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Deamon

Which of the three 2.5 point spread games is the safest bet?

Which of the three 2.5 point spread games is the safest bet?  

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8 minutes ago, STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:

But you just posted stats above this post I quoted that suggest the bears have >80% to win. 

 

I had to google Sargarin score. I assume SOS is strength of schedule? Where do you see the Cowboys and Eagles at 11 and 15 respectively? I see them about 10 points higher.

 

Im asking cause you’re scaring me as it pertains to my Cowboys. 

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

SCHEDL(RANK)

Cowboys played the 11th hardest schedule, Seahawks 25th

Eagles played the 15th hardest schedule, Bears 31st

10 points higher = 10 points harder.  So, the system suggests the Cowboys and Eagles win (and cover the spread) way more often than not.    

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Systems aren't failproof, but it's certainly interesting to think about.  People get perceptions of teams without considering how good/bad of teams they played.  

Edited by tjnc09
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I'm about as pessimistic Cowboys fan as you will find, but I think they win and cover this weekend. 

I also like the Texans over the Colts.

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3 hours ago, tjnc09 said:

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

SCHEDL(RANK)

Cowboys played the 11th hardest schedule, Seahawks 25th

Eagles played the 15th hardest schedule, Bears 31st

10 points higher = 10 points harder.  So, the system suggests the Cowboys and Eagles win (and cover the spread) way more often than not.    

odd the seahawks schedule would be perceived weak, they played the Rams X2 and KC and Bolts had 12 wins each, I guess SF & Arz will drag you down.

 

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I would agree with the people saying this isn't the week to screw around, and just take the Bears, but if I had to pick a different game, I'd go with the Colts. Luck/Hilton have always owned them, whenever they are both playing, and they are going in different directions. Indy is peaking right now, Houston peaked weeks ago, then lost Demaryius, who while obviously no longer a top flight WR, was still a threat defenses had to account for.

Indy beat Houston in this building a few weeks back, and almost beat them early in the year, when Luck was playing much worse, and the Texans had Will Fuller, who drew a lot of coverage in that game, and still had a TD. 

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As a Houston fan, I’d regrettably choose the Colts. Indy has had the Texans’ number for years. Yes the Texans have overall gotten better since Watson, but here might be some surprising numbers for most:

Overall record vs Indy: 8-26

At-home vs Indy: 5-12

At-home vs Indy since 2017 (Watson era): 0-2

Not pretty and I really hope I’m wrong.

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9 hours ago, Pipes said:

Agreed if it's a survivor thing don't overthink it and go Bears.  You'll still have a ton of good options next week. All of those other games are coin flips IMO.

 

16 hours ago, Arodin said:

I think this is probably the time to not go contrarian, and just pick the Bears.

Look for the chance to thin the field in later weeks.  I don’t like hanging my survivor pool on something this dicey in the opening week.  Between the lines being close, and all 6 teams having cogent arguments in favor of victory being presented here, it’s a bad time to be risky.

If for some reason I had to pick one of these though I’d probably pick the Ravens.  Can’t forget their thorough defensive domination of LA just a couple weeks back.  Although the point about facing Lamar being easier a second time around gives pause...that was solid thinking.

I'm usually with you.  Don't "save teams", play each week to win the week in a survivor pool and don't worry about other people in the pool.

A little background on this pool though.  There will be about 50 people.  Winner take all.  I'm assuming about 48 of them will take the Bears.  It's going to be a LONG SHOT to win this contest outright (or it'll come down to a tie breaker) if I pick the Bears and they win and we all go through. 

I also won the regular season pickem pool with these guys, so I'm playing with house money for my entry fee into this.  Am even considering taking the Eagles.  I'm obviously the least confident in that game, but if they were to somehow win, I'd pretty much win this contest.

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On 12/31/2018 at 12:51 PM, kutta said:

I’m thinking Luck is really coming on and could see him having a great game. Should be a good one.

My initial feeling for Texans has been blown up the more I see and read...Everyone is loving the Colts.

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57 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

In these close matchups, the idiot kickers are more important than ever.  Which kicker do you trust the most?  Give me Tucker and the Ravens, please.

As much credit as Tucker does get,  he is still underrated.

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On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 5:51 AM, Arodin said:

I think this is probably the time to not go contrarian, and just pick the Bears.

Look for the chance to thin the field in later weeks.  I don’t like hanging my survivor pool on something this dicey in the opening week.  Between the lines being close, and all 6 teams having cogent arguments in favor of victory being presented here, it’s a bad time to be risky.

If for some reason I had to pick one of these though I’d probably pick the Ravens.  Can’t forget their thorough defensive domination of LA just a couple weeks back.  Although the point about facing Lamar being easier a second time around gives pause...that was solid thinking.

 

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 11:52 AM, trader jake said:

Just pick the Bears.

 

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 12:36 PM, Pipes said:

Agreed if it's a survivor thing don't overthink it and go Bears.  You'll still have a ton of good options next week. All of those other games are coin flips IMO.

:lmao: you guys are welcome to donate to my Survivor Pools any time you would like.

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On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 2:20 PM, tjnc09 said:

Wild Card teams with a Sagarin SOS 10 points more difficult win something like 83% of the time 

Colts (32) Texans (29)

Chargers (24) Ravens (19)

Cowboys (11) Seahawks (25)

Eagles (15) Bears (31)

🤷‍♂️

 

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 2:22 PM, tjnc09 said:

I love how everyone is saying the Bears are a lock.  They played the second softest schedule in football.

Makes me want to bet the Eagles even more.

 

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 2:32 PM, tjnc09 said:

This is simply not good advice.  You never want to pick the public play in a survivor type pool.  It's football, anything can happen (look at Bills/Vikings early in the season).  Trubisky gets hurt, a couple of fumbles, Parkey shanks a few kicks, whatever.

.

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On 1/5/2019 at 1:21 PM, ComfortablyNumb said:

In these close matchups, the idiot kickers are more important than ever.  Which kicker do you trust the most?  Give me Tucker and the Ravens, please.

:)

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I ended up as the ONLY one out of 85 people to pick the Eagles.  Only 15 people left in the pool now, so I got lucky and it paid off.

Who next?  Thinking Rams or Patriots.

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7 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I ended up as the ONLY one out of 85 people to pick the Eagles.  Only 15 people left in the pool now, so I got lucky and it paid off.

Who next?  Thinking Rams or Patriots.

Saints for me. Think Chargers can upset Pats personally

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2 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

Saints for me. Think Chargers can upset Pats personally

To win this you pretty much have to pick a winner each of the 4 playoff weeks.  If I use the Saints now, I can't use them in the NFCC or SB.

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38 minutes ago, Deamon said:

To win this you pretty much have to pick a winner each of the 4 playoff weeks.  If I use the Saints now, I can't use them in the NFCC or SB.

oh, of course... I would concur on Rams

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