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Dr. Dan

Josh Jacobs - Raiders RB

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56 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Absolutely, it's a best case take. I can openly admit it

 

What makes you have Jacob's above Cook? I'm surprised by that. 

I’m worried about his injury history and the Vikings drafting Mattison. The NFL draft and free agency is the only time NFL teams don’t lie about what they are doing. I’m also worried about Michel and his knees and the drafting of Harris. You might be noticing a pattern. 🙂

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Absolutely, it's a best case take. I can openly admit it

 

What makes you have Jacob's above Cook? I'm surprised by that. 

I like cook's upside more especially for 2019, because it seems like they are all in on featuring him this year. And in redraft I've always thought rookies take a couple weeks to really hit their stride even if they start from day one.  I don't know if the stats bear that out but it feels that way. 

But in dynasty, I'll take Jacobs over cook because the downside is so much worse for cook. I really like the raiders o line for run blocking. If Jacobs is mediocre this year he'll still get volume.  They're very unlikely to bench him or start Doug martin over him the whole year. And he should get 25 catches even in the nightmare scenario. If he gets hurt, he'll be brought back in as the rb1 next year. Hard to imagine the raiders having 5 first round picks in two years and using two on running backs. 

But if cook gets hurt, or even if he just fails to live up to expectations, the Vikings will have to seriously consider upgrading the position. They might not take a back in the first round, but cook's already missed more games than he's played through two seasons. He needs to play the majority of the games this yea and next or he will be labeled injury prone and have a hard time getting a second contract as a workhorse.  

I feel a little more confident in Jacobs than cook because of that risk. 

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I'm very happy that the Raiders will be on Hard Knocks and we can get an early in-depth look at Jacobs, hopefully. 

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2 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

I'm very happy that the Raiders will be on Hard Knocks and we can get an early in-depth look at Jacobs, hopefully. 

Agreed. Should be awesome. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Gandalf said:

I’m worried about his injury history and the Vikings drafting Mattison. The NFL draft and free agency is the only time NFL teams don’t lie about what they are doing. I’m also worried about Michel and his knees and the drafting of Harris. You might be noticing a pattern. 🙂

So every time an NFL team drafts depth at RB, it's time to worry?

The Vikes had no one behind Cook. Sony I can see because he has knee issues...

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

So every time an NFL team drafts depth at RB, it's time to worry?

The Vikes had no one behind Cook. Sony I can see because he has knee issues...

Cook's played in 15 games and missed 17 with injury. 

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18 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Cook's played in 15 games and missed 17 with injury. 

That's why Cook is a great high-end #2, but a super risky #1. But his upside is higher than Jacobs this year, imo. 

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23 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

So every time an NFL team drafts depth at RB, it's time to worry?

The Vikes had no one behind Cook. Sony I can see because he has knee issues...

Haha yes! I think Guice, cook and Michell each have there share of injury stuff. Same as Gurley by the way.

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So how high do you rank Jacobs in redraft for 2019?

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3 hours ago, Gandalf said:

So how high do you rank Jacobs in redraft for 2019?

Today 15-20.

 

Tex

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Jacobs touches will be tied to his use on passing downs and receptions.  This is a passing O and an O that will be playing catch up for half of most games.  Gruden can talk about wanting to run the ball but that doesn't work when his D is below average and giving up points.  

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9 hours ago, DocHolliday said:

Jacobs touches will be tied to his use on passing downs and receptions.  This is a passing O and an O that will be playing catch up for half of most games.  Gruden can talk about wanting to run the ball but that doesn't work when his D is below average and giving up points.  

Good insight, as always, Doc -- agree and add that this also depends on the O-line's development -- especially the left side that has a second year player yet to prove his worth (Miller) and an over-the-hill powder-keg coming back after more than a year off the game (Incognito).

I have high hopes for Jacobs but in mocks I've seen, think he's being overvalued given these potential weak spots. But seeing Jacobs on Hard Knocks will help give an advanced look at him and how this team continues to gel together.

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23 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Good insight, as always, Doc -- agree and add that this also depends on the O-line's development -- especially the left side that has a second year player yet to prove his worth (Miller) and an over-the-hill powder-keg coming back after more than a year off the game (Incognito).

I have high hopes for Jacobs but in mocks I've seen, think he's being overvalued given these potential weak spots. But seeing Jacobs on Hard Knocks will help give an advanced look at him and how this team continues to gel together.

Jacobs has potential for volume but I don't see a lot of successful runs.  

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I'm gonna be overpaying to grab the 1.01. A high character, possibly fantasy relevant Raider to root for. I want him

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, FreshiZ said:

I'm gonna be overpaying to grab the 1.01. A high character, possibly fantasy relevant Raider to root for. I want him

What's overpaying?

In a recent startup super flex I gave

4.01, rookie 2.06 for 10.01, rookie 1.01

Ended up being Zach Ertz, 2.06 for Kyle Rudolph, 1.01

Edited by -OZ-
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12 hours ago, -OZ- said:

What's overpaying?

In a recent startup super flex I gave

4.01, rookie 2.06 for 10.01, rookie 1.01

Ended up being Zach Ertz, 2.06 for Kyle Rudolph, 1.01

Sorry, want the deal to go through 1st before posting. Will update when done

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What am I missing here, he's a terrific RB on a team with a top 5 O-line, with a HC who LOVES to pound the rock and use RB's as receivers out of the backfield, playing in a division with some overrated defenses like KC and SD, and one in Denver that is slated to win just 7 games ( vegas line on o/u). 

Raiders have no one else on the roster worth mentioning do they? 

52 yr old Antonio Brown can still put fear in defenses.

this kid could be Saquoun lite..

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On 6/19/2019 at 5:09 AM, Tanner9919 said:

What am I missing here, he's a terrific RB on a team with a top 5 O-line, with a HC who LOVES to pound the rock and use RB's as receivers out of the backfield, playing in a division with some overrated defenses like KC and SD, and one in Denver that is slated to win just 7 games ( vegas line on o/u). 

Raiders have no one else on the roster worth mentioning do they? 

52 yr old Antonio Brown can still put fear in defenses.

this kid could be Saquoun lite..

Very lite. 

Fwiw, I'm sitting at the 1.01 in a new league, need a back (currently starting Henry and Miller), with an offer I'm considering but that's for a wr which is already a strength. 

I'm almost certainly keeping the pick and taking Jacobs (even though it's super flex). But man I wish I were more sold on him. 

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On 6/19/2019 at 5:09 AM, Tanner9919 said:

What am I missing here, he's a terrific RB on a team with a top 5 O-line, with a HC who LOVES to pound the rock and use RB's as receivers out of the backfield, playing in a division with some overrated defenses like KC and SD, and one in Denver that is slated to win just 7 games ( vegas line on o/u). 

Raiders have no one else on the roster worth mentioning do they? 

52 yr old Antonio Brown can still put fear in defenses.

this kid could be Saquoun lite..

 

Saquon lite?  Really?  What does he have in common with Barkley - I mean, beside being a running back?

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On 6/19/2019 at 5:09 AM, Tanner9919 said:

 

this kid could be Saquoun lite..

pump the brakes a little. 

 

I think his owners should be happy if he has a season like Mack or Lamar Miller each had in 2018. Would be the best hes produced since jr and sr season of high school

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30 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Tannershtick is almost as fun as Milkmanshtick.

I assumed the Tanner post was all sarcasm.   He is showing how little faith he has in Jacobs, Gruden, and the Raiders.  

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On 6/18/2019 at 5:28 PM, -OZ- said:

What's overpaying?

In a recent startup super flex I gave

4.01, rookie 2.06 for 10.01, rookie 1.01

Ended up being Zach Ertz, 2.06 for Kyle Rudolph, 1.01

Cross posted from the trade thread. Gave Marlon Mack, Mike Williams for the 1.01.

I call it an overpay because of all the hype Mack is getting and I'd probably bet that Mack does have a better year than Jacobs this year but I'm still not sold on Mack long term. Jacobs has that 6+ year solid starter upside IMO. Williams kind of hurts to give up as he's been getting better every year and has Tyrell out of his way now but I figure I've got a 50/50 shot to replace his production with my late 1st pick. He was my WR4 anyways.

But mainly I'm just a lol Raider fan so want someone on my team to root for.

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2 hours ago, FreshiZ said:

Cross posted from the trade thread. Gave Marlon Mack, Mike Williams for the 1.01.

I call it an overpay because of all the hype Mack is getting and I'd probably bet that Mack does have a better year than Jacobs this year but I'm still not sold on Mack long term. Jacobs has that 6+ year solid starter upside IMO. Williams kind of hurts to give up as he's been getting better every year and has Tyrell out of his way now but I figure I've got a 50/50 shot to replace his production with my late 1st pick. He was my WR4 anyways.

But mainly I'm just a lol Raider fan so want someone on my team to root for.

you did well. a young 20 something with a herniated disc is no good

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5 hours ago, FreshiZ said:

Cross posted from the trade thread. Gave Marlon Mack, Mike Williams for the 1.01.

I call it an overpay because of all the hype Mack is getting and I'd probably bet that Mack does have a better year than Jacobs this year but I'm still not sold on Mack long term. Jacobs has that 6+ year solid starter upside IMO. Williams kind of hurts to give up as he's been getting better every year and has Tyrell out of his way now but I figure I've got a 50/50 shot to replace his production with my late 1st pick. He was my WR4 anyways.

But mainly I'm just a lol Raider fan so want someone on my team to root for.

Probably fair but I wouldn't give Jacobs for that.

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@-OZ- sorry if you've already posted it, but I'm curious about your interpretation of Saban's usage of Jacobs.  I have my own bias, but it's from a distance.  You being on the ground I think could provide more context to help steer where I think mine should be.

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10 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Probably fair but I wouldn't give Jacobs for that.

Ditto

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Posted (edited)

Jacobs is not good at football.  I suspect he’ll be a disappointment based on pretty much every measurable.

 

He should be compared to Malcolm brown, not saquon.

 

He’s a glorified jag that the Raiders reached on.  The fantasy sheep equate draft position to fantasy value and here we are.

 

 

 

Edited by TripItUp

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Jacobs is not good at football.  I suspect he’ll be a disappointment based on pretty much every measurable.

 

He should be compared to Malcolm brown, not saquon.

 

He’s a glorified jag that the Raiders reached on.  The fantasy sheep equate draft position to fantasy value and here we are.

Trip, I love you buddy. Nobody ever has to wonder how you feel or what you think.

I hope you're right about Jacobs; I haven't been able to get him at all ever. So yea, I tend to agree, at least he doesn't have the value of a normal 1st round running back. Too many questions. But to say he's not good at football is strange. He didn't run fast or jump high, and didn't up great stats. He only made it in the first round because how people interpreted watching him play football.

Edited by cloppbeast

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59 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Trip, I love you buddy. Nobody ever has to wonder how you feel or what you think.

I hope you're right about Jacobs; I haven't been able to get him at all ever. So yea, I tend to agree, at least he doesn't have the value of a normal 1st round running back. Too many questions. But to say he's not good at football is strange. He didn't run fast or jump high, or put up great stats. He only made it in the first round because how people interpreted watching him play football.

Did he really put up great stats?  

How many other Bama RBs have we seen disappoint with lesser measurables and stats?  Also, have we seen him take on anything close to the workload most are projecting him for?

Way too many red flags at his current adp IMO.

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44 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Did he really put up great stats?  

How many other Bama RBs have we seen disappoint with lesser measurables and stats?  Also, have we seen him take on anything close to the workload most are projecting him for?

Way too many red flags at his current adp IMO.

On these points we can agree.

But you clearly weren't watching him against Oklahoma or Georgia if you don't think he's good

He might be end up being much closer to Thomas Jones than Jamal Charles, he might have a rougher go than Derrick Henry. But the potential is there.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

On these points we can agree.

But you clearly weren't watching him against Oklahoma or Georgia if you don't think he's good

He might be end up being much closer to Thomas Jones than Jamal Charles, he might have a rougher go than Derrick Henry. But the potential is there.

Agree to disagree.  He’ll be lucky to have Jones’ career.

 

ETA I watched Georgia and Oklahoma 

Edited by TripItUp

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1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

On these points we can agree.

But you clearly weren't watching him against Oklahoma or Georgia if you don't think he's good

He might be end up being much closer to Thomas Jones than Jamal Charles, he might have a rougher go than Derrick Henry. But the potential is there.

He can probably be useful in a part time role.  As is I have no confidence he can be anything more than that though.  But that is why I asked you earlier about anything you may know about why Saban deployed him in the manner in which he did until he had to.

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14 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

He can probably be useful in a part time role.  As is I have no confidence he can be anything more than that though.  But that is why I asked you earlier about anything you may know about why Saban deployed him in the manner in which he did until he had to.

The only answer there, I think, is the other backs are really good too.

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On 6/26/2019 at 4:53 PM, -OZ- said:

The only answer there, I think, is the other backs are really good too.

Didn’t Jacobs workload increase as the year went on?

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6 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Didn’t Jacobs workload increase as the year went on?

Yes.

 

On 4/25/2019 at 8:52 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

I was looking through Jacobs game logs this morning and something struck as surprising that it hasn't been mentioned.  Much has been made of Jacobs' lack of usage, especially from a coach known for generally making good decisions.

However, what's surprising to me is that it's never come up that Jacobs' usage increased rather substantially throughout the season.

Through the first six games he never eclipsed six carries, and failed to log a reception in 4 of the 6 games.  Through the final 8 games he eclipsed six carries six times, and had double digit carries four times.  He logged at least one reception in 7 of the 8 games.

He still had some occasional games where he was barely used, like the game where he had only 3 touches against Citadel, but by and large his usage increased throughout the season.  This makes some sense when we consider that Damien Harris was considered one of the better backs of the 2019 class headed into the season, and Najee Harris (who's usage trended down the second half of the year) was considered one of the best candidates to break out as an elite player.

Obviously production/usage are still a big gap in his profile, but I thought it was worth noting that the whole "even Saban didn't use him that much" stuff is a bit incomplete.  Saban seemed to like what he was doing enough to continue increasing his role that originally had defaulted to the two much more pedigreed running backs.

Jacobs averaged 6 touches per game over the first 6 games and 13 touches per game over the final 8 games.

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9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yes.

 

13 touches still is pretty small. Although they are a loaded offense so I get it.  The worry for me is 2 fold.First, is this a case where he looked better than he is because of the Bama offense. We have seen lots of Bama RBs come into the NFL with a ton of hype and disappoint. Second, can his body sustain 15-20 NFL touches a game? We haven't seen him have to grind games out, play banged up, etc. Is he physically capable as a rookie to step-up his workload so dramatically? We are talking about likely doubling his touches from last year. It makes me a little nervous as a rookie. 

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

13 touches still is pretty small. Although they are a loaded offense so I get it.  The worry for me is 2 fold.First, is this a case where he looked better than he is because of the Bama offense. We have seen lots of Bama RBs come into the NFL with a ton of hype and disappoint. Second, can his body sustain 15-20 NFL touches a game? We haven't seen him have to grind games out, play banged up, etc. Is he physically capable as a rookie to step-up his workload so dramatically? We are talking about likely doubling his touches from last year. It makes me a little nervous as a rookie. 

It should.  I think anyone that says he isn't a good player (paraphrasing) probably didn't actually watch him play.  But there's literally no evidence to support him being a productive full time back.  Nothing anyone says changes that either.  In our game that obviously matters.  I think Oakland wants to utilize him in that manner, which obviously matters too.  But what does he actually do with the increased workload?  No one knows.

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29 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

It should.  I think anyone that says he isn't a good player (paraphrasing) probably didn't actually watch him play.  But there's literally no evidence to support him being a productive full time back.  Nothing anyone says changes that either.  In our game that obviously matters.  I think Oakland wants to utilize him in that manner, which obviously matters too.  But what does he actually do with the increased workload?  No one knows.

Yeah i feel more confident in his receiving targets than his rushing numbers. He should be the third target by default and might get more targets than tyrell williams. 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

Yeah i feel more confident in his receiving targets than his rushing numbers. He should be the third target by default and might get more targets than tyrell williams. 

I’m not a film expert but I did see a kind of odd profile on film and in the workout numbers. He’s big, strong and a slick receiver but I don’t see much burst. He’s really going to have to excel in the receiving game to provide value this year imo.

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14 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

He’s big, strong and a slick receiver but I don’t see much burst.

I can tolerate lack of long speed in an RB, but I agree about, and am concerned over Jacobs seeming lack of elite NFL burst.

That said, you don't require elite burst if you have high-end vision, wiggle, weight, hands and a coach that drafted you rd 1 + the hunger of a homeless kid background. I predict he'll be fantasy (and NFL) solid for as long as his body holds up, which admittedly is a separate and legitimate concern all by itself.

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On 6/27/2019 at 7:53 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

 

On 4/25/2019 at 7:52 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

I was looking through Jacobs game logs this morning and something struck as surprising that it hasn't been mentioned.  Much has been made of Jacobs' lack of usage, especially from a coach known for generally making good decisions.

However, what's surprising to me is that it's never come up that Jacobs' usage increased rather substantially throughout the season.

Through the first six games he never eclipsed six carries, and failed to log a reception in 4 of the 6 games.  Through the final 8 games he eclipsed six carries six times, and had double digit carries four times.  He logged at least one reception in 7 of the 8 games.

He still had some occasional games where he was barely used, like the game where he had only 3 touches against Citadel, but by and large his usage increased throughout the season.  This makes some sense when we consider that Damien Harris was considered one of the better backs of the 2019 class headed into the season, and Najee Harris (who's usage trended down the second half of the year) was considered one of the best candidates to break out as an elite player.

Obviously production/usage are still a big gap in his profile, but I thought it was worth noting that the whole "even Saban didn't use him that much" stuff is a bit incomplete.  Saban seemed to like what he was doing enough to continue increasing his role that originally had defaulted to the two much more pedigreed running backs.

Jacobs averaged 6 touches per game over the first 6 games and 13 touches per game over the final 8 games.

Looks like it was 11.5 touches per game over the final 8 games - 77 carries and 15 receptions. That gave him 39% of the 3-man workload, with 92 touches for JJ, 95 for DH, and 51 for NH.

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23 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I’m not a film expert but I did see a kind of odd profile on film and in the workout numbers. He’s big, strong and a slick receiver but I don’t see much burst. He’s really going to have to excel in the receiving game to provide value this year imo.

Matt Waldman compares him to Frank Gore and I like that comparison a lot.

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

Matt Waldman compares him to Frank Gore and I like that comparison a lot.

I can see that. Test wise Gore killed the agility drills where JJ flamed out in every drill. I can see Gore or Mark Ingram has being kind of a best case scenario for Jacobs.

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