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Joe Bryant

If You Could Draft Trevor Lawrence Today - 1st Round Pick?

Theoretical Question. If you’re an NFL GM and you could draft Trevor Lawrence today knowing he’d have to sit for 2 years, would you spend a 1st round pick on him?   

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Theoretical Question. If you’re an NFL GM and you could draft Trevor Lawrence today knowing he’d have to sit for 2 years, would you spend a 1st round pick on him? HT to my Buddy @Ryan Hester

Elaborate on your answer if you like. 

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Assuming I have a guaranteed contract and assurances from ownership that it won't be held against me when we stink for the 2 year period, absolutely would

Edited by TLEF316
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Heck yeah. I don't watch college football but his last game, and this one, were the only ones I've seen. He's got it.

Edited by Bucky86
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Maybe.

Might be viable for a good team with a decent, or aging QB, that can afford to sit and wait.  Likely a good team that can move up in the draft, much like KC drafting and sitting Mahomes for a year.

Would be harder to justify for a team drafting in the Top 5 that needs help immediately.

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It is a bit less rare in recent history, but a first round QB sitting for two years is not that extraordinary -- Rivers behind Brees, and Aaron Rodgers behind Favre for example.  You would certainly need some buy-in from ownership, as taking a bit of a risk (a number of things can happen in the two year period before he even sees the practice field that may be out of your control).

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1 minute ago, Grahamburn said:

Only if he cuts his hair. 

:lol:Just what my lady friend would say.  Her hero is Johnny U and she cant stand Weddle or any of the guys with dreds, thinks they are "unprofessional!"

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Passes measurable checklist.

  • Height 6'5 ✔️
  • Weight 215 lbs ✔️
  • Strength/frame ✔️
  • Strength/arm  ✔️
  • Scrambling/running ability ✔️

Comes from big school.  He even has arm talent:   There is a science to Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence's spiral

About the only major unknown is his age (19)...  You could pick at whether or not he'd be a leader or turn off some team mates with his pious character but he seems to have everything you'd want.

According to Daniel Jeremiah if a player has the measurables a player will fail for two main reasons, the first is off-field issues and the other is injury. 

I don't see any red flags.

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In relation to the leader aspect, did you see his interaction with Wilkins late in the game?  If a senior DT appreciates a true freshman Qb, that tells me everything I need to know about how his teammates view him.

Certainly a 1st round pick right now.  If he stays at the same level skills wise for 2 years he is the #1 pick in 2021.  With development, there will be a discussion about whether or not he is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. 

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Kind of sucks for him and the NFL that he can't come out after next season. 

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He would be a 2019 Top 5 lock. It’s a shame the soonest he’s allowed to take a pro snap is September 2021. 

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The biggest problem you have with burning a 1st rounder on him now and then waiting 2 years for him to become eligible is the lack of any control of the situation during that 2 years.

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If my current QB is Brady, Rivers, Ben, Eli, Rodgers, Dalton, etc yes. 

Especially if I don't have to start his 5 year clock until he graduates.

I'd also draft Tua. 

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38 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

The biggest problem you have with burning a 1st rounder on him now and then waiting 2 years for him to become eligible is the lack of any control of the situation during that 2 years.

A quick call to Dabo, offering a contract starting in 2021 might help ;)

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1 minute ago, -OZ- said:

If my current QB is Brady, Rivers, Ben, Eli, Rodgers, Dalton, etc yes. 

Especially if I don't have to start his 5 year clock until he graduates.

I'd also draft Tua. 

Echoed statement. They're both great college players. I think Lawrence is a bit better, but still...

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2 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Theoretical Question. If you’re an NFL GM and you could draft Trevor Lawrence today knowing he’d have to sit for 2 years, would you spend a 1st round pick on him? HT to my Buddy @Ryan Hester

Elaborate on your answer if you like. 

Yes....I would trade Stafford and Detroits #1 to do it.

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8 minutes ago, pantherclub said:

for sure and to add to that I dont understand why Dabo isnt getting interest in the nfl

You'd think he would, even if teams waited until now to approach him.

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Without question, I would. 

Lawrence has an innate sense of how to read coverages and defenses.   He has the arm talent and the willingness to fit throws into tight windows.   He is not the run-of-the-mill QB that locks in on his primary read.   Having watched a lot of ACC Football, he reads the defensive formations and attacks.   

Sure he might look like Spicoli or Peter Tork from the Monkees (Baby Boomers will get those references), but this kid is an absolute surgeon in the pocket.   The moment never seems to get too big for him.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Passes measurable checklist.

  • Height 6'5 ✔️
  • Weight 215 lbs ✔️
  • Strength/frame ✔️
  • Strength/arm  ✔️
  • Scrambling/running ability ✔️

Comes from big school.  He even has arm talent:   There is a science to Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence's spiral

About the only major unknown is his age (19)...  You could pick at whether or not he'd be a leader or turn off some team mates with his pious character but he seems to have everything you'd want.

According to Daniel Jeremiah if a player has the measurables a player will fail for two main reasons, the first is off-field issues and the other is injury. 

I don't see any red flags.

Excellent summary, plus with the required time to sit, allows maturity, study and understanding complex offenses of NFL team.  I agree, No Red Flags! 

How ever much I dislike Clemson, they have produced some quality talent.  (I am a South Carolina Gamecock grad). 

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10 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Heck yeah. This is your next Tampa Bay Bucs QB.

 

Damn. enough already. we get it.  You hate Winston.  Stop polluting every thread with it.

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3 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Damn. enough already. we get it.  You hate Winston.  Stop polluting every thread with it.

Sorry to hear you were on the losing end of that but I never mentioned a name, I just said that in 2 years, they will be in the running for Lawrence.

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With a top 6-8 pick, no. Primarily because if my team is bad enough that we have a top 6-8 pick, I don't have the luxury of burning a first-rounder on a guy who won't see the field for 2-1/2 years. I could very well be out of a job by then.

Anything lower than that (or if I'm Jon Gruden and don't care), and if it's likely I'll have a need at QB 2 years out, absolutely.

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44 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

With a top 6-8 pick, no. Primarily because if my team is bad enough that we have a top 6-8 pick, I don't have the luxury of burning a first-rounder on a guy who won't see the field for 2-1/2 years. I could very well be out of a job by then.

Anything lower than that (or if I'm Jon Gruden and don't care), and if it's likely I'll have a need at QB 2 years out, absolutely.

Just use the Browns plan of using crappy QBs while getting talent elsewhere for a few years.

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Where is he sitting for two years? 

If he’s playing, absolute not. 

If he’s sitting away from football, no.

If he’s sitting in my meetings and during our games, absolutly. 

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Depends what 1st round pick.  Top 5?  No.  You can't wait 2 years for a top 5 pick.  Lower on?  For sure.  If you're lower down, chances are you might be looking for a new starter in 2 years so it would be worth it of course to get the likely #1 overall pick down the road.  Makes perfect sense for a team like the Giants, Bengals, Chargers, Patriots.  If you're those teams, no question.  If you're Arizona picking #1?  No. 

Think it depends a lot on your current situation but for most teams that don't have a franchise qb under the age of 30, I think it's a yes.  Would cost too much to move up to #1 in 2021.

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Wonder if Lawrence will play in a bowl game after his Jr year if he is going to be the #1 overall pick?

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1 hour ago, SR388 said:

Where is he sitting for two years? 

If he’s playing, absolute not.

You're a team like the Chargers, you don't spend a late 1st rounder on a guy that will still play college for 2 years and then likely come in and be your new franchise guy?  You get the likely #1 overall pick (I know a lot can happen), and never need to spend a single top 20 pick on him.

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1 hour ago, Deamon said:

You're a team like the Chargers, you don't spend a late 1st rounder on a guy that will still play college for 2 years and then likely come in and be your new franchise guy?  You get the likely #1 overall pick (I know a lot can happen), and never need to spend a single top 20 pick on him.

I’m not gonna pick a guy with my first rounder and then have him play two more full seasons. What if he gets hurt? I’ll take my chances to grab him the year he comes out. 

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Just now, SR388 said:

I’m not gonna pick a guy with my first rounder and then have him play two more full seasons. What if he gets hurt? I’ll take my chances to grab him the year he comes out. 

How are you grabbing him the year he comes out if you're the Chargers?  You have say the 25th pick in the draft, you can take a player there who may or may not turn out good, or a potential perfect fill in for Rivers when he retires.  Chargers could pick 25th the next 2 years and end up with a guy they'd have to trade 3 1st rounds to get up to #1 for in 2021.  No brainer if you're the Chargers in this hypothetical situation.

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6 minutes ago, Deamon said:

How are you grabbing him the year he comes out if you're the Chargers?  You have say the 25th pick in the draft, you can take a player there who may or may not turn out good, or a potential perfect fill in for Rivers when he retires.  Chargers could pick 25th the next 2 years and end up with a guy they'd have to trade 3 1st rounds to get up to #1 for in 2021.  No brainer if you're the Chargers in this hypothetical situation.

It’s a bizarre discussion anyway. Sure it might work for the chargers this once but in your hypothetical world other teams would also have the option to spend their first round pics. A few years in everyone would be have mortgaged their picks in advance and you’d essentially be right off where you are now.

This is a silly discussion.

Given the silly rules I’m still not drafting a guy and then letting him play against Alabama 2 more times on top of 20 more games.  

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Just now, SR388 said:

It’s a bizarre discussion anyway. Sure it might work for the chargers this once but in your hypothetical world other teams would also have the option to spend their first round pics. A few years in everyone would be have mortgaged their picks in advance and you’d essentially be right off where you are now.

This is a silly discussion.

Given the silly rules I’m still not drafting a guy and then letting him play against Alabama 2 more times on top of 20 more games.  

Just find it interesting that if you're the Chargers GM, you legit pass on the guy at pick 25.

I think it depends where in the first it is.  Heck if you're the Giants at 5, it might not even be a bad play.  Franchise QB's are rare.

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19 hours ago, Da Guru said:

Wonder if Lawrence will play in a bowl game after his Jr year if he is going to be the #1 overall pick?

He would if it's for the national championship.

If it's a traditional bowl game.....no way.  At least I wouldn't.

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16 hours ago, SR388 said:

I’m not gonna pick a guy with my first rounder and then have him play two more full seasons. What if he gets hurt? I’ll take my chances to grab him the year he comes out. 

You do understand that, assuming he doesn't get injured, he will likely be the #1 overall pick when he comes out after his junior year.

Good luck trading up to the #1 from say the #15 or #20 pick.  It's hard enough trading up to the #1 from the top 5.

To me, taking Lawrence two years early is well worth the risk of a mid to late 1st round pick.  He has all the makings of a legit franchise QB.

For teams with older veteran QBs like NE, PIT, CIN, LAC, NYG, DET, NO, it's great strategy.  Let your veteran QB play 2-3 more years, then hand the keys to Lawrence.

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16 hours ago, SR388 said:

I’m not gonna pick a guy with my first rounder and then have him play two more full seasons. What if he gets hurt? I’ll take my chances to grab him the year he comes out. 

I don't even think he has to worry much about getting hurt. Barring a catastrophic, unlikely to take the field again injury, he'll be a top pick in 2021. He could probably tear his ACL during the last play of the National Championship game of his junior season and a QB-needy team at or near the top would still take him and wait out the recovery period, given how players rebound these days.

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43 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Aloha Mr. Hand.

If I'm here and you're here doesn't that make it our time?

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57 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

You do understand that, assuming he doesn't get injured, he will likely be the #1 overall pick when he comes out after his junior year.

Good luck trading up to the #1 from say the #15 or #20 pick.  It's hard enough trading up to the #1 from the top 5.

To me, taking Lawrence two years early is well worth the risk of a mid to late 1st round pick.  He has all the makings of a legit franchise QB.

For teams with older veteran QBs like NE, PIT, CIN, LAC, NYG, DET, NO, it's great strategy.  Let your veteran QB play 2-3 more years, then hand the keys to Lawrence.

Moving from 15-20 to one for TL would cost 4-5 firsts and probably multiple 2nds.  Would it be worth it, I have no idea.

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He's a great prospect but holy overreaction to a good game on National TV, Batman. 

Where was this thread a week ago?  Why is this suddenly a question after a game where the vast majority of his production came on two busted coverages (one where the DB literally fell over with an injury at the LoS) and half of the rest of it came on two circus catches by the WRs?

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53 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

He's a great prospect but holy overreaction to a good game on National TV, Batman. 

Where was this thread a week ago?  Why is this suddenly a question after a game where the vast majority of his production came on two busted coverages (one where the DB literally fell over with an injury at the LoS) and half of the rest of it came on two circus catches by the WRs?

Probably because the type of underclassman who leads his team to a national championship doesn't usually have typical franchise QB size, arm strength, accuracy, mobility, and demonstrated leadership/command of an offense. 

Then add in that he's a true freshman possessing all of those skills/traits. 

And to answer your actual question...no one thought to ask it a week ago because it's a complete hypothetical thanks to the NFL's eligibility rules. That good enough for you?

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I've said it before - I saw him play my nephew's school in the GA state semis when he was a sophmore at Cartersville. I would have taken him number  1 that day without waiting. I couldn't believe what I was seeing at a high school game. 

Edited by ffldrew

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25 minutes ago, RUSF18 said:

Probably because the type of underclassman who leads his team to a national championship doesn't usually have typical franchise QB size, arm strength, accuracy, mobility, and demonstrated leadership/command of an offense. 

Then add in that he's a true freshman possessing all of those skills/traits. 

 

Just to expand on this part a bit...from some quick research the kind of guys who had comparable on the field success as true freshmen QBs were people like Jamele Holloway (discussed a bunch on Monday night since he was the only one to win), Terrelle Pryor, Tommie Frazier...Dan Marino, and Peyton Manning.

Cross off those first three names for the reasons I mentioned in the quote. Then consider that Lawrence's numbers were in another stratosphere compared to what Marino and Peyton put up as sophomores, much less as true freshmen. Obviously you need to take into account different eras but to describe his performance this year as anything but remarkable is really short sighted.

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