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Dr. Dan

Josh Jacobs - Raiders RB

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I'd say Richards is the backup to own, unless Chucky tries to trade for Duke Johnson (yeah, I know Cleveland is saying they won't trade him) 

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Does this (the torn achilles suffered by Crowell) cement Jacobs as the 1.01 in rookie drafts?

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40 minutes ago, Spike said:

Does this (the torn achilles suffered by Crowell) cement Jacobs as the 1.01 in rookie drafts?

IMO, yes. In a league where I'm more of a contender than not, I just started putting out feelers to move up and grab him there if the 1.01 guy isn't asking too much.

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53 minutes ago, Spike said:

Does this (the torn achilles suffered by Crowell) cement Jacobs as the 1.01 in rookie drafts?

 

If you thought he might struggle in the bigs before, this shouldn’t change anything.  If you were a proponent, it definitely reinforces that.

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4 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

I know this statement was made somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but the reality is we have no idea whether a guy who's never gotten more than 150 touches in a season can, you know, handle more than 150 touches in a season.

I love Jacobs' talent, but the "tread on the tires" argument is a specious one IMO. The best indicator of future durability is past durability.

Agreed.

I just dont think Gruden is a RBBC guy. 

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29 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Agreed.

I just dont think Gruden is a RBBC guy. 

Just looked through his usage and seems willing to do so if the situation dictates  (Pittman/Alstott of early Buc years) but if he thinks there's a true lead back,, he'll have a bell cow (Cadillac Williams).  

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Great in passing game.  I think he'll get enough touches as a rookie to be an RB2.  

If the offense clicks he might sneak into Rb1 territory

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Did anyone see the now deleted tweet of Jacobs working with the Raiders this weekend? He looked so clumsy like they just pulled someone off the street.

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7 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Did anyone see the now deleted tweet of Jacobs working with the Raiders this weekend? He looked so clumsy like they just pulled someone off the street.

Ouch.

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10 hours ago, metoo said:

https://twitter.com/BairNBCS/status/1124738606914949120

"And I deleted that Josh Jacobs clip. Can’t take another misinterpretation and overgeneralization of a technique-focused positional drill on the first day of a rookie minicamp done at far, far less than full speed. Uncle. Toxic thread is dead." 

Context definitely matters. It will be really interesting to see what happens if Jacobs succeeds or fails, will RBs in college try to have less touches knowing that you can still make it to the NFL?

Right now I think he's the 1.01 if you need a RB over a WR, but it's definitely risky. 

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11 hours ago, metoo said:

https://twitter.com/BairNBCS/status/1124738606914949120

 

And I deleted that Josh Jacobs clip. Can’t take another misinterpretation and overgeneralization of a technique-focused positional drill on the first day of a rookie minicamp done at far, far less than full speed. Uncle. Toxic thread is dead.

Hes a reporter right? I mean, wft is that? 

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Just wanted to chime in here that there are a lot of red flags with Jacobs as I've posted in other threads.  

 

5.3 YPC with limited usage, behind one of the best offensive lines in college football

History of Alabama RB underperformance

"Limited Combine"

Limited wiggle

5'10" 220   

Raiders offense has been far from explosive

 

It's astonishing to me the fantasy "experts" are on this guy.   We must have been watching different tape.

Edited by TripItUp

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17 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Just wanted to chime in here that there are a lot of red flags with Jacobs as I've posted in other threads.  

 

5.3 YPC with limited usage, behind one of the best offensive lines in college football

History of Alabama RB underperformance

"Limited Combine"

Limited wiggle

5'10" 220   

Raiders offense has been far from explosive

 

It's astonishing to me the fantasy "experts" are on this guy.   We must have been watching different tape.

If you looked at draft capital and nothing else he still stands a >50% chance of significantly productive seasons. I do not like him as a prospect for any other reason. You can only fight the odds so much. I think this is more an indication of where the league’s scouting group think lay than the fantasy community. The fantasy community (fantasy dynasty market) is going to take shots on 1st round picks and history and data says they absolutely should.

Edited by Bojang0301
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Jacobs owes Kamara some money, as his success as a versatile RBBC guy out of the SEC may have eased some concerns that the league has about burning a premium pick on a part-time college player. I guess you could point to Michel too, as the Pats took him high last year even though he was the second best back on his college team. Each situation is unique and with Damien Harris also in the backfield,  you can understand why Jacobs wasn't more prolific. I don't know how Bama's 2018 OL graded, but in the clips I saw they weren't necessarily as dominant as you would expect. The thing you might be sleeping on about Jacobs is his receiving skills. The NFL covets mismatch weapons and it's very hard to find a 220+ pound back who can also give you a lot of value in the receiving game. He averaged 12+ yards per catch last season and is very good in space.

I actually took Jacobs in the late first of a dev draft two years ago and at the time I thought he was probably a day two guy. Did he rise too much this year? It's possible, but when you look at his skill set, there are no major holes. Big, mobile, versatile. Maybe not an elite back in terms of game speed and big play skills, but he projects well as a high volume three down guy. Somewhere between Mark Ingram and Zeke Elliott in talent and style. More ability in space than Ingram. Not as fast as Zeke. The 40 time is a question mark and it's reinforced by underwhelming long run stats in college, but that's about the only big issue.

If you look at the players in this draft, who else is a clear #1 guy? Harry was a LATE 1st despite being a big WR with good workout numbers. His tape is good, but not mind-blowing. Sanders is perhaps a little more explosive than Jacobs, but not as big/powerful. Montgomery isn't as dynamic. AJ Brown and DK Metcalf fell pretty far in the NFL draft. I think Metcalf is being overdrafted by 5-10 spots in rookie drafts. I don't see a can't-miss guy who you can feel great about in the top 3-4 picks this year. Jacobs and Harry seem to have the best case. Either one is justifiable to me, but in a lot of years, guys like this might be there at 1.03-1.04. This draft doesn't have a Peterson, Richardson, Barkley, etc. There's no Crabtree, Blackmon, or Julio at WR.

Will someone from deeper in the draft class outproduce Jacobs? It's very possible. Who had Michael Thomas as the top WR in his draft? JuJu? Antonio Brown? TY Hilton? Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, and Jamaal Charles over Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, and Jonathan Stewart? The draft is a science, but it's an imperfect science and when a guy is taken first at his position, he has to beat out every other guy in his class to justify that pick. Those are long odds, but historically the first guy drafted at his position has the BEST chance to be the best guy from his class and I don't see a reason to let Jacobs fall below the 1.02 pick this year.

Edited by EBF
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45 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Just wanted to chime in here that there are a lot of red flags with Jacobs as I've posted in other threads.  

 

5.3 YPC with limited usage, behind one of the best offensive lines in college football

History of Alabama RB underperformance

"Limited Combine"

Limited wiggle

5'10" 220   

Raiders offense has been far from explosive

 

It's astonishing to me the fantasy "experts" are on this guy.   We must have been watching different tape.

While I do think Jacobs is one of the worst 1.1 prospects in recent memory, I'd still take him there if I couldn't deal the pick.

The 5.3 YPC isn't bad at all, Alabama's o-line is nothing special, it was basically 1 star, and a bunch of meh. Jacobs averaged 4.1 YAC, which is very high. Almost 80% of his yards were after contact.

How is 5-10 220 a red flag? That is ideal in my opinion.

I'll agree his pro day was awful, but his tape showed some wiggle, and lots of power, combined with very good receiving skills. He will get caught from behind though. 

The Raiders offense looks the best its looked in years on paper. 

He's not your typical 1.1 RB, but I think he's right there with guys like Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel talent wise. Could argue his situation is better than theirs, as they have more competition for work, despite Michel being in a better offense. I'm not sure I'd call the Lions a better offense than Oakland.

Ultimately, I think he'll settle in at the RB10-15 range.

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8 hours ago, travdogg said:

 

The 5.3 YPC isn't bad at all, Alabama's o-line is nothing special, it was basically 1 star, and a bunch of meh. Jacobs averaged 4.1 YAC, which is very high. Almost 80% of his yards were after contact.

 

Whoa Nelly!  Is this the point of the discussion where we get to make up facts?  ‘Bama’s O-line was ranked #2 in the country - and was graded higher in their run blocking than their pass blocking.  That offense put up the 2nd highest ypp in the country.  Put Montgomery behind that O line and Jacobs running behind the crap that Monty was at Iowa St and Jacobs would likely be going 3rd round or later in FF drafts.

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

Whoa Nelly!  Is this the point of the discussion where we get to make up facts?  ‘Bama’s O-line was ranked #2 in the country - and was graded higher in their run blocking than their pass blocking.  That offense put up the 2nd highest ypp in the country.  Put Montgomery behind that O line and Jacobs running behind the crap that Monty was at Iowa St and Jacobs would likely be going 3rd round or later in FF drafts.

Jacobs averaged 1.2 yards before contact, one of the lowest in the NCAA. He averaged 4.1 after contact, one of the highest in the NCAA. He wasn't running through massive lanes at all.

If they were swapped, I'm not confident Montgomery would have done any better, and its possible if Jacobs had Montgomery's workload, he'd be thought of even higher, since his biggest knock was lack of production. Jacobs had 253 career attempts, Montgomery topped that each of the last 2 seasons.

 

 

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Just now, travdogg said:

Jacobs averaged 1.2 yards before contact, one of the lowest in the NCAA. He averaged 4.1 after contact, one of the highest in the NCAA. He wasn't running through massive lanes at all.

If they were swapped, I'm not confident Montgomery would have done any better, and its possible if Jacobs had Montgomery's workload, he'd be thought of even higher, since his biggest knock was lack of production. Jacobs had 253 career attempts, Montgomery topped that each of the last 2 seasons.

 

 

 

That Jacobs could only muster 1.2 yards before contact behind that line ought to be setting off huge alarms.  What happens when he runs in the NFL and the holes are a lot smaller and close a lot quicker?

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7 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Jacobs averaged 1.2 yards before contact, one of the lowest in the NCAA.

This is not always a function of the o-line. Poor vision or poor burst by the RB can also factor in that stat. Do you really believe the top college program in the nation that has been built around it's defense and running game had a bad o-line?

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12 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

This is not always a function of the o-line. Poor vision or poor burst by the RB can also factor in that stat. Do you really believe the top college program in the nation that has been built around it's defense and running game had a bad o-line?

 

It’s kind of odd to me the way some stats are turned on their heads at times.  You’ve got Jacobs only managing 1.2 ybc as a positive for him despite his running behind one of the very best o lines in the country.  That he couldn’t force his way onto the field except in very limited circumstances despite ‘Bama having plenty of second half blowout opportunities is turned into a positive that he’s got a lot of tread on the tires.  That he worked out so poorly is just set aside completely.

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I think Jacobs' YPC needs some context.  His YPC was much higher his freshman/sophmore years, which is likely at least in part due to his inflated amount of short yardage work relative to his total number of carries his junior year.

Jacobs averaged 6.2ypc between the 20's last year and 3.8ypc in the redzone.  Not necessarily a unique split since you expect most RBs to have a lower YPC in the redzone with the defense more packed in.  What was unique to Jacobs was that a full 25% of his carries (30 out of 120) last year were redzone carries, which is a very high percentage relative to most teams. 

Damien Harris saw a similar high number of RZ carries for Bama but he was also aided by some 3rd and long draws, of which Jacobs received zero.  Again on the high side of percentage of carries, Jacobs saw 17 carries on 3rd down last year and a whopping 16 of them were in 1-3 yard to go situations.  That means 13% of his carries were in 3rd and short situations, and that's not counting the ones he got that were inside the 3 yard line (I couldn't find data on that).  For comparison Najee Harris had 4% of his carries in those situations and Damien Harris had 5%.

Montgomery was 20% in the redzone and 8% 3rd and 3 or less.  Still high relative to some backs, but lower than Jacobs.

I wish I could find data on the goaline runs as I'm guessing if the 3rd and short trends hold up Jacobs was getting a high percentage of those carries for Bama as well, which again would really affect YPC with a sample of only 120 runs.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

This feels like really trying to find a good reason to like a guy.

Eh, I see just as many attempts to find a good reason not to like a guy.

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3 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Eh, I see just as many attempts to find a good reason not to like a guy.

Nah, most of those are pretty obvious. You don't have to try too hard not to like a guy with 5.2 ypc while sharing carries at Alabama.

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On the field, on tape, Jacobs performed like an elite 3-down back (sans the heavy workload). He consistently displayed vision, patience, burst, wiggle, toughness, route running, hands and pass pro. Literally the only elite skill this guy didn't display at AL was long speed. Anyone who says he has no wiggle and/or no burst is either short sighted or narrow minded when it comes to this guy. It happens to the best of us, once we decide we don't like a player and dig heels. I've certainly done it with certain players over the years. 

In terms of talent display, Jacobs is a Jack of All Trades. My projection is over time, health permitting, he'll become a master of some.

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4 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Nah, most of those are pretty obvious. You don't have to try too hard not to like a guy with 5.2 ypc while sharing carries at Alabama.

Oh yeah, 5.2 YPC for the dedicated red-zone runner of the team everyone was targeting on their calendar, while primarily playing against SEC defenses. Pure garbage. :rolleyes:

This is exactly what I was referring to when I said some of you are reaching for reasons to hate. The only legit rationale I've heard are his (somewhat) underwhelming athletic testing measurables and his lack of feature back playing time. Those are absolutely red flags, but they are countered by his game tape. We'll see where the truth lies with this dude, but I see more reasons to like him than to hate. Every year dudes who win the underwear olympics get overdrafted, while ballers who test poorly fall. This guy smells a lot like the latter. Underwear, balls and smells. Yeah, you read that right.

 

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Here's one more legit red flag, to be fair. Raiders have been a scorching dumpster fire for three decades now, save for three Chucky I seasons at the turn of the century and what now seems like a flukey 2016 season, with a team that has since been almost completely torn down (except for Daverek Carr and Rodney Hudson).

I personally lost almost all faith I had in Gruden after last season's Khalil Mack debacle. But my rose-colored glasses are back on with Mayock's off season. Perhaps, positive change is in the air. Too early to judge still, but they've certainly added a lot of talent on paper. Still, three decades of burning trash is the overwhelming back-drop here.

Edited by LawFitz
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17 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Nah, most of those are pretty obvious. You don't have to try too hard not to like a guy with 5.2 ypc while sharing carries at Alabama.

I don't think Alabama's system puts out the kind of per touch efficiency that you think it does.

Here are Bama's NFL drafted RBs that we've seen play in the NFL who have split time (between 100 and 200 carries).

2008 Mark Ingram - 5.1ypc on 143att
2010 Mark Ingram - 5.5ypc on 158att
2010 Trent Richardson - 6.3ypc on 114att
2014 TJ Yeldon - 5.0ypc on 194att
2014 Derrick Henry - 5.8ypc on 172att

There are some bigger seasons out there like Kenyan Drake putting up 7.3ypc on 90 attempts (though he followed it up with 5.3 on 80 attempts the next year) and Damien Harris had a big year 2 years ago as well, but this isn't one of those spread college systems that churns out a bunch of 8+ ypc statistics.

 

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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I don't think Alabama's system puts out the kind of per touch efficiency that you think it does.

Here are Bama's NFL drafted RBs that we've seen play in the NFL who have split time (between 100 and 200 carries).

2008 Mark Ingram - 5.1ypc on 143att
2010 Mark Ingram - 5.5ypc on 158att
2010 Trent Richardson - 6.3ypc on 114att
2014 TJ Yeldon - 5.0ypc on 194att
2014 Derrick Henry - 5.8ypc on 172att

There are some bigger seasons out there like Kenyan Drake putting up 7.3ypc on 90 attempts (though he followed it up with 5.3 on 80 attempts the next year) and Damien Harris had a big year 2 years ago as well, but this isn't one of those spread college systems that churns out a bunch of 8+ ypc statistics.

 

that's because Bama didn't recruit Darrel Henderson.

 

Also, that's not exactly a stellar list there.

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8 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Oh yeah, 5.2 YPC for the dedicated red-zone runner of the team everyone was targeting on their calendar, while primarily playing against SEC defenses. Pure garbage. :rolleyes:

This is exactly what I was referring to when I said some of you are reaching for reasons to hate. The only legit rationale I've heard are his (somewhat) underwhelming athletic testing measurables and his lack of feature back playing time. Those are absolutely red flags, but they are countered by his game tape.

The tape is eye of the beholder stuff. The analytics not so much; they aren't in favor of Jacobs. People who like his tape are searching for reasons to explain away the numbers, like why his ypc are so low. That's all I'm saying.

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2 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

The tape is eye of the beholder stuff. The analytics not so much; they aren't in favor of Jacobs. People who like his tape are searching for reasons to explain away the numbers, like why his ypc are so low. That's all I'm saying.

"Analytics" are plenty subjective, right? The data are varied and we pick and choose what we value. Charting past outcomes by draft spot is "analytics" - and Jacobs is tops in his class, according that model. YPC as a standalone state is a poor model. Same with YAC, YBC, etc, etc. I haven't read every post in the thread, but somebody point me to a quality model that doesn't like Jacobs. 

This isn't baseball. Especially at the college level, these numbers need context. 

 

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

This is not always a function of the o-line. Poor vision or poor burst by the RB can also factor in that stat. Do you really believe the top college program in the nation that has been built around it's defense and running game had a bad o-line?

The stat requires too much external context to be of any value, imo. Never mind teasing out RB vs Oline performance, a raw number can't account for scheme, competition, game script, etc. Bama runs a pro-style offense and plays a tough schedule. How do you compare that to small conference speed guys in spread offenses, for example? It feels like noise to me. 

 

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16 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Limited wiggle

You said the same thing about Dalvin Cook proving you dont know what wiggle looks like.

I think Jacob's has good enough footwork and change of direction ability to be a successful RB at the NFL level.

As a runner I would say his best trait is power. He uses good leverage to gain yards after contact. 

I dont think Jacob's is elite in any of the traits you might value. He is good or above average in most of them though.

He does look very good as a receiving option. He runs WR routes and catches the ball well. 

The receiving ability or his power are his best skills, but he can do a bit of everything.

 

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20 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

You said the same thing about Dalvin Cook proving you dont know what wiggle looks like.

 

 

Cook has been disappointing...not sure you want to ride or die on that one.

That being said, Cook does have limited wiggle...I nailed that one.

Edited by TripItUp

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19 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

 

I think Jacob's has good enough footwork and change of direction ability to be a successful RB at the NFL level.

 

what does that mean...pretty vague.

Edited by TripItUp

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Charting past outcomes by draft spot is "analytics" - and Jacobs is tops in his class, according that model. 

You nailed it with this one. I cant argue with you about it. He's the 1.01 for me on draft capital alone. 

Luckily we already have the benefit of knowing this already. Because I wouldnt have guessed it. I'm not seeing the same things as the nfl. I'm not alone either.

You have to admit hes not your typical 1st round running back. And when somebody might bring up a black eye for him, we get a bunch of excuses all over the place.

Maybe we all just do this instead: :shrug:

Edited by cloppbeast

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

"Analytics" are plenty subjective, right? The data are varied and we pick and choose what we value. Charting past outcomes by draft spot is "analytics" - and Jacobs is tops in his class, according that model. YPC as a standalone state is a poor model. Same with YAC, YBC, etc, etc. I haven't read every post in the thread, but somebody point me to a quality model that doesn't like Jacobs. 

This isn't baseball. Especially at the college level, these numbers need context. 

 

I’m seeing a whole lot of whack YPC discussion in this thread. Let me try to take CC’s excellent point a bit further. As humans it’s normal for us to want a tidy little metric that gives order to the chaos of a football season. The only problem with that is YPC sucks. It has insufficient stickiness or predictive value.

Back in the 1960s they sold vibrating belts to people that didn’t feel like going to the gym, the idea being you could just sit there and let the belt jiggle all your fat away. If grinding football tape and trying to develop a superior understanding of context is the fantasy football version of going to the gym, using YPC is the equivalent of a vibrating belt machine, it’s lazy and it doesn’t work. So be aware that when you come on a messageboard saying YPC this and YPC that, you look like the fat dude at the gym telling skinny people how to get results.

Edited by electric Ape
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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

You nailed it with this one. I cant argue with you about it. He's the 1.01 for me on draft capital alone. 

Luckily we already have the benefit of knowing this already. Because I wouldnt have guessed it. I'm not seeing the same things as the nfl. I'm not alone either.

You have to admit hes not your typical 1st round running back. And when somebody might bring up a black eye for him, we get a bunch of excuses all over the place.

Maybe we all just do this instead: :shrug:

He's not a typical 1st round back, in terms of production and workout metrics. But the tape looks a lot better than his production and workout metrics would suggest, too. I'm not sure I see a first round back, based soley on my eyes, but I certainly see a talent with a lot of plus traits. 

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1 hour ago, electric Ape said:

 

Back in the 1960s they sold vibrating belts to people that didn’t feel like going to the gym, the idea being you could just sit there and let the belt jiggle all your fat away.

Off topic, but this concept is now back with the vibrating platforms. It's a complete joke. And people still buy this crap

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2 hours ago, electric Ape said:

Back in the 1960s they sold vibrating belts to people that didn’t feel like going to the gym, the idea being you could just sit there and let the belt jiggle all your fat away.

This was on an episode of MadMen. Pretty sure it gave women orgasms though.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Off topic, but this concept is now back with the vibrating platforms. It's a complete joke. And people still buy this crap

I was gonna say you can go get a new one I'm sure.

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20 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

This was on an episode of MadMen. Pretty sure it gave women orgasms though.

Wash your mouth out with soap, cloppbeast! This is a family messageboard, keep your disgusting ideas to yourself. You probably think personal massagers aren’t for a lady’s aching shoulders :)

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4 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Cook has been disappointing...not sure you want to ride or die on that one.

That being said, Cook does have limited wiggle...I nailed that one.

He’s only been disappointing when he’s injured.

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