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fantasycurse42

So Democracy is Fake in the UK?

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12 hours ago, Simon Shepherd said:

 

I think the EU will make concessions despite their insistence otherwise. Just like they repeatedly said they wouldn't bail out Greece, that their constitution makes it legally impossible. Guess what happened, they offered Greece a bailout. Again let's not forget: we buy more from the EU than they do from us. Imagine the pressure companies with high exports to the UK like German car manufacturers - BMW, Mercedes, Audi, to take one industry - are currently exerting on the EU to avoid no deal. Even if it is no deal, a trading arrangement with the UK would be quick to follow and the chaos would be short term only.

IMHO you are wrong and any (additional) concessions given will be cosmetic in nature to facilitate reason (from EU's perspective) in Parliament. We'll see over the course of the next two months.

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3 hours ago, msommer said:

IMHO you are wrong and any (additional) concessions given will be cosmetic in nature to facilitate reason (from EU's perspective) in Parliament. We'll see over the course of the next two months.

Exactly.  And when the EU doesn't budge and things go to ####, the Brexiteers will blame the EU.

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14 hours ago, msommer said:

IMHO you are wrong and any (additional) concessions given will be cosmetic in nature to facilitate reason (from EU's perspective) in Parliament. We'll see over the course of the next two months.

If there are no material concessions the deal in its current form will never pass through parliament. "This is the only deal possible and it cannot be renegotiated" is the EU's line. Well this deal as it is without changes to the backstop cannot pass. And that line they're taking also rules out a single market/customs union deal. One of those two things has to happen or it'll be a no deal brexit. There just isn't the numbers in the house of commons to support anything else.

10 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Exactly.  And when the EU doesn't budge and things go to ####, the Brexiteers will blame the EU.

Right now you do understand that one side is willing to negotiate further and the other isn't? Whose "fault" would that make no deal?

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4 minutes ago, Simon Shepherd said:

Right now you do understand that one side is willing to negotiate further and the other isn't? Whose "fault" would that make no deal?

This is like Trump -- "Democrats won't negotiate on the wall!"  Well, duh.  It's non-negotiable. 

The EU said they wouldn't negotiate before the vote.  The EU's incentive here is, and was from the very start, to keep the rest of the Union intact.   Expecting them to do anything to actively it undermine seems like wishful thinking.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz

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4 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

This is like Trump -- "Democrats won't negotiate on the wall!"  Well, duh.  It's non-negotiable. 

The EU said they wouldn't negotiate before the vote.  The EU's incentive here is, and was from the very start, to keep the rest of the Union intact.   Expecting them to do anything to actively it undermine seems like wishful thinking.

Ok fine - so why not negotiate a deal like Norway has? Why does this have to be the only deal possible?

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5 minutes ago, Simon Shepherd said:

Ok fine - so why not negotiate a deal like Norway has? Why does this have to be the only deal possible?

I'm not familiar enough with the details of Norway's quasi-membership, but my impression is that Norway has to follow all the EU rules that the UK just voted to get rid of.

Regardless, the EU's incentive here is to provide zero comfort to the UK.  It's possible they balk at the last minute, but banking the entire scheme on that and just wishing their position away seems pretty dangerous.

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3 hours ago, Simon Shepherd said:

If there are no material concessions the deal in its current form will never pass through parliament. "This is the only deal possible and it cannot be renegotiated" is the EU's line. Well this deal as it is without changes to the backstop cannot pass. And that line they're taking also rules out a single market/customs union deal. One of those two things has to happen or it'll be a no deal brexit. There just isn't the numbers in the house of commons to support anything else.

It certainly looks like a hard Brexit. But nothing else was ever a certainty

Quote

Right now you do understand that one side is willing to negotiate further and the other isn't? Whose "fault" would that make no deal?

You do understand that one side wants to leave an existing agreement while cherry picking the good parts and that is not in the interest of the remaining 27 countries, rignt?

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3 hours ago, Simon Shepherd said:

Ok fine - so why not negotiate a deal like Norway has? Why does this have to be the only deal possible?

I believe the British governement has specifically said the agreement between Norway and the EU is not good enough.

Also, the Norwegian Prime Minister has said publicly that that would not be a deal that the UK would want.

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3 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

I'm not familiar enough with the details of Norway's quasi-membership, but my impression is that Norway has to follow all the EU rules that the UK just voted to get rid of.

Regardless, the EU's incentive here is to provide zero comfort to the UK.  It's possible they balk at the last minute, but banking the entire scheme on that and just wishing their position away seems pretty dangerous.

Both of these assertions are to the best of my knowledge correct

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Current odds of hard brexit are 5-1

Great chatting to you guys on this! Going to bow out of the thread now, things I'd otherwise say I had better not, given I'm here under my IRL name!

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14 minutes ago, Simon Shepherd said:

Current odds of hard brexit are 5-1

Great chatting to you guys on this! Going to bow out of the thread now, things I'd otherwise say I had better not, given I'm here under my IRL name!

GL

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Yikes.  The history of registering foreign nationals is long and ugly.

"Just bumped into a neighbour who I was surprised to learn was a German National. She has been living in the UK for 74 years and continues to be a stalwart of our community. Tomorrow, she despondently told me, she must travel to Edinburgh to “register”."

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On 2/1/2019 at 11:37 AM, Simon Shepherd said:

Current odds of hard brexit are 5-1

Great chatting to you guys on this! Going to bow out of the thread now, things I'd otherwise say I had better not, given I'm here under my IRL name!

Thanks for your perspective dude

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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Yikes.  The history of registering foreign nationals is long and ugly.

"Just bumped into a neighbour who I was surprised to learn was a German National. She has been living in the UK for 74 years and continues to be a stalwart of our community. Tomorrow, she despondently told me, she must travel to Edinburgh to “register”."

Wait, what? 

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May suffering more defeats today  No delays to Brexit. No continuing support for the governments plan

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6 hours ago, msommer said:

May suffering more defeats today  No delays to Brexit. No continuing support for the governments plan

6 weeks from tomorrow, right?

Welp, at least democracy in the UK isn't fake.

Edited by BobbyLayne

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

6 weeks from tomorrow, right?

Welp, at least democracy in the UK isn't take.

That's right. The title is rather misleading as it looks right around now.

Hard Brexit looks more and more likely

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8 hours ago, msommer said:

That's right. The title is rather misleading as it looks right around now.

Hard Brexit looks more and more likely

So...UK is gonna crater?

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On 1/14/2019 at 2:20 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

BC those polls were wildly accurate before too.

You can't redo a vote bc you don't like the outcome - can't believe anyone would really argue against that, but here we are. 

Happened here in Charlotte.  Public said no to a public arena, R mayor and D city council F you, we're building it with your tax dollars regardless.

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2 hours ago, Dedfin said:

So...UK is gonna crater?

It's not looking good. But facts are few and far between. 

The UK government have contracted thtee new ferry lines to contend with expected customs backlog at existing ports of entry but I've seen nothing on whether more customs agents have been hired/trained.

For sure all supply chains will be disrupted by going to WTO rules from one day to the next and applying 40% import duty on everything coming in. Prices are going to rise, short term shortages, changes in consumer behaviour etc. etc.

Will production jobs move as a consequence? Unemployment rises, bankruptcies go up etc etc

Some British companies will undoubtedly do well, lije producers of foidstuffs without imported ingredients, or those who had lots of imports as competition before.

It's such a complicated situation that no one has offered a credible vision for what hard brexit means

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59 minutes ago, msommer said:

It's not looking good. But facts are few and far between. 

The UK government have contracted thtee new ferry lines to contend with expected customs backlog at existing ports of entry but I've seen nothing on whether more customs agents have been hired/trained.

For sure all supply chains will be disrupted by going to WTO rules from one day to the next and applying 40% import duty on everything coming in. Prices are going to rise, short term shortages, changes in consumer behaviour etc. etc.

Will production jobs move as a consequence? Unemployment rises, bankruptcies go up etc etc

Some British companies will undoubtedly do well, lije producers of foidstuffs without imported ingredients, or those who had lots of imports as competition before.

It's such a complicated situation that no one has offered a credible vision for what hard brexit means

Are the banks going to leave London? I assume that has a pretty serious effect on currency trading right? Which is the biggest market on the planet? 

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19 minutes ago, Dedfin said:

Are the banks going to leave London? I assume that has a pretty serious effect on currency trading right? Which is the biggest market on the planet? 

IMHO not wholly. Everything EU biz related will move to Paris or Frankfurt. Rest of world banking will not (except for EU banks that have little reason to stay). 

Just one more thing that is complicated and the effects of which is difficult to predict

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