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Anarchy99

Teams Scoring 500 Points In A Season . . .

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I believe I may have brought this up in prior years, but heading into this season there were 23 teams that scored at a rate of 500 points per season in the SB era (there were a handful of teams that played fewer games, so I prorated them to 500+ points if they scored at the same rate over 16 games. Only 4 of the 23 wound up winning the Super Bowl that season. I only bring it up again because there were 3 teams that scored 500+ points this year.

2013 DEN	606	SB L
2007 NEP	589	SB L
2018 KCC	565	?
2011 GBP	560	DIV L
2012 NEP	557	AFCCG L
1998 MIN	556	NFCCG L
2011 NOS	547	DIV L
1983 WAS	541	SB L
2016 ATL	540	SB L
2000 STL	540	WC L
2018 LAR	527	?
1999 STL	526	SB W
2004 IND	522	DIV L
1968 OAK*	518	AFCCG L
2011 NEP	513	SB L
1984 MIA	513	SB L
1982 SDC*	512	DIV L
1966 KCC*	512	SB L
2010 NEP	510	DIV L
2009 NOS	510	SB W
1966 DAL*	509	NFCCG L
1994 SFO	505	SB W
2018 NOS	504	?
2001 STL	503	SB L
1998 DEN	501	SB W
2015 CAR	500	SB L

Given that the 3 teams are still alive of the 8 teams remaining and they all have home games, the chances might be higher this year than in season's past that one of the high scoring teams wins the title. Also, given that the game has changed and teams can lose scoring 50 points in a game these days, we may not see a battle of a great offense facing a great defense like we have in other years.

Edited by Anarchy99

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That 66 Chiefs team still one of my favorites.

Len Dawson leading passer

Mike Garrett second leading rusher.  Heisman winner.

Otis Taylor*** an amazing receiver and Chris Buford in the top four WR.

Johnny Robinson and Bobby Hunt tied for first both with 10 INT's.

The Chiefs scored 448 giving up 276. So an average game....32 -19.

And they were huge in the lines. Buck Buchanon 6-8ish. A HOFer.

*** This guy was out of Prairie View one of those HBCU schools, he was big and fast and seem to glide, so smooth.  He could play right now,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyKOuTwXKD0

In 66 he averaged a gaudy 22.4 a catch, best in the AFL by far.

He along with the 250 pound monstrosity Cookie Gilchrist&&&& and the amazing Lance Alworth had  NFL talent.

Lynn Swann (same HS at Tom Brady, a Cali long jump champ) is in the Hall of Fame with these career numbers

receptions....336

yards....5462

TD's...51

Taylor isn't in the Hall of Fame

410

7306

57

Something is wrong there.  Cliff Branch should also be in before Swann.

&&&& He went straight from HS to the CFL, then ended up with the Bills, the first 1000 yard rusher in AFL history.

 

Edited by ZenoRazon
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The results of this seems to be running counter to the common narrative I heard on ESPN and so on recently in regards to new coaching hires and focus being on the offensive side of the ball, due to rule changes favoring the offense recently.

Yet according to your list high scoring teams that make it to the SB are more likely to lose it than win it suggests that something else besides scoring points is critical for winning the big game.

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All 3 teams that scored 500 points advanced, meaning that there is a 3 in 4 chance a 500 point scoring tram will win the SB. The remaining team that allowed the fewest points is NE . . . and they are the one team of the three that didn’t hit the 500 points scored mark.

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On 1/13/2019 at 9:35 PM, Anarchy99 said:

All 3 teams that scored 500 points advanced, meaning that there is a 3 in 4 chance a 500 point scoring tram will win the SB. The remaining team that allowed the fewest points is NE . . . and they are the one team of the three that didn’t hit the 500 points scored mark.

And the trend continues. 

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2 minutes ago, BusterTBronco said:

Saints would have beaten NE out there today. No doubt in my mind.  Way to go NFL officials!

Reading this on other boards, too. No one really knows ... but is this a common sentiment?

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2 minutes ago, BusterTBronco said:

Saints would have beaten NE out there today. No doubt in my mind.  Way to go NFL officials!

Would have been a high scoring game. Brees is even with Brady and light years ahead of Goff. Just like Deion says, he's not ready for the SB.

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4 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Reading this on other boards, too. No one really knows ... but is this a common sentiment?

It would have come down to coaching. The Rams were to green and in experienced.

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

It would have come down to coaching. The Rams were to green and in experienced.

One plays the back up RB, the other plays the back up QB.

  • Laughing 1

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On 1/11/2019 at 9:37 AM, Anarchy99 said:

I believe I may have brought this up in prior years, but heading into this season there were 23 teams that scored at a rate of 500 points per season in the SB era (there were a handful of teams that played fewer games, so I prorated them to 500+ points if they scored at the same rate over 16 games. Only 4 of the 23 wound up winning the Super Bowl that season. I only bring it up again because there were 3 teams that scored 500+ points this year.


2013 DEN	606	SB L
2007 NEP	589	SB L
2018 KCC	565	?
2011 GBP	560	DIV L
2012 NEP	557	AFCCG L
1998 MIN	556	NFCCG L
2011 NOS	547	DIV L
1983 WAS	541	SB L
2016 ATL	540	SB L
2000 STL	540	WC L
2018 LAR	527	?
1999 STL	526	SB W
2004 IND	522	DIV L
1968 OAK*	518	AFCCG L
2011 NEP	513	SB L
1984 MIA	513	SB L
1982 SDC*	512	DIV L
1966 KCC*	512	SB L
2010 NEP	510	DIV L
2009 NOS	510	SB W
1966 DAL*	509	NFCCG L
1994 SFO	505	SB W
2018 NOS	504	?
2001 STL	503	SB L
1998 DEN	501	SB W
2015 CAR	500	SB L

Given that the 3 teams are still alive of the 8 teams remaining and they all have home games, the chances might be higher this year than in season's past that one of the high scoring teams wins the title. Also, given that the game has changed and teams can lose scoring 50 points in a game these days, we may not see a battle of a great offense facing a great defense like we have in other years.

With due respect to your logic, this one didn't age so well, though I can see the reasoning.  

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By comparison, here is a snapshot of the best defenses over the years. It's a little harder to figure out what defenses to use and how to define things, as there was a lot less scoring in the 70s. So to try to get close to the same number of teams in the defense data set as the high scoring offense, I set the bar for teams playing in 1978 or later (when the league went to a 16 game schedule at 210 points allowed in a season (13.1 ppg). For teams prior to that, I went with a baseline of 166 points allowed in a season (which extrapolated would be 190 points in a 16 game schedule or 11.9 ppg). That yielded 29 teams vs. 26 teams in the 500 points or more scored data set. I listed the projected totals of the teams only played 14 games to a 16 game equivalent. Here are the results . . .

YR	TEAM	PA	W	L		
1977	ATL	147	7	7		NONE
1969	MIN	152	12	2	L	SB
1975	RAMS	154	12	2	L	CONF
1976	PIT	158	10	4	L	CONF
1971	MIN	159	11	3	L	DIV
1971	BAL	160	10	4	L	CONF
1970	MIN	163	12	2	L	DIV
2000	BAL	165	12	4	W	SB
1968	BAL	165	13	1	L	SB
1977	RAMS	169	10	4	L	DIV
1977	DEN	169	12	2	L	SB
1973	MIA	171	12	2	W	SB
1975	PIT	185	12	2	W	SB
1966	GBP	186	12	2	W	SB
1986	CHI	187	14	2	L	DIV
2000	TEN	191	13	3	L	DIV
1978	PIT	195	14	2	W	SB
2002	TBB	196	12	4	W	SB
1985	CHI	198	15	1	W	SB
1978	DEN	198	10	6	L	DIV
2006	BAL	201	13	3	L	DIV
2005	CHI	202	11	5	L	DIV
1992	NOS	202	12	4	L	WC
2001	CHI	203	13	3	L	DIV
1994	CLE	204	11	5	L	DIV
1993	NYG	205	11	5	L	DIV
2001	PHI	208	11	5	L	CONF
1978	DAL	208	12	4	L	SB
1996	GBP	210	13	3	W	SB

This group won 8 Super Bowls and lost 4 Super Bowls. The high scoring teams won 4 Super Bowls and lost 10 Super Bowls. As a side note, there were a number of SB champion teams lurking right underneath the group listed above. There were 7 SB championship teams that were close to the mark that missed by a point per game or less (2008 PIT, 1991 WAS, 1990 NYG, 1978 PIT, 1974 PIT, 1972 MIA, and 1969 KCC). And how the best defense in terms of PA per game in the SB era missed the playoffs completely is one of the great mysteries of all time.

Edited by Anarchy99

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Just now, Futeki said:

I suggest using deviation from the league average in a given year (PF and PA) instead of the raw point totals.

I would use historical DVOA, which might be even better. 

But these are pretty good lists indeed. 

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10 minutes ago, Futeki said:

I suggest using deviation from the league average in a given year (PF and PA) instead of the raw point totals.

I can do that a different day. Don't have more time at the moment.

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