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ZenoRazon

Top 10 QB's of All Time

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2 minutes ago, ZenoRazon said:

Hmmmm?

2 SB wins

4 pro bowls

7 4000 seasons

10 3500 yards or more

7 25 or more TD;s

5  90 or more QB Rating

 

And again, the same post as the last 4. He shouldn’t get a pass for participation because that’s what most of his stats are. The fact that he wasn’t in the top half of QBR, just in comparison to when he played, is faaaar more telling than yards and TDs. 

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1 minute ago, Elevencents said:

You keep pushing the same statistics and getting the same response. Are you hoping someone will just agree with you so you can move on?

Agree with me about what?

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2 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

And again, the same post as the last 4. He shouldn’t get a pass for participation because that’s what most of his stats are. The fact that he wasn’t in the top half of QBR, just in comparison to when he played, is faaaar more telling than yards and TDs. 

How far back do we go, before it;s....different era?

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10 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

So playing in a Dome mitigates against Warren Moon, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees respective careers?

Surely you can admit that Peyton and Brees are slam dunk HOFers, regardless. Sure, in comparing them to certain others, e.g., the old Peyton-Brady debates, the dome issue was a valid point of discussion. But Peyton and Brees accomplished so much that it doesn't matter. Not so for Ryan. Do you really disagree with this?

With regard to Moon, you might have a better argument when Ryan finishes his career. When I compared the two earlier in the thread, I didn't mention playing in a dome. It isn't necessary.

Moon was a 28 year old rookie, so he lost 5+ years, including a number of prime years, due to prejudice. Not Ryan's fault, of course, but that is a mitigator for Moon's career that Ryan doesn't have.

But Moon doesn't even need that mitigator. He played better relative to his peers than Ryan has so far, thought it is arguably close. But Moon was top 5 in the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs at age 41. Will Ryan do that? I very seriously doubt it.

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16 minutes ago, ZenoRazon said:
23 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Yes, longevity means something, and a player should get credit for it, provided his play is above average for a lot of years.

Hmmmm?

2 SB wins

4 pro bowls

7 4000 seasons

10 3500 yards or more

7 25 or more TD;s

5  90 or more QB Rating

Apparently, you missed the bolded part.

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23 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Surely you can admit that Peyton and Brees are slam dunk HOFers, regardless. Sure, in comparing them to certain others, e.g., the old Peyton-Brady debates, the dome issue was a valid point of discussion. But Peyton and Brees accomplished so much that it doesn't matter. Not so for Ryan. Do you really disagree with this?

With regard to Moon, you might have a better argument when Ryan finishes his career. When I compared the two earlier in the thread, I didn't mention playing in a dome. It isn't necessary.

Moon was a 28 year old rookie, so he lost 5+ years, including a number of prime years, due to prejudice. Not Ryan's fault, of course, but that is a mitigator for Moon's career that Ryan doesn't have.

But Moon doesn't even need that mitigator. He played better relative to his peers than Ryan has so far, thought it is arguably close. But Moon was top 5 in the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs at age 41. Will Ryan do that? I very seriously doubt it.

Well, here is the thing...as mentioned earlier in the thread, the last 8 years of Ryan’s career he’s averaged 4582 passing yards and 28.6 TD’s.  This has some great years (2016, 2018) and some not so great years (2013, 2017).  He just exited his Age 33 season.

Now Brees just turned 40 meaning that Ryan has 6 more years/seasons until he’d be at that stage of his career.  But assuming those averages...and with QB’s now being protected like they are, it’s not unreasonable or aggressive to extrapolate the averages I just mentioned...Ryan would turn 40 with...

74,212 Passing Yards (Brees has 74,437)

468 Passing TD’s (Brees has 520)

Brees career winning percentage is 58.9%.  Ryan’s is 58.6%.

....and Ryan has done this without a ‘Sean Payton’... or a base offense with 4 WR on the field all the time.  Not all mitigating circumstances should count against him, right?

But I think that’s the answer I’m still waiting on.  I agree Brees is a no-doubt first ballot HOF’er.  While Ryan struggles to even gain HOF consideration at this stage.  I get that he’s got a decent part of career to go...but career trajectory being what it is, it still feels like most believe Ryan shouldn’t seriously be considered.  Odd.

Edited by TheDirtyWord

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8 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

Comp %....60.3

QB rating...84.1

Seven...4000 yard seasons

Three.....30 TDseasons

Two SB wins

Hmmmmmmm?

Top 5 in interceptions . . . 6 times
Top 5 in fumbles . . . 4 times
Losing record . . . 6 times
Missed the playoffs . . . 9 times
One + done in the playoffs . . . 4 times
Career earnings . . . 2nd all time (will take over the top spot next year from his brother)
Career fumbles + interceptions . . .  6th all time
Career pick 6's . . . 7th all time
Career fumbles . . . 8th all time
Career interceptions . . . 14th all time
Career sacks . . . 15th all time
Career completion % . . . 40th all time
Career passer rating . . . 42nd all time
Career TD% . . . 68th all time
Yards per attempt . . . 85th all time
Yards per completion . . . 133rd all time

Hmmmmmmm?

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9 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

My apologies - I did confuse you with someone else.

But going back to divisional competition...the record of the AFC East/NFC South taking away 1) NE & Atlanta's record and 2) intra-divisional games since there is always one winner/loser is:

AFC East: 220-264 (5 playoff teams)
NFC South: 242-241-1 (11 playoff teams)

...that's not an insignificant delta in terms of divisional performance.  With that being said...this is an example of a situational bias that works in Brady's favor but ultimately is a (very) small piece of his success metric.  But when people discredit Ryan as a top tier QB, they do infer situational bias (i.e: He has Julio or he played indoors).

 

JWB is doing good work in regards to the Matt Ryan convo we were having earlier, but to jump back in for a minute, people "discredit" Matt Ryan as a top tier QB because he is NOT a top tier QB.  Unless you want to expand the top tier, which I think is usually 4-5 guys, he is by no stretch of the imagination a top tier QB, not even this past season when he was great statistically. Most agreed that the best QB's in 2018 were Mahomes, Brees, Luck and Rivers, and then the next guys talked about were R. Wilson, Brady, Roethlisberger and Goff (before he struggled late).  Except for maybe in or around Atlanta, Matt Ryan has never been talked about as being one of the best QB's in the league except one year, 2016.  That is not a bias or hate, but reality. And all of the numbers in the world won't change that.  

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1 hour ago, Ghost Rider said:

JWB is doing good work in regards to the Matt Ryan convo we were having earlier, but to jump back in for a minute, people "discredit" Matt Ryan as a top tier QB because he is NOT a top tier QB.  Unless you want to expand the top tier, which I think is usually 4-5 guys, he is by no stretch of the imagination a top tier QB, not even this past season when he was great statistically. Most agreed that the best QB's in 2018 were Mahomes, Brees, Luck and Rivers, and then the next guys talked about were R. Wilson, Brady, Roethlisberger and Goff (before he struggled late).  Except for maybe in or around Atlanta, Matt Ryan has never been talked about as being one of the best QB's in the league except one year, 2016.  That is not a bias or hate, but reality. And all of the numbers in the world won't change that.  

So now statically production doesn’t matter?  Why?

i point out his and Drew Brees career winning percentage is virtually identical  Doesn’t matter.

That at average levels of performance over the next 6 seasons that’ll take him through his age 39 season (like Brees just completed) he’d have close to 75,000 yards & 470 TD’s.  Doesn’t matter.

That despite having an MVP, a SB appearance and 1 more Conference Championship Game appearance than Philip Rivers and almost the exact per game production (where he has slight edges in most)...Rivers has been the better QB...doesn’t matter.

I guess I just don’t get it...so what matters?  Fans subjective eye-test?

 

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On 1/16/2019 at 5:28 PM, Just Win Baby said:

Moon was 28 years old as an NFL rookie due to racial bias within the league for the QB position, which drove him to the NFL. Despite this, he retired in the top 4 in NFL history in passing completions, passing yards, and passing TDs, and he made 9 Pro Bowls. That is really impressive considering he was shorted by 5-6 seasons in comparison to most NFL QB greats.

Moon is also the greatest African American QB of all time. Not really something Ryan can compete with, but it matters for purposes of Moon's place in NFL history.

Another way to look at it is how they ranked in their careers against their peers.

  • Here are their top 10 finishes, ordered from best season finish to last:
    • Moon (10 seasons): 1 1 3 3 3 5 5 7 7 10
    • Ryan (9): 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 9
    • Edge: Moon
  • Ryan has finished in the top 10 in passing TDs 9 times so far. Here are their top 9 finishes, ordered from best season finish to last:
    • Moon (9): 1 2 4 5 5 7 7 8 9
    • Ryan (7): 2 3 5 6 6 9 10
    • Edge: Moon

Frankly, it doesn't look particularly comparable at this point, though Ryan obviously isn't done.

Moon was very good. But when he played for the Vikings it seemed like almost every other game he would throw a pick 6. Drove me crazy.

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4 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

At some point

I was always ?????? with Eli,  trying to find some reason to put him in, and I doubt anyone digs into all that, it will be.....won a couple SB' a long career and high on the stat lists, yep....in.

 

Joe Namath is in the HOF because of one game and a big fullback.

 

Lynn Swann is in the HOF because of a few plays in Superbowls.

Edited by ZenoRazon
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Namath is underrated by a lot of people. From 1965-1974 he was a close contender for the top QB in the game, or at least for #2 behind Tarkenton. That shows up in his stats (if you look at the right ones and don't ignore things like sacks and fumbles) and in his awards (5 pro bowls and 1 first team all-pro) as well as his one big postseason. He had a lower career sack rate than Eli Manning (4.4% vs. 4.8%), despite playing in an era when sacks were far more common. He belongs in the Hall, though not in the top 10.

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30 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Namath is underrated by a lot of people. From 1965-1974 he was a close contender for the top QB in the game, or at least for #2 behind Tarkenton. That shows up in his stats (if you look at the right ones and don't ignore things like sacks and fumbles) and in his awards (5 pro bowls and 1 first team all-pro) as well as his one big postseason. He had a lower career sack rate than Eli Manning (4.4% vs. 4.8%), despite playing in an era when sacks were far more common. He belongs in the Hall, though not in the top 10.

It was a well know fact the AFL sucked on defense, to only complete 50.1 of his passes there.....weak.  He had 11 seasons where he had more INT than TD. the final count....173TD/220INT....that's bad. His career passer rating 65.9 sucks in any era.

Why "Broadway Joe" Namath Should Not Be in the Hall of Fame

Chris Young July 7, 2010

Joe Namath should not be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Most Hall of Fame quarterbacks have thrown for 200-plus touchdowns.

Throughout his 13-year career with the New York Jets, Namath threw more interceptions (220) than touchdowns (173). He averaged 17 interceptions a year and eclipsed 20 five times in his career.

Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh stated that Namath was "the most beautiful, accurate, stylish passer with the quickest release I've ever seen."

Let’s talk about his accuracy—Namath averaged a remarkably low completion percentage of 50.1 throughout his career.  He also completed fewer than 50 percent seven seasons throughout his career—I think that contradicts the great Bill Walsh’s statement.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Len Dawson the other AFL HOF QB

comp%.....57.1

td/int....239/183

QB rating...82.8

Edited by ZenoRazon

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What division had the best 10 QB's?

Beat

Seahawks...Russell Wilson

Rams....Norm Van Brocklin..Roman Gabriel...Kurt Warner

Niners...Y.A. Tittle...Joe Montana....Steve Young....John Brodie

Cards....Jim Hart....Carson Palmer

 

 

Edited by ZenoRazon

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5 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

I was always ?????? with Eli,  trying to find some reason to put him in, and I doubt anyone digs into all that, it will be.....won a couple SB' a long career and high on the stat lists, yep....in.

 

Joe Namath is in the HOF because of one game and a big fullback.

 

Lynn Swann is in the HOF because of a few plays in Superbowls.

I think most of us think Eli will be a HOF'er. Just that he doesn't deserve to be. Neither do Swann or Namath. That said, Namath was a much better QB than Eli, he at least was an MVP candidate a couple times. Namath had some dreadful years in there as well, really hurting his career numbers, but that shouldn't diminish the good he did. 

I really don't think there are any QB's who should be in the HOF who aren't, at least among guys who are eligible. Its far from an underrepresented position.

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31 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I think most of us think Eli will be a HOF'er. Just that he doesn't deserve to be. Neither do Swann or Namath. That said, Namath was a much better QB than Eli, he at least was an MVP candidate a couple times. Namath had some dreadful years in there as well, really hurting his career numbers, but that shouldn't diminish the good he did. 

I really don't think there are any QB's who should be in the HOF who aren't, at least among guys who are eligible. Its far from an underrepresented position.

I'd argue about Namath.  I think his candidacy is unique because the impact he specifically had to the NFL/AFL was enormous.

Yes, when you look at his stats now, they look terrible.  But he helped usher in a new style of football that revolutionized how the game was played.  And SBIII remains the singular turning point in the history of the NFL. 

This also may be more anecdotal, but I can't think of an athlete prior to Namath who appealed to women viewers like he did...in any sport.

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7 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

So now statically production doesn’t matter?  Why?

i point out his and Drew Brees career winning percentage is virtually identical  Doesn’t matter.

That at average levels of performance over the next 6 seasons that’ll take him through his age 39 season (like Brees just completed) he’d have close to 75,000 yards & 470 TD’s.  Doesn’t matter.

I have to hand it to you for being persistent.

Look, if Ryan retired today, he is not a HOFer. You are projecting that Ryan will pass for another 28K yards and 175 TDs over the next 6 seasons. That is no given. If he does accomplish that, particularly if that is accompanied by significant honors/awards and/or postseason success, he will be a HOF lock. Will he be a top 20 QB at that point? It's hard to say for sure, given that careers will play for many other QBs during that same span (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, Wilson, Cam, Luck, et al.), plus we will have much more info on which younger QBs have established a HOF career arc.

7 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

That despite having an MVP, a SB appearance and 1 more Conference Championship Game appearance than Philip Rivers and almost the exact per game production (where he has slight edges in most)...Rivers has been the better QB...doesn’t matter.

It is fairly close, but, statistically, Rivers has been a better QB to date. Ryan has the best season between them, his MVP season, but Ryan has no 3 year stretch that compares with Rivers' 2008-2010 stretch.

Now on to context. Ryan is more athletic than Rivers, but both of them are QBs that need good pass protection to be successful. Ryan has had a huge edge in the quality of his pass protection, as I pointed out earlier in the thread. Frankly, the absolute terrible pass blocking Rivers has had throughout his career makes his accomplishments much more impressive.

Rivers has also played within a dysfunctional organization, with poor ownership, poor front office, and generally poor coaching. The Falcons organization probably isn't at the top of the league in any of those things, but have generally been stronger at all of them than the Chargers organization.

I think Ryan has a great chance to surpass Rivers by the end of his career. But, today, he ranks behind Rivers.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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18 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

See my....hmmmmmmmmmm?

I;m not totally sold on the guy either.

But we can't totally ignore....

He;s number  8 all time TD passes

Number 6 all time yards.

2 time SB champ.

And if plays another season he will Fran Tarkenton in TD passes,

With so many in the HOF with far inferior numbers, yep....hmmmm?

 

Is playing a lot of games at an average level criteria for getting into the HOF?

He is 9th in QB games played and played in a passing era which is why he is 8th in TD passes and 6th in yards. As Anarchy has stated, he is a compiler. That does not mean he is the best at his position.

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38 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

I'd argue about Namath.  I think his candidacy is unique because the impact he specifically had to the NFL/AFL was enormous.

Yes, when you look at his stats now, they look terrible.  But he helped usher in a new style of football that revolutionized how the game was played.  And SBIII remains the singular turning point in the history of the NFL. 

This also may be more anecdotal, but I can't think of an athlete prior to Namath who appealed to women viewers like he did...in any sport.

I'd agree that is why Namath is in. Super Bowl 3 was arguably the most important football game ever played, that or the Colts/Giants NFL championship game. 

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8 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

So now statically production doesn’t matter?  Why?

i point out his and Drew Brees career winning percentage is virtually identical  Doesn’t matter.

That at average levels of performance over the next 6 seasons that’ll take him through his age 39 season (like Brees just completed) he’d have close to 75,000 yards & 470 TD’s.  Doesn’t matter.

That despite having an MVP, a SB appearance and 1 more Conference Championship Game appearance than Philip Rivers and almost the exact per game production (where he has slight edges in most)...Rivers has been the better QB...doesn’t matter.

I guess I just don’t get it...so what matters?  Fans subjective eye-test?

 

Statistical production does matter;l it just doesn't mean everything. 

If you think Ryan is even close to as good as Drew Brees...good grief, I am tapping out of this conversation now, because I don't think you can be convinced otherwise.   

Edited by Ghost Rider

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48 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

It is fairly close, but, statistically, Rivers has been a better QB to date. Ryan has the best season between them, his MVP season, but Ryan has no 3 year stretch that compares with Rivers' 2008-2010 stretch.

Well if we use Ryan's most recent 3-year stretch 2016-2018, here is what I see statistically.

YPA: Rivers 8.62/Ryan 8.36
Comp %: Ryan 68.0%/Rivers 65.5%
TD%: Rivers 6.11%, Ryan 5.57%
INT%: Ryan 1.56%, Rivers 2.19%

...and to your point - if one of those three seasons for Ryan resulted in an MVP and SB appearance...I'd say that Ryan's 3-year stretch compares quite favorably.

48 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Look, if Ryan retired today, he is not a HOFer. You are projecting that Ryan will pass for another 28K yards and 175 TDs over the next 6 seasons.

I'd agree.   That said, he just finished his Age 33 season.  And whether I've done anything to sway/change your opinion on Ryan...I don't know.  But to your point, it's generally agreed that Drew Brees is a 13 second discussion in the HOF room on his first year of eligibility slam dunk.  Correct?  And coming into this conversation, Ryan feels like he's considered an HOF afterthought at this juncture of his career.  But here is how Ryan & Brees compare career wise after their respective Age 33 seasons.

Yards: Ryan 46,720/Brees 45,919
Completion Rate: Ryan 65.34%/Brees 65.62%
YPA: Ryan 7.53/Brees 7.47
TD's: Ryan 295/Brees 324
INT's: Ryan 133/Brees 165

Yes...Brees does have the ring.  Unfortunately, Kyle Shanahan couldn't call run plays in the 4th quarter.  But it feels like the delta production wise is ridiculously slim between Ryan/Brees thru their Age 33 season...yet someone up above said Ryan is more comparable to Stafford.  The production delta and the perception delta IMO are way offline.

48 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Rivers has also played within a dysfunctional organization, with poor ownership, poor front office, and generally poor coaching. The Falcons organization probably isn't at the top of the league in any of those things, but have generally been stronger at all of them than the Chargers organization.

Rivers got 2 years to 'learn the business' so to speak...ironically behind Brees.  Ryan stepped into as dysfunctional a franchise situation as you could imagine.  And took a team a lot of folks thought would take years to rebuild...and as it related to the 2008 season particularly, thought would not win a game, and went to the playoffs 4 of the next 5 years.

Ultimately, I think my beef comes down to how easily Ryan is dismissed in these types of conversations. 

Edited by TheDirtyWord

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10 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

Statistical production does matter;l it just doesn't mean everything. 

If you think Ryan is even close to as good as Drew Brees...good grief, I am tapping out of this conversation now, because I don't think you can be convinced otherwise.   

I don't think you answered the question.

So if statistical production does matter, and winning percentage does matter...and Drew Brees is a slam-dunk lock for the HOF, how is the below statement from you possible?

...people "discredit" Matt Ryan as a top tier QB because he is NOT a top tier QB.  Unless you want to expand the top tier, which I think is usually 4-5 guys, he is by no stretch of the imagination a top tier QB, not even this past season when he was great statistically.

Are you saying it's just not possible that Ryan is drastically underrated and that his credentials haven't really been looked at via this level of detail to show that perhaps his perception standing as one of the NFL's elite QB's should be raised a bit?

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49 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:
1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

It is fairly close, but, statistically, Rivers has been a better QB to date. Ryan has the best season between them, his MVP season, but Ryan has no 3 year stretch that compares with Rivers' 2008-2010 stretch.

Well if we use Ryan's most recent 3-year stretch 2016-2018, here is what I see statistically.

YPA: Rivers 8.62/Ryan 8.36
Comp %: Ryan 68.0%/Rivers 65.5%
TD%: Rivers 6.11%, Ryan 5.57%
INT%: Ryan 1.56%, Rivers 2.19%

...and to your point - if one of those three seasons for Ryan resulted in an MVP and SB appearance...I'd say that Ryan's 3-year stretch compares quite favorably.

From 2008-2010:

  • Rivers led the league in YPA all 3 seasons.
  • He led the league in TDs and TD% in 2008.
  • He led the league in passer rating in 2008, was #3 in 2009, and #2 in 2010.
  • He led the league in ANY/A in 2008 and was #2 in both 2009 and 2010. (Among other reasons ANY/A differs from passer rating, it accounts for sacks.)
  • He led the league in passing yards and passing yards per game in 2010.
  • He had 6 4Q comebacks and 9 game winning drives.

He did this despite the poor pass blocking referenced earlier in the thread. Ryan's pass blocking was much better in any 3 year stretch you choose.

2010 was particularly impressive with context:

  • #1 WR VJax held out and missed 5 games and was not in football shape for all of the 5 games he played.
  • #2 WR Floyd missed 5 games and started just 9 games.
  • #3 WR Crayton missed 7 games.
  • #4 WR Davis missed 9 games.
  • #1 TE Gates missed 6 games and played through multiple injuries in other games.
  • #2 TE Naanee missed 6 games.
  • #1 RB (rookie) Mathews missed 4 games and started just 9 games.
  • The starting OL missed 12 games. PFF graded the Chargers' pass blocking as #26 in the league.
  • Rivers completed passes to 17 different players. He completed TDs to 11 different players.
  • The Chargers were #2 in points scored and #1 in yards.
  • Unfortunately, the Chargers were 9-7 and missed the playoffs, so Rivers' performance was largely ignored by the masses.
Edited by Just Win Baby

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34 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

From 2008-2010:

  • Rivers led the league in YPA all 3 seasons.
  • He led the league in TDs and TD% in 2008.
  • He led the league in passer rating in 2008, was #3 in 2009, and #2 in 2010.
  • He led the league in ANY/A in 2008 and was #2 in both 2009 and 2010.
  • He led the league in passing yards and passing yards per game in 2010.
  • He had 6 4Q comebacks and 9 game winning drives.

He did this despite the poor pass blocking referenced earlier in the thread. Ryan's pass blocking was much better in any 3 year stretch you choose.

2010 was particularly impressive with context:

  • #1 WR VJax held out and missed 5 games and was not in football shape for all of the 5 games he played.
  • #2 WR Floyd missed 5 games and started just 9 games.
  • #3 WR Crayton missed 7 games.
  • #4 WR Davis missed 9 games.
  • #1 TE Gates missed 6 games and played through multiple injuries in other games.
  • #2 TE Naanee missed 6 games.
  • #1 rookie RB Mathews missed 4 games and started just 9 games.
  • The starting OL missed 12 games. PFF graded the Chargers' pass blocking as #26 in the league.
  • Rivers completed passes to 17 different players. He completed TDs to 11 different players.
  • Despite all that, the Chargers were #2 in points scored and #1 in yards.
  • Unfortunately, the Chargers were 9-7 and missed the playoffs, so Rivers' performance was largely ignored by the masses.

We can likely agree that between the two players and six combined seasons, that Ryan has 1) the #1 spot on this ranking and 2) the #6 spot on this ranking.  Ultimately, we can get into the impressive semantics/conditions of each for what they both accomplished - for OL play in 2018, Ryan lost his starting LG & RG early in the season and his RT was benched for poor play - Devonta Freeman missed the season for the most part.  I'd say losing Freeman for 14 games was a bigger 'wrench' into the season than Ryan Mathews for 4, no?  It's tough to lead a lot of 4th quarter comebacks say in a season where for more than half of it, you're blowing everybody out (2016).  In 2016, Ryan completed passes to 15 players and threw TD's to 13 (an NFL record).  including the playoffs, Ryan led opening drive TD's for the seasons last 9 games.

Via QB rating metrics, both traditional and QBR, Ryan's 2018 season (108.1 and 68.1) was better than Rivers in any season from 2008-2010.  Via those metrics which largely try and take into account the entire 'puzzle' per se...Ryan's 2nd best season was better than Rivers best season.

It's not to take away from Rivers great stretch during this time.  But your original statement was that Ryan's 3-year stretch doesn't 'compare'...and that sounds to me like a statement of '6 of one (Rivers), quarter of a dozen of another' (Ryan) statement vs '6 of one, half a dozen of another'.

Edited by TheDirtyWord

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How can Matt Ryan's 2018 season be better than Rivers' best season when he wasn't even better than Rivers in 2018?? 

1 hour ago, TheDirtyWord said:

I don't think you answered the question.

So if statistical production does matter, and winning percentage does matter...and Drew Brees is a slam-dunk lock for the HOF, how is the below statement from you possible?

...people "discredit" Matt Ryan as a top tier QB because he is NOT a top tier QB.  Unless you want to expand the top tier, which I think is usually 4-5 guys, he is by no stretch of the imagination a top tier QB, not even this past season when he was great statistically.

Are you saying it's just not possible that Ryan is drastically underrated and that his credentials haven't really been looked at via this level of detail to show that perhaps his perception standing as one of the NFL's elite QB's should be raised a bit?

Anything is possible. 

Serious question: how many QB's would you put in the top tier (which comprises the QB's I would call elite)?  And do you actually think Matt Ryan is in that tier? 

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4 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

What division had the best 10 QB's?

Beat

Seahawks...Russell Wilson

Rams....Norm Van Brocklin..Roman Gabriel...Kurt Warner

Niners...Y.A. Tittle...Joe Montana....Steve Young....John Brodie

Cards....Jim Hart....Carson Palmer

 

 

Well let's see, I'm going to use some shorthand here, so it doesn't take all day to calculate, so All-Pros will take priority, and then Pro Bowls, so longevity not at those levels is meaningless, and it should eliminate the need to adjust for eras, as those spots are earned alongside their peers. With that said:

AFC East: Brady, Marino, Griese, Kemp, Kelly, Namath, Parilli, Morrall, Bledsoe, O'Brien= 13 All-Pros and 56 Pro Bowls

AFC North: Graham, Anderson, Esiason, Bradshaw, Sipe, Roethlisberger, Dalton, F.Ryan, Palmer, Plum= 11 All-Pros and 32 Pro Bowls

AFC South: Manning, Unitas, Blanda, Jones, Morrall, Moon, Luck, McNair, Brunell, Schaub= 13 All-Pros and 43 Pro Bowls

AFC West: Dawson, Fouts, Gannon, Lamonica, Manning, Stabler, Kemp, Mahomes, T.Rote, Elway= 14 All-Pros and 41 Pro Bowls

NFC East: Baugh, Jurgensen, Tittle, Van Brocklin, Thiesmann, McNabb, Aikman, Staubach, Manning, Romo= 10 All-Pros and 45 Pro Bowls

NFC North: Luckman, Favre, Rodgers, Layne, Tarkenton, Starr, Lujack, Cunningham, Culpepper, Moon= 16 All-Pros and 41 Pro Bowls

NFC South: Brees, Ryan, Newton, Vick, Chandler, Bartkowski, Manning, Winston, Garcia, Delhomme= 3 All-Pros and 28 Pro Bowls

NFC West: Young, Montana, Waterfield, Warner, Tittle, Gabriel, Brodie, Hadl, Van Brocklin, Wilson= 15 All-Pros and 35 Pro Bowls 

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Since we apparently are fixated on Matt Ryan, here are the collected stats of the Top 20 QBs (in terms of total passing yards) since he came into the league in 2008. At least that way we have a baseline for comparison.

			GP	COMP	ATT	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	RATE
Drew Brees		173	4666	6769	53248	7.87	386	151	102
Philip Rivers		175	3910	6002	47697	7.95	329	153	97.1
Matt Ryan		174	4052	6201	46719	7.53	295	133	94.8
Eli Manning		175	3816	6166	44577	7.23	283	175	87.3
Ben Roethlisberger	160	3706	5730	44510	7.77	278	136	94.6
Tom Brady		157	3711	5735	44143	7.7	320	85	100.5
Aaron Rodgers		158	3526	5434	42623	7.84	337	79	103.5
Matthew Stafford	141	3372	5405	38514	7.13	237	129	88.4
Joe Flacco		163	3499	5671	38245	6.74	212	136	84.1
Carson Palmer		121	2613	4238	31134	7.35	189	124	86.7
Jay Cutler		132	2671	4317	30633	7.1	198	141	84.9
Peyton Manning		106	2657	3976	30322	7.63	233	98	98.8
Alex Smith		135	2649	4143	29412	7.1	175	70	91.1
Cam Newton		123	2321	3892	28469	7.31	182	107	86.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick	134	2484	4120	28397	6.89	186	139	82
Andy Dalton		120	2443	3923	28103	7.16	188	104	88.8
Tony Romo		102	2274	3478	27069	7.78	193	85	97.3
Russell Wilson		112	2095	3261	25624	7.86	196	63	100.3
Andrew Luck		86	2000	3290	23671	7.19	171	83	89.5
Matt Schaub		100	1822	2831	21612	7.63	118	75	90.4

 

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10 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

How can Matt Ryan's 2018 season be better than Rivers' best season when he wasn't even better than Rivers in 2018?? 

Anything is possible. 

Serious question: how many QB's would you put in the top tier (which comprises the QB's I would call elite)?  And do you actually think Matt Ryan is in that tier? 

If we're comparing 2018's...

Ryan: 422 Completions, 608 Attempts, 4924 Yards, 35 TD's 7 INT's.
Rivers: 347 Completions, 508 Attempts, 4308 Yards, 32 TD's 12 INT's

...those are  quite comparable.  Now obviously, LAC had a better season than ATL.  That said...we've already established that Ryan's career winning percentage is better than Rivers'  (If Ryan goes 16-18 the next 2+ seasons, he'll be where Rivers' is at today).  And we've also looked at both players' career per game stats which resulted in a striking similarity.

But these were your words 'Rivers isn't event debatable...' and my contention is that not only is it debatable, I think a strong case can be made for Ryan having an edge.  In the 2010's, Rivers has been a .500 QB.  Ryan's gone 82-62 this decade...

Your words were Ryan isn't even a Top 5 QB this decade.  Who would you put above him after Brady/Brees/Rodgers?  You can't include Manning since he'll be retired for half the decade.  You'd be surprised by how well he stacks up,

Big Ben?  Check out their production since 2010; total and per game. 

Luck?  Besides the fact that the most 'seasons he'll be able to get in during the 2010's will be 6.5...I can't say that he warrants inclusion above Ryan.  Not when Ryan has appeared in a 1) SB 2) 2 NFCCG and 3) won and MVP.

But your words were 'he's basically just another Matthew Stafford...'

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22 minutes ago, TheDirtyWord said:

If we're comparing 2018's...

Ryan: 422 Completions, 608 Attempts, 4924 Yards, 35 TD's 7 INT's.
Rivers: 347 Completions, 508 Attempts, 4308 Yards, 32 TD's 12 INT's

...those are  quite comparable.  Now obviously, LAC had a better season than ATL.  That said...we've already established that Ryan's career winning percentage is better than Rivers'  (If Ryan goes 16-18 the next 2+ seasons, he'll be where Rivers' is at today).  And we've also looked at both players' career per game stats which resulted in a striking similarity.

But these were your words 'Rivers isn't event debatable...' and my contention is that not only is it debatable, I think a strong case can be made for Ryan having an edge.  In the 2010's, Rivers has been a .500 QB.  Ryan's gone 82-62 this decade...

Your words were Ryan isn't even a Top 5 QB this decade.  Who would you put above him after Brady/Brees/Rodgers?  You can't include Manning since he'll be retired for half the decade.  You'd be surprised by how well he stacks up,

Big Ben?  Check out their production since 2010; total and per game. 

Luck?  Besides the fact that the most 'seasons he'll be able to get in during the 2010's will be 6.5...I can't say that he warrants inclusion above Ryan.  Not when Ryan has appeared in a 1) SB 2) 2 NFCCG and 3) won and MVP.

But your words were 'he's basically just another Matthew Stafford...'

Yes I can.  Even with Manning having just four great seasons in the 00's, he is still a top 5 QB this decade (just like Terrell Davis was a top 5 RB in the 90's despite only playing four seasons and four games in '99). 

I would also put Russell Wilson and Cam Newton above Ryan.  I know you love statistical comparisons, which will be hard to do since Ryan will have better passing numbers overall, but those guys will destroy him in rushing yards.  Luck probably isn't quite there yet, so if push came to shove, I'd put Ryan slightly above him.  

"Another Matthew Stafford" might have been a bit harsh, as he is better than Stafford, but he is closer to Stafford than he is Brees or Brady.  For the most part, Ryan has comfortably been in that 8-12 range when talking about the best QB's in the NFL (2016 being the exception), and I think most people would agree with me on that. 

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15 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

Well, here is the thing...as mentioned earlier in the thread, the last 8 years of Ryan’s career he’s averaged 4582 passing yards and 28.6 TD’s.  This has some great years (2016, 2018) and some not so great years (2013, 2017).  He just exited his Age 33 season.

Now Brees just turned 40 meaning that Ryan has 6 more years/seasons until he’d be at that stage of his career.  But assuming those averages...and with QB’s now being protected like they are, it’s not unreasonable or aggressive to extrapolate the averages I just mentioned...Ryan would turn 40 with...

74,212 Passing Yards (Brees has 74,437)

468 Passing TD’s (Brees has 520)

Brees career winning percentage is 58.9%.  Ryan’s is 58.6%.

....and Ryan has done this without a ‘Sean Payton’... or a base offense with 4 WR on the field all the time.  Not all mitigating circumstances should count against him, right?

But I think that’s the answer I’m still waiting on.  I agree Brees is a no-doubt first ballot HOF’er.  While Ryan struggles to even gain HOF consideration at this stage.  I get that he’s got a decent part of career to go...but career trajectory being what it is, it still feels like most believe Ryan shouldn’t seriously be considered.  Odd.

I honestly never even considered it but now that you brought it up I’ll agree with you that it is strange. 

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Since we apparently are fixated on Matt Ryan, here are the collected stats of the Top 20 QBs (in terms of total passing yards) since he came into the league in 2008. At least that way we have a baseline for comparison.


			GP	COMP	ATT	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	RATE
Drew Brees		173	4666	6769	53248	7.87	386	151	102
Philip Rivers		175	3910	6002	47697	7.95	329	153	97.1
Matt Ryan		174	4052	6201	46719	7.53	295	133	94.8
Eli Manning		175	3816	6166	44577	7.23	283	175	87.3
Ben Roethlisberger	160	3706	5730	44510	7.77	278	136	94.6
Tom Brady		157	3711	5735	44143	7.7	320	85	100.5
Aaron Rodgers		158	3526	5434	42623	7.84	337	79	103.5
Matthew Stafford	141	3372	5405	38514	7.13	237	129	88.4
Joe Flacco		163	3499	5671	38245	6.74	212	136	84.1
Carson Palmer		121	2613	4238	31134	7.35	189	124	86.7
Jay Cutler		132	2671	4317	30633	7.1	198	141	84.9
Peyton Manning		106	2657	3976	30322	7.63	233	98	98.8
Alex Smith		135	2649	4143	29412	7.1	175	70	91.1
Cam Newton		123	2321	3892	28469	7.31	182	107	86.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick	134	2484	4120	28397	6.89	186	139	82
Andy Dalton		120	2443	3923	28103	7.16	188	104	88.8
Tony Romo		102	2274	3478	27069	7.78	193	85	97.3
Russell Wilson		112	2095	3261	25624	7.86	196	63	100.3
Andrew Luck		86	2000	3290	23671	7.19	171	83	89.5
Matt Schaub		100	1822	2831	21612	7.63	118	75	90.4

 

So during the prime of his career, Eli's QB rating ranks 15th out of 20, better than only Flacco, Palmer, Cutler, Newton, and Fitzpatrick. Yep, Hall of Fame QB.

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1 hour ago, Ghost Rider said:

Yes I can.  Even with Manning having just four great seasons in the 00's, he is still a top 5 QB this decade (just like Terrell Davis was a top 5 RB in the 90's despite only playing four seasons and four games in '99). 

I would also put Russell Wilson and Cam Newton above Ryan.  I know you love statistical comparisons, which will be hard to do since Ryan will have better passing numbers overall, but those guys will destroy him in rushing yards.  Luck probably isn't quite there yet, so if push came to shove, I'd put Ryan slightly above him.  

"Another Matthew Stafford" might have been a bit harsh, as he is better than Stafford, but he is closer to Stafford than he is Brees or Brady.  For the most part, Ryan has comfortably been in that 8-12 range when talking about the best QB's in the NFL (2016 being the exception), and I think most people would agree with me on that. 

I'll have to disagree with you on Manning.  Not playing games is not playing games...and Manning really had but 4 seasons of note in the 2010's.  Considering they both won MVP's this decade with all-time performance seasons, I'd have to think that Ryan's consistent high level play over what will amount to a 10 year period outdoes Peyton's 4.5 years despite some great years in that time.

Wilson is great.  Tremendously efficient, versatile, diverse...that one is tough to argue against other than I would put Ryan at the same tier level, but could understand putting Wilson above Ryan within that tier.  At the same time...if you asked the question 'Is Russell Wilson on track to have a HOF career'...the undeniable answer would be yes.  And yet in this thread, we see that is not the case with Ryan.

And as far as Cam...he doesn't even have a 60% career completion rate and averages fewer than 3600 yards passing/year.  TD wise (including rushing - he produces at the same rate as Ryan), and yardage (including rushing) he's significantly behind pace.  Not to mention, we're starting to see his body break down already.  Other than his rushing ability...there isn't an area of his game he can claim superiority.  It's not that Ryan has better passing numbers than Cam...it's actually that Cam's aren't even that good.  Wilson's are.

As for Stafford v Brees and who Ryan more closely resembles...further up the thread I lay out pretty clearly how similar Ryan/Brees careers have been thru their Year 33 seasons.  So recognizing that Brees deserves top spot, it's still interesting that you're clinging to the notion that Ryan's more similar to Stafford.  To me, if Stafford is a 0 and Brees is a 10, Ryan is much closer to 8/9 than 1/2.

 

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3 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

for OL play in 2018, Ryan lost his starting LG & RG early in the season and his RT was benched for poor play

PFF ranked Ryan's 2018 pass blocking at #12 in the NFL on the full season, compared to #31 for Rivers in 2018 (and an average of ~#23 from 2008-2010). IMO that trumps all other context. :shrug: 

At this point, I am going to bow out of the Matt Ryan discussion. I have already said that if he performs the way you project, he is in the HOF. I don't agree that he has been equal to or better than Rivers, and I don't really agree that Ryan is underrated; I think he is generally rated right about where he should be. I will just agree to disagree with you on those things.

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2 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

PFF ranked Ryan's 2018 pass blocking at #12 in the NFL on the full season, compared to #31 for Rivers in 2018 (and an average of ~#23 from 2008-2010). IMO that trumps all other context. :shrug: 

At this point, I am going to bow out of the Matt Ryan discussion. I have already said that if he performs the way you project, he is in the HOF. I don't agree that he has been equal to or better than Rivers, and I don't really agree that Ryan is underrated; I think he is generally rated right about where he should be. I will just agree to disagree with you on those things.

Fair enough...we’ve had a good discussion.

But OL wise, Quinn actually publicly skewered it in his year-end presser stating he felt good about 2 of the 5 spots’ for what it’s worth.

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20 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

Hmmmm?

2 SB wins

4 pro bowls

7 4000 seasons

10 3500 yards or more

7 25 or more TD;s

5  90 or more QB Rating

 

Pro bowls?  Again Andy Dalton has 3 of them.  Again, he has never been in the top 5 QB's in the league in ANY season of his career.  If you can't be in the top 5 in a single season how can you be considered an all time great?  He's the poster child for compilers.

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16 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

It was a well know fact the AFL sucked on defense, to only complete 50.1 of his passes there.....weak.  He had 11 seasons where he had more INT than TD. the final count....173TD/220INT....that's bad. His career passer rating 65.9 sucks in any era.

Why "Broadway Joe" Namath Should Not Be in the Hall of Fame

Chris Young July 7, 2010

Joe Namath should not be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Most Hall of Fame quarterbacks have thrown for 200-plus touchdowns.

Throughout his 13-year career with the New York Jets, Namath threw more interceptions (220) than touchdowns (173). He averaged 17 interceptions a year and eclipsed 20 five times in his career.

Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh stated that Namath was "the most beautiful, accurate, stylish passer with the quickest release I've ever seen."

Let’s talk about his accuracy—Namath averaged a remarkably low completion percentage of 50.1 throughout his career.  He also completed fewer than 50 percent seven seasons throughout his career—I think that contradicts the great Bill Walsh’s statement.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Len Dawson the other AFL HOF QB

comp%.....57.1

td/int....239/183

QB rating...82.8

It's Hall of Fame, not Hall of Stats. Of course Namath belongs. 

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19 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

I'll have to disagree with you on Manning.  Not playing games is not playing games...and Manning really had but 4 seasons of note in the 2010's.  Considering they both won MVP's this decade with all-time performance seasons, I'd have to think that Ryan's consistent high level play over what will amount to a 10 year period outdoes Peyton's 4.5 years despite some great years in that time.

Wilson is great.  Tremendously efficient, versatile, diverse...that one is tough to argue against other than I would put Ryan at the same tier level, but could understand putting Wilson above Ryan within that tier.  At the same time...if you asked the question 'Is Russell Wilson on track to have a HOF career'...the undeniable answer would be yes.  And yet in this thread, we see that is not the case with Ryan.

And as far as Cam...he doesn't even have a 60% career completion rate and averages fewer than 3600 yards passing/year.  TD wise (including rushing - he produces at the same rate as Ryan), and yardage (including rushing) he's significantly behind pace.  Not to mention, we're starting to see his body break down already.  Other than his rushing ability...there isn't an area of his game he can claim superiority.  It's not that Ryan has better passing numbers than Cam...it's actually that Cam's aren't even that good.  Wilson's are.

As for Stafford v Brees and who Ryan more closely resembles...further up the thread I lay out pretty clearly how similar Ryan/Brees careers have been thru their Year 33 seasons.  So recognizing that Brees deserves top spot, it's still interesting that you're clinging to the notion that Ryan's more similar to Stafford.  To me, if Stafford is a 0 and Brees is a 10, Ryan is much closer to 8/9 than 1/2.

 

You think Ryan's MVP season was an all-time performance (which implies it was an all-time great performance)?  Good grief.  Okay, I am officially tapping out of this conversation. :lol: 

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27 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

You think Ryan's MVP season was an all-time performance (which implies it was an all-time great performance)?  Good grief.  Okay, I am officially tapping out of this conversation. :lol: 

For a single season? Without a doubt...🤷‍♂️

Numbers are there for you to look up.

Edited by TheDirtyWord

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22 hours ago, jabarony said:

It's Hall of Fame, not Hall of Stats. Of course Namath belongs. 

Of course. Broadway Joe is one of the most famous QBs of all time.

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On 1/18/2019 at 9:33 AM, Elevencents said:

That Eli is a Top 10  or HOF QB. 

Did you miss my top 10 list?

Eli is a ....maybe top 20?...and I made that clear.

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Joe Namath

TDS

173

INT

220

YDS

27,663

RTG

65.5

 

Those are not HOF worthy, and if he'd lost that SB there is no SB.

Both Cliff Branch and Otis Taylor have superior numbers over Lynn Swann,  so why is Swann in the HOF and they aren't? And, Taylor did have a HUGE SB play.

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On 1/18/2019 at 8:19 AM, travdogg said:

Well let's see, I'm going to use some shorthand here, so it doesn't take all day to calculate, so All-Pros will take priority, and then Pro Bowls, so longevity not at those levels is meaningless, and it should eliminate the need to adjust for eras, as those spots are earned alongside their peers. With that said:

AFC East: Brady, Marino, Griese, Kemp, Kelly, Namath, Parilli, Morrall, Bledsoe, O'Brien= 13 All-Pros and 56 Pro Bowls

AFC North: Graham, Anderson, Esiason, Bradshaw, Sipe, Roethlisberger, Dalton, F.Ryan, Palmer, Plum= 11 All-Pros and 32 Pro Bowls

AFC South: Manning, Unitas, Blanda, Jones, Morrall, Moon, Luck, McNair, Brunell, Schaub= 13 All-Pros and 43 Pro Bowls

AFC West: Dawson, Fouts, Gannon, Lamonica, Manning, Stabler, Kemp, Mahomes, T.Rote, Elway= 14 All-Pros and 41 Pro Bowls

NFC East: Baugh, Jurgensen, Tittle, Van Brocklin, Thiesmann, McNabb, Aikman, Staubach, Manning, Romo= 10 All-Pros and 45 Pro Bowls

NFC North: Luckman, Favre, Rodgers, Layne, Tarkenton, Starr, Lujack, Cunningham, Culpepper, Moon= 16 All-Pros and 41 Pro Bowls

NFC South: Brees, Ryan, Newton, Vick, Chandler, Bartkowski, Manning, Winston, Garcia, Delhomme= 3 All-Pros and 28 Pro Bowls

NFC West: Young, Montana, Waterfield, Warner, Tittle, Gabriel, Brodie, Hadl, Van Brocklin, Wilson= 15 All-Pros and 35 Pro Bowls 

BRAVO~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dude,...wow!

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On 1/18/2019 at 8:37 AM, Spike said:

Talk about hijacking a thread...this Matt Ryan stuff...

In my threads there is no such thing if within reason.

No Hockey talk, etc.

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On 1/18/2019 at 8:00 PM, jabarony said:

It's Hall of Fame, not Hall of Stats. Of course Namath belongs. 

Namath won the most important game in NFL history.  That alone got him into the HOF.

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27 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Namath won the most important game in NFL history.  That alone got him into the HOF.

It was the NFL’s Ali/Liston moment...

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Namath won the most important game in NFL history.  That alone got him into the HOF.

You got it, if he'd lost that game no HOF.

And the real star of that game FB Matt Snell nowhere close to the HOF.

i wonder if he'd said.....I will run all over the Colts, they can't stop me, I see 120 yards at least, I GURANTEE IT....would have helped?

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