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Betting Trends Discussion - (Was $$$$$$$) (1 Viewer)

ZenoRazon

Footballguy
Stold this....

Betting Trends to Know

The Chiefs have now made the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season under Andy Reid. Only one other coach in Chiefs history has accomplished that feat: Marty Schottenheimer.

Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the Chiefs are 4-16 straight-up and 3-17 against the spread in the playoffs, including******* 0-9 ATS at home*******

The Colts and Chiefs have faced off four times previous to this week in the playoffs, Indianapolis is *******4-0 SU and ATS,******** with two of those four losses for Kansas City coming at home in Arrowhead Stadium.

For the 14th time his career, Andrew Luck faces a team on the road that’s on extended rest (eight or more days): Luck is******** 9-4 (69.2%) ATS, making him the NFL’s most profitable quarterback in this spot since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2012.*****************

Take that 0=9. 4--0 and 9-4 and that gives the Colts a nice 22-4 trend in this "spot".  I seriously doubt there will be a stronger play next weekend ATS.

The key to ATS wagering is finding "spots" where one side has a massive amount of numbers in their favor, yep, just like that above.

Now before the usual.....that stuff doesn't mean anything different team today and...............ah....how many years have the Lions, Browns been around, tons of players have come and gone, why no Superbowl appearance?  Historical trends very important in ATS wagering.

 
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Stold this....

Betting Trends to Know

The Chiefs have now made the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season under Andy Reid. Only one other coach in Chiefs history has accomplished that feat: Marty Schottenheimer.

Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the Chiefs are 4-16 straight-up and 3-17 against the spread in the playoffs, including******* 0-9 ATS at home*******

The Colts and Chiefs have faced off four times previous to this week in the playoffs, Indianapolis is *******4-0 SU and ATS,******** with two of those four losses for Kansas City coming at home in Arrowhead Stadium.

For the 14th time his career, Andrew Luck faces a team on the road that’s on extended rest (eight or more days): Luck is******** 9-4 (69.2%) ATS, making him the NFL’s most profitable quarterback in this spot since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2012.*****************

Take that 0=9. 4--0 and 9-4 and that gives the Colts a nice 22-4 trend in this "spot".  I seriously doubt there will be a stronger play next weekend ATS.

The key to ATS wagering is finding "spots" where one side has a massive amount of numbers in their favor, yep, just like that above.

Now before the usual.....that stuff doesn't mean anything different team today and...............ah....how many years have the Lions, Browns been around, tons of players have come and gone, why no Superbowl appearance?  Historical trends very important in ATS wagering.
Azcards alias? I really didn't want to bump this thread but I think historical trends mean squat when betting individual games. 

 
I will add something that may or may not mean anything. These playoffs the more experienced QB is 4-0 ATS. Luck is the old man of this matchup.

 
I love how some gamblers believe a result that happened years ago is a trend and should be taken into account for a future game. Please continue.
Not a result, a long time tested proven result, yep, a trend.

There are teams in the league who suck coming off a bye, some that shine going into a bye, some suck in prime time games others shine......why?

Players come and go so why is it the Lions/Browns STILL no Superbowl, while The Steelers/Pats have played in how many?

 
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I'm not any kind of player. serious or comical. Any gambling I do is with money that is disposable.
Like everything else, there are fundamentals involved. You will need to know how these teams do vs the number in whatever role they are in that week.  Yep, this takes time, so you better have the interest.

 
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It's literally called Gambler's Fallacy. 
Right???

Like how can you factor anything when betting KC with Mahomes now?  Base it on how the club did with A Smith - beyond dumb.

Look at this year's trends, face to face match ups, common opponents. Offensive and defensive stats and trends. Turnovers etc etc Injuries.

Everything else is a total waste of time. 

 
Right???

Like how can you factor anything when betting KC with Mahomes now?  Base it on how the club did with A Smith - beyond dumb.

Look at this year's trends, face to face match ups, common opponents. Offensive and defensive stats and trends. Turnovers etc etc Injuries.

Everything else is a total waste of time. 
I got Colts plus whatever the number is Friday, I'm basing my play on this....

Chiefs...0-9 ATS under Reid in the playoffs.

Colts...4-0 ATS vs Chiefs in the Luck era.

Luck the best QB in the NFL ATS vs any opponet with a week off.

30 days self bannishment sound good?

Dumb is ignoring how things really are.

 
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Not a result, a long time tested proven result, yep, a trend.

There are teams in the league who suck coming off a bye, some that shine going into a bye, some suck in prime time games others shine......why?

Players come and go so why is it the Lions/Browns STILL no Superbowl, while The Steelers/Pats have played in how many?


What’s Mahomes record ATS at home in the playoffs?

Exactly.  This is a complete unknown despite your best efforts to prove otherwise.  You would have bet dinosaurs to dominate the Earth for its entire remaining history.  Yet here we mammals are kicking ###, taking names, and digging up fossils.

 
A team will be one of four things....

home fav

home dog

road fav

road dog

The Jets will be a HF Sunday, in that role they have gone 14-6 the last three seasons (same coach).

The Cards will be the RD, in that role a wimpy 3-17 the last three seasons (same coach).

The Jets heading into a bye week, they are a gaudy 10-3 ATS last 13 times.

The Cards coming off MNF,  where they are a weak 2-16 last..............................

See how it works, yep, very time consuming as you eliminates games without those kinds of numbers favoring a side.

With 14-16 games to work with you will find 3-5  that are playable from a ATS perspective.

With just a few like the playoffs not so easy.

 
What’s Mahomes record ATS at home in the playoffs?

Exactly.  This is a complete unknown despite your best efforts to prove otherwise.  You would have bet dinosaurs to dominate the Earth for its entire remaining history.  Yet here we mammals are kicking ###, taking names, and digging up fossils.


What’s Mahomes record ATS at home in the playoffs?

Exactly.  This is a complete unknown despite your best efforts to prove otherwise.  You would have bet dinosaurs to dominate the Earth for its entire remaining history.  Yet here we mammals are kicking ###, taking names, and digging up fossils.
And if you had gone the other way in Chiefs playoff games laying 110 to win a 100, guess what?

Don't fight it guy, just admit ya don't get it.

 
What is there to get?  That you don’t have any understanding of independent events?  Okay, I get that.
This is not an independent event, if it was then we wouldn;t have an ATS history between these teams.

LSU playing Cal for the first time, yep...independent event....ok?

Dude, books written on how to bet football games ATS, guys who make their living dealing in ATS wagering.  Don't look foolish ok?

 
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I believe the Colts will win with the strong defense and an offense that can match KC's scoring.
The Chiefs have a banged up defense that will not stop Luck enough times or create turnovers
to help Mahomes.

Past history with the Pats/Chargers is irrelevant as they have not played each other for a while.
I would bet the Chargers- better defense.

 
I believe the Colts will win with the strong defense and an offense that can match KC's scoring.
The Chiefs have a banged up defense that will not stop Luck enough times or create turnovers
to help Mahomes.

Past history with the Pats/Chargers is irrelevant as they have not played each other for a while.
I would bet the Chargers- better defense.
I agree and will play the Colts.

Here is what you are missing...

How do the Pats do as a home fav in the playoffs, forget the opponet that is what is irrelevant.

How do the Chargers do as road dogs in playoff games?

Yep, homework.

 
This is not an independent event, if it was then we wouldn;t have an ATS history between these teams.

LSU playing Cal for the first time, yep...independent event....ok?

Dude, books written on how to bet football games ATS, guys who make their living dealing in ATS wagering.  Don't look foolish ok?


Vegas makes a feast on guys like you.  I’ll refrain from any further discussion, since it clearly isn’t going anywhere.

 
Vegas makes a feast on guys like you.  I’ll refrain from any further discussion, since it clearly isn’t going anywhere.
Dude, you clearly aren't getting this and know nothing about how any of it works. I have been winning for over 20 years because I know what to play. Vegas wishs guys like me didn't exist.

Google....How to beat the point spread.........try learning how this stuff even works, ok?

 
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I agree and will play the Colts.

Here is what you are missing...

How do the Pats do as a home fav in the playoffs, forget the opponet that is what is irrelevant.

How do the Chargers do as road dogs in playoff games?

Yep, homework.
Chargers are 7-1 on the road this year, 8-1 if you include the London game(I know not playoffs).
Rivers and that defense won't care that they are at N.E. 
This is the weakest Pats team in a long time, so I don't think home field saves them.

 
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Chargers are 7-1 on the road this year, 8-1 if you include the London game(I know not playoffs).
Rivers and that defense won't care that they are at N.E. 
This is the weakest Pats team in a long time, so I don't think home field saves them.
The Chargers vs a rookie QB who was pretty much terrible is a lot different than facing a rested Tom Brady, you do see that?

I need to do my homework before I can talk the numbers.

 
The Chargers vs a rookie QB who was pretty much terrible is a lot different than facing a rested Tom Brady, you do see that?

I need to do my homework before I can talk the numbers.
Yes, I do. Brady has ONE reliable WR. Gronk is too slow and the RB's aren't quick enough for that defense.
Chargers can get a push up the middle-Brady hates that. The wild card is Patterson but I don't think it's
enough. Hogan might show up for this game but it hasn't happened for most of the year.

The Chargers D and D coordinator can overcome the quick release that Brady has and McDaniels
creative play calling won't be enough. The Pats can try and play the dink and dunk game but Tom
better be ready to take a lot of hits.  

 
Yes, I do. Brady has ONE reliable WR. Gronk is too slow and the RB's aren't quick enough for that defense.
Chargers can get a push up the middle-Brady hates that. The wild card is Patterson but I don't think it's
enough. Hogan might show up for this game but it hasn't happened for most of the year.

The Chargers D and D coordinator can overcome the quick release that Brady has and McDaniels
creative play calling won't be enough. The Pats can try and play the dink and dunk game but Tom
better be ready to take a lot of hits.  
Did you really say, the RB;s aren't quick enought?  You can't be serious.

There is a reason the Pats are at home again for the playoffs.

Let;s just watch what happens, ok?

 
Like everything else, there are fundamentals involved. You will need to know how these teams do vs the number in whatever role they are in that week.  Yep, this takes time, so you better have the interest.
Claerly you are a professional gambler. Don’t give these secrets away or more will catch on  

 
Did you really say, the RB;s aren't quick enought?  You can't be serious.

There is a reason the Pats are at home again for the playoffs.

Let;s just watch what happens, ok?
I did forget about S Michel.
The Pats are at home because the AFC is a hot mess.
I've given my reasons why the Chargers are the better team(defense).
The Chargers offense can match the Pats and not turn the ball over.  

 
Claerly you are a professional gambler. Don’t give these secrets away or more will catch on  
I can only do football so there goes being a pro gambler.  Those guys can work all sports.

There are no secrets, all those serious about ATS wagering know how it's done.

 
I did forget about S Michel.
The Pats are at home because the AFC is a hot mess.
I've given my reasons why the Chargers are the better team(defense).
The Chargers offense can match the Pats and not turn the ball over.  
Not talking Michel.  White has some serious jets.

Andrew Luck, Big Ben, Watson, Mahomes, Mayfield, Rivers, a hot mess?  Then there is THE GOAT.

Belichick playoff experience vs  what is his name?

 
Curious why a really smart gambler like you isn’t advocating playing the moneyline on IND instead of ATS, since their record SU against KC is as good or better than their record ATS.

I’ll hang up and listen.

 
ZenoRazon said:
Not talking Michel.  White has some serious jets.

Andrew Luck, Big Ben, Watson, Mahomes, Mayfield, Rivers, a hot mess?  Then there is THE GOAT.

Belichick playoff experience vs  what is his name?
Yes, a mess. The top six teams in the AFC are close to equal. NFC, not so much.
The Pats schemes can only do so much.

 
ZenoRazon said:
How do the Chargers do as road dogs in playoff games?
2018 Chargers are 1-0 as road dogs in playoff games.

Serious question why would any other itineration of "the Chargers" with totally different rosters and coaching staffs matter?  

 

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