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The Death of big oil thread... (1 Viewer)

Banger

Banger

Footballguy
this seems to be the moment where everything unraveled for big tobacco.  SCOTUS clears the way for Mass AG to obtain records from Exxon likely to show that for decades they've known and concealed fossil fuels role in climate change...

http://news.trust.org/item/20190107143238-u421z/

I posted this in another thread but there are now viable alternatives that are being pushed globally except here in the US of A that are radically and quickly changing the fate of global oil...

https://twitter.com/GregorMacdonald/status/1082018027967664128

 
The key to the big tobacco reveal was that it allowed class action lawsuits to move forward. People who got cancer from smoking hired trial lawyers; the trial lawyers made a lot of money (not so much the folks with cancer.) Even so, Big Tobacco is very much alive 

 
Big tobacco is still quite big.  They are just more diversified so you don’t notice it as much.

 
jonessed said:
Big tobacco is still quite big.  They are just more diversified so you don’t notice it as much.
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But tobacco use has been significantly lowered in the Western World and the health impacts from it have been greatly reduced. I think most could live with big oil moving into non fossil fuel areas.

 
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Ilov80s said:
But tobacco use has been significantly lowered in the Western World and the health impacts from it have been greatly reduced. 
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And that lost piece of the market has been replaced with vaping nicotine, which is rampant amongst teenagers.

Better for now I suppose.  At least until we figure out what the long-term damage if that is.

 
jonessed said:
And that lost piece of the market has been replaced with vaping nicotine, which is rampant amongst teenagers.

Better for now I suppose.  At least until we figure out what the long-term damage if that is.
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I don't know the full numbers but I would be shocked if vaping has made up the entire market space that cigarettes once held. It seems safer but we do not know the full long term effects. Also, will it be as addictive longterm or will these young people be able to ditch the habit easier than smokers of the past?

Relating it to oil, I am sure whatever we replace it with will have negative consequences but they won't be as bad as oil- similar to how vaping seems to be a better alternative than smoking.

 
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Ilov80s said:
I don't know the full numbers but I would be shocked if vaping has made up the entire market space that cigarettes once held. It seems safer but we do not know the full long term effects. Also, will it be as addictive longterm or will these young people be able to ditch the habit easier than smokers of the past?

Relating it to oil, I am sure whatever we replace it with will have negative consequences but they won't be as bad as oil similar to how vaping seems to be a better alternative than smoking.
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The numbers for high school kids is fairly similar.  That’s where the addiction really takes hold as the brain is highly susceptible.  Hopefully it doesn’t continue to rise.

 
timschochet said:
The key to the big tobacco reveal was that it allowed class action lawsuits to move forward. People who got cancer from smoking hired trial lawyers; the trial lawyers made a lot of money (not so much the folks with cancer.) Even so, Big Tobacco is very much alive 
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I don;t think they have as much influence in DC

 
jonessed said:
The numbers for high school kids is fairly similar.  That’s where the addiction really takes hold as the brain is highly susceptible.  Hopefully it doesn’t continue to rise.
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There are 1.1Bn smokers worldwide rn; 50Mn vape. Obviously trends would be more meaningful than aggregate totals but we’re a ways off from equating their respective popularity.

 
BobbyLayne said:
There are 1.1Bn smokers worldwide rn; 50Mn vape. Obviously trends would be more meaningful than aggregate totals but we’re a ways off from equating their respective popularity.
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Vaping is fairly new.  That’s why it’s important to keep an eye on the teenage numbers.

 
jonessed said:
The numbers for high school kids is fairly similar.  That’s where the addiction really takes hold as the brain is highly susceptible.  Hopefully it doesn’t continue to rise.
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Interesting. Do you have some good numbers? I think cigarettes were at like 40+% of HS seniors in the 90s. I haven't seen vape numbers that high but it would not surprise me.

 
msommer said:
Can we get back to big oil rather following every tangent?
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Yeah. 

My point was that this current reveal is not like Big Tobacco because I don’t think there are going to be class action suits. So I don’t know what this news is going to change exactly. 

 
timschochet said:
Yeah. 

My point was that this current reveal is not like Big Tobacco because I don’t think there are going to be class action suits. So I don’t know what this news is going to change exactly. 
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Potential litigation for climate change costs? It would be a hard sell.

 
parasaurolophus said:
If juries can be convinced that people lighting things on fire and sucking in the smoke werent the people at fault when they got sick anything is possible. 
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Sure, although in that case it was clear that the companies lied and withheld the truth from customers. That is the core of the case IMO. Not too disimilar to the J&J Baby Powder lawsuit. Were they selling a dangerous product? Did they know it was dangerous and kept that info from the public? Did they even go further and use resources to block or discredit the truth from the public?

It seems like there is solid ground for a massive class action lawsuit from the States. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Interesting. Do you have some good numbers? I think cigarettes were at like 40+% of HS seniors in the 90s. I haven't seen vape numbers that high but it would not surprise me.
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The 90s peak was 25%.  I believe the highest ever was the 70s when it went to high 20s. E-cigarettes/vaping is currently around 23%.

 
jonessed said:
The 90s peak was 25%.  I believe the highest ever was the 70s when it went to high 20s. E-cigarettes/vaping is currently around 23%.
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I guess it depends on the qualifier: tried it vs done it in last month vs use it regularly, etc. I have definitely seen numbers for tobacco way above 20% range

 
Ilov80s said:
I guess it depends on the qualifier: tried it vs done it in last month vs use it regularly, etc. I have definitely seen numbers for tobacco way above 20% range
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That could be.

Given how long vaping has been around 23% seems really high.

 
On topic, this article is a great read and is something t really pay attention to regarding the peak of ICE vehicles.

ICE Vehicle Sales Likely Peaked in 2018

The reign of the fossil fuel-powered car may be ending.

In a report published on Sunday, several experts told the Financial Times that they believe sales of fossil fuel-powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles peaked in 2018, meaning that it’s unlikely that more ICE cars will be sold in any future year— and if they’re correct, this epochal change in the auto industry could majorly benefit the environment.

Many experts predicted at the beginning of 2018 that demand for ICE vehicles wouldn’t peak until 2022 at the earliest, according to the FT report. But a combination of several factors — including Brexit, the U.S.-China trade war, and new emissions targets in Europe — has dealt a major blow to global car sales this year.

“When you look at 2018 since the summer, new car sales in all of the important markets are going down,” Axel Schmidt, global automotive lead at Accenture, told FT. “Selling combustion engine cars to customers — this will not grow in the future.”

...

 
People are moving from cars to SUVs/trucks though (at least in the US).

 
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Fan of Charles McCoy said:
Car to SUV is beside the point. From here on out, EV is to eat away at ICE vehicle sales steadily until EVs are the norm. 
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Model 3 was a game changer, but hopefully will have lots of competition in the next 3-4 years. Tesla sold 145K in 2018 plus another 100K Model S and Model X.

Global plug-in electric vehicle sales topped 2 million in 2018 for the first time, out of approximately 89 million passenger vehicles sold. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
Model 3 was a game changer, but hopefully will have lots of competition in the next 3-4 years. Tesla sold 145K in 2018 plus another 100K Model S and Model X.

Global plug-in electric vehicle sales topped 2 million in 2018 for the first time, out of approximately 89 million passenger vehicles sold. 
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the game changer will be battery life....that's the only thing really holding the industry back....once that gets into the 300-400 mile range I'm in and will be until I die....

 
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Fan of Charles McCoy said:
China appears to be leading the world in EV sales. Tesla was doing extremely well in China, until Trump thought it would be a good idea to hamstring ourselves.

Chinese EV Sales

Tesla Sales Down 70% in China Due to Tariffs
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cmon...Wilbur Ross will school you and let you know that it has nothing to do with the tariffs...just like Apple and many of the other companies soon to report...the tariffs have no negative impacts...we just collect $ from the Chinese from the tariffs...WINNING!!

 
Banger said:
the game changer will be battery life....that's the only thing really holding the industry back....once that gets into the 300-400 mile range I'm in...
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:whoosh:

Already there? The MS 100D has a rated range of 335, the LR Model 3 is at 310.

 
Banger said:
the game changer will be battery life....that's the only thing really holding the industry back....once that gets into the 300-400 mile range I'm in...
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How often do you drive 300 miles in one go?

My trigger range is 200 miles at highway speeds (here abt 70 mph) - but frankly, for my everyday need I could live with half that, maybe 60%, particularly with fast charging options

I think we need to get off buying a car for our peak needs, and instead buy for 80% of the need and rent for the rest.

Just IMHO

 
BobbyLayne said:
:whoosh:

Already there? The MS 100D has a rated range of 335, the LR Model 3 is at 310.
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well, I should've been clearer...at an affordable price for the masses.  It's getting there but you have to pay a premium as it's a $100k car....they need to be able to able to get those battery lifes on the $30k models and the ICEs will be dead within years.

 
msommer said:
How often do you drive 300 miles in one go?

My trigger range is 200 miles at highway speeds (here abt 70 mph) - but frankly, for my everyday need I could live with half that, maybe 60%, particularly with fast charging options

I think we need to get off buying a car for our peak needs, and instead buy for 80% of the need and rent for the rest.

Just IMHO
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unfortunately (fortunately) I have a house in VT so drive 240+ miles a dozen times a year and head to Virginia 2-3 times a year.  i hear ya about the peak issue but it's not practical to take the car the and charge it midway.   we're getting close and I'll probably get one in the next couple years...my wife and I had a 2 hour conversation on the way back from VT last week.  She's a bigtime greeny....

 
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Banger said:
well, I should've been clearer...at an affordable price for the masses.  It's getting there but you have to pay a premium as it's a $100k car....they need to be able to able to get those battery lifes on the $30k models and the ICEs will be dead within years.
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This is where I stand. A new car that starts at ~25k is my price point. I am not one to drop a lot of dough on automobiles (I’m a point A to point B kind of guy).

 
Fan of Charles McCoy said:
This is where I stand. A new car that starts at ~25k is my price point. I am not one to drop a lot of dough on automobiles (I’m a point A to point B kind of guy).
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I routinely spent $50ish on a car (although I just got my first pre-owned Acura and I'd never buy another new car again) but a car is a horrible investment and just couldn't bring myself to spending $100k on a car even though I could "afford" it.  Just doesn't make sense to me.  But you can see with the model S sales...the people that can afford those premium cars are gobbling those up to the detriment of all the other luxury vehicles...the same will happen when the battery life / options are more commoditized for the masses. 

 
Banger said:
well, I should've been clearer...at an affordable price for the masses.  It's getting there but you have to pay a premium as it's a $100k car....they need to be able to able to get those battery lifes on the $30k models and the ICEs will be dead within years.
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I hear ya, although the Long Range Model 3 starts at $51K now ($56K with autopilot.)

Sounds like you'll be pulling the trigger on an EV sooner or later. I recommend not test driving one or borrowing a friends or renting on Turo because that will accelerate your timeline big time.

Instant torque is pretty addicting, and one-pedal regenerative braking rules. Although I am big on seeing ICE vehicles die, I mostly love EVs because they're so much fun to drive. 

 
FWIW you can get into a used Model S for under $35K these days, and occasionally see one under $30. But of course those don't have autopilot and tend to be the 60Kw battery (210 mile range.) You can also find 2015 P85Ds for around the same price as the Model 3, which I think is a pretty interesting debate if AP isn't that big of a deal for you. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
I hear ya, although the Long Range Model 3 starts at $51K now ($56K with autopilot.)

Sounds like you'll be pulling the trigger on an EV sooner or later. I recommend not test driving one or borrowing a friends or renting on Turo because that will accelerate your timeline big time.

Instant torque is pretty addicting, and one-pedal regenerative braking rules. Although I am big on seeing ICE vehicles die, I mostly love EVs because they're so much fun to drive. 
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too late...I've driven my bro in law's new model S and it unreal....he moved from the Audi R8 (iron man car) to the model S and he says he'll never get another ICE.

 
msommer said:
No Tesla should be forced to drive in a ####hole ;)  

ETA Every third car sold in Norway in 2018 was EV
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Trying to remember the podcast I heard on the Sovereign Fund a few years ago....might have been Freakonomics. It's pretty ironic the North Sea oil field finances Norway being the greenest nation in the world (and the many incentives explain why Tesla's dominate the market there....they basically make it a no brainer for anyone thinking about a 3 series or C Class.)

 
BobbyLayne said:
FWIW you can get into a used Model S for under $35K these days, and occasionally see one under $30. But of course those don't have autopilot and tend to be the 60Kw battery (210 mile range.) You can also find 2015 P85Ds for around the same price as the Model 3, which I think is a pretty interesting debate if AP isn't that big of a deal for you. 
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realistically I could see myself getting the current model S's 2 years from now used as they come off their leases...hand my Acura to my son and I'll be EV from then forward.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Trying to remember the podcast I heard on the Sovereign Fund a few years ago....might have been Freakonomics. It's pretty ironic the North Sea oil field finances Norway being the greenest nation in the world (and the many incentives explain why Tesla's dominate the market there....they basically make it a no brainer for anyone thinking about a 3 series or C Class.)
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IMHO unsustainable in the long run and not a model e.g. Denmark could copy (We are laughably far behind with EV sales, but pretty far along with renewable energy)

 
msommer said:
BobbyLayne said:
Trying to remember the podcast I heard on the Sovereign Fund a few years ago....might have been Freakonomics. It's pretty ironic the North Sea oil field finances Norway being the greenest nation in the world (and the many incentives explain why Tesla's dominate the market there....they basically make it a no brainer for anyone thinking about a 3 series or C Class.)
Click to expand...
IMHO unsustainable in the long run and not a model e.g. Denmark could copy (We are laughably far behind with EV sales, but pretty far along with renewable energy)
Click to expand...
How Can Tiny Norway Afford To Buy So Many Teslas - Freakonomics radio podcast Oct 2014

 
BobbyLayne said:
Trying to remember the podcast I heard on the Sovereign Fund a few years ago....might have been Freakonomics. It's pretty ironic the North Sea oil field finances Norway being the greenest nation in the world (and the many incentives explain why Tesla's dominate the market there....they basically make it a no brainer for anyone thinking about a 3 series or C Class.)
Click to expand...
I was in Sweden, Denmark and Finland this summer and was amazed at how they are lights year ahead of us with their use of bicycles, the wind mills, the clean waste plants...it was eye opening and getting back home and hearing how we need to make coal great again just hammers in how far in the wrong direction we're currently being led.  It's funny because if he really pushed the clean side he really could've done some good things infrastructure wise but he's in bed with Russia and Saudi who survive by oil....so that's what drives him....

 
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