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1.01 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Cjw_55106
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Amused to Death
Footballguy
As someone who has the 1.01, I'm holding till after the Senior Bowl at the earliest.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
That seems to be the view right now by almost everyone so you have to hold it until after the combine and maybe until after the nfl draft, eventually someone will emerge but right now nobody is giving anyone the benefit of the doubt
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I have the 1.01 in one league and the 1.05 in another. I feel the same (tepid) excitement about both.
Meaning, the 1.01 doesn't seem to have much more value than the 1.05.
But there's reasons to be at least a little excited about a guy like Harry and a couple others.
Meaning, the 1.01 doesn't seem to have much more value than the 1.05.
But there's reasons to be at least a little excited about a guy like Harry and a couple others.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Last two years have spoiled us dyno wise.....this class is nothing to write home about i do like harry though....
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I could be misremembering, but wasn't '19 supposed to be the draft people wanted to stockpile picks? I certainly earned my 1.01 
I didn't trade or tank for it, but I thought '19 was supposed to be better than '18. I know its very WR-heavy right now but I expect that to change after the combine & NFL draft.
I didn't trade or tank for it, but I thought '19 was supposed to be better than '18. I know its very WR-heavy right now but I expect that to change after the combine & NFL draft.Got 1.1 and 1.3 in drafts and I guess I'm going against the consensus because I put a much higher value on the 1.1. Simple reasoning of it just takes one guy to emerge to excite me vs needing 3.
But with both of those picks unless I get an offer I can't refuse not really looking to move them, don't see much benefit vs waiting till the draft is over and allowing landing spots and general rookie fever to catch on. On the other end of the first round spectrum I've been sending out tons of offers on late 1's trying to get 2020#1's, hoping the allure of now appeals to someone. That's been a failure so far and I think will only change after the NFL draft.
One more thing to add is that most of my leagues are FFPC(TE premium). This thread is about 1.1 but in terms of the strength of the first round it's a totally different discussion in TE premium leagues vs those that are not.
But with both of those picks unless I get an offer I can't refuse not really looking to move them, don't see much benefit vs waiting till the draft is over and allowing landing spots and general rookie fever to catch on. On the other end of the first round spectrum I've been sending out tons of offers on late 1's trying to get 2020#1's, hoping the allure of now appeals to someone. That's been a failure so far and I think will only change after the NFL draft.
One more thing to add is that most of my leagues are FFPC(TE premium). This thread is about 1.1 but in terms of the strength of the first round it's a totally different discussion in TE premium leagues vs those that are not.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Next year is always a better class than this year.I could be misremembering, but wasn't '19 supposed to be the draft people wanted to stockpile picks? I certainly earned my 1.01
I don't recall ever thinking last year this draft class was going to be a good one. Rodney Anderson was my #1 player entering the year and he lost a ton of value so it got worse, but never considered it strong.
Just because a one or two picks work out does not change a draft and I mention that because in single PPR leagues this draft class stacks up about on par with the Ezzekiel Elliot draft, just this one has no Elliot. Just because Michael Thomas emerged as a mid to late first and Reek Hill as a 5th round or later pick does not change the fact that was a weak class, when a draft is weak in solid first round options its weak. It's not like you draft the field, you got to call your shot when it's time and those players were not overly coveted, Hill often would not get drafted and was on a lot of leagues waiver wires to start the year.
I think most takes on draft classes are accurate. For example the last two years were billed a super deep RB classes.
Last year's draft class was solid but not that deep. I'd bet my life on the 2020 draft class smashing this years class. Resistance to this draft being weak is futile, it is what is and got to hope a few player emerge from the pack. And like I said in an earlier post, it's a different discussion on strength of round one into early round two depending on how your league values the TE because that might be the best position in the entire draft.
One last thing is I do think the takes on QB's in the draft are usually wrong. That's one where it seems like every year the next year is better then this year. I remember the Watson/Mahomes/Trubisky draft being billed as weak at QB for example. But in my leagues QB's are not that valued and this is more of a real life outlook of the draft, not fantasy.
Just because a one or two picks work out does not change a draft and I mention that because in single PPR leagues this draft class stacks up about on par with the Ezzekiel Elliot draft, just this one has no Elliot. Just because Michael Thomas emerged as a mid to late first and Reek Hill as a 5th round or later pick does not change the fact that was a weak class, when a draft is weak in solid first round options its weak. It's not like you draft the field, you got to call your shot when it's time and those players were not overly coveted, Hill often would not get drafted and was on a lot of leagues waiver wires to start the year.
I think most takes on draft classes are accurate. For example the last two years were billed a super deep RB classes.
Last year's draft class was solid but not that deep. I'd bet my life on the 2020 draft class smashing this years class. Resistance to this draft being weak is futile, it is what is and got to hope a few player emerge from the pack. And like I said in an earlier post, it's a different discussion on strength of round one into early round two depending on how your league values the TE because that might be the best position in the entire draft.
One last thing is I do think the takes on QB's in the draft are usually wrong. That's one where it seems like every year the next year is better then this year. I remember the Watson/Mahomes/Trubisky draft being billed as weak at QB for example. But in my leagues QB's are not that valued and this is more of a real life outlook of the draft, not fantasy.
trader jake
Footballguy
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
That draft was a dud beyond Zeke for sure. I managed to get Thomas at the end of the third but unfortunately it was Mike Thomas of the Rams. Laquon Treadwell is still hogging up a spot in my Taxi Squad waiting to be worth bumping up to my active roster. Only productive guy I got out of the draft was Peyton Barber in the 6th round.
As for this year, I have the 1.05 and I couldn't be anymore lukewarm about it although I'm hoping a couple of backs hop into the picture and bump the top tier WR's down to me as I do have a need there (to put it mildly). Seeing a bunch of highly touted WR's on one hand excites me because of the need but then I remember part of the reason I have such a need is because the last time I was in this position to draft a WR I ended up with Laquon Treadwell.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have only started to look at some of these players so far.
It seems to me that there are many good WR this year but not much at RB unlike the last two seasons. This is pretty much what was expected over a year ago, with Harris and Love looking like the best RB for this year.
Using picks at WR tends to take more patience than picks at RB and the bust rate is pretty high. However I think the WR are more valuable in the long term, so I think people with high picks should focus a lot of attention on the WR and building a foundation there.
If you put Derrius Guice in the 2019 draft would he be the 1.01 pick?
If you don't like what you are seeing then use the picks to trade for players like this that you have more confidence in.
It seems to me that there are many good WR this year but not much at RB unlike the last two seasons. This is pretty much what was expected over a year ago, with Harris and Love looking like the best RB for this year.
Using picks at WR tends to take more patience than picks at RB and the bust rate is pretty high. However I think the WR are more valuable in the long term, so I think people with high picks should focus a lot of attention on the WR and building a foundation there.
If you put Derrius Guice in the 2019 draft would he be the 1.01 pick?
If you don't like what you are seeing then use the picks to trade for players like this that you have more confidence in.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure but there’s nobody with enough buzz to generate interest in trading up near the top
Interseptopus
Footballguy
once the NFL draft is over I think the value increases. right now no one knows which wr get excited about because whoever gets drafted by Cleveland or New York Jets is instantly upgraded, but Baltimore is downgraded. a lot of these wrs are close.
if kc drafts Henderson or Jacob's they will be 1.1
so the draft matters the most here
if kc drafts Henderson or Jacob's they will be 1.1
so the draft matters the most here
This, except I will wait till the combine and NFL draft.
Someone will get built up in the combine hype and be overdrafted, creating a 1.1 narrative. Remembering how things stand now, I will happily trade down to anyone with 1.2 - 1.8 that falls for it.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I agree this class doesn't compare to the last two but I think the comparisons to 2016 minus Zeke are overblown. Things dropped off in that draft much quicker than I think they will this year. By the time we got to the 1.05 - 1.10 range in 2016 we were looking at WRs drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL draft and RBs like Booker/Dixon that were drafted in the 4th round. This year when we get there we should still be picking from a group of 1st round WRs and 2nd-3rd round RBs (which has been a nice sweet spot for RBs lately).
I also like to remind people that several of this year's WRs kind of remind me of Corey Davis when he came out in that their hype right now is just mediocre but throughout the offseason it will continue building. Davis was considered a really weak option as the top WR prospect for a class at this time when he came out, and without participating in any offseason action his value just continued to climb and climb until it was quite high entering the draft and even higher after he landed in what was thought to be a good spot.
I also like to remind people that several of this year's WRs kind of remind me of Corey Davis when he came out in that their hype right now is just mediocre but throughout the offseason it will continue building. Davis was considered a really weak option as the top WR prospect for a class at this time when he came out, and without participating in any offseason action his value just continued to climb and climb until it was quite high entering the draft and even higher after he landed in what was thought to be a good spot.
I had 7 players in the FFPC format, 6 in standard PPR I considered worth a first round pick in 2016. And I should clarify that's how I felt post NFL draft, not in January of 2016. So looking at from that angle things did drop off fast in terms of round one worthy players but I was also in 2 leagues were Thomas went 12th so not always the case. Either way I had 6 players in PPR I felt worth a first round pick but only one did I have extreme confidence, which was Elliot of course.
You might have different read or perception on this draft class then I do but I don't think 5 RB's and WR's are going in round one. I'd put that number at 2-3 if I had to guess. I may not be following your point on this one, but only reason I don't see a big dropoff in this draft is there is not a high point to drop from. But I think when you get to pick 5 this year you are likely drafting second round WR's or second/third round RB's. Which is actually not that different from last year except I don't think like last year you are going to have 8 RB's in fairly high demand and that pushed the first and second round WR's back to end to late round one of most drafts. The quality of WR available at pick 10-12 last year is the quality of WR I think you'll be looking at in the 5 pick range this year because the RB's won't push them back.
I feel pretty strongly in FFPC format, due to an incredible TE class, that I'll give more than the 7 players I gave a first round grade to in FFPC in 2016. But in a single PPR I think that number will be close to but likely lower then then the 6 I gave a first round grade in 2016, just without an Elliot type at the top which is why I keep comping this draft to 2016 sans Elliot.
I would respectfully remind you I spent a chunk of time in the predraft process that year disagreeing with you that Davis was a highly sought after prospect and that WR's were going to go high in the draft, which was part of a discussion we kept having that centered around me saying it was to early in January to think Dalvin and Fournette were top two locks. That's how I remember it, correct me if I'm wrong by all means. You might have had Davis as a mediocre prospect, and frankly how you felt about him might be proven correct over time, but at this time in 2016 I considered Davis and Mike Williams as being NFL first round locks that were seen by NFL teams in a lot higher regard then a lot of fantasy owners and I always assumed John Ross would be a first round pick that I'd have little to no interest in fantasy. My point here is I always felt Davis was a big time prospect, not a late riser and even in January that year was heavily focused on Davis and Mike Williams. (and not JuJu)
Now I would add to your point I think you were wanting to make on Davis. I do think there will be players that will rise up big time during the process and draft. But also some that will crater. Just last year I'd say DJ Moore rose a great deal, was usually a late first round pick but he rose up the WR ranks big time. On the flip side this time last year I really liked Mark Walton and a poor combine and crappy post draft landing spot later I wanted nothing to do with him. But in January I'd have taken him over Moore. So if your point was a lot of things will change, I agree, but some change will be negative.
Last thing I'd say is every single class is going to have some major hits. I keep calling that Elliot draft weak after him because of low amount of players I gave a first round grade. But reality is when you think of Thomas, Hill, Elliot, Hunter Henry, and now Derrick Henry it does not seem like such a bad draft at all. When I rank out how I feel about a draft class I"m ranking it how I feel when I'm drafting them or lead up to draft, not how they actually performed when drafted. It might be that I just lowballed 2016, but I think we can all admit if you did not have pick 1 that year it was a struggle to get a good return on your pick.
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One thing to remember about this class compared to others lately. I think a very good WR class and great TE class but they are going to drop to the second because this is probably one of the best and deepest DL classes in quite some time. Half the first round could be Edge or interior Lineman. Add in a better OL than normal also. And while the QBs might not be as good, still a good possibility that 4 go round 1. So some of these WR dropping to round 2 is to be expected with such a deep class in the trenches. I see a few of these RBs being Penny or Michel like who were first round picks last year. No way they go in round 1 of this current draft.
I agree, that no one to move up for. I have pics 3,4, 11, 15, 17 in Superfex, TE premium, IDP league and have no holes in roster and any mock I do makes me pretty happy. Might do the move down from 4 to the 7-10 range with great TE class and someone wanting to get QB but see no reason to move up. Unlike DR. Dan and his plethora of picks, I have the most draft capital in this league. One team sitting with 1, 5, 23. Another with 7, 9, 24, 29. Another with 6, 14, 20, 27. So more spread out. Of course won’t call this league an even league as 3 of 4 of these teams played in semis. So lots of minnows here too like almost every league, I read about on here.
I do think this draft will be hugely situation dependant though and with so many names close in value and no one head and shoulders above, where they go will have great impact on value. Tough year if you are a pre draft draft but things will become much clearer after the NFL draft and pick value will rise. Harry looks good right now but if landing in Baltimore, his value will plummet. Jacobs will have more value than Guice if drafted by KC in round 1. So patience is huge key this year at 1.1.
I agree, that no one to move up for. I have pics 3,4, 11, 15, 17 in Superfex, TE premium, IDP league and have no holes in roster and any mock I do makes me pretty happy. Might do the move down from 4 to the 7-10 range with great TE class and someone wanting to get QB but see no reason to move up. Unlike DR. Dan and his plethora of picks, I have the most draft capital in this league. One team sitting with 1, 5, 23. Another with 7, 9, 24, 29. Another with 6, 14, 20, 27. So more spread out. Of course won’t call this league an even league as 3 of 4 of these teams played in semis. So lots of minnows here too like almost every league, I read about on here.
I do think this draft will be hugely situation dependant though and with so many names close in value and no one head and shoulders above, where they go will have great impact on value. Tough year if you are a pre draft draft but things will become much clearer after the NFL draft and pick value will rise. Harry looks good right now but if landing in Baltimore, his value will plummet. Jacobs will have more value than Guice if drafted by KC in round 1. So patience is huge key this year at 1.1.
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
There are also some guys like Sterling Shepard, Jordan Howard, Kenyan Drake, Will Fuller (when healthy) as well as Wentz and Goff that have been productive at times when given opportunities, or in some cases, when healthy. Any of these guys could next year be solid starters next year, albeit not studs other than the QB's. In addition there were some great IDP players in the early rounds of that draft if you do IDP leagues.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Some good points here that I agree with.
I have looked at some lists of mock drafts so far and things seem all over the place right now, very little consensus. The only thing that all these lists seem to agree about is that there are many top 10 worthy defensive linemen.
I am not seeing the same amount of love for offensive linemen, although there are a few who are considered 1st round picks. Charlie Campbell of Walter Football says this is a weak offensive line class.
As a Vikings fan I have been closely following offensive linemen prospects the past few years and I wish this was a better than average offensive line group, but I am not sure it is.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yep.
With the 1 in one league and the 3 and 5 in a super flex, I'm hoping the class starts getting more hype.
In the superflex, Herbert going back to school hurt a bit, if Murray gets drafted high and looks to play football that helps later in the first (can't see taking him 1 overall with the size and baseball concerns).
There's no Barkley, but put Harry or metkalf in a good situation and their value rises big time. Jacobs and Harris will get plenty of attention - put them in Baltimore and Pittsburgh (Bell leaving) and watch out.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I have 1.01 and this is who I’m deciding between. That league is more of a 3-5 year keeper league so hard to take the chance on WRs. Plus, I think Jacobs and Harris both could be awesome in the right landing spots. This is one of those years that landing spot will dictate the 1.01.-OZ- said:
steelers1080
Footballguy
Just my luck, I've traded for 1st round picks twice in recent years, both end up being 1.01. Missed out on Zeke and Barkley. Got Fournette, which is nice when he actually plays, but that class didn't have a 100% #1 overall like Zeke or Barkley, and this one doesn't either. Everyone is saying that any RB taken by the Chiefs will be the 1.01, but what if it's in the 4th? Harris has played well for them, and they still have Ware, I'm not sure any RB they take will be the bell cow that people seem to be anticipating.
Right now I'm planning on taking N'Keal Harry, but everything could change with the draft. If the top WRs all go to the Raiders, Ravens, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, I don't feel great about it.
Right now I'm planning on taking N'Keal Harry, but everything could change with the draft. If the top WRs all go to the Raiders, Ravens, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, I don't feel great about it.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Personally I see about 4 different players that might be consensus 1.01; Josh Jacobs, N'Keal Harry, AJ Brown, or David Montgomery. Of those 4 I am high on only 1 of them, luke warm on another 2 and kind of average on the 4th. Either way this class will build up steam. I don't put a whole lot of stock into situation (which I probably should change that at least a little), but unless those 4 are death sentence landing spots, I don't see anyone else making a case regardless of someone else landing in a supreme spot.
I can honestly say I feel your pain. I've had good luck trading for picks that ended up being 1.1 , not trading for 1.1 so to speak, but I totally am getting the years wrong. The year Elliot came out I did not have a high pick, got 1.1 the next year and also look like I screwed it up with Fournette. Came back last year and narrowly missed the 1.1, got Guice instead of Barkley at 1.2 and now this year I'm back at 1.1. So close, just wrong years.
As for the Chiefs Ware is a FA and I'm sure where they draft a RB will factor into that evaluation for people. We've seen some later round RB's emerge of course but I've yet to see anyone with the balls to actually pick a 4th or even a third round RB at 1.1.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Possible ones that go 1.01, sure, but I'm talking majority of leagues it probably boils down to those 4. Who would you add? There's some guys I love in the 5-10 range, but they wouldn't be considered for the 1.01 in most leagues.
The reason I would double that list and why I don't agree with the bolded is you asked me to right now list my top 4 I think had best chance I think I'd consider at pick 4 we'd have had one one that was similar, Jacobs. If you and I can't agree right now on who the 4 would be, it's hard for me to think the field is not a lot more wide open then those 4. I'm not trying to work this into attacking your 4 in anyway, not in the slightest as I think those are all viable candidates, I'm just saying if reasonable minds like I'm going to label both of us can't agree it does not seem remotely like it's shaping up as consensus with those 4 as the sole candidates or primary candidates.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
But in past years this far out people already started ranking guys and were excited about their prospects.
This year people are saying "whatever RB lands in KC is the 1.01" and waiting to see landing spots otherwise. It's all about "opportunity" not "talent" wherein other years we were all hoping "talent" met "opportunity".
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Gandalf
Footballguy
I do think jacobs could be that guy this year. Seems like people are waiting for the combine as the next step.
Tony Pauline is not one of my favorites and I'm guessing what he meant to say was 70 of the top 100 players will be on defensive side but the key takeaway here is the thoughts on offensive side of the ball,.
http://draftanalyst.com/shrine-game-practice-final-notes-player-rankings
Staying on the offensive side of the ball, scouts and general managers are complaining this will be one of the worst draft’s for prospects from the scoring side of the ball in a long time. Right now they project as many as 70 of the top 100 players drafted coming from the defensive side of the ball.
http://draftanalyst.com/shrine-game-practice-final-notes-player-rankings
Staying on the offensive side of the ball, scouts and general managers are complaining this will be one of the worst draft’s for prospects from the scoring side of the ball in a long time. Right now they project as many as 70 of the top 100 players drafted coming from the defensive side of the ball.
Gandalf
Footballguy
No doubt it’s a draft with more risk and questions. At the same time, I think there will be a handful of really good players coming out of it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah, I’m not trying to say there will be no good players emerging from this draft at all - that will happen, it’s just that this year just doesn’t have the buzz of past seasons - and I even felt that way during the college season, no one really stood out.Gandalf said:
Zyphros
Footballguy
I would want a Guice, Chubb, Mixon type, but that's probably unrealistic.
I would expect something more along the lines of Kerryon, Sony, Aaron Jones.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Are you asking which RBs we would take in exchange for the 1.01 (assuming we owned it)?
For me that would be a fairly long list:
Todd Gurley
Saquan Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey
Kareem Hunt
LeVeon Bell
Nick Chubb
Melvin Gordon
Leonard Fournette
Joe Mixon
Sony Michel
James Conner
Dalvin Cook
Derrius Guice
After that David Johnson and Kerryon Johnson, would get strong consideration. The only hesitation would be due to age and small sample size respectively.
I'm sure that some RB or WR in this draft will likely be worth more than one of the above players in a year or two but playing the percentages, I'm comfortable with this list.
Normally we could also take into account how the trade value of the pick could increase as we get closer making it a better asset to hold than some of these RBs but in this draft class I'm not convinced that will happen.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Yes that’s what I was asking. Trying to gauge 1.01 value this year. I was thinking it would be right around the Michel level.
What makes you think that values won’t increase closer to the draft this year?
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Finally have the 1.01 (via trade) for the 1st time in 5 years. And dont have a clue what to do with it. Leaning towards trying to move back for multiple picks. Maybe something like 1.05 and a 2020 1st. But not sure anyone else is going to want it either.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Not sure there's that type of player in this draft - but it will likely increase a bit as one of the "top" RBs land in a good spot.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
That’s what I’m hoping. Especially if Jacobs or even Harris though I seem to like him more than most.
The beauty of the 1.1 is it only takes one guy to emerge and most of the time when discussing emerging to 1.1 it's because a RB went in first two rounds to a highly attractive spot.
My poster child example is Leveon Bell. Similar to how Dane Bruger was first person to turn me onto Jacobs and Mayock was the first person to turn me onto Kamara the year that Bell came out it was Bucky Brooks who started getting me excited about him and that was not even until late March when he wrote an article comping him to SJAX and proclaiming him as the best RB in the draft. If anyone wants to go back and hunt threads at that time you'll see that Bell was not in anyone's top 5 in March, rarely inside of anyone's top 10. And I mean just RB's, not overall.
That was a weak looking draft class as well(though in reality it turned out some great players) but at the time it was not considered strong at the top. Second round pick and attractive landing spot later suddenly Bell was a strong and viable top pick. Doug Martin also similar who was not a highly coveted guy this time but got drafted high and became a locked in #2 pick after Trent. His career was not like Bells of course, but I did a startup the year after Martins rookie year and he went 1.2.
Point is neither Bell or Martin were highly coveted players this time but that's where they ended up. Chances are good IMO that at least one RB will emerge similar to these two. Chances get considerably slimmer if you are sitting at like 1.3 IMO.
My poster child example is Leveon Bell. Similar to how Dane Bruger was first person to turn me onto Jacobs and Mayock was the first person to turn me onto Kamara the year that Bell came out it was Bucky Brooks who started getting me excited about him and that was not even until late March when he wrote an article comping him to SJAX and proclaiming him as the best RB in the draft. If anyone wants to go back and hunt threads at that time you'll see that Bell was not in anyone's top 5 in March, rarely inside of anyone's top 10. And I mean just RB's, not overall.
That was a weak looking draft class as well(though in reality it turned out some great players) but at the time it was not considered strong at the top. Second round pick and attractive landing spot later suddenly Bell was a strong and viable top pick. Doug Martin also similar who was not a highly coveted guy this time but got drafted high and became a locked in #2 pick after Trent. His career was not like Bells of course, but I did a startup the year after Martins rookie year and he went 1.2.
Point is neither Bell or Martin were highly coveted players this time but that's where they ended up. Chances are good IMO that at least one RB will emerge similar to these two. Chances get considerably slimmer if you are sitting at like 1.3 IMO.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Could it be Montgomery this year? He’s a good receiver and runner but people are questioning his speed. Didn’t Bell lose a bunch of weight after his college years to get to like 3% body fat early in his NFL career? Players can continue to improve over time too.
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