Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Josh Jacobs, GB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Top 5 is pushing it I'm sure, and I totally get the concern over the limited production in college, but when I watch his highlights I am blown away. It's really baffling to me that this guy didn't get more usage at Bama. He's electric, his cuts are dynamic, and he has those stout thighs that allow him to run through arm tackles without losing any pace (which is my favorite asset for a RB). He caught passes downfield like a WR and was a pretty good blocker as well.
There is lots of risk I think because of the lack of production, but his upside seems massive.
There is lots of risk I think because of the lack of production, but his upside seems massive.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Fake scouts outdoing themselves this year. 
Gandalf
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
The thing is Alabama is so good they can play the safer back with more experience. He’s definitely one of the risky players though. There’s some Christine Michael hype to him.
Last edited by a moderator:
CMIKE was hyped because he had an outstanding combine. Jacobs is hyped because of how good he looks on tape. Night and day difference to me.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
guess I should start paying attention here......
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Not really... at all. In fact, I would say this is worse. People say he’s explosive but nothing about his stats suggests that about him or that he’s special. I’m avoiding this like the plague. His odds are so much higher for failure than any back from last year. Good luck to those who use a top pick on him thinking he’s Kamara. If Bruglar and co. are able to assess that they may as well go buy some lottery tickets while they’re at it.
Last edited by a moderator:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
At RB? Right now Darrell Henderson.Dr. Dan said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I do like Henderson, a lot, and potentially more than Jacobs. I'm not sure he is worth of a top 3 selection right now but if he is drafted into a good scenario I think he is without a doubt. you had a bunch of spreadsheets and so forth in this thread and 2019 thread making your case against Jacobs. where does Henderson fall in those same statistics?
Last edited by a moderator:
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I’ve put together the foundation for my spreadsheet this year but nothing is going to start being concrete until after pro days/combine. The only thing I could really comment on is that Henderson does have a lesser market share in comparison to his efficiency than I had hoped but I think his talent will come out in the combine and if I’m wrong on that I’ll be the first to admit.
I do have a twinge of fear based on my failure and continued stubbornness to identify the potential of Kamara. Situation does matter. Jacobs In KC would be a pretty huge boon even if probabilities suggest he’s more likely a bust than a success. I just think that a lot of the analysts that are putting Jacobs out as RB1 have 1) created a narrative that people have marched along to and 2) do not look at things from a fantasy perspective. Now the second point does tend to have a cross section with dynasty FF but they don’t care if his bust probablility is X or Y. As of right now I have to assume Jacobs is well liked in NFL circles or they wouldn’t be propagating it the way they are (and having Kiper/McShay follow suit). I’ve tried not to be overly critical of Jacobs. He’s a good receiver and that matters a lot in today’s NFL. He could also blow the doors off at the combine. I think it will be more apparent as to why I’m confused when the workouts start happening. If Rodney Anderson is able to run, then Holyfield, Weber, Singleton, Jordan Scarlett, Trayveon Williams and Miles Sanders (plus Kerrith Whyte and Tony Pollard) I expect to test as some plus plus athletes.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
The thing with Jacobs is that he is just as destination dependant as any of these RBs. Let's pretend Jacobs goes to TB round 1, and Henderson goes to KC round 2... I think you have a good debate for 1.1
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Agree, but a little less so for me. The more I watch Jacobs the more I really like what I see. If he goes in round 1 he is likely my 1.01 unless something truly perfect happens elsewhere.
I agree with what you say about KC but I don't foresee them taking a guy in round 2. A more realistic scenario I think is Jacobs to Oakland in round 1 and a guy like Henderson to KC in round 3, and Montgomery to Philly in round 2. I think all of those are pretty plausible landing spots and would create a bit of a logjam at the top, but I would still have Jacobs #1 in that scenario personally.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I would still have Jacobs #1 in that scenario as well but I also am not down on the Raiders as a landing spot and have been one to never care much about team success when looking at pass catchers. If I was counting on my RB to actually get a ton of carries and be less impactful in passing game it would carry a lot more weight.
Just for kicks if that scenario unfolded I'd go Jacobs, Henderson and Montgomery, but that's also the order I have them ranked with respect to each other right now so I guess another way of putting it is if the draft went that way it would not have changed my order for those 3. If the draft went that way I'd just be bummed because I made a side bet with Big Tex that Henderson goes top 75 and unless KC was trading up I'd losing my bet.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
How so? By saying multiple times I think he is a good athlete and that his situation could shift where he sits for me? How and why should he even be considered in the realm of where Todd Gurley was before drafts? It’s peak stupidity by the fantasy community and Jeremiah, Bruglar and The Draft Network. They seriously believe college practices at Alabama > collegiate production. Guy had 55 yards on 11 touches against Alabama St. and the Citadel. He’s not a top 5 pick, he’s not a first rounder and he’s a reach in the 2nd or 3rd.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Unless Hunt is in KC. They’ve opened the door back up to him since he’s been so successful in rehabbing himself.
Regardless, I’m with those going against the groupthink grain. I don’t consider Saban to be stupid, he got a chance to watch Jacobs everyday and decided that he couldn’t get him even 10 touches a game - even when there were enough blowout wins and plenty of opportunity to do so in the second half of those games. But you guys could be right of course. The RB3 at ‘Bama could be worthy of a top 5 draft pick. Me, I’ll gladly let someone else run that risk.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I know it's not the Darrell Henderson thread, but he doesn't even come close to talent to Jacobs. But that's probably only the half the puzzle at most, talent. Situation has a big say in that sort of thing, but it won't matter to me as much. If Henderson goes to the best possible landing spot, and Jacobs to an average one, Jacobs is still the clear rookie pick > Henderson to me. There's maybe 3 landing spots that would just kill Jacob's outlook, Giants, Panthers, Rams. None of those are likely to happen but I'm just saying he'll still be considered a better prospect than Henderson regardless.
Najeh Harris was the #1RB in his class and I know he can't come out till next year but not hearing talk of him being a top 5 player just yet.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Doesn’t come close to the talent? How do you judge that? Because one played at Alabama and one played at Memphis?
Edit to add: I have a quoted timed speed of 21 mph for Henderson and a rumored of 22 mph for Jacobs (in practice, as per everything for the guy). I don’t understand calling a guy with back to back seasons of 9.0 ypc inferior to a guy whose coach was so enthralled by him he touched the ball three times against Citadel in a game they were trailing in the first half.
Last edited by a moderator:
Zyphros
Footballguy
My own thoughts on talent obviously, that and everyone's assumption that Jacobs goes in the 1st while Henderson goes 3rd or 4th. Big talent disparity there. Doesn't mean Henderson is bad or that Jacobs is all that good, but talent wise I find it hard to compare them
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I added on to my thoughts, talent is subjective. We probably can’t argue about it until after the combine to get pure athleticism.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
If Jacobs is so good, imagine how good the #1 RB on Alabama is.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I think the fantasy world will go nuts if KC drafts any back in the 4th rd or earlier.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
IMO Oakland is the most likely landing spot. they have luxury picks to be able to afford Jacob's round 1 the most of any team
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
In 20 years of coaching, Reid has never used a first rounder on a RB. With the D help KC needs, he isn’t going to start now for a marginal back like Jacobs. Geez.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Agreed, and I actually kind of like that spot for him. Not much competition there, and the starters there actually put up pretty solid numbers last year without being the receiving threats Jacobs is.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Until last year similar things were said about BB then he drafted Sony. Every year can be different. Maybe he will maybe he won’t no one really knows.
Tex
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Belichick drafted Laurence Maroney in round 1 also. That’s not to say your point on Reid is incorrect - we have no idea what will happen on draft day. Although in such a strong defensive draft with the Chiefs D being so poor and their offense so good I don’t see them going RB either especially with no real standout in this class.
Last edited by a moderator:
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
That narrative is quickly changing. Jacobs being compared to a bigger, stronger Kamar is real and the clear top dog. I’m seeing more and more Jacobs going top 10 or top 5. As draft pundits begin to shape their Mocks I’m also starting to see Monty, Fant, T.J., Brown, and Metcalf go in the first.
Tex
Interseptopus
Footballguy
People need to keep in mind that the assessment of Jacobs as a top prospect comes from scouts who are privy to information and access that none of us are. I really dont think this is just hyping up a random RB. He seemed to come out of nowhere, fast, and theres a reason for that. I'm paying attention.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
And yet those same scouts make as many or more mistakes in evaluating players’ prospects for succeeding in the NFL as a lot of we sadly underinformed schlubs here.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yep. That is why it is important to take in all information, digest it, and make your own conclusion. Any time you depend on someone else you will be disappointed more often than not. Have to think for yourself sometimes, which can be a hard concept for some of our younger people these days. I was just pointing out that many detractors from Jacobs seem to be just pushing aside the possibility of some of these scouts having inside information. Either that or they are digesting it and determining that it's not worth more than their eyes tell them. Which is fine. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions.
Last edited by a moderator:
Gandalf
Footballguy
Also some scouts and organizations are better at identifying talent than others. I generally accept that a scout knows more than me. Can they get it wrong? Of course. But this is their job as opposed to my hobby. I would hope they are better than me at evaluating talent. Also the team might be drafting a player for different reasons. Guy they think fits their scheme or a TE/WR who can block, or a WR who is a kick returner too and gets taken a round or two earlier because of that skill.
Last edited by a moderator:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Watching those highlights a few things stand out to me:
Acceleration: out of cuts and on straight aways. suddenly he's going much faster in a matter of a few yards. Impressive
Toughness: not afraid to take or deliver a hit. He seems to like it.
Versatility: He can do it all
He doesn't stand out as a generational talent or anything like that, but he does everything. Many backs being drafted in the first 2 rounds of redrafts can do everything and aren't generational. Many of the backs in this draft can't do it all.
He would be a great option if he landed in Baltimore. Combine Alex Collins and Buck Allen's production into one player.
Last edited by a moderator:
Gandalf
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
A lot of this, comes down to a player’s desire, dedication, commitment, avoiding drugs/alcohol issues, avoiding injuries, fitting into an offense, and willingness to keep working hard. All of those things which are key to success are hard to predict.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
A bit of speculation on my part but this years draft class seems weaker at RB than the last two were. I don't think too many people would want to argue about that.
Recently I asked ZWK if the RB group this year was weaker than the last two based on a couple metrics. He said it is weaker based on the metrics he tracks but he wasn't sure about the two metrics that I asked about.
In any case Jacons value in the eyes on draft pundits may be exaggerated because there are not any other RB who really stand out either. They need to generate some excitement to attract readers. JJ is their best story to sell.
I think a good way to try to answer a question about quality of draft class is to just rank the players from the last 3 draft classes together and see where JJ lands on such a list.
I would basically have all of my tier one RB prospects from the last two years ranked ahead of JJ right now but he would still make tier one.
Now what if we ranked JJ against the 2014 RB class?
2 54 Bishop Sankey RB 21 2015 0 0 1 6 6 29 0 0 0 0 0 199 762 3 32 272 1 1 Washington College Stats
2 55 CIN Jeremy Hill RB 21 2018 0 0 3 21 21 55 0 0 0 0 0 708 2898 29 68 490 1 5 LSU College Stats
2 57 SFO Carlos Hyde RB 23 2018 0 0 2 22 19 64 0 0 0 0 0 827 3300 26 119 667 3 Ohio St. College Stats
3 69 TAM Charles Sims RB 23 2017 0 0 0 13 13 47 0 0 0 0 0 245 958 2 129 1190 6 1 West Virginia College Stats
3 75 STL Tre Mason RB 21 2015 0 0 1 7 7 25 0 0 0 0 0 254 972 5 34 236 1 1 Auburn College Stats
3 94 CLE Terrance West RB 23 2017 0 0 1 12 4 43 0 0 0 0 0 465 1816 11 51 344 2 1 Towson
3 96 MIN Jerick McKinnon RB 22 2017 0 0 0 21 21 58 0 1 0 0 0 474 1918 7 142 984 5 1 Georgia Southern
4 103 ATL Devonta Freeman RB 22 2018 0 2 3 38 38 63 0 0 0 0 0 767 3316 30 198 1605 7 3 Florida St. College Stats
4 113 NYG Andre Williams RB 22 2017 0 0 0 7 6 41 0 0 0 0 0 332 1090 8 19 137 0 1 Boston Col. College Stats
4 117 CHI Ka'Deem Carey RB 21 2016 0 0 0 3 3 36 0 0 0 0 0 111 443 2 13 131 1 Arizona College Stats
4 124 KAN De'Anthony Thomas RB 21 2018 0 0 0 7 7 55 0 0 0 0 0 29 186 2 64 503 4 4 Oregon College Stats
4 130 NWE James White RB 22 2018 0 0 0 27 27 63 0 0 0 0 0 207 856 7 248 2164 19 Wisconsin College Stats
4 138 BAL Lorenzo Taliaferro RB 22 2016 0 0 0 3 3 19 0 0 0 0 0 82 339 5 16 153 0 3 Coastal Carolina
6 181 HOU Alfred Blue RB 23 2018 0 0 1 18 18 72 0 0 0 0 0 673 2407 8 69 470 2 4 LSU College Stats
6 186 WAS Lache Seastrunk RB 23 2014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Baylor College Stats
I could see ranking JJ the top RB of this group. Maybe the 2019 RB group is more on this level of ability than the RB who have come out the last two seasons.
2015 had Gurley and Gordon who I would have ranked ahead of JJ pretty easily.
