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*** OFFICIAL AFC CHAMPIONSHIP : KC Chiefs vs NE Patriots *** (1 Viewer)

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Opening line projected to be KC -3. Who do you like? 

Can the Patriots take down the Chiefs on the road or does Mahommes magical first year as a starter continue to the Super Bowl? 

:popcorn:  

 
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Yeah I was gonna say I still see 7:38 left on the clock...must likely pats win but that’s still a lot of time

 
Mahomes will lead KC to the super bowl. 30-20 KC win. Pats are not as dangerous on the road. Chiefs got their stupid playoff monkey off their back. They’re very good at home. 

 
Opening line projected to be KC -3. Who do you like? 

Can the Patriots take down the Chiefs on the road or does Mahommes magical rookie year continue to the Super Bowl? 

:popcorn:  
Not a rookie, but still a magical run thus far. Hard to go against B & B.

 
People remember that the Patriots and chiefs played a close game in Foxboro and that's true. But the game was not close early. It was 24-9 at halftime and ended 43-40.

A big part of that was tyreek hill with a 75 yard touchdown catch and kareem hunt with a 67 yard touchdown catch.  Hill had 7 catches for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns and dominated the game.

The chiefs definitely have a good home field advantage, and the Patriots do too, so it's easy to say the Patriots won by 3 because they get 3 points for home field and the chiefs get 3 for home field and that is a 6 point swing.  

But i think the Patriots have an advantage because they don't have to take Kareem hunt away and can focus on taking hill out of the game. That's easier said than done, and i don't expect them to shut him down with their mediocre defensive backs but i think they will do a better job than last time because they don't have to split their attention between him and hunt.  I think williams will get a chance to run free as a result. 

I think the Patriots have improved since October.  They're playing good football and they're healthier, and they looked like a complete team against the chargers. The chiefs are playing well too, and their offense and defense both looked fantastic this week but they've since lost hunt and may be without berry. 

Both teams cooled off a bit in December before blowing up in the playoffs. Both teams looked good this week. 

I slightly favor the Patriots in this game right now.  But it's really close and i'm excited to watch it.  I don't think either team will be comfortable with a 10 point 4th quarter lead. 

 
The Patriots looked like the Patriots today for the first time in a long time. I still favor KC, but after seeing the Patriots dominant performance today, I would not be surprised at all if the Patriots win. 

 
As many see it...getting old seeing NE in the final game. Hope KC destroys them....but in all reality that will not be the case. Just hope to see a good football game at this point.

 
Fun facts

Patriots have missed the playoffs once under tom brady, back in 2002. They have lost their first game twice - once in the wildcard round and once in the division. 

They started undefeated in 2001, 2003, 2004 and won their first playoff game in 2005 and 2006 before losing the next week. They famously went 2-1 in 2007, brady was hurt in 2008, and they lost their first games in 2009 and 2010. That's an incredibly impressive 14-5 record from 2001 to 2010, going to the afc championship game 5 times and the superbowl 4, winning 3 of them. 

From 2011 until now?  They're 14-5 again, have gone to the afc championship game 8 straight times, have gone to 4 superbowls and won 2, and will be playing for the chance to go to another. 

Brady now has 14 playoff wins in each decade. That's insane.  But to see how amazing it really is, let's put it in context with how piers.

First let's look at Roethlisberger, the most successful of his contemporaries in the postseason. 

The Steelers under Roethlisberger - another certain Hall of Famer - have been to 5 afc championships, won 3 and are 2-1 in the superbowl.  Brady has been to more afc championship games, more superbowls and won more superbowls in each decade. He's 13-8 in the playoffs.  Brady is 14-5 in each decade.  

Peyton Manning finished with a postseason record of 14-13. Manning won 2 superbowls and went to 4. Brady went to 4 superbowls in each decade and won at least 2 in each decade. Which is impressive in its own right.  But brady currently has 10 playoff losses.  Meaning that he's almost certainly going to retire with twice as many wins and fewer losses than manning. 

Now let's look at the next best guys

The saints under drew brees - a first ballot Hall of Famer and likely the all time leader for passing yards and touchdowns - are going to the nfccg for the third time in the hopes of going to their second superbowl.  He's now 8-6 in the playoffs. 

The giants under eli manning have beaten the Patriots in the superbowl twice.  Those are the only two superbowls they've been to, the only nfccgs, and the only playoff wins. The other 4 times eli went to the playoffs they went 1 and done. They're 8-4 in the playoffs. 

The packers under Rodgers have been to 4 nfc championship games and won 1, going on to win the superbowl.  He's 10-7 in the post season.

Think about that for a minute.  Not only is brady better in either decade than any contemporary, which is incredible in and of itself, but

Brees, eli and Rodgers are a combined 26-17 in the playoffs.  

Roethlisberger and peyton are a combined 27-21. 

Brady is 28-10. 

He's got more playoff wins than the next two guys combined, or the next 3 after that, and his 28-10 postseason record compares very favorably to their combined 53-38. 

And he's now 3,923 yards and 22 touchdowns away from passing peyton manning for most career yards and touchdowns.  

 
Opening line projected to be KC -3. Who do you like? 

Can the Patriots take down the Chiefs on the road or does Mahommes magical first year as a starter continue to the Super Bowl? 

:popcorn:  
Pats no bueno on the road in playoff games. They'll get beaten down by the home crowd noise, the speed of the Chiefs, their TE, and that fast WR guy they have. It could get ugly, like the opening game 2017 when the Cheifs beat the crap out of the Pats. The likely path to victory for the Patriots is to lean heavily on Michel, keep Mahomes on the sidelines, and wear down the clock.then you start getting the ultra-conservative Andy Reid to come out. But I'd expect their defense to be on fire against NE, just as they were against the Colts. 

 
Pats no bueno on the road in playoff games. They'll get beaten down by the home crowd noise, the speed of the Chiefs, their TE, and that fast WR guy they have. It could get ugly, like the opening game 2017 when the Cheifs beat the crap out of the Pats. The likely path to victory for the Patriots is to lean heavily on Michel, keep Mahomes on the sidelines, and wear down the clock.then you start getting the ultra-conservative Andy Reid to come out. But I'd expect their defense to be on fire against NE, just as they were against the Colts. 
In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots have played a whopping 4 road playoff games NOT in Denver (a unique environment at altitude). The most recent of those was over a decade ago. 

They are 3-1 in those road playoff games. 

Also, after that “beat-down” in the 2017 season opener (not playoffs), the Patriots went on to go 15-2 over their next 17 games to play in their 8th Super Bowl in the B&B era. 

 
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In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots have played a whopping 4 road playoff games NOT in Denver (a unique environment at altitude). The most recent of those was over a decade ago. 

They are 3-1 in those road playoff games

Also, after that “beat-down” in the 2017 season opener (not playoffs), the Patriots went on to go 15-2 over their next 17 games to play in their 8th Super Bowl in the B&B era. 
One win was against Chargers who picked Brady off to clinch the win except the DB, instead of going down, tried to return the ball and had it punched out by a Patriot. Pats go down and score for the win. And the other 2 were against my Steelers who Brady has owned. Don't know enough about KC's D, but I hope they don't play zone or its already over. 

 
Experience, coaching and game preparation/plan... NE

Team over-due for trip to SB... KC

Let's go Chiefs!   :gang2:

 
This is all going to end soon. I understand that everyone likes cheering against a winner and a lot of teams have had their seasons ended by the Patriots or dislike them for any number of other reasons. 

I cheered against the bulls when Jordan was destroying the league and against the cowboys when they were good and against the Yankees when Jeter and co went on their run.  I get it. And i wouldn't go back and cheer for the Yankees because screw them.

But if i had it to do over again, i'd cheer for the bulls.  Not for this golden state conglomerate of talent where a bunch of guys agree to play together and win, that's not what i'm talking about. 

I mean rooting for that transcendent talent, seeing just how great it can be. 

Maybe that's Mahomes. And rooting for him this weekend is getting in on the ground floor.  He's arguably the best in the line of Next Big Things that includes Luck, Cam, RG3, Kaepernick, Rodgers (!) and this new group with Watson and Goff. Maybe he is a generational talent. 

I'm just saying that if he fails, instead of being bummed to see the Patriots in another super bowl, try to appreciate what you're watching while it's happening. It's supposed to be fun to cheer for the best ever, but people make themselves not enjoy it.  

 
It's gonna be a game with frigid temps. The high for KC on Sunday right now looks to be 15, and with a 5:40 pm start, this will mostly be an evening game, which means the temps will likely be in the single digits for much of the game.  

 
This is all going to end soon. I understand that everyone likes cheering against a winner and a lot of teams have had their seasons ended by the Patriots or dislike them for any number of other reasons. 

I cheered against the bulls when Jordan was destroying the league and against the cowboys when they were good and against the Yankees when Jeter and co went on their run.  I get it. And i wouldn't go back and cheer for the Yankees because screw them.

But if i had it to do over again, i'd cheer for the bulls.  Not for this golden state conglomerate of talent where a bunch of guys agree to play together and win, that's not what i'm talking about. 

I mean rooting for that transcendent talent, seeing just how great it can be. 

Maybe that's Mahomes. And rooting for him this weekend is getting in on the ground floor.  He's arguably the best in the line of Next Big Things that includes Luck, Cam, RG3, Kaepernick, Rodgers (!) and this new group with Watson and Goff. Maybe he is a generational talent. 

I'm just saying that if he fails, instead of being bummed to see the Patriots in another super bowl, try to appreciate what you're watching while it's happening. It's supposed to be fun to cheer for the best ever, but people make themselves not enjoy it.  
Going to be out there in the 8 degree weather cheering my ### off against Tom and co.    But I respect the hell out of Tom Brady.  I initially didn't like him..  i hated that the Pats beat the Rams in that superbowl.. i like the greatest show on turf.   Really I didn't get into fully respecting him until the '07 18-1 season..  then it was almost ironic seeing him get pwned by a lame team in the same way he pwned the Rams with a "lame team".     

Now I'm just impressed by the longevity...  Brady is one of the two NFL players older than I am.. and I think it's unreal he's still competing at an extremely high level.     I don't root for him like I root for another old guy still doing well in his sport like Roger Federer..  but I respect the hell out of it.

The nice part about this final 4 is that I'll appreciate the matchup in the superbowl no matter the combination of teams.  That's rare.

 
As a Raider fan, there is no "winner" I'd like out of this game; as an NFL fan, it's going to be one hell of an entertaining game and going to enjoy the heck out of it.

KC home advantage is really key here, and I think that's what gives the Chiefs the edge in my book. But I can see the Pats coming out of this winners as they have more of an ability under BB, IMHO, to focus on one or two aspects of KC's game and try and take it away, while simultaneously attack in so many different ways to take advantage of KC's D.

IT's this aspect of both Brady and BB's game that has led to so many AFC title games -- smart play at the line. Adjusting and taking what the D gives you. 

Mahomes has been really impressive in creating with his feet -- if the Pats D can somehow consistently pressure Mahomes while preventing his ability to scramble, make time to get downfield receivers open, etc., I think that's a huge step in stopping KC. You can't exactly make KC one-dimensional given their threats, but if you can limit the downfield strikes and big plays on late downs on long distance, that would be a big step in coming away with the win.

Going to be fun to watch. I'll just have to hold my nose at whomever makes it out of this game, and root for the NFC this year in the Big Show....

 
As a Chief's fan, I have been saying all year that this year is not going to be a Super Bowl year. I think it will only be a stepping stone and probably ends this week. I don't like the idea of seeing BB a second time. I believe he will scheme enough to slow the Chiefs down and the Chief's D will not be able to stop the run like they did with Indy.

I hope I am wrong about this week but the future is bright with almost $40m in cap room for next year.

 
Adam Schefter‏ @AdamSchefter 7m7 minutes ago

National Weather Service is projecting an arctic blast to settle over Kansas City for Sunday's AFC Championship Game vs Patriots, reports the @AP_NFL . Temperatures at kickoff could range from 10 degrees to well below zero, making it the coldest game in Arrowhead Stadium history.

 
Pats win this game. End of story. NFL has creamed itself over the prospect of a Brady/Rodgers SB forever. Since the Packers are a mess, Brady/Brees is the next best thing. Unless the Pats really f### up the first half and drop 14+ behind, as long as the refs can keep them within a couple scores, NE is winning. Same treatment will happen for the Saints.

 
As a Chief's fan, I have been saying all year that this year is not going to be a Super Bowl year. I think it will only be a stepping stone and probably ends this week. I don't like the idea of seeing BB a second time. I believe he will scheme enough to slow the Chiefs down and the Chief's D will not be able to stop the run like they did with Indy.

I hope I am wrong about this week but the future is bright with almost $40m in cap room for next year.
If it makes you feel better, in the TB / BB era, NE has gone 16-1 in the playoffs when they haven't faced a team that season but only 12-9 when they played that team earlier in the year.

 
Rooting for Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Big Red has been nothing but classy his entire career, and heis a great Offensive mind. I really like Maholmes, too, seems like a solid kid.

I can't ever root for the Pats. Some of it might be haterade, as a Philly fan, but the team reminds me of every cheesey 80s spoiled rich kid bully from the movies. Every time I see Brady whining for a flag, or wearing a fur coat and Uggs, I just think "What a fake-#### dewshcanoe." I respect the dynasty, and I have grown to actually enjoy watching Belichik take questions from the media and play headgames with them. It's undeniable they have been the poster boys for success throughout the BnB years, but I still want to see them fail. The more tragically, the better.

 
squistion said:
Adam Schefter‏ @AdamSchefter 7m7 minutes ago

National Weather Service is projecting an arctic blast to settle over Kansas City for Sunday's AFC Championship Game vs Patriots, reports the @AP_NFL . Temperatures at kickoff could range from 10 degrees to well below zero, making it the coldest game in Arrowhead Stadium history.
Huge.

Brady is great in cold weather. Would be interested in understanding how Mahommes has done in the cold.

Pats are going to run the hell out of the ball.

 
Patriots will eat up the "underdog" and "they can't win on the road" narrative all the way to a dominant 38-20 win over the Chiefs. Andy Reid and Mahomes find a way to fumble this one early and the Patriots roll. The cold, playoff experience, coaching, all favor the Patriots. Bob Sutton is an atrocious defensive coordinator, they play zone more than 80% of the time, and unless him and Reid come up with an absolutely masterful plan, I won't bet against Brady and Belichick. Especially after seeing how well that offensive line played yesterday and made Bosa and Ingram invisible. 

 
Inb4 everyone starts talking up the Pats offense as the same level as KC.
:lol:  

No. 

Pats haven’t won a road playoff game since 2006. Only 0-3 but still they’re a different team at home vs away like most teams. 
Right. 

If this were in foxborough, the pats would have a really good chance. 

It's still going to be close.

squistion said:
Adam Schefter‏ @AdamSchefter 7m7 minutes ago

National Weather Service is projecting an arctic blast to settle over Kansas City for Sunday's AFC Championship Game vs Patriots, reports the @AP_NFL . Temperatures at kickoff could range from 10 degrees to well below zero, making it the coldest game in Arrowhead Stadium history.
Tell me if I'm wrong -

1. Really cold weather hurts the deep game a bit, thus the short pass and run game are key. 

2. The pats backs are better, especially as receivers. 

3. Kelce >>> Gronk

4. BB  >> Reid

5. Experience matters.

I'll be cheering for the chiefs for sure (as you'd expect my user name to do) but won't be the least surprised if the Patriots win.

I think either team will get crushed* by the saints or Rams. 

Ok, not really crushed but I like both NFC teams better.

 
ShamrockPride said:
Pats win this game. End of story. NFL has creamed itself over the prospect of a Brady/Rodgers SB forever. Since the Packers are a mess, Brady/Brees is the next best thing. Unless the Pats really f### up the first half and drop 14+ behind, as long as the refs can keep them within a couple scores, NE is winning. Same treatment will happen for the Saints.
Oy, why not just enjoy the game? The thread wasn't 10 mins old and ur 1st to go negative with a dig toward any1 who might think NEs offense is anywhere near as good as KCs (not that any1 was) and now u reverse course with a its all fixed that NE will win.

Do u really think the NFL wouldn't be happy with Mahomes  (AKA league MVP, 1 of if not the brightest young star in the league, magic man etc, etc) vs Brees?

I know u really, really hate NE (as do most and thats fine) and post as much but can't you just enjoy what should be a great matchup without crying foul before it even starts. 

Its ok to hate NE but add something to the conversation, this should be an awesome game and could easily go either way. If the game were in NE I would really like their chances but it is not and having to use the silent count on the road which gives the KC D line a fraction of a second they don't get in NE might be the difference.

Pretend the refs aren't in the tank for NE, how do u see the game going, is it not close in all 3 phases? 4 phases if u count coaching.

 
:lol:  

No. 

Right. 

If this were in foxborough, the pats would have a really good chance. 

It's still going to be close.

Tell me if I'm wrong -

1. Really cold weather hurts the deep game a bit, thus the short pass and run game are key. 

2. The pats backs are better, especially as receivers. 

3. Kelce >>> Gronk

4. BB  >> Reid

5. Experience matters.

I'll be cheering for the chiefs for sure (as you'd expect my user name to do) but won't be the least surprised if the Patriots win.

I think either team will get crushed* by the saints or Rams. 

Ok, not really crushed but I like both NFC teams better.
Good post!

I agree the severe cold is definitely bad for deep passing and that would seem to favor ne and the short passing game. Kelce certainly figures to be much more of a factor than gronk and ne not that great with TEs . BB better than Reid and NE would appear to have experience edge; however KC has home field and that is huge edge for their def especially if they can crowd the line and not worry about deep balls. Also NE plays a lot of man coverage and that sets up Mahomes to do a lot of damage with his legs. Could\should be a fascinating game and NEs ability\inability to keep Mahomes in the pocket and turnovers will likely be the deciding factors imho.  

 
Rain and wind slow down a deep passing game, not cold weather itself.  

It goes without saying, but turnovers are the key for KC.  They cannot turn it over.  As great as Mahomes is, he gets a little reckless at times, and in the 1st half of the NE game a few months back, he missed a bunch of easy throws and had that terrible pick at the end of the half (and they still only lost by 3 at NE).  Seemed like nerves more than anything, and once he calmed down, he was lights out in the 2nd half.  If he plays like that for 4 quarters, I think they win, but when the other coach is Belichick, you just never know. 

 
Pretend the refs aren't in the tank for NE, how do u see the game going, is it not close in all 3 phases? 4 phases if u count coaching.
Not really, I don't. In an unbiased ref world, I think it will be a close high scoring affair, similar to the first game, where the ultimate difference and advantage is the home field which leads KC to a W.

Coaching: BB easy. I shouldn't really have to go into it...

Offense: KC in terms of actual star, athletic, and football prowess, but NE has the perfect system in place, even if it's only a 3-man show (Brady, Jules, White). I'm going to give a very slight edge to KC.

Defense: NE of course. Every measurable stat and measure of common sense prove this. Not much analysis needed here. KC needs to focus on keeping their offense on the field. That said, it'll be interesting to see if NE D changes up their strategy after Tyreek torched them earlier in the season. Do they focus on limiting Kelce again, or do they now put their focus on limiting Hill? Defensive advantage goes to NE by a fair bit.

ST: Anytime you have a guy like Tyreek on return, I'm going with that team. That said, BB is smarter than to kick him the ball. So idk here. Guess I'll call it even.

I still think you'll see scoring into the 30s despite the cold. Will be won in the last 5 minutes.

 
Agreed, but the KC def at home has been a different animal than the one they bring on the road and same can be said for NE so i think deck is a bit stacked against NE.

 

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