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AFC Wild Card - Chargers @ Ravens (1 Viewer)

FreeBaGeL said:
Can you find literally one single example in the entirety of NFL history where a team up by 7 has elected to go for 2 to try and push the lead to 9 instead of kick the XP to make it 8?

"2 possessions" is a misnomer there.  If they miss their 2 point conversion then you're already up 2 possessions in reality, you just don't know it yet.  You're basically trading you attempting the 2 pointer for them attempting the 2 pointer.   This is doubly bad in a game like this where the Ravens offense has been horrible and hence is very unlikely to convert two 2 pointers, and also where you're playing against a top defense that has given you trouble near the goaline all day.

Now if you want to argue you get more expected points out of a 2 pointer than an XP in modern football then I'm down for that, but in that case you should be going for 2 every time.
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Eagles vs Vikings this year

 
bostonfred said:
You shouldn't, though.  You should go for 2 because if you miss and only lead by 7 your opponent will almost never go for 2. If you lead by 8 they always will. So the next touchdown is at worst a tie. 

But if you go for two and make it then it's a two score game.

If you believe your opponent would go for two when you lead by 7, that changes the math, but that's so rare in the league that you should definitely go for 2.
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But you're completely leaving out another scenario where you win on the opponent's next TD.

If you're up 8 and they score a TD you still have a 45% chance of winning right then and there (they fail to convert the 2)

If you're up by 7 and they score a TD you basically guarantee a tie (only chance of winning right there is a missed XP).

The bottom line is the math is REALLY simple.  You're simply trading who is attempting the 2 pointer, your offense or theirs.  1 for 1.  But here given that the choice is your offense that has struggled inside the 5 today against one of the league's best defenses versus the Ravens pathetic offense having to convert against your solid D, I would much rather be facing the latter.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
But you're completely leaving out another scenario where you win on the opponent's next TD.

If you're up 8 and they score a TD you still have a 45% chance of winning right then and there (they fail to convert the 2)

If you're up by 7 and they score a TD you basically guarantee a tie (only chance of winning right there is a missed XP).

The bottom line is the math is REALLY simple.  You're simply trading who is attempting the 2 pointer, your offense or theirs.  1 for 1.  But here given that the choice is your offense that has struggled inside the 5 today against one of the league's best defenses versus the Ravens pathetic offense having to convert against your solid D, I would much rather be facing the latter.
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It’s it being left out, it’s just that when you put together the ev of all those scenarios, going for two comes out higher

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Can you find literally one single example in the entirety of NFL history where a team up by 7 has elected to go for 2 to try and push the lead to 9 instead of kick the XP to make it 8?

"2 possessions" is a misnomer there.  If they miss their 2 point conversion then you're already up 2 possessions in reality, you just don't know it yet.  You're basically trading you attempting the 2 pointer for them attempting the 2 pointer.   This is doubly bad in a game like this where the Ravens offense has been horrible and hence is very unlikely to convert two 2 pointers, and also where you're playing against a top defense that has given you trouble near the goaline all day.

Now if you want to argue you get more expected points out of a 2 pointer than an XP in modern football then I'm down for that, but in that case you should be going for 2 every time.
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My premise is not based on coaches having a history of making smart decisions. The reward outweighs the risk, and to be clear I am talking about 4th quarter situations as to the 1 possession vs 2 possessions argument, which doesn't apply in this game, where the 2 poss vs 3 poss is an unbelievable slam dunk decision in terms of risk reward. I concede the 1 poss vs 2 poss is closer to marginal. I'm talking about what makes mathematical sense, not what some coaches have shown.

 
Chargers defender too busy complaining.  Probably would have been short of the first down if he just touched Crabtree on the ground 

 
barackdhouse said:
My premise is not based on coaches having a history of making smart decisions. The reward outweighs the risk, and to be clear I am talking about 4th quarter situations as to the 1 possession vs 2 possessions argument, which doesn't apply in this game, where the 2 poss vs 3 poss is an unbelievable slam dunk decision in terms of risk reward. I concede the 1 poss vs 2 poss is closer to marginal. I'm talking about what makes mathematical sense, not what some coaches have shown.
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The EV is very simple.  It simply comes down to whether you're more likely to have a successful 2 point conversion with your offense or prevent a successful 2 pointer with your D.

In this case it is your offense that has struggled near the goaline against one of the league's best defenses compared to a terrible offense trying to convert against your pretty good D.  I think the EV of SD "converting" a 2 pointer by stopping the Ravens was better than the EV of them converting it by scoring with their offense.  Uncovered Mike Williams not withstanding of course.

There is another factor that no one ever talks about though and that is that you lose a slight bit of EV based on giving the opponent more information earlier.  Because the 2 pointer was converted with 8 minutes left instead of at the end of the game, the Ravens know AHEAD of time that they need 3 scores instead of playing the rest of the game thinking they need 2 when they actually needed 3 if that 2 pointer fails at the end.

So now you have the, admittedly low percentage, scenario where 3 scores isn't actually enough.  The Ravens know they need 3 scores so they are playing faster, and they are about to score now with a full 2 minutes and timeouts left so they could actually get 3 scores here.  Whereas if the 2 pointer was attempted at the end they would have almost certainly taken more time on this drive and only scored with a few seconds left, so now if we get the same result out of the 2 (success for SD, failure for Balt) the result is game over instead of 2 minutes left with timeouts to get the ball back.

Again, it's a very small percentage, but it is often overlooked.

 
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