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AquaBliss

FanDuel Conference Weekend

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Ok ok I know it’s only on Sunday but it just sounds cooler to say ‘weekend’.  No comments from me this time since you guys will just fade all my picks and end up winning GPP’s ;)

I already miss football, only 8.5 months until 2019 season starts.

 

 

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Well, I got out a little more than I put in last week, so, guess I'm changing my mind about doing a few LU's this week. One thing I need to remember, which was brought up for the Thanksgiving day slate, is that with a short slate like this, good idea to leave some money on the table.  

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So anyone guessing between how the carries will be split between Gurley and CJ Anderson?  Based on Anderson's stellar performance last week I would almost expect half/half.  Not sure whether Gurley is worth paying more for than CJ at this point.

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1 hour ago, AquaBliss said:

So anyone guessing between how the carries will be split between Gurley and CJ Anderson?  Based on Anderson's stellar performance last week I would almost expect half/half.  Not sure whether Gurley is worth paying more for than CJ at this point.

I am fading CJ in gpp as his ownership will probably be too high. My Rams sneak pick this week is not a RB. 

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6 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

So anyone guessing between how the carries will be split between Gurley and CJ Anderson?  Based on Anderson's stellar performance last week I would almost expect half/half.  Not sure whether Gurley is worth paying more for than CJ at this point.

Isn't NO rush D decent?  Not sure either are worth it as they force Goff to win the game as he hasn't looked that great over the last several weeks.  I guess that means Gurley could catch a couple but not sure about the gpp upside yet.  On both sites I would lean WR in the flex this week, but still staring at this.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Isn't NO rush D decent?  Not sure either are worth it as they force Goff to win the game as he hasn't looked that great over the last several weeks.  I guess that means Gurley could catch a couple but not sure about the gpp upside yet.  On both sites I would lean WR in the flex this week, but still staring at this.  

All in on Gurley again. Dance with the one who brought you.

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23 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

So anyone guessing between how the carries will be split between Gurley and CJ Anderson?  Based on Anderson's stellar performance last week I would almost expect half/half.  Not sure whether Gurley is worth paying more for than CJ at this point.

I think the Rams will need everything they can get out of Gurley, and he'll get 95% of the carries. 

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21 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Isn't NO rush D decent?  Not sure either are worth it as they force Goff to win the game as he hasn't looked that great over the last several weeks.  I guess that means Gurley could catch a couple but not sure about the gpp upside yet.  On both sites I would lean WR in the flex this week, but still staring at this.  

One of the contrarian GPP ideas I'm kicking around is 2 TE's; Kelce/Gronk or Kelce/Everett or Higbee. Definitely a big long shot, but, I'd like to think that Gronkowski will catch another TD sooner or later. KC just might be that opportunity. 

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8 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

One of the contrarian GPP ideas I'm kicking around is 2 TE's; Kelce/Gronk or Kelce/Everett or Higbee. Definitely a big long shot, but, I'd like to think that Gronkowski will catch another TD sooner or later. KC just might be that opportunity. 

TE seems like the ideal spot to go contrarian this week. I think you almost have to fade Kelce in gpp and hope that one of the other TE options gets a score to two. 

I also think CJ Anderson turns back into a pumpkin this week. Gurley all day. Kamara and Ingram too. 

 

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Michel an obvious play to me, and I think playing any other TE but Kelce is a huge risk

 

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I think the fact that all you guys want to fade CJ Anderson is a reason to play him :)  This is a good sample size to determine contrarian picks.

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20 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

I think the fact that all you guys want to fade CJ Anderson is a reason to play him :)  This is a good sample size to determine contrarian picks.

CJ should be around 10-15% ownership. So for gpp, he actually could be a good play. Gurley will be around 45%. 

Highest owned player will probably be Michael Thomas at well over 50%, followed by Kelce and Kamara.

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Hope no one minds if I piggyback with some DraftKings talk rather than make a thread- rolling out 20 $1 lineups like i did last week. Last week I had a good finish (79/178k) but had way too much marlon Mack. This week it’s a guy in the same price range- Edelman. He’s in 16/20 lineups and I’m having a hard time replacing him with options like Demarcus Robinson or josh Reynolds. I have those guys in a few cards, but don’t want too much. 

Hard to not play kelce or gronk vs the other options. Paying up for kelce in about 1/2 of my lineups but then am forced to get creative at wr usually. 

How will these games play out? NE pounds Michel and uses short passing game to keep KC offense on the sideline? Will the cold weather affect what KC does? 

You can make a case that LA and NO could both try to play ball control to keep the other off the field. More likely to be a shootout- I’m probably targeting more flyers from this game like Reynolds or trequan Smith, kirkwood, Higbee, watson etc. I’m having a hard time putting these guys in. 

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Ya I also think a lot of ground game in NE/KC and a lot of air game in NO/LAR... 

Couldn’t believe I could actually fit Brees + Michel + D. Williams + M. Thomas + Kelce in the same lineup. That’s gotta be worth a few hundred K at least ;)

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In the 'for what it's worth' department ………… Ben Watson/TE & Keith Kirkwood/WR for the Saints will be out. Kirkwood with a calf injury & Watson with appendicitis. 

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If I remembering right, NE has limited Kelce a bit in their games vs him.  1td in 4 games, and nothing over 60yds I believe? 

Their MO is to put Gilmore on the #2 option and then double the #1.  So do they treat Kelce as the #1 and leave Hill one on one? 

I THINK on a small slate you have to plant your flag on who to fade, especially if they might be higher owned. Kelce is a good spot to decide on since the other TE options are trashy.  Rbs like Gurley and Kamara are next.  

My gut initial thought is fade Kelce and Rams rbs, and use Wr in flex.  

Was thinking core of Kamara, Thomas, Hill, Cooks and seeing what else fits after that.  

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Hope no one minds if I piggyback with some DraftKings talk rather than make a thread- rolling out 20 $1 lineups like i did last week. Last week I had a good finish (79/178k) but had way too much marlon Mack. This week it’s a guy in the same price range- Edelman. He’s in 16/20 lineups and I’m having a hard time replacing him with options like Demarcus Robinson or josh Reynolds. I have those guys in a few cards, but don’t want too much. 

Hard to not play kelce or gronk vs the other options. Paying up for kelce in about 1/2 of my lineups but then am forced to get creative at wr usually. 

How will these games play out? NE pounds Michel and uses short passing game to keep KC offense on the sideline? Will the cold weather affect what KC does? 

You can make a case that LA and NO could both try to play ball control to keep the other off the field. More likely to be a shootout- I’m probably targeting more flyers from this game like Reynolds or trequan Smith, kirkwood, Higbee, watson etc. I’m having a hard time putting these guys in. 

I think a pod had a good point with the weather.  If it is close to 0 degrees, it slants to NE and their rushing game.  If it's in the 20s, it goes a bit more to kc.

We saw last week confirmation that NE wants to pound the ball, especially in the RZ.  I think it would be contrarian to use 2 of the NE rbs in the same LU if you think they have a shot at controlling things.  

Going to start on my DK gpps now. 

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Does Hill come into play with watson out? Or the other guy whose name I don’t remember, is he a better blocker? Bump ginn or Smith? Still think you have to pay up for kelce....

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46 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Does Hill come into play with watson out? Or the other guy whose name I don’t remember, is he a better blocker? Bump ginn or Smith? Still think you have to pay up for kelce....

Hope that isn't the case, as I am 100% on fade of him.  I might be throwing in a showdown LU with him as a cpt as a hedge.  Don't have much Gurley either.  Needless to say, I don't have a ton of money going on this idea today.   

I found FD's pricing to be frustratingly inflexible when trying to fit in different things.  I just put my $ on my Pats and cross my fingers for a tight game there tonight, and a shootout without the RBs in NO.  My gpp is:  Goff - White/Michel - Thomas/Cooks/Woods - Hill - Ginn - NE.  

DK has a lot more flexibility, so I had more fun over there.    There I did what I posted above.  I have a core of Hill/Thomas/Cooks/Hill, and built a handful of LUs around them.  I will  probably put a couple WTF ideas together that is completely off of that idea this am as well, and put together a couple cheap showdown ideas too.  Probably have about $10 on DK today.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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On 1/20/2019 at 8:07 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Brutal day for me, but whatever- Pats in the SB yet again! 

Yeah, me too. I had three $10 tickets. Burkhead rescued me with a TD that netted back $19. 

On to next year!

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