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2019 First Round- Non ppr (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ack88
- Start date
Protocols of Stringer Bell
Footballguy
In non ppr I’d take Melvin Gordon 3 or 4
matttyl
Footballguy
Yeah, obvious omission there. Bell, too, depending on where he lands. We're talking redraft here, right?
jm192
Footballguy
Yahoo and ESPN seem to be defaulting as 0.5 PPR being the new "Standard."
If no PPR:
Gurley
Zeke
CMC
Barkley
Kamara
Gordon
AB
Adams
Hopkins
Conner
Chubb
Notes: PPR vs non-ppr doesn't change it a ton at the top IMO.
Gurley obviousy #1, great offense, great talent, runs well, catches it well
Zeke #2, maybe slides to 3 in PPR, but 3 straight star years. Never averaged less than 95 ypg since coming into the nfl.
Barkley--I just don't know/trust the QB situation. The talent is there. He's done ok with Eli. I just worry they have someone like Rosen next season and we see a David Johnson situation.
Kamara>Gordon because of injury history, Eckler/Jackson exist. I suspect Ingram will move on, but even if he stays, I love Kamara's upside.
AB>Adams. You can easily argue Adams here. I think it's between those 2 for the top WR off the board. Brown's done it for so long and is just so consistent. Adams is younger, doesn't have JJSS for competition. Better QB. It's almost a coin toss.
Chubb: You can argue someone else here for sure. If you extrapolate his numbers since taking over as the starter, he's on pace for 1700 total yards and 14 TD's. He's a good pass catcher. Duke Johnson has had a very reduced role this season. I suspect Chubb's role in the passing game continues to grow, the offense continues to improve.
If no PPR:
Gurley
Zeke
CMC
Barkley
Kamara
Gordon
AB
Adams
Hopkins
Conner
Chubb
Notes: PPR vs non-ppr doesn't change it a ton at the top IMO.
Gurley obviousy #1, great offense, great talent, runs well, catches it well
Zeke #2, maybe slides to 3 in PPR, but 3 straight star years. Never averaged less than 95 ypg since coming into the nfl.
Barkley--I just don't know/trust the QB situation. The talent is there. He's done ok with Eli. I just worry they have someone like Rosen next season and we see a David Johnson situation.
Kamara>Gordon because of injury history, Eckler/Jackson exist. I suspect Ingram will move on, but even if he stays, I love Kamara's upside.
AB>Adams. You can easily argue Adams here. I think it's between those 2 for the top WR off the board. Brown's done it for so long and is just so consistent. Adams is younger, doesn't have JJSS for competition. Better QB. It's almost a coin toss.
Chubb: You can argue someone else here for sure. If you extrapolate his numbers since taking over as the starter, he's on pace for 1700 total yards and 14 TD's. He's a good pass catcher. Duke Johnson has had a very reduced role this season. I suspect Chubb's role in the passing game continues to grow, the offense continues to improve.
rockaction
Footballguy
If no PPR:
1. Barkley
2. Gurley
3. Zeke
4. CMC
5. Bell
6. Kamara
7. Gordon
8. D Johnson
9. T Hill
10. AB
11. D Hopkins
12. JuJu
Note: This is how I would draft it, not how I expect it to go. I think Gurley is incredible, but that Barkley is generational. I slid JuJu in there because there's enough volume, and quite simply, he's ready.
1. Barkley
2. Gurley
3. Zeke
4. CMC
5. Bell
6. Kamara
7. Gordon
8. D Johnson
9. T Hill
10. AB
11. D Hopkins
12. JuJu
Note: This is how I would draft it, not how I expect it to go. I think Gurley is incredible, but that Barkley is generational. I slid JuJu in there because there's enough volume, and quite simply, he's ready.
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jm192
Footballguy
I just don't see how anyone trusts David Johnson as their 1st round pick. The Cardinals offense has been very bad. Honestly, Johnson is a guy that PPR would elevate moreso for me. You're going to be able to get him late 2nd or 3rd IMHO.
Julio's been on a touchdown tear, but he's had double digit Touchdowns once in his career. Adams just had his 3rd straight Double digit TD season. Adams finally put it all together and is 26 years old. He had 150 less yards, but 6 more TD's.
Hill--I get the argument for him over Adams, and I won't tell that you're wrong. But to me, Adams is more reliable/Consistent. Adams had 100 yards or a TD in all but one game. Hill missed the mark 8 times. He gets his points in huge clumps. I worry that Hill is doing a lot of his damage by blowing the tops off of defenses, and they'll adjust for that next season.
rockaction
Footballguy
As for DJ, I think scarcity at running back and his first year are going entice people to think that Rosen will improve, the line will improve, etc.
I get the argument you make about Hill, though. But if they play off the line of scrimmage he's just going to catch a quick hitter and he's become a good enough route runner to combat that. They're already rolling safeties over on him. What more can they do?
I can't argue with the DJ thinking.jm192 said:
Still, this year has likely been his floor and he currently ranks 9th among RBs in my league's format. By the end of the year, He'll likely pass Kareem Hunt in move into 8th. I think Wilks gets fired and the new coach uses DJ properly. Rosen is much better than he has shown thus far; the supporting cast is weak and I think AZ is a much better team next year. Nonetheless, you do make good points on DJ.
Adams v. Hill makes a great discussion. As things stand in my league's scoring format- Hill is the #1 overall WR. I simply can't rank Adams over him- but completely agree that Adams' consistency makes him an alluring round 1 target.
FWIW- in examining those players with potential first round status, perhaps next year might be a better year to pick in the middle of round 1 than at the top? I don't know if this is true or not, as I haven't dug in deeply, but given the quality of the top players mentioned in this thread, and the overall closeness of how we perceive them, maybe getting one of the consensus top 7 Rb followed by an elite Wr is the ideal start.
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rockaction
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Right now, I’m just hoping to NOT be in the bottom 3. But I’m sure next summer I will mock a late pick and love the value of a top WR plus an RB like Bell or DJ who might fall to me.
Alright, I've expanded to a Top 24 to flesh out the best slots for 2019:
1. Gurley
2. Zeke
3. Saquon
4. CMC
5. Kamara
6. M. Gordon
7. A. Brown
8. D. Hopkins
9. J. Jones
10. D. Johnson
11. J. Connor
12. T. Hill
13. D. Adams
14. N Chubb
15. Kelce
16. J. Mixon
17. M. Thomas
18. M. Evans
19. K. Allen
20. D. Henry
21. P. Lindsay
22. Ju Ju
23. A. Theilen
24. TY Hilton
I would have zero reservations about any of the top 6 RBs- none at all. This, in theory, would enable me to begin with a low risk, high performance first round pick knowing I could come back with an Allen, Evans, Thomas type.
I think I like this better than an AB, Hopkins or Julio and a Henry, Lindsay, or Mixon.
Originally, I thought a middle first might be best. Now I'm going to hedge; would rather have any pick in the top 6. Assume re-draft, partial keeper, non-ppr.
Thoughts?
rockaction
Footballguy
Looking at that list, I think your hedging is correct. I wouldn't worry about anything but drafting late in the round and even then you're going to get somebody good on the turn. It's talent-rich.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
I still think Mahomes is going to find his way into the top 24 more often than not, despite the overabundance of potential QB1s
mozzy84
Footballguy
Mt. Man
Footballguy
In a way, way-too-early, "I'll laugh at what I thought at NYE in August" sense? Eh, why not?
1. Gurley.
2. Barkley. 3. Zeke. 4. Kamara 5. CMC
I think Gurley's still a half step above the crowd. If you put the next four in any order at this point, I couldn't argue too hard against it. I'm just very intrigued by Barkley (even if the rest of the offense doesn't improve), and Dallas will have a more stable passing game, almost by default. I can't decide if Ingram leaving NO (assuming it happens) would raise or lower Kamara.
6. Gordon. 7. Adams 8. Hopkins 9. Conner
Honestly, Conner might deserve 7 or even 6, but I think there will be just enough "is he for real?" attitude on him that he slides... a few positions. For no PPR, Adams & Hopkins represent the only WRs I'm sure will be consistently drafted in the 1st. I think 3-4 WRs will be the average, but at the same time there are 3 or 4 candidates for that.
10. Bell. 11. Hill
Bell's spot is based on him landing in at least a good spot. If it's a great spot, then he probably rises to #6 (or higher?). Hill definitely had his breakout year, and (thanks partially to Adams & Brown sitting) even finished #1 in no PPR.
On the turn: Chubb, Mixon, DJ, Brown, Julio
Sign me up for #12 already! I think Chubb deserves #12 (if not higher) more, but I owned Mixon in 2 leagues, and would find it hard to pass on him if I ended with a pick near the turn. David Johnson might rise depending on the coach, though you start to run out of room. I'm wondering if Brown/Juju isn't (at least for one more year) similar to Wayne/Harrison where you can't go too wrong with either, but one will drafted later. In no PPR, it's safe to say that Julio will end up in the 2nd based partially on reputation, but it's not like he should sink THAT low.
Also in the 2nd (ordered by position, not spot): Carson, Lindsay, Juju, Beckham, Thielen, M. Thomas, Kelce, Mahomes.
Evans and Allen deserve heavy consideration. RB, for the moment, drops hard. If KC has settled on a RB (Ware?), he probably lands here too. Any faith in Fournette or Peterson? Are Michel and White both intriguing, or do they cancel each other out? What to do with someone like Derrick Henry who might deserve 1st round talk for ~7 games and no sooner than the 6th for how he did the rest of the season?
1. Gurley.
2. Barkley. 3. Zeke. 4. Kamara 5. CMC
I think Gurley's still a half step above the crowd. If you put the next four in any order at this point, I couldn't argue too hard against it. I'm just very intrigued by Barkley (even if the rest of the offense doesn't improve), and Dallas will have a more stable passing game, almost by default. I can't decide if Ingram leaving NO (assuming it happens) would raise or lower Kamara.
6. Gordon. 7. Adams 8. Hopkins 9. Conner
Honestly, Conner might deserve 7 or even 6, but I think there will be just enough "is he for real?" attitude on him that he slides... a few positions. For no PPR, Adams & Hopkins represent the only WRs I'm sure will be consistently drafted in the 1st. I think 3-4 WRs will be the average, but at the same time there are 3 or 4 candidates for that.
10. Bell. 11. Hill
Bell's spot is based on him landing in at least a good spot. If it's a great spot, then he probably rises to #6 (or higher?). Hill definitely had his breakout year, and (thanks partially to Adams & Brown sitting) even finished #1 in no PPR.
On the turn: Chubb, Mixon, DJ, Brown, Julio
Sign me up for #12 already! I think Chubb deserves #12 (if not higher) more, but I owned Mixon in 2 leagues, and would find it hard to pass on him if I ended with a pick near the turn. David Johnson might rise depending on the coach, though you start to run out of room. I'm wondering if Brown/Juju isn't (at least for one more year) similar to Wayne/Harrison where you can't go too wrong with either, but one will drafted later. In no PPR, it's safe to say that Julio will end up in the 2nd based partially on reputation, but it's not like he should sink THAT low.
Also in the 2nd (ordered by position, not spot): Carson, Lindsay, Juju, Beckham, Thielen, M. Thomas, Kelce, Mahomes.
Evans and Allen deserve heavy consideration. RB, for the moment, drops hard. If KC has settled on a RB (Ware?), he probably lands here too. Any faith in Fournette or Peterson? Are Michel and White both intriguing, or do they cancel each other out? What to do with someone like Derrick Henry who might deserve 1st round talk for ~7 games and no sooner than the 6th for how he did the rest of the season?
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Anyone worried about Conners workhorse role next year? Not saying he won’t be the starter but I think Samuels has shown enough to earn a role moving forward. And if Samuels does secure a pass catching role it could put enough of a dent in conners value to take him out of the top 12 rbs
I am not. Connor has a three down skill set and the Steelers have shown a propensity to utilize a bell cow back. Sure, Samuels will get a few touches, but only to give Connor a rest. Connor, in my estimation, looks to be a solid pick in the back end of round 1.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
He was RB7 in my non-ppr leagues. Do you think something might change in terms of his usage next year that would drop him out of the top 10? if it's non-ppr, I'm probably not putting any WR above him, personally.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Never predict future stats by past stats. I predict Newton could revert back to more vulture TDs next year and in general Carolina likes RBBC. So don't be surprised if they bring in a very capable running mate....just sayin'
joey
Footballguy
fair enough. You saying CMC is not in your Top 10 is you predicting some kind of stats, right?
In non-ppr, I'm digging any of those top 9 RBs I listed in my post over the top WRs. Over the past few years of mocking, I generally like the RB/WR combos I get in the first 2 rounds more than a WR/RB combo I might get. So I probably tend to put more RBs in my 1st round rankings than some knowing that I'd be fine grabbing any of a group of Rd2 WRs.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
CMC is always going to be great in PPR, but I don't think it's a given in non-PPR and carries some risk with Newton vulturing TDs and their perceived desire for RBBC. Maybe they won't do the latter, but I think we can always count on Newton stealing the thunder inside the 10.fair enough. You saying CMC is not in your Top 10 is you predicting some kind of stats, right?
In non-ppr, I'm digging any of those top 9 RBs I listed in my post over the top WRs. Over the past few years of mocking, I generally like the RB/WR combos I get in the first 2 rounds more than a WR/RB combo I might get. So I probably tend to put more RBs in my 1st round rankings than some knowing that I'd be fine grabbing any of a group of Rd2 WRs.
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Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
I'm curious as to how all of this circus in Pittsburgh plays out and whether Brown forces his way out of town. If he does that definitely seems to elevate JuJu even more although he'll see more pressure. Part of me thinks all of this business keeps them spiraling into a dumpster fire of malcontents and I might be wise to stay far back in case it implodes. Too much talent to stay too far away though.
If Ingram leaves town it definitely bumps Kamara up as his production was off the charts at the beginning of the season before Ingram was back and was much less consistent afterwards. If he leaves town Kamara moves up to top tier with Gurley, Zeke, and Saquon.
If Brown leaves town it will really take a good landing spot to keep him as my #1 WR. Too many people nipping at his heels and he's gone cuckoo this year.
Lot's of potential sleepers next year in the 2nd/3rd/4th that could return first round value. If Cooks can start the year healthy, Johnson in Detroit played well when given opportunity, Drake in Miami should have been getting carries instead of 90 year old Frank Gore, LeVeon pops up somewhere, Guice will likely be so-so at the beginning of year but could get going once he rounds into shape and is fully confident on the knee, Ajayi could be back in Philly, KC RB situation looks good whomever comes through and that's just some of the RB's.
If Ingram leaves town it definitely bumps Kamara up as his production was off the charts at the beginning of the season before Ingram was back and was much less consistent afterwards. If he leaves town Kamara moves up to top tier with Gurley, Zeke, and Saquon.
If Brown leaves town it will really take a good landing spot to keep him as my #1 WR. Too many people nipping at his heels and he's gone cuckoo this year.
Lot's of potential sleepers next year in the 2nd/3rd/4th that could return first round value. If Cooks can start the year healthy, Johnson in Detroit played well when given opportunity, Drake in Miami should have been getting carries instead of 90 year old Frank Gore, LeVeon pops up somewhere, Guice will likely be so-so at the beginning of year but could get going once he rounds into shape and is fully confident on the knee, Ajayi could be back in Philly, KC RB situation looks good whomever comes through and that's just some of the RB's.
I think this post makes a lot of sense. There is much variance that could ensue between now and the start of next season. I think between 18-20 of the players in my top 24 are safe in that they will go in the first two rounds, but perhaps in a slightly different order. Bell could get into this group, as could OBJ. AB might drop out of round 1 given all the histrionics going on right now, but I think he ends up back in Pittsburgh.
