Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Josh Jacobs, GB (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Zyphros
Footballguy
Thought experiment, I just went off my top4 RB's on my rookie board, total of 7 spots separating Jacobs from Montgomery, so all very closely grouped.
Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders
Miles Sanders goes to the Bears
Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs
David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs
Who you got?
Josh Jacobs goes to the Raiders
Miles Sanders goes to the Bears
Darrell Henderson goes to the Buccs
David Montgomery goes to the Chiefs
Who you got?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It probably depends somewhat on draft capital. If Jacobs is to the Raiders in the late 1st and Henderson/Montgomery are early/late 3rd then I am still taking Jacobs first. If they all go in the 2nd (Jacobs/Henderson early 2nd, Montgomery late 2nd) then things get interesting.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Jacobs went 4.08 in my FFPC superflex startup. Just one data point take it as you will. RB20.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think you're missing some teams that will likely draft backs
Buffalo - they've got a big armed qb who can run and lots of speed at receiver, now they need a younger running back to work with 31 year old McCoy and 36 year old Frank gore.
Houston - has to be addressed eventually
Atlanta - freeman looked awesome with Shanahan but hasnt produced argume signing his big contract
Minnesota - need to replace murray and hedge against cook's injuries
NY Giants could use a backup
Philadelphia - ned a complement for howard
Arizona - not a priority but they'll want to protect their young qb
Carolina - take some of the weight off mccaffrey's shoulders
Dallas - if they're serious about contending, rb2 should be improved
Packers - was jones a Mccarthyism
Colts - already hosted ajayi
Miami - patriots coaching tree
kittenmittens
Footballguy
That's nuts in superflex, especially without knowing landing spot . Very risky pick on multiple levels.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I like these, and they seem like good fits with the team's system. I think Houston would be an amazing landing spot too.
The competition is pedestrian and the offense is really good. I could see Jacobs or Sanders going there. Im skeptical of the Raiders taking Jacobs. I think we might see RBs fall a bit this year and have teams not invest early picks there.
If I was a GM of a team, I would be following the draft for talent philosophy and getting my TEs this year and getting RBs next year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I thought it was early. There were definitely other names on the board I liked more.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I was just going off of the likely best case landing spots for each one of them to maximize their appeal. Of course there are other landing spots, there's 32 teams, but these seem like the top ones that would fit each one in their skillset the most. Houston and Buffalo might be the next best option for a RB, but I just went with the best 4.
Seems right to me. He's young, is going to get drafted high which most of the time means he's going to be given every shot to get on the field and I think he's excellent in the passing game which means he can be a solid fantasy contributor even if or until he seizes majority of carries. I've not listed out my RB rankings but doubt I'd take 19 over him.
Gandalf
Footballguy
kittenmittens
Footballguy
It's pick 44 in a superflex. The way I see it, it's all downside. No player in that range has the same sort of downside depending so much on dice rolls like landing spot and draft capital. That's why I think it's risky.
You have to think 11 or 12 QBs, 11 or 12 WRs, and 3 TEs should g+be gone by then. That means at least a QB1, a WR1, or a top 3 TE went after him if I'm counting right?
Without seeing the draft board I was concentrating on the RB20 part of the equation, could not really speak on what other player I may or may not have taken him but RB20 seems like a good price to me relative to RB's.
I don't agree on the downside angle. I view it as the opposite actually, picking a young highly drafted pass catching RB like Jacobs is the best bet IMO to gain massive gain in value on that pick and turn 4.8 into someone going top two rounds next season. I could get on board with calling it risky to some degree, but to me it's an upside play.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Yeah I'm saying the other non RB players on the board were probably better picks by a ways if 18 RBs already went. Relative to RBs, not so bad. Thats the Aaron Jones or Leonard Fournette area of RBs for me.
What if he goes in the 3rd or 4th round to a bad landing spot? That's the huge downside I think is there. We don't know what the NFL thinks of him until the NFL draft, and this is a weird draft class.
There is upside too of course, with a good landing spot and high draft capital. He isn't drafted highly yet, though
Last edited by a moderator:
0% chance of the bolded happening because we do in fact have an idea what the NFL thinks about him. Not the mocks and the lofty overall rankings. That gave us an idea but the tell was him getting invited to the draft. The NFL does a solid amount of due diligence where a player is expected to go and while some players might drop a little in the draft the NFL would never have invited him to the draft and chose to their main draft commercial I see making the rounds of a Deshaun Watson narrating to Josh Jacobs and referencing his troubled past if they were not confident he was going to get drafted high.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Good point. I did not catch that he got a draft invite. I agree that is a pretty good indicator.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I don't hate the pick at all. I just liked some other names much better. It's just one draft board, but there were only 8 QBs gone at that point. Murray went as the 2nd rookie off the board with the next pick. Top 3 TE were gone. For that matter, Howard just now went as TE4, at 5.09, who I would absolutely take in FFPC over Jacobs, without knowing landing spots. Cupp, Hilton, Woods, Green, Golladay, Godwin, DJ Moore all available at the time. As RB20 goes though, Lindsay is still available. Ingram, Carson and Penny, Aaron Jones, Cohen. Anyway I don't mind it just thought it was early.
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would take him over all those RBs. The WRs and QBs are more of a toss-up though QBs tend to fall more in FFPC SF compared to regular SF since everyone is capped at picking 3 so there is much less risk of being hung out to dry (and it also means great QB value late in the draft that you have to skip over if you've already filled your 3).
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I tried answering this twice and deleted my post each time... it's a tough call.
I'd likely go with
1. Jacobs
2. Montgomery
3. Henderson
4. Sanders
I'd be very curious where Love and Singletary went, because I think they are both as talented as the guys on this list, but for the sake of this exercise:
1.Jacobs, by quite a wide margin. Jacobs might be the 1.1 if both he and Murray were to end up in Oakland.
2. Sanders, the battle for 2nd was tight, so I'll go with the team that runs more often and has better stability.
3. Henderson, I haven't written off Ronald Jones completely, and Barber could still see GL work. Could be the dreaded RBBC.
4. Montgomery, I actually don't think KC is a good landing spot for any RB. Damien Williams played very well down the stretch, and while I'm not a fan of the guy, Hyde has some supporters, and Andy Reid seems to be chief(no pun intended) among them. Very likely Montgomery would start the year #3 on the depth chart.
It wasn't the point of your question, but Henderson to Tampa and Montgomery to KC seem like very unlikely RB's stylistically to those teams. Like they'd be better flip flopped, in which case I'd still support the one in Tampa more. In fact, if Montgomery went to Tampa, I'd have him #2, as I wouldn't worry about him losing as much work. Henderson in KC would still be last, but seems more sensible for their quick strike offense.
I think the Falcons are the really sneaky great landing spot. I'd rather have a RB go there than KC or Chicago.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I can see it a little. I liken him to a smaller version of Steven Jackson. Raiders seems to be the popular choice right now. But you're probably right he doesn't get too far into the 2nd round.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I don’t get this. It’s like PFF doesn’t trust it’s own assessment.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I truly believe the nfl draft media was trying to punk everyone. Or they are idiots.
i can’t remember any rb with such limited production and measurable’s being drafted in the 1st round.
Jacobs May turn out to be great, but based on what he’s done during his college career and his draft numbers the odds are low.
i can’t remember any rb with such limited production and measurable’s being drafted in the 1st round.
Jacobs May turn out to be great, but based on what he’s done during his college career and his draft numbers the odds are low.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Maybe the raiders were talking about taking him, word leaked out, everyone started talking about him going late first or early second because that's where they have 3 picks, and that's why the raiders kicked out all their scouts, then they started telling the draftniks that they're not interested anymore, which is why people are starting to back off now.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Them and just about everyone else in regards to Jacobs. You ask them to explain it and they just shrug. He’s an experiment. He belongs nowhere near the top 100 and is not the top back in the class.
And until I see the man do this, he’s not ####### Alvin Kamara. Alvin Kamara is special, the NFL missed but not really through any fault of their evaluation. If a guy doesn’t produce in college they deserve to be scrutinized and questioned. That has been non-existent with Jacobs and NFL scouts/draftniks for a narrative.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Weren't we taking about Damien Harris as the next big thing before last season? He did have back to back 1k seasons in '16 & '17. And expected to do the same in '18 until he had to share time with Jacobs.
I get that we'd like Jacobs to be more "obvious". But should he really be dismissed because he played behind/with Harris?
I get that we'd like Jacobs to be more "obvious". But should he really be dismissed because he played behind/with Harris?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
the lone star
Footballguy
Wow, Jacobs' PlayerProfiler Page looks terrible. What happened?
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-jacobs/
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-jacobs/
Gandalf
Footballguy
He isn’t an elite athlete and didn’t have the production because of the Alabama rbbc. Analytic gurus are going to dislike him because of that.
I saw a tweet from Bob McGinn's today on his draft series, which I can't read any longer because now you have to pay for it but always enjoyed it in the past. But the one paragraph I was able to read he mentioned that in his 18 years of polling scouts that Jacobs was the 7th RB to receive unanimous top RB grade. Some of the other 7 were busts, Trent and Lacy, but even those bust's retained strong value heading into year two.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
That’s more due to this rb class being atrocious. He’s the best apple in a batch of rotten ones.menobrown said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
false. it lacks a Barkely, but has guys capable of what anyone else in 2018 did/can do
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
False. Last year there were 6 RBs drafted in the top 50 of the nfl draft.
false. it lacks a Barkely, but has guys capable of what anyone else in 2018 did/can do
this year there might be only one.
this RB class is awful overall. The nfl draft will show that.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I would not label them atrocious this year myself.
Either way I don't get to draft a 2020 RB this year. I got to pick a 2019 incoming RB, you may see no value in sorting out the top 2019 RB's but I do.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Actually going into the draft it kinda does.
of course years later once everything is decided we have a definite answer...but before they play their nfl draft position is a huge indicator of their values.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Actually it isn’t. Performance determines value. There are myriad examples of GMs, coaches, and scouts getting player value wrong and drafting busts with high picks while letting future studs fall in the draft.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Yes because at the end of the day, only the player drafted knows how hard he will work once drafted. It takes way more than talent to succeed in the NFL. You also need to work harder than you did in college, be a professional, and stay out of trouble off field.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Who did Josh Jacobs blackmail to get this kind of hype? Never trust someone who claims their eyes are telling the full story when everything points to it not being true. They show you clips of him running into people but fail to explain that his poor 40 time is exercised on the play, his failure to have elite burst has made him run to contact against a defender. His superior OLine is giving him precious extra seconds to side step the line. It is not superior vision or skill that is leading to these plays it is the product of the system. I think he has good hands and looks like a decent receiver (the one part of the game that often is difficult to to quantify if the skill is there and goes unused). He’s not elite in any way, shape or form. Why would any team take a non-elite back in the top 50? Why would any competitive dynasty player take a stab in the dark at 1.01-1.06 on someone with so many negatives against them on blind trust to people who refuse to explain why he played behind a supposed inferior back for three seasons?
They create and spin a positive narrative for the kid when even if you’re looking at things outside the number his narrative is bad. He was the #2, sometimes #3 back. He failed to put up any sort of significant production both from a yearly stand point and in a game by game stand point. He’s had several injuries in a complimentary role. He had a horrible pro day that they spun up as adequate.
I’m not saying he’s not good. In fact, I’m doing my best to try to remove such terms from my vocabulary for players. Some players are only adequate athletes that are able to produce at a high level from their situation. Jacobs could indeed have a high level of success despite what the predictive metrics say. Let’s stop playing patty cake, pretend though that he’s some special prospect. He’s not. I would say that a guy like Benny Snell with the same athleticism who was able to produce as a young back in the SEC has far more chance to have a Jordan Howard-esk career than I would betting on Jacobs to have that kind of success or to the extremes of people suggesting he is Kareem Hunt.
They create and spin a positive narrative for the kid when even if you’re looking at things outside the number his narrative is bad. He was the #2, sometimes #3 back. He failed to put up any sort of significant production both from a yearly stand point and in a game by game stand point. He’s had several injuries in a complimentary role. He had a horrible pro day that they spun up as adequate.
I’m not saying he’s not good. In fact, I’m doing my best to try to remove such terms from my vocabulary for players. Some players are only adequate athletes that are able to produce at a high level from their situation. Jacobs could indeed have a high level of success despite what the predictive metrics say. Let’s stop playing patty cake, pretend though that he’s some special prospect. He’s not. I would say that a guy like Benny Snell with the same athleticism who was able to produce as a young back in the SEC has far more chance to have a Jordan Howard-esk career than I would betting on Jacobs to have that kind of success or to the extremes of people suggesting he is Kareem Hunt.
Last edited by a moderator:
