trading for him. Maybe it's the lack of that wow factor and the fact that he is a stat compiler. 

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2 hours ago, onlyi said:

Nothing absurd about foresight, other than lacking it. 

How much is trent richardson getting paid now? All that money he was paid went how far exactly?

Talent trumps draft position, if a player is truly talented his contract will be restructured to reflect that  or he's not that talented but ends up in a system that takes advantage of his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses. I'd rather get paid less to play for the patriots then get paid more and play for a dumpster fire of an organization.

 

 

So Trent Richardson would have been smart to tank his draft process, get drafted by Cleveland in the 2nd round, and lose a few million bucks? 

This is a horrible take.

Edited by Hankmoody
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5 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

 Before this past sesson his ypc was 3.9....pretty much league average....he had an outstanding 2018....but he missed several game due to injury...again...alot of people dont like players they consider compilers...or only put up stats due to situation.....me i love stats...sometimes we out smart ourselves

The main problem is he could be pushed off the field at any point by a better talent. 

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4 minutes ago, Milkman said:

The main problem is he could be pushed off the field at any point by a better talent. 

The problem with this statement is that as long as he's on the roster, the chances that San Diego spends a premium pick on someone with "better talent" is very low.

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6 minutes ago, Milkman said:

The main problem is he could be pushed off the field at any point by a better talent. 

Honestly the chargers suffered badly when he got hurt...ekler and jj just couldnt fill his shoes...i doubt they use draft capital anytime soon to replace him...especially with this lousy class....injuries may dictate that later

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

They went to the AFC Championship game the season after he was drafted - and with Foles in the mix I think they'll be competitive again. The bottom line though is he got a fully guaranteed four year $27.4MM contract with a fifth year option that escalates his pay scale and he should be fine.

He'll be fine for sure. I think he's better than he's shown so far and I'm skeptical even with foles. Then you look at the $13 million annual for David Johnson and Bell, while LF might not be there even on the better teams (although the cards aren't better now) I think he could be. He might still get there, we'll see.

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When Jeremiah posts stupid #### like comparing him to Michel it’s an insult to the communities collective intelligence. This guy did absolutely nothing in college. I’m doubling down. This dude should be nothing but a 5th to 7th round flier. If he succeeds it will not be because of his subpar skill set but because he’ll have landed in a plum spot.  

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15 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

I’m doubling down. This dude should be nothing but a 5th to 7th round flier.

This isn't doubling down.  It's betting 0 on a roulette wheel that goes from 1-100.  Jacobs may be a Day 2 pick, at worst.

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10 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

This isn't doubling down.  It's betting 0 on a roulette wheel that goes from 1-100.  Jacobs may be a Day 2 pick, at worst.

It’s awful process. This cat has done dog #### in his career. If he was in last years class he’d be behind Kalen Ballage and Ito Smith. 

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