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Deamon

Which of the three 2.5 point spread games is the safest bet?

Which of the three 2.5 point spread games is the safest bet?  

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Crazy WC weekend with a combined 13 point line between the 4 games.  In a survivor pool and can only pick one team to win each round.  Don't want to pick the Bears as that will be the obvious pick for most of the league, so in the odd chance of an Eagles win, I want to have a leg up.  Which is the safest bet of the other 3 games?

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I’m not sure there is a “safe”bet but went with the Cowboys at home. Seattle just didn’t impress me much this season and I think Dallas has something to prove.

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I’m not sure BAL would do well playing from behind and I think LA has enough game to make that happen.  If it weren’t that the Chargers are traveling across the time zones and playing back east, I’d almost call it a lock.  But that really seems to affect the west coast teams significantly.  Still, I like LA the best of the possible propositions.

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1 minute ago, The General said:

Texans over Colts.

I voted Colts over Texans.

I guess there’s a reason these spreads are so tight.

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

I voted Colts over Texans.

I guess there’s a reason these spreads are so tight.

I think Deshaun / Hopkins at home will be too much for the Colts.  

All these games are so close though, nothing will surprise me. Going to be a great weekend.

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1 minute ago, The General said:

I think Deshaun / Hopkins at home will be too much for the Colts.  

All these games are so close though, nothing will surprise me. Going to be a great weekend.

I’m thinking Luck is really coming on and could see him having a great game. Should be a good one.

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1. Google Wong Teaser

2. Pick the +2.5 dog you like the most, and tease it, crossing key #'s 3 and 7

3. Feel a little better about your odds to cover

ETA: didn't read your post, just the title of your thread. Although a hijack, it's still solid gambling advice. Happy New Year!

Edited by nittanylion

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41 minutes ago, nittanylion said:

Google Wong Teaser

Now I'm getting ads popping up for rub and tug joints

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

I’m not sure BAL would do well playing from behind and I think LA has enough game to make that happen.  If it weren’t that the Chargers are traveling across the time zones and playing back east, I’d almost call it a lock.  But that really seems to affect the west coast teams significantly.  Still, I like LA the best of the possible propositions.

Those west to east trends are hard to buck, but sdc has an excellent recent record on the road. I would go with that, but push my odds up by betting the moneyline (+120) if possible.

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17 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Those west to east trends are hard to buck, but sdc has an excellent recent record on the road. I would go with that, but push my odds up by betting the moneyline (+120) if possible.

 

Yeah, I agree that if you like the dog in these kinds of games that the moneyline is the right play.  Get the 20% reward for giving up those couple of points.

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Maybe I am putting too much stock in what I saw week 16 but Balt just handled LA in LA and now LA has to fly east across country for an early game. Gimme the Ravens -2.5 in another ugly game where the Bolts just can’t get enough going on O.

ETA: well I obviously didn’t read that one right :doh:

:thumbup: to those folks who called the upset

Edited by whiskey7

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Very strong feeling Chargers

Strong feeling Seahawks

Good feeling Colts

Staying away Bears/Eagles

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As far as bears game goes, I like the under 41. Bears defense is legit but I don't see the defending champs getting blown out either.

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The Ravens offense under Lamar is a handful if you haven't seen it before. The second time? I have my doubts. And Rivers isnt going to come up small again. I'll take San Diego. 

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1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

The Ravens offense under Lamar is a handful if you haven't seen it before. The second time? I have my doubts. And Rivers isnt going to come up small again. I'll take San Diego. 

Was just about to post this when I saw your comment. It was tough to tell from watching the Redzone but it seemed the Browns did a better job in the second half of the game. 

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On 12/31/2018 at 2:42 PM, The General said:

Texans over Colts.

I'm almost definitely wrong, but out of the teams playing this weekend I'd bet on Houston to make it the furthest.  I could see them beating the Patriots, maybe even the Chiefs if things go right.

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6 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

The Ravens offense under Lamar is a handful if you haven't seen it before. The second time? I have my doubts. And Rivers isnt going to come up small again. I'll take San Diego. 

Will be interesting to see how the Chargers handle the Ravens pass rush and lamar the 2nd time around.  Phil has to protect the ball.

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1 minute ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

The safest bet of these 3 games is to take the Seahawks and the points 

Definitely the Boys. At home, Seattle is banged up.

Lock city honesty.

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3 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

The safest bet of these 3 games is to take the Seahawks and the points 

It's a straight up pickem, not vs the spread.  Don't really want to pick an upset here.

Couple of the lines have moved now.  Dallas is -1.5 and Houston -1.5.  Ravens now have the biggest spread of these 3 games.

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1 minute ago, The General said:

Definitely the Boys. At home, Seattle is banged up.

Lock city honesty.

Both of you attempting the reverse jinx.  Nice.

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2 minutes ago, Deamon said:

It's a straight up pickem, not vs the spread.  Don't really want to pick an upset here.

Couple of the lines have moved now.  Dallas is -1.5 and Houston -1.5.  Ravens now have the biggest spread of these 3 games.

Dog money on all 4 games moving from the opening spread.

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I got Colts over Texans, but a close second for me, is Chargers over Ravens.

 

The Colts are arguably playing as good as anyone in the league, and Luck looks really good.  Their defense puts em over the top, imo.

 

The Chargers have a complete team, and I'll take Old man Rivers over Lamar in the playoffs.....the Ravens D is very good, but the Chargers play away games every week pretty much and they have the better roster, overall.

 

I want to pick my Cowboys, but they need to prove it to me.......I just don't trust Dak at this point.

 

I also like Da Bears, but that Philly defensive front could cause a lot of problems for Trubisky.

Edited by Manster

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49 minutes ago, Manster said:

I got Colts over Texans, but a close second for me, is Chargers over Ravens.

 

The Colts are arguably playing as good as anyone in the league, and Luck looks really good.  Their defense puts em over the top, imo.

 

The Chargers have a complete team, and I'll take Old man Rivers over Lamar in the playoffs.....the Ravens D is very good, but the Chargers play away games every week pretty much and they have the better roster, overall.

 

I want to pick my Cowboys, but they need to prove it to me.......I just don't trust Dak at this point.

 

I also like Da Bears, but that Philly defensive front could cause a lot of problems for Trubisky.

I just can't remember a year where so many people are against the Vegas favorite.  Most people seem to think the Seahawks, Colts, and Chargers should all be favored.  Going to be a very good weekend of football.

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I like Houston to win and then beat the Patriots. But the matchup with Indy is the biggest coinflip of the weekend IMO. 

Bears are my lock of the week, followed by Baltimore at home and Dallas at home. Home teams all around. I don't see the Chargers doing much on the East Coast to score points. And Tucker and Jackson could run and kick their way to enough pts for victory. Dallas and Seattle also a coin flip but edge to Dallas.

Bears will smash. I didn't catch the line there but I'd take them to cover. 

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20 hours ago, whiskey7 said:

Maybe I am putting too much stock in what I saw week 16 but Balt just handled LA in LA and now LA has to fly east across country for an early game. Gimme the Ravens -2.5 in another ugly game where the Bolts just can’t get enough going on O.

I was thinking the same. 

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I think this is probably the time to not go contrarian, and just pick the Bears.

Look for the chance to thin the field in later weeks.  I don’t like hanging my survivor pool on something this dicey in the opening week.  Between the lines being close, and all 6 teams having cogent arguments in favor of victory being presented here, it’s a bad time to be risky.

If for some reason I had to pick one of these though I’d probably pick the Ravens.  Can’t forget their thorough defensive domination of LA just a couple weeks back.  Although the point about facing Lamar being easier a second time around gives pause...that was solid thinking.

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7 hours ago, Manster said:

 

The Colts are arguably playing as good as anyone in the league, and Luck looks really good.  Their defense puts em over the top, imo.

 

Maybe. Honestly I thought they should have put the Titans away easier than they did. Titans defense is pretty good and luck and Mack still had good games but they seemed to struggle at times. 

Houston is on par defensively with Tennessee, and it goes without saying that Gabbert and Watson are worlds apart. They did split in season and nuk almost disappeared in their second game (I don't remember, was he injured?) 

Reich has done a great job, he has the right qb to win, but I don't know that they can stop Watson and nuk again. 

I do think the AFC games will be the most fun. 

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1 hour ago, -OZ- said:

Maybe. Honestly I thought they should have put the Titans away easier than they did. Titans defense is pretty good and luck and Mack still had good games but they seemed to struggle at times. 

Houston is on par defensively with Tennessee, and it goes without saying that Gabbert and Watson are worlds apart. They did split in season and nuk almost disappeared in their second game (I don't remember, was he injured?) 

Reich has done a great job, he has the right qb to win, but I don't know that they can stop Watson and nuk again. 

I do think the AFC games will be the most fun. 

Feels like Colts/Texans will be a great game.....and to be fair, no one can stop Nuk.....he's a freak

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On 1/1/2019 at 12:48 PM, MAC_32 said:

The Ravens offense under Lamar is a handful if you haven't seen it before. The second time? I have my doubts. And Rivers isnt going to come up small again. I'll take San Diego. 

This. I can’t figure out why defenses don’t just blitz 8 guys every single snap as Lamar might be the worst passer since Tebow. Hell, he’s worse. 

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8 minutes ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

This. I can’t figure out why defenses don’t just blitz 8 guys every single snap as Lamar might be the worst passer since Tebow. Hell, he’s worse. 

Tebow's career completion percentage was 47.9.
Jackson's is 58.2. 

Tebow's career QB Rating was 75.3
Jackson's is 84.5. 

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2 minutes ago, The_Man said:

Tebow's career completion percentage was 47.9.
Jackson's is 58.2. 

Tebow's career QB Rating was 75.3
Jackson's is 84.5. 

Yeah, they both suck. 

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11 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Bears -6 all day

Agreed if it's a survivor thing don't overthink it and go Bears.  You'll still have a ton of good options next week. All of those other games are coin flips IMO.

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Wild Card teams with a Sagarin SOS 10 points more difficult win something like 83% of the time 

Colts (32) Texans (29)

Chargers (24) Ravens (19)

Cowboys (11) Seahawks (25)

Eagles (15) Bears (31)

🤷‍♂️

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I love how everyone is saying the Bears are a lock.  They played the second softest schedule in football.

Makes me want to bet the Eagles even more.

Edited by tjnc09

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8 hours ago, Arodin said:

I think this is probably the time to not go contrarian, and just pick the Bears.

Look for the chance to thin the field in later weeks.  I don’t like hanging my survivor pool on something this dicey in the opening week.  Between the lines being close, and all 6 teams having cogent arguments in favor of victory being presented here, it’s a bad time to be risky.

If for some reason I had to pick one of these though I’d probably pick the Ravens.  Can’t forget their thorough defensive domination of LA just a couple weeks back.  Although the point about facing Lamar being easier a second time around gives pause...that was solid thinking.

This is simply not good advice.  You never want to pick the public play in a survivor type pool.  It's football, anything can happen (look at Bills/Vikings early in the season).  Trubisky gets hurt, a couple of fumbles, Parkey shanks a few kicks, whatever.

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1 hour ago, tjnc09 said:

I love how everyone is saying the Bears are a lock.  They played the second softest schedule in football.

Makes me want to bet the Eagles even more.

But you just posted stats above this post I quoted that suggest the bears have >80% to win. 

 

I had to google Sargarin score. I assume SOS is strength of schedule? Where do you see the Cowboys and Eagles at 11 and 15 respectively? I see them about 10 points higher.

 

Im asking cause you’re scaring me as it pertains to my Cowboys. 

Edited by STEADYMOBBIN 22

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