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downsouth

RB Keeper?

Question

1/2 pt PPR, Keep 2, draft position depends on points scored by RB kept.

Lower points = higher draft position

which 2?

Bell, Guice, Henry, Chubb

keeping Bell and guice mean higher draft spot, but Chubb and Henry have been fun to watch.

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Bell depends a lot  on his landing spot but as of now I would choose Guice and Bell, and if it looks like Bell will be on a bad team with a bad QB then Guice and Chubb..

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I would rank them as the following:

 

  1. Chubb - he will be the cornerstone of an improving team with a solid QB.  He will get the ball 15-20 times per game with good TD upside.  He is easily my #1 choice of these four today.
  2. Bell - this is all contingent upon his landing spot.  He could go up or down drastically based on his decision.
  3. Henry - This is contingent upon the off season and what happens in Tennessee.  They started using him as a workhorse and the team starting winning.  He should have been used like this all year.  If the team looks like Lewis is going to stay heavily involved and they want to go time share again then he moves down quickly.
  4. Guice - Coming off a major knee injury that has had significant complications is a huge red flag and one that I wouldn't necessarily risk if I had better options.  I see better options for you so he would be far down my list as a keeper. 

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2 hours ago, Gally said:

I would rank them as the following:

 

  1. Chubb - he will be the cornerstone of an improving team with a solid QB.  He will get the ball 15-20 times per game with good TD upside.  He is easily my #1 choice of these four today.
  2. Bell - this is all contingent upon his landing spot.  He could go up or down drastically based on his decision.
  3. Henry - This is contingent upon the off season and what happens in Tennessee.  They started using him as a workhorse and the team starting winning.  He should have been used like this all year.  If the team looks like Lewis is going to stay heavily involved and they want to go time share again then he moves down quickly.
  4. Guice - Coming off a major knee injury that has had significant complications is a huge red flag and one that I wouldn't necessarily risk if I had better options.  I see better options for you so he would be far down my list as a keeper. 

RE: Guice, I had emailed Dr. Bramel regarding his injury/infection. He basically said he thought he would be fine by the time training camp rolls around.

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2 hours ago, Gally said:

I would rank them as the following:

 

  1. Chubb - he will be the cornerstone of an improving team with a solid QB.  He will get the ball 15-20 times per game with good TD upside.  He is easily my #1 choice of these four today.
  2. Bell - this is all contingent upon his landing spot.  He could go up or down drastically based on his decision.
  3. Henry - This is contingent upon the off season and what happens in Tennessee.  They started using him as a workhorse and the team starting winning.  He should have been used like this all year.  If the team looks like Lewis is going to stay heavily involved and they want to go time share again then he moves down quickly.
  4. Guice - Coming off a major knee injury that has had significant complications is a huge red flag and one that I wouldn't necessarily risk if I had better options.  I see better options for you so he would be far down my list as a keeper. 

In our keeper league, players are returned after 3 years. So players like Gurley and Julio end up back in the draft along with rookies. Definite value in higher draft slots.

Agree with the Chubb assessment. I like him going forward.

Agree on the Bell situation.

Henry was so disappointing for 3/4 of the year but won me games in his own towards the end.

Guice is the one that scares me because of his injury. 

I can always move 2 of these for draft picks. 

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6 minutes ago, beerbuff said:

RE: Guice, I had emailed Dr. Bramel regarding his injury/infection. He basically said he thought he would be fine by the time training camp rolls around.

Understood.....he SHOULD be fine by the time training camp rolls around.  I get scared anytime a skill player like that has a major knee injury (especially with complications).  Dr Bramel is a great resource and someone to trust but he hasn't examined Guice and is just speculating.  Given the choices here this red flag really drops Guice to the bottom for me.

 

If the OP can trade him for a pick that would be my suggestion.

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

Understood.....he SHOULD be fine by the time training camp rolls around.  I get scared anytime a skill player like that has a major knee injury (especially with complications).  Dr Bramel is a great resource and someone to trust but he hasn't examined Guice and is just speculating.  Given the choices here this red flag really drops Guice to the bottom for me.

 

If the OP can trade him for a pick that would be my suggestion.

Given that he can keep Guice for 3 years I wouldn't trade him for a pick. I really think he has a chance to be a easy RB1 this year given how well AP did. He could be pure gold for a couple of years.

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2 hours ago, beerbuff said:

Given that he can keep Guice for 3 years I wouldn't trade him for a pick. I really think he has a chance to be a easy RB1 this year given how well AP did. He could be pure gold for a couple of years.

or he never makes it quite back from a major knee injury and is JAG.  That is the risk.  If you are ok with that risk go for it.  I am not with the other choices he has.  The OP never stated how many years of keeping he has left with each choice.  It could be three for all choices then Guice is the same for that value as the other choices.  I also wasn't sure what was meant by "draft position depends on points scored by RB kept.  Lower points = higher draft position".  I am not sure how that specifically affects these choices and that might be a bigger deal than I am giving it credit for. 

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On 1/2/2019 at 4:21 PM, Gally said:

or he never makes it quite back from a major knee injury and is JAG.  That is the risk.  If you are ok with that risk go for it.  I am not with the other choices he has.  The OP never stated how many years of keeping he has left with each choice.  It could be three for all choices then Guice is the same for that value as the other choices.  I also wasn't sure what was meant by "draft position depends on points scored by RB kept.  Lower points = higher draft position".  I am not sure how that specifically affects these choices and that might be a bigger deal than I am giving it credit for. 

The combined points of all of our keepers is what determines draft position. If you keep all players with low points scored, you can land a higher draft spot. 

Guice and Chubb have 3 years left of being keepable. They were drafted this year.

Bell and Henry have 2 left. Both were drafted last year.

how many years left does matter some but RB value can change quickly. 

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14 hours ago, downsouth said:

The combined points of all of our keepers is what determines draft position. If you keep all players with low points scored, you can land a higher draft spot. 

Guice and Chubb have 3 years left of being keepable. They were drafted this year.

Bell and Henry have 2 left. Both were drafted last year.

how many years left does matter some but RB value can change quickly. 

So if you keep Bell and Guice you will have 1st pick which will net you Gurley?  What if you kept Bell and Chubb?  Where does that put you with respect to draft position?  I would expect that to be a very low point total compared to someone keeping two players that played all year.

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4 hours ago, Gally said:

So if you keep Bell and Guice you will have 1st pick which will net you Gurley?  What if you kept Bell and Chubb?  Where does that put you with respect to draft position?  I would expect that to be a very low point total compared to someone keeping two players that played all year.

Landing the first pick is always tough. We actually keep 4 total. And owners will sell out and keep 4 crap players if it means they land the first pick. I have Hopkins and Beckham as my other keepers.

beckham didn’t score too high this year. Keeping bell and guice will definitely move me up. Probably top 5. Otherwise, keeping chubb will bump be to the 6-12 range. 16 teams.

Every response ignores Henry. Is he the clear #4 in this group?

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11 minutes ago, downsouth said:

Landing the first pick is always tough. We actually keep 4 total. And owners will sell out and keep 4 crap players if it means they land the first pick. I have Hopkins and Beckham as my other keepers.

beckham didn’t score too high this year. Keeping bell and guice will definitely move me up. Probably top 5. Otherwise, keeping chubb will bump be to the 6-12 range. 16 teams.

Every response ignores Henry. Is he the clear #4 in this group?

I have Guice as the clear #4 because of the injury.  There is no guarantee he is healthy or anywhere near what he was before.  Not everyone recovers like AP.  It usually takes some time to get back to full speed even if they are playing. 

 

To me it is easily Bell and Chubb unless Bell goes to a terrible landing spot.  But even then he might still be the choice over Henry for me. 

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On ‎1‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 1:41 PM, Gally said:

I have Guice as the clear #4 because of the injury.  There is no guarantee he is healthy or anywhere near what he was before.  Not everyone recovers like AP.  It usually takes some time to get back to full speed even if they are playing. 

 

To me it is easily Bell and Chubb unless Bell goes to a terrible landing spot.  But even then he might still be the choice over Henry for me. 

Not only Guice is an injury risk, the situation in WAS isn't good either.  Good chance Alex Smith is done.  Who is going to be QB in WAS?  Jordan Reed is on his last legs.  Crowder is a good WR3 on a team but not a guy that can carry an offense.  And Doctson is a bust.  And Chris Thompson when healthy will steal a lot of catches, which limits Guice's upside in PPR leagues.

Much rather take my chances with Henry.  But Gally is right, it's Chubb and Bell assuming Bell goes to a good spot.

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