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AquaBliss

FanDuel Wildcard Weekend

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I like the Sat/Sun slate as it gives the most chance for a unique lineup in GPP’s.  Some thoughts:

QB - Any of these guys could go off this week.  I think I like Trubisky at home for the price.  Bears receiving core is pretty cheap for the stack, and PHI D is the worst against the pass in the playoffs.

RB - Probably have to pay up for Zeke.  I like Cohen as well, he’s like the James White of the Bears.  Not a lot of carries but always seems to find those short passes that turn into long gains.  Want to use M. Mack but Texans line is legit and I don’t see him getting enough carries to make value.

WR - I’m going cheap here so I can flex another good RB.  Cooper, Agholor, Gabriel are ok-enough options.

TE - You almost have to pick one of the top 3 in cash.  Otherwise you can try that Dallas guy nobody heard of since yesterday and see if lightning strikes twice?

D - Ravens D seems decent.  Chargers offense is too inconsistent after the KC win.

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Hilton always seems to light up Houst, so I am starting there and with Chicago D.  Honestly dont love any of the 4 games, so I will have to stare at this more.    

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Some tough GPP calls to make this week:

  • I was all set to play some Indy stacks, but looking at consensus rankings tells me to lay off all but Hilton and maybe Luck. 
  • I have Hopkins in several lineups.
  • Not crazy about Melvin. At that price, I'd rather use Elliott. 
  • I'm not paying for any Philly players aside from Sproles. Alshon in consideration.
  • Seahawks players low ranked by experts this week, but part of me thinks Seattle beats Dallas big.

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re: TE (mostly thinking from GPP angle)

Such a volatile group without Kelce to lean on or some decent middle tier options.  

Don't like Ertz (and Foles) against the Bears, maybe a single shot with him.  His big week is surrounded by 3 stinkers.  Should we be thinking about Philly potentially playing catch up all game?  Not sure that even matters.

Burton sucks whenever I use him.  So play him.

Ebron looks good in this group.

I need to look closer at Andrews (15 points recently vs LAC) and Jarwin snap counts and roles.  Maybe their the mid tiers I'm looking for.

Who's the gem in the 4k range that will pop a TD or 2?  Griffin/Thomas, Vannett/Dickson, and Hurst seem like the suspects.  Griffin had 10 points a few weeks ago against the Colts.  FBG likes Dickson over Vannett, but they lack targets.  

What a crap shoot.  I guess it has been all season, right?

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I am playing DK gpp. This is the wild card week where everything seems obvious, but the best play is probably to do the opposite of what everyone thinks should happen. So I am rolling out some Foles lineups. I really like Watson and Wilson this week too.

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Going the same route this week. Trying to go the contrarian route mostly as im only running 5-6 GPPs over the 3 slates. My predicted winners are Sea/Indy/Balt/Chi. I very much have a foles stack in one. I think they have a better chance to stun the bears than people think (also, im obviously a fan, so im cheering for them). 

Fading - Watson mostly. 

I see Elliott getting enough volume and same with Gordon, even if its in a losing effort. I have shares of each, I have more elliott, but i think most people will be fading gordon, so ill sneak him into 1-2 of my lineups. I like Carson/Howard/Mack too. I have Cohen/Burton in the lineup with foles. (lets go shooooot outtttttt)

fading Hopkins, completely. Too pricey and i wanna stack him with watson(also pricey).  I'd rather play roulette at the WR position than the RB spot and if I use nuke, thats what will happen at rb. Maybe i throw a .25 lineup together with Watson/Nuke. I like Lockett, Couttee, Agholar and AR15. 

TE- Got a little ertz, a little ebron, a little burton, 1 vannett, 1 griffin, 1 jarwin

Def - I love SEA. I understand using CHI. I have no idea what to expect out of the Balt/LAC game. I think its low scoring without many turnovers. (something tells me to now put together a stack for this game.)  Indy helps make it cheap and watson is the most sacked in the league, but aren't great. I have 1 share of philly. Fading Dallas. 

 

Playoffs are such a crapshoot though. So go with the gut, have some fun and see what happens. Thats my play. 

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For me, any L/U starts with Elliott, given his pass catching ability. Am also going to try running a few L/U’s with Lamar Jackson. If he runs, good. If he starts passing, could be good too. Also want to see about squeezing some Indy/Hou game stacks; may need some Carter/CouteeGriffin & Hines to do it.

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If anyone can figure out the Carter, Coutee, Smith, Griffin, Akins, Thomas, Rogers, Inman, Hines puzzle they'll be in good shape today.

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

Using Luck in 2/6 of my lineups, no Mack and Hopkins in 4/6- not looking good early.

I own zero Mack this week.

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Have a couple decent starts. Need some Gallup magic tonight. Bits of zeke and Carson as well. 

Best lineup so far. Mack/coutee/Ind def with Gallup going tonight. Also have Trubisky/Howard/AR15,  Melvin Gordon and Ertz to round that lineup out. 

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My showdown paid for my DK LUs yesterday, but looking to cash in one other one.  $1 in $4 out on my showdown.  What I freeze on is how much tinkering to do with swaps in LUs.  Right now I have 3 $1 gpps:

LU 1 is 14pts off the 2x line with Jeffery, Gordon, SD D.   This one probably has a chance and the most flexibility with salary.

LU 2 is 22pts off the 2x line with Gates, Howard, SD D.   This one might be DOA since there is not a ton to pivot to with those salaries.  

LU 3 was my WTF Bears stack, but I am sitting at 70pts with only 3 players having played - Zeke, Coutee, and Hopkins.   This is the one I am staring at the most, but it currently has 5 Bears in it - Trubisky, Howard, ARob, Burton, Bears with Agholor coming back.  

:oldunsure:

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Wow I really thought the Bolts were going to lose, I’ve seen them break down so many times over the years.  Last quarter was fun to watch though.  On to Chicago game.

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Up about $15 on the weekend.  Went 3-3 on the showdown slates, and cashed 2 of the 3 Sat-Sun slate LUs.  

Next week sets up for some great offensive games, so should be more fun DFS-wise.

 

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Won on Saturday $25. Put it, mostly, all on the Sunday slate and lost. That ends my season it was fun, some weeks. Looking forward to next year.

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Wow the difference is like night and day between last week and this week's slates.

Sooooo many offensive studs to choose from, I think I prefer last week. That Colts/Chiefs game should be a lot of fun though.

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Game-stacking Indy-Houston & the respective passing games killed me; should've used Mack, of course. 5 L/U's - $9 in, $4.99 out. Gonna give this week another go with the Sat-Sun 4 game slate and call it a year. Pitchers & catchers in how many days?  😀  

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On 1/7/2019 at 7:59 AM, Skoo said:

Wow the difference is like night and day between last week and this week's slates.

Sooooo many offensive studs to choose from, I think I prefer last week. That Colts/Chiefs game should be a lot of fun though.

Last week was where it made sense to go super contrarian. This week it seems like what is expected to happen will happen. Still a tough slate with so many options.

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$27 in tickets paid off by one $30 win. Hey, it's better than losing :)

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