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Dr. Dan

Josh Jacobs - Raiders RB

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2 hours ago, Bojang0301 said:

No, it isn’t. Saquan Barkley was damn near the top back in the league despite inferior play all around him. I won’t keep beating the dead horse. Andy is right to call me out. Guys like Daniel Jeremiah are treating Jacobs like Saquon and that, not really you all here looking for a fantasy asset, is what I’m bothered about.

Saquon was great, but imagine how great he would be with a good line. My point remains that the success of ALL NFL players is tied to supporting cast. Sure, the great ones can thrive with mediocre surrounding talent, but to completely separate surrounding talent from performance rings false to me.

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I was looking through Jacobs game logs this morning and something struck as surprising that it hasn't been mentioned.  Much has been made of Jacobs' lack of usage, especially from a coach known for generally making good decisions.

However, what's surprising to me is that it's never come up that Jacobs' usage increased rather substantially throughout the season.

Through the first six games he never eclipsed six carries, and failed to log a reception in 4 of the 6 games.  Through the final 8 games he eclipsed six carries six times, and had double digit carries four times.  He logged at least one reception in 7 of the 8 games.

He still had some occasional games where he was barely used, like the game where he had only 3 touches against Citadel, but by and large his usage increased throughout the season.  This makes some sense when we consider that Damien Harris was considered one of the better backs of the 2019 class headed into the season, and Najee Harris (who's usage trended down the second half of the year) was considered one of the best candidates to break out as an elite player.

Obviously production/usage are still a big gap in his profile, but I thought it was worth noting that the whole "even Saban didn't use him that much" stuff is a bit incomplete.  Saban seemed to like what he was doing enough to continue increasing his role that originally had defaulted to the two much more pedigreed running backs.

Jacobs averaged 6 touches per game over the first 6 games and 13 touches per game over the final 8 games.

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Well... where are we with this guy now? His small body of work really scared me off but now he has the highest draft capital of all RBs. Working in Gruden's has some appeal, but the Raiders schedule is brutal first half of the season. No strong take either way. 

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The highest pick I have is 1.5 and I’d still pass.

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7 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Well... where are we with this guy now? His small body of work really scared me off but now he has the highest draft capital of all RBs. Working in Gruden's has some appeal, but the Raiders schedule is brutal first half of the season. No strong take either way. 

1.1 if you could use a rb. 1.2 otherwise 

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I've got 1.01 in one league, and this is a no-brainer. 1.02 is where the hard decisions are going to come.

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Rotoworld take:

Quote

Raiders selected Alabama RB Josh Jacobs with the No. 24 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Jacobs is the first back off the board with the pick the Raiders got in the Khalil Mack deal last summer. Jacobs (5’10/219) operated as Derrick Henry’s lightly-used complement as a freshman, battled hamstring injuries and focused on special teams as a sophomore, then rushed 120 times for 640 yards (5.3 YPC) and 11 TDs as a 2018 junior, also catching 20 balls. Jacobs gained a first down or hit pay dirt on a nation-best 41% of his runs last season and averaged over 4.07 yards after contact per carry. Jacobs ran 4.60/4.63 at the Crimson Tide’s initial Pro Day but improved to 4.52 in later tests. Although Alabama’s competing talent and some bad fortune curbed Jacobs’ bulk production, his tape is starting caliber with an ascending all-around skill set as a pro-ready pass blocker, promising receiver, and fierce inside runner who maximizes yardage. He couldn't have asked for a better landing spot in terms of year-one production potential after Marshawn Lynch retired.

Apr 25, 2019, 9:00 PM

 

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9 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Well... where are we with this guy now? His small body of work really scared me off but now he has the highest draft capital of all RBs. Working in Gruden's has some appeal, but the Raiders schedule is brutal first half of the season. No strong take either way. 

Easily the 1.01 in this class, regardless of format. B+ talent in a situation primed for a heavy workload. 1300 total yards and 8TD seem reasonable expectations. Decent RB2 candidate as a rookie.

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9 hours ago, Nero said:

The highest pick I have is 1.5 and I’d still pass.

That's one mistake you'll never have a chance to make.

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I still think this will be a RBBC, but what else can you spend an early first on?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tkrull said:

I still think this will be a RBBC, but what else can you spend an early first on?

I listened to the audio of when Jon Gruden called Jacobs to notify him of his being selected. 

Gruden made it pretty clear that he sees Josh Jacobs as an every-down feature RB.   

 

Edited by dcgangstas

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1 hour ago, dcgangstas said:

I listened to the audio of when Jon Gruden called Jacobs to notify him of his being selected. 

Gruden made it pretty clear that he sees Josh Jacobs as an every-down feature RB.   

 

Yep, here is the quote.

"Hey we need a feature back now so I'm just telling you that you're going to get the opportunity of a lifetime."

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Rotoworld take:

Raiders GM Mike Mayock views No. 24 overall pick Josh Jacobs as a three-down back.

This isn't a surprise — Jacobs has the size and pass-blocking skills to play on every down. But there are some durability and speed (4.6 forty) concerns with Jacobs. Isaiah Crowell isn't much of a threat to Jacobs's workload, but Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are capable pass catchers who could push for third-down snaps.

SOURCE: raiders.com

Apr 26, 2019, 3:31 PM

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8 hours ago, menobrown said:

That's one mistake you'll never have a chance to make.

Perhaps he may in SuperFlex leagues.

Let's see what happens in the second round...  Most of our favorite WRs could still get good top 50 draft capital and go to great destinations.

If Indy, San Fran and Green Bay take WRs in the early 2nd here and TB takes a RB....

 

 

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yep, here is the quote.

"Hey we need a feature back now so I'm just telling you that you're going to get the opportunity of a lifetime."

 

Think he told Crowell the same thing?

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Posted (edited)

...

 

Edited by LawFitz
(Wrong thread)

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

Not a great list of talent he was working with but still surprising 

That list is pretty bad, only top player is Cadillac and he was hurt most of the time.

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21 minutes ago, Tool said:

That list is pretty bad, only top player is Cadillac and he was hurt most of the time.

 

Garner, Dunn and Pittman were pretty good players.  Just because they weren’t top 5 at their position doesn’t mean they couldn’t play - something that seems to be an oversight with some at this board to this day.  All 3 of those guys could very well be more talented than Jacobs.

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Wheatley was a 1st round pick with a bad attitude which killed his career. Garner was a 2nd rounder who had to split time with Ricky Waters and then was great in the latter half of his career once he got out of Waters shadow. Those were good RBs who Chuckies RBBC scheme held back when they were on his squads.

Cadillac was a top pick who hurt his knee but still ceded like 30~40% of the touches to guys like Earnest Graham even when healthy. Pittmann was nothing special talent wise but was in a true RBBC with All Pro FB Mike Alstott back then.

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24 minutes ago, Buckna said:

. Pittmann was nothing special talent wise but was in a true RBBC with All Pro FB Mike Alstott back then.

 

Pittman wasn’t special, but for a 5 year stretch he’d give you about 1200 total yds with 60 catches and a few TDs, give of take.  That’s despite sharing time in both AZ and TB enough that he never got more than 240 carries in a season, and in most not close to that.

That would fit him in around FF RB12-RB15 these days.  He had some solid FF value for a good cog in your team even if he was never going to be your RB1 (or at least hopefully not).

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13 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Pittman wasn’t special, but for a 5 year stretch he’d give you about 1200 total yds with 60 catches and a few TDs, give of take.  That’s despite sharing time in both AZ and TB enough that he never got more than 240 carries in a season, and in most not close to that.

That would fit him in around FF RB12-RB15 these days.  He had some solid FF value for a good cog in your team even if he was never going to be your RB1 (or at least hopefully not).

Different era’s though. Not sure we can translate those numbers exactly to today without hair cutting them slightly for the increase in passing the last 15 years.

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3 minutes ago, Buckna said:

Different era’s though. Not sure we can translate those numbers exactly to today without hair cutting them slightly for the increase in passing the last 15 years.

 

You could be right.  I think he’d fit in seamlessly with his ability to pass protect and catch out of the backfield.  In today’s game he might have actually gotten more work than he did when he played, but that’s pure speculation.

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Lots of guys on that list who finished with 13-14 games played and would have finished 6-10 spots higher on their full 16 game season pace.

1998 Kaufman 13 games
1999 Wheatley 16 games
2000 Wheatley 14 games
2001 Garner 16 games
2002 Pittman 16
2003 Pittman 16
2004 Pittman 13
2005 Cadillac 14
2006 Cadillac 14
2007 Graham 15
2008 Dunn 15

It also leaves out his years as offensive coordinator where he had...

1995 Watters RB4
1996 Watters RB1
1997 Watters RB7
 

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Anyone else getting the bust vibe from him? He's much more reminiscent of TJ Yeldon than an NFL workhorse. I have no doubt the volume will be there, heck he might even be good value in redraft ala Trent Richardson in his rookie season. But from a dynasty perspective, the 1.01 this year is not equal to what it has been in the past few (Barkley, Gurley, etc).

If I held the 1.01, I would find a sucker to pay king's ransom for this pick.

 

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1 hour ago, Raptors409 said:

Anyone else getting the bust vibe from him? He's much more reminiscent of TJ Yeldon than an NFL workhorse. I have no doubt the volume will be there, heck he might even be good value in redraft ala Trent Richardson in his rookie season. But from a dynasty perspective, the 1.01 this year is not equal to what it has been in the past few (Barkley, Gurley, etc).

If I held the 1.01, I would find a sucker to pay king's ransom for this pick.

 

Bust vibe no.  I can see the Yeldon comp a bit from a situation standpoint, and Yeldon did disappoint when it was his backfield alone.  Could be a similar situation there.  But Yeldon was always more of a finesse player than a bruiser type, Jacobs has both to his game and he seems more adaptable.  I still think Yeldon will become something in the NFL and his situation denied him that opportunity, now he's in a place that can use him better.  Josh Jacobs gets a good situation right off the bat though in the Raiders.  

And yes, everyone knows by now the 1.01 isn't worth what it was in non-poor draft classes.  Nobody is/will/should pay a kings ransom. 

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3 hours ago, Raptors409 said:

Anyone else getting the bust vibe from him? He's much more reminiscent of TJ Yeldon than an NFL workhorse. I have no doubt the volume will be there, heck he might even be good value in redraft ala Trent Richardson in his rookie season. But from a dynasty perspective, the 1.01 this year is not equal to what it has been in the past few (Barkley, Gurley, etc).

If I held the 1.01, I would find a sucker to pay king's ransom for this pick.

 

Not a great insight to say he's not Barkley, Gurley or Zeke.  Could he bust, maybe, but there's really no reason to think he'll bust any more than any other low 1st high 2nd round RB pick.

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8 hours ago, Buckna said:

Cadillac was a top pick who hurt his knee but still ceded like 30~40% of the touches to guys like Earnest Graham even when healthy. Pittmann was nothing special talent wise but was in a true RBBC with All Pro FB Mike Alstott back then.

Williams was my top pick in 2005. I still really like his play style. Similar to TD and Foster.

IIRC Chucky didn't give Williams any snaps during preseason. Once the season began Williams had 27 rushing attempts game one, then 24 rushing attempts game two, 38 touches in game three and he got hurt in their 4th game, missed two games following that and was used sparingly when he returned to the line up.

If Jacobs is up to the task he should be a very busy player. I might be more worried about Chucky breaking him.

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17 minutes ago, Man In The Box said:

Where does this guy land in redraft? Lamar Miller type tier? A bit higher?

Good lord I hope he does way better than Miller 

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10 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Good lord I hope he does way better than Miller 

Strictly asking about 2019. Miller had 1150 total yards and 6 TD last season. Is that way too little to expect from Jacobs?

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6 hours ago, Raptors409 said:

Anyone else getting the bust vibe from him? He's much more reminiscent of TJ Yeldon than an NFL workhorse. I have no doubt the volume will be there, heck he might even be good value in redraft ala Trent Richardson in his rookie season. But from a dynasty perspective, the 1.01 this year is not equal to what it has been in the past few (Barkley, Gurley, etc).

If I held the 1.01, I would find a sucker to pay king's ransom for this pick.

 

 No one is paying a King’s ransom for the 1.01 - everyone else is also aware that it’s just not as valuable this year. 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

 No one is paying a King’s ransom for the 1.01 - everyone else is also aware that it’s just not as valuable this year. 

True, which is why I suggested that you find a sucker. Build him up. Talk about how there's going to be running lanes for days as teams sellout to stop Antonio Brown. Kid had a very humbling upbringing and has the privilege of playing with a football genius like Jon Gruden. What attributes do you like in a running back?

Size?
Speed?
Production?


It's all there.

Edited by Raptors409

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59 minutes ago, Raptors409 said:

True, which is why I suggested that you find a sucker. Build him up. Talk about how there's going to be running lanes for days as teams sellout to stop Antonio Brown. Kid had a very humbling upbringing and has the privilege of playing with a football genius like Jon Gruden. What attributes do you like in a running back?

Size?
Speed?
Production?


It's all there.

I'm sold!

Wait, you just made me want to keep him.

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In all seriousness Raptors is going to hate me.  I actually have an offer of James Conner for him in the league where I have 1.01 and I'm having a really hard time clicking the accept button even though I know it's the right thing to do.

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14 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

In all seriousness Raptors is going to hate me.  I actually have an offer of James Conner for him in the league where I have 1.01 and I'm having a really hard time clicking the accept button even though I know it's the right thing to do.

I just finished updating my dynasty rankings board a bit (first draft) and I now have Josh Jacobs and James Conner back to back at RB12 and RB13.  Conner being 1 tier ahead of Jacobs but I think it's very close.  

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On 4/28/2019 at 9:25 PM, Raptors409 said:

True, which is why I suggested that you find a sucker. Build him up. Talk about how there's going to be running lanes for days as teams sellout to stop Antonio Brown. Kid had a very humbling upbringing and has the privilege of playing with a football genius like Jon Gruden. What attributes do you like in a running back?

Size?
Speed?
Production?


It's all there.

LOL 1 of 3 ain’t bad. The real selling point is draft capital and opportunity.

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17 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Well, Jacobs’ leash just got longer.  Crowell out for the year with a torn Achilles tendon.

He went 2.16 (RB15) over in the Mock Drafts forum yesterday morning, before the news on Crow.

I thought that price was too rich for my blood at the time, but today I'd say that'll probably be close to his going rate moving forward.

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On 4/28/2019 at 6:26 PM, Biabreakable said:

If Jacobs is up to the task he should be a very busy player. I might be more worried about Chucky breaking him.

I know this statement was made somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but the reality is we have no idea whether a guy who's never gotten more than 150 touches in a season can, you know, handle more than 150 touches in a season.

I love Jacobs' talent, but the "tread on the tires" argument is a specious one IMO. The best indicator of future durability is past durability.

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15 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

I know this statement was made somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but the reality is we have no idea whether a guy who's never gotten more than 150 touches in a season can, you know, handle more than 150 touches in a season.

I love Jacobs' talent, but the "tread on the tires" argument is a specious one IMO. The best indicator of future durability is past durability.

Why would it be facetious to say someone who has not been durable, may not be durable. His usage was double faceted which should have added to the concern of him as a prospect. 1) Saban choose not to use him while healthy and 2) when healthy and used moderately he sustained multiple injuries over the course of three seasons.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

Why would it be facetious to say someone who has not been durable, may not be durable. 

That's the opposite of what I'm calling facetious. (OK, not quite the opposite. I'm saying that those who were proven durable in college, e.g. Barkley, Gordon, are good bets to be durable pros. Those who have not, e.g. Jacobs, may or may not be - there's no way to know yet.)

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
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40 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Well, Jacobs’ leash just got longer.  Crowell out for the year with a torn Achilles tendon.

Yep... even the most ardent of detractors like myself have to admit that there will be ample opportunity and really no reason to not take him very early if you need a RB. We should know rather quickly what he is in the league. 

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

Well, Jacobs’ leash just got longer.  Crowell out for the year with a torn Achilles tendon.

 Bump up chris warren to rb2 now. They still have richard as well

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8 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

 Bump up chris warren to rb2 now. They still have richard as well

 

I like Richard to take over if Jacobs can’t get it done.  Chuckie has had success using Garner and Dunn, who are in the size/ability range.  That 5+ career ypc is difficult to simply dismiss, even though it is in limited work.

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I even had Richards on a roster last year and it STILL surprised me that he had 68 catches.

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