* Official 2019 Chargers Thread **

Just Win Baby · January 18

2018 season is in the books. New year, new thread.

2018 thread here.

It was a very good season, even though the final game was a disappointment. It was a serious lesson in how much every game matters; one more win might have changed things, since they would have been the #1 seed, with a first round bye, and not having to travel cross country 2 weeks in a row to play in cold weather.

Just Win Baby · January 18

Here is how the offense performed in 2018, per PFR:

Overall:

#28 in offensive plays (945)
#6 in points scored (428 = 26.8 ppg) - up from #13 in 2017 (355 = 22.2 ppg); but it is slightly more improvement than that, since the 2017 team had 5 TDs from defense and special teams, compared to 3 in 2018
#5 in percentage of drives that ending in an offensive score (42.4%)
#11 in yards gained (5962 = 372.6 ypg) - down from #4 in 2017 (6026 = 376.6 ypg)
#3 in yards per play (6.31) - up from #4 in 2017 (5.91)
#13 in first downs gained (338) - down/up from #5 in 2017 (337)
#11T (11th fewest) in turnovers (19) - down from #4T in 2017 (15)
#9 (9th fewest) in percentage of drives ending in a turnover (10%)

This was a very efficient offense, finishing #6 in points and #11 in yards despite being #28 in offensive plays. This is further illustrated by finishing #3 in yards per play and #5 in drive scoring percentage. This is even more impressive given the poor OL play and the injuries to Henry and Gordon.

Having a solid PK made a big impact on these numbers, after having the worst PK performance in the league in 2017. The red zone offense was also much better, scoring TDs on 64.2% of red zone trips, a huge improvement on the team's 46.8% last season.

Unfortunately, Lynn's conservative tendencies did still appear to hinder the offense:

The Chargers were just #16 in 3rd down conversion percentage (39.5%). I'm sure a contributing factor was conservative playcalling on 1st/2nd downs.
The Chargers led the league in 4th down conversion percentage (87.5%)... but on a league low 8 attempts. The other 11 playoff teams went for it an average of 16.5 times in the regular season. This is also odd because the Chargers led the league with 8 2-point conversion attempts and succeeded on 6 of them (75%). If a team is successful on 13 of 16 4th down and 2-point conversions, it suggests that team should go for it more often.

Pass offense:

#24T in pass attempts (512)
#5 in passer rating (104.9)
#7 in completion percentage (348/512 = 68.0%)
#10 in passing yards (4316)
#3 in YPA (8.4)
#8T in passing TDs (32)
#4 in TD percentage (6.3%)
#12T (12th fewest) in interceptions (12)
#17 (17th lowest) in interception percentage (2.34%)
#10T (10th fewest) in sacks (34)
#11 (11th lowest) in sack percentage (6.2%)

In 2017, the Chargers led the NFL in passing yards. In 2018, the passing offense was even better. 4316/32 when #24 in passing attempts is very impressive, and 32/12 TD/interception ratio is better than the team's 28/11 ratio in 2017.

Unfortunately, the pass blocking was a big problem. Per PFF:

In 2017, Rivers was pressured on 222 (37%) of his dropbacks; on those dropbacks, he had 29 throwaways, 9 TDs, 4 interceptions, and 18 sacks, and he was hit as he threw 3 times.
In 2018, he was pressured on 192 (35%) of his dropbacks; on those dropbacks, he had 7 throwaways, 8 TDs, 6 interceptions, and 32 sacks, and he was hit as he threw 7 times. PFF ranked the Chargers pass blocking as #31 in the league, ahead of only Arizona.
The fact that Rivers was sacked and hit more and didn't throw away the ball nearly as much suggests that in 2018 the pressure either came from his blind side or came so fast that he was unable to get rid of the ball, like unblocked pass rushers.

Run offense:

#19 in rushing attempts (399)
#15 in rushing yards (1893)
#7T in rushing TDs (16)
#7 in yards per carry (4.69)

The rushing offense was significantly better this season. In fact, it was the best rushing offense the Chargers have had since 2007, Tomlinson's last All Pro season.

Unfortunately, it was only great until Gordon got hurt. In the first 12 weeks of the season (11 games), the Chargers had a top 10 rushing offense. The rest of the way, including the playoffs, it was bottom 4. No doubt quality of opponents was a factor, but that was not just because of how good the opposing run defenses were, it also exposed that the Chargers run blocking wasn't as good as it had looked most of the season.

Penalties:

Per PFF, the Chargers committed 50 offensive penalties, of which 5 were declined or offset. 28 of those 50 penalties were committed by the OL, almost 2 per game.

Bottom line:

The offense was both efficient and effective, but it was also overly conservative.
The fact that Rivers was as good as he was with the #31 pass blocking unit in the league is yet another testament to how good he is. I SMH at Chargers fans who complain about him. One day in the near future, they will get what they wish for, and I expect that will result in a long drought in quality QB play for the Chargers.

Thoughts?

Edited January 18 by Just Win Baby

Just Win Baby · January 18

By the way, speaking of Chargers pass blocking, I recently posted this in another thread... here is where the Chargers pass blocking ranked in PFF team grades each season since Rivers became a starter:

2006 6T
2007 10
2008 26
2009 18
2010 24
2011 21
2012 27
2013 25
2014 20
2015 32
2016 26
2017 29
2018 31

He had great pass blocking in his first 2 seasons, then abysmal pass blocking for the next 11 seasons. This makes what he has accomplished much more impressive IMO.

ShamrockPride · January 20

Not a Chargers fan, I'm indifferent overall, but I am a fan of many players on the team (a lot of personalities there, seems like a fun locker room to be in), and I hope Phil can get a ring before he hangs em up.

Just curious @Just Win Baby, do you see Mike taking over Allen as the top dog in the passing game anytime soon? He should see the field much more with Ty (most likely leaving), but Hunter returns as well to take targets. I should point out this isn't a fantasy question, I don't own Mike anywhere, I'm just a fan of his and enjoy watching him play

Edited January 20 by ShamrockPride

Just Win Baby · January 20

13 hours ago, ShamrockPride said:

Just curious @Just Win Baby, do you see Mike taking over Allen as the top dog in the passing game anytime soon? He should see the field much more with Ty (most likely leaving), but Hunter returns as well to take targets.

Depends on what you mean by soon. In 2018, Allen (136) had more than twice as many targets as Williams (66), and the TEs combined for just 71.

In 2019, Tyrell will probably be gone, which vacates 65 targets, and Benjamin could also be gone, which would vacate another 24... but Henry averaged 63 targets per 16 games in his first 2 seasons, so the TEs will probably get more targets. And they will have a WR3 and WR4, we just don't know who they will be right now.

Allen is under contract at very team friendly cap figures through the 2020 season. I don't see Williams surpassing him as the WR1 during that time. Williams has already become the top red zone threat, though, and that should continue.

Edited January 20 by Just Win Baby

Just Win Baby · January 20

Here is how the defense performed in 2018, per PFR:

Overall:

#22T in opponent offensive plays (981)
#8 in points allowed (329 = 20.6 ppg) - but that includes 4 TDs scored by opposing defenses and special teams; so really the defense gave up less than 19 ppg
#10 in percentage of opponent drives that ending in an offensive score (33.7%)
#9 in yards allowed (5339 = 333.7 ypg)
#12 in yards allowed per play (5.44) - up from #4 in 2017 (5.91)
#10 in first downs allowed (311)
#16T in turnovers forced (20)
#17 in percentage of opponent drives ending in a turnover (11.8%)
#18 in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed (39.1%)
#16T in 4th down conversion percentage allowed (55.0%)
#5T in percentage of TDs allowed on opponent drives into the red zone (50.0%)

This defense did not live up to its potential or expectations. Even at the end of the season, it seems that perception was that the defense was better than it really was. But it gave up more yards and a lot more points than last season. One reason for that was a dropoff in turnovers forced from 27 to 20.

Obviously, injuries had a significant impact:

CB Verrett may have been the starting outside CB opposite Hayward, but he missed the entire season.
Starting WLB White missed 13 games.
Starting DT Liuget missed 10 games.
Starting DE Bosa missed 9 games.
Starting MLB Perryman missed 7 games.
CB Trevor Williams, the starting outside CB opposite Hayward after Verrett's injury (and who may have started over Verrett anyway), missed 7 games.
Starting DT Mebane missed 4 games.
WLB/MLB Brown, who became a starter after injuries to White and Perryman, missed the final game.

That is a lot of missed games from talented players.

The red zone TD percentage allowed illustrates that this was a classic "bend, don't break" defense, which appears to be Bradley's general philosophy.

Pass defense:

#18 (18th fewest) in opponent pass attempts (548)
#9 in opponent passer rating (89.1)
#14 in opponent completion percentage (64.1%)
#9 in opponent passing yards (3646)
#9 in opponent YPA (7.1)
#12 in opponent passing TDs (23)
#11 in opponent TD percentage (4.2%)
#15T in interceptions (13)
#16 in interception percentage (2.37%)
#19T in sacks (38)
#11 in sack percentage (6.5%)

In 2017, the Chargers were top 5 in most of these pass defense categories. In 2018, the passing defense dropped off. The injuries mentioned above were a significant factor, but it wasn't just that. Hayward was elite last season, and his play dropped off. But the biggest problem was at FS. Addae, who played well at SS last season, was moved to FS this season to accommodate moving James to SS. Addae was terrible in that role, and it really hurt the pass defense. It was a frustration that the coaches kept playing him there. He arguably cost the team the first Baltimore loss, by whiffing on his responsibility on the 68 yard TD pass... and that cost the Chargers the #1 overall seed in the AFC. :thumbdown:

Run defense:

#11 (11th fewest) in opponent rushing attempts (395)
#9 in rushing yards allowed (1693)
#6T in rushing TDs allowed (11)
#12 in yards per carry allowed (4.29)

After allowing the second most rushing yards and the highest ypc in 2017, the rushing defense was significantly better this season. Some of this is presumably due to game script, and some is presumably due to the impact of James.

Penalties:

Per PFF, the Chargers committed 53 defensive penalties, of which 3 were declined or offset. The only player who really stands out is Ingram, who was called for 11 penalties, with 1 declined.

Bottom line:

As posted above, this defense did not live up to its potential or expectations. That had to do primarily with the high number of missed games, and, to a lesser degree, with playing players out of position, notably Addae at FS. Fortunately, it seems unlikely that level of concentrated injuries will continue, and the team should be able to make some roster changes to help assemble a group that better fits the defensive scheme.

Thoughts?

Just Win Baby · January 22

Here is how the Chargers special teams performed in 2018:

Placekicking:

#20 in field goal percentage (82.8%)
- But this was a Sturgis problem corrected when the team finally replace him with Badgley:
  - Sturgis: 9/13
  - Badgley: 15/16 - only miss from 52 yards
#31 in extra point percentage (83.7%)
- Again, a Sturgis problem:
  - Sturgis: 9/15
  - Badgley: 27/28
Tied with 6 other teams for the lowest number of 50+ yard FGs made (1)

Kickoff returns:

#13 in yards per kickoff return (23.3)
0 TDs

Punt returns:

#8 in yards per punt return (10.5)
1 TD

Punting:

#32 in yards per punt (42.6)
#32 in net yards per punt (38.5)
#22 in percentage of punts inside the 20 yard line (34.43%)
#14T (14th fewest) in percentage of punts resulting in touchbacks (6.56%)
1 punt was blocked

Punt returns against:

#22 in yards per punt return allowed (9.2), but that is a bit misleading... on the first punt of the season, they allowed a 91 yard punt return TD, meaning they allowed an average of 6.1 yards per punt return the rest of the season
1 TD allowed

Kickoff returns against:

Allowed by far the most kickoff returns in the league (61, next highest total was 42), which reflects on Badgley's inability to kick the ball deep
#9 in yards per kickoff return allowed (21.7), which is good... but, unfortunately, the depth of the kickoffs was a big contributor to opponents average starting field position at their own 29.1 yard line, which was tied for #23 in the league
0 TDs allowed

Overall:

The team was good at returns and at kick and punt coverage, with the exception of Hill's TD on the first punt of the season.
The PK performance was bad again until the team replaced Sturgis, but, once they did, Badgley was a huge upgrade. His kickoff depth is a negative, though.
The punting was a complete disaster. Kaser was bad and replaced midseason with Jones, who was essentially just as bad. The team will be in the market for a punter this offseason.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · January 22

Sigh......what a bitter disappointment...

Bucky86 · January 22

Not sure how much of that was just Belichick being Belichick, but the D was severely overmatched after looking great against the Ravens.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · January 22

43 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

Not sure how much of that was just Belichick being Belichick, but the D was severely overmatched after looking great against the Ravens.

the team wasn't ready, they kept the def exactly the same had no answer for white or Edelman. cant play scared and back and zone vs brady. need to get in those guys faces and chuck em, make em work.....disgusting really how poorly the chargers played....makes me wanna puke...and good as the game plan was vs the ravens, they just had zero answers vs nepats

Just Win Baby · January 23

Free agents and my thoughts on them (green means I think the team should keep them; yellow means I am undecided; and red means I think they should be gone):

UFAs:
- WR Tyrell Williams
  - Solid player, but I expect his market value to be too high for the Chargers to keep him, given his role as #3 WR and #5 target behind WR1 Allen, WR2 Mike Williams, TE1 Henry, and RB1 Gordon.
  - I think the Chargers should and will let him walk.
- WR Geremy Davis
  - Though I expect both Tyrell and Benjamin to be gone, I don't see Davis being good enough to be the WR3 and probably not the WR4 either.
  - However, he is a good special teams player and should be cheap, so I think the team should and will re-sign him to a minimal contract.
- TE Antonio Gates
  - I have mixed feelings about Gates. They needed him after Henry's injury, and he played well... and he is obviously a sentimental fan favorite... but he would be TE3 behind Henry and Green and isn't capable of playing special teams... not sure that is worth another $2M+ contract.
  - I could see this going either way.
- DT Brandon Mebane
  - He just turned 34 and his play has slipped since the Chargers signed him in 2016.
  - I think the Chargers need to move on.
- DT Damion Square
  - The Chargers had 23 players who played 50 or more snaps on defense, and PFF graded Square #22 out of that group, ahead of only rookie DT Jones.
  - I think the Chargers need to move on. Worst case, they can get the same performance for less money, but hopefully they can upgrade.
- DT Darius Philon
  - Philon had his best season yet and turns 25 next week.
  - The defensive interior of the Chargers is a disaster right now... above I recommended that the Chargers should move on from both Mebane and Square and noted that rookie DT Jones had a terrible season. On top of that, DT Liuget is set to count for a massive cap hit of $9.5M in 2019, and could be released as a result.
  - Given all that, it is imperative that the team re-sign Philon.
- ILB Denzel Perryman
  - He has missed 24 of 66 games in his 4 seasons, including 18 of 34 games in the past 2 seasons.
  - He is a good run defender, but has never been strong in coverage, and his tackling has been surprisingly poor.
  - I think the Chargers need to move on.
- ILB Hayes Pullard
  - Pullard was terrible in 2017, but he played much better in 2018.
  - He has more experience than most of his teammates in Bradley's system, and he is 26 years old.
  - His original cap hit in 2018 before he was waived was $705K. I think the Chargers should re-sign him at a price as close to that as possible, particularly given my belief that they should move on from Perryman.
- OLB Kyle Emanuel
  - Emanuel did not play well in 2018, and he isn't really a good fit for Bradley's defense.
  - The team drafted his successor (Nwosu) in 2018, and I think they should let Emanuel walk.
- CB Jason Verrett
  - He has missed 57 of 82 games in his 4 seasons and effectively hasn't played a healthy game since 2015.
  - Picking up Verrett's 5th year option remains one of the worst decisions of Telesco's tenure. He shouldn't repeat it by signing him to any contract, unless it is a minimum salary contract with heavy incentives tied to playing time and performance. My preference is to let him walk.
- FS Adrian Phillips
  - Phillips played well in 2018, though I think at times how well has been overstated. That said, he played well enough that I would like to have him return.
  - The question is at what price? I think the Chargers should sign him if they can do so for a reasonable contract. I'm not quite sure what his market value is, so not sure what "reasonable" means here.
- S Jaylen Watkins
  - Watkins tore his ACL in August and never played a down for the Chargers in 2018. It is hard to know what role he might have earned given the team's struggle at FS this season, so it is hard to judge whether or not he should be back. If so, he should be reasonably cheap. I am willing to assume whatever decision the team makes will be the right one.
- K Nick Rose
  - The Chargers signed Rose to handle kickoffs in the playoffs. This is a reflection on Badgley's inability to get enough depth on his kickoffs, but it is not worth burning a roster spot for a kickoff specialist.
  - The Chargers should let him walk.
- P Donnie Jones
  - It was a ridiculous decision to bring Jones in, thinking he could help fix Sturgis's performance, as if Kaser's holding was the problem.
  - Jones was the worst regular punter in the league and should be replaced.
RFAs:
- CB Trevor Williams
  - He did not play nearly as well this season before he got hurt as he did in 2017.
  - The team should bring him back and let him compete with Davis for the starting CB spot across from Hayward.
ERFAs:
- G Cole Toner
  - Toner did not play a snap in 2018 and appears to be a practice squad player at best. It really doesn't matter if he is back on the practice squad or not.
- WR Artavis Scott
  - Scott showed some potential before he got hurt in the preseason finale and went on IR. It isn't clear if his injury truly warranted IR or if the Chargers stashed him there.
  - He should be back to compete for a WR4/WR5 spot with a healthy amount of special teams snaps, but he is unlikely to be an impact player if he makes the roster.
- DE Isaac Rochell
  - Rochell emerged as a rotation player with upside in his second season in 2018. In 536 defensive snaps, which was just over 51% of the defensive snaps, he had 5 sacks, 6 TFL, 7 QB hits, and 1 interception.
  - He will be back and in the DL rotation.

In addition to the free agents, these players could be cap casualties:

DT Corey Liuget
- Discussed above. Given the situation at DT, it would be preferable if the team could renegotiate his contract, even if via a contract extension that makes his 2019 cap extension more team friendly. No way he should be back for a $9.5M cap hit in 2019, but I am optimistic that he and the team can reach a compromise.
WR Travis Benjamin
- Benjamin has been quite a disappointment since he was signed. He has disappointed at both WR and PR. He had just 24 targets this season, so the team clearly did not need him as anything other than insurance, and he is too expensive to carry just for that purpose.
- He is scheduled to have a $6.5M cap hit in 2019, but he can be released with $1.25M in dead cap money in 2019. Cutting him to save $5.25M seems appropriate.
S Jahleel Addae
- Addae had performed as a solid SS in 2016 and 2017, but was a disaster at FS in 2018. But he won't be going back to SS, since that is James' position now.
- He is scheduled to have a $6M cap hit in 2019, but he can be released or traded with $1M in dead cap money in 2019.
- I would like to think the Chargers could trade him to a team that needs a SS for something, even if only a 6th round pick. Failing that, I think he should be released.

Edited February 5 by Just Win Baby

Just Win Baby · January 23

A new punter in town: Ty Long

Sounds like Long will compete to be the punter next season, with the added bonus that he may be able to handle kickoffs instead of Badgley. I hope he is good enough that Telesco will not feel compelled to use a late draft pick on a punter and/or sign a relatively expensive veteran.

Nick Vermeil · January 23

Please post some worthwhile information JWB.

Edited January 23 by Nick Vermeil

Just Win Baby · January 24

3 hours ago, Nick Vermeil said:

Please post some worthwhile information JWB.

I’ll try to do better.

Just Win Baby · January 24

Based on my post on free agents and cap casualties, here is my view of what the roster looks like right now:

Offense (24):
- QB (2) - Rivers, Smith
- RB (4) - Gordon, Ekeler, Jackson, Newsome
- FB (1) - Watt
- TE (3) - Henry, Green, Gates
- WR (5) - Allen, Mike Williams, Davis, Cantrell, Scott
- OL (9) - LT Okung, LG Feeney, C Pouncey, RG Schofield, RT Tevi, G Lamp, C Quessenberry, T Crabtree, G Toner
Defense (23):
- Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Rochell, Lanier
- Interior DL DL (4) - Philon, Liuget, Jones, McGill
- LB (5) - WLB White, MLB Brown, SLB/OTTO Nwosu, Pullard, Dzubnar
- CB (6) - LCB Hayward, RCB Williams, SCB King, Davis, Facyson, Richards
- S (4) - SS James, FS Jenkins, Phillips, Watkins
Special Teams (3):
- PK - Badgley
- P - Long
- LS - Windt

IMO:

The positions I highlighted in green do not need to be addressed this offseason. (I realize some would disagree about QB since the team doesn't have a long term successor.)
The depth at the positions I highlighted in yellow needs to improve.
The starters and depth at the positions I highlighted in red need to improve. These positions should be offseason priorities.
The players I highlighted in orange seem the most at risk for not making the final roster. Most of them are pretty bad, and it would be unfortunate to have to rely on most of them to step in for another injured player.

24 players on offense, 26 on defense, and 3 on special teams are what I would project, so this list is short by a few players on D. I would hope to add 2 more interior DL and a LB to fill out this roster.

The Chargers' needs this offseason are OL, FS, and depth, particularly at DL and WR. Of course, this is making assumptions about certain players being re-signed and restructured. For example, interior DL would be red if I was not assuming both Philon and Liuget will be back.

Somehow it seems like these are the exact same needs the team had entering last offseason... and the offseason before that...

Thoughts?

Edited January 25 by Just Win Baby

Just Win Baby · January 24

Per Spotrac, the Chargers have about $28M in available 2019 cap space at this time. Adjustments:

Releasing or trading Benjamin and Addae will free up another $10.25M.
I hope they will restructure Liuget and save another $5M or so.
I am certain they will extend Rivers, but I will assume that his 2019 cap hit will remain about the same as under his current contract.
Re-signing Philon (~$7.5M), Phillips (~$3.5M), Trevor Williams (~$3M), Gates (~$2.5M), Watkins (~$900K), Geremy Davis (~$900K), Pullard (~$800K), Scott (~$650K), Toner (~$650K), and Rochell (~$600K) would take about $21M, though some of these guys will presumably get pushed off the roster by other offseason additions.
They will have to sign their draft picks and reserve a bit of money for practice squad and IR. I will be conservative and call that stuff $10M.

Using these numbers, which admittedly carry a huge amount of room for error, suggests that the team has around $12M to work with. I'd like to see them sign veterans at FS (1), interior DL (1, again assuming Philon and Liuget are back), and OL (2). This would free them up to draft a DL in the first round; DL is very deep in the first round this year, so they should be able to get a very good player.

Thoughts?

Edited March 3 by Just Win Baby

Despyzer · February 8

On 1/19/2019 at 9:16 PM, ShamrockPride said:

Just curious @Just Win Baby, do you see Mike taking over Allen as the top dog in the passing game anytime soon?

I'm no JWB, but I think we'll see MW become a much more important end-zone target this next season, but he doesn't have nearly the complete skill set that Keenan has. As long as that distinction is so apparent, Rivers will continue to favor Allen when they need a first down.

Despyzer · February 21

2019 Chargers Draft Tracker 3.0

Gr00vus · February 21

I don't know exactly when in the draft or perhaps via free agency, but they have to address both lines. If they want to extend Rivers's career, it's imperative he get better protection. If they're really going to try and rush just 4 so often, those Defensive Tackles need to be much better at occupying multiple OLs.

*When I type D-T-s (without the hyphens) the board software is automatically converting it to "President Trump" when it creates my post. What the heck?

Edited February 21 by Gr00vus

Just Win Baby · February 22

Since my last post, the Chargers have made a few moves:

On 1/22/2019 at 8:41 PM, Just Win Baby said:

DT Corey Liuget

Discussed above. Given the situation at DT, it would be preferable if the team could renegotiate his contract, even if via a contract extension that makes his 2019 cap extension more team friendly. No way he should be back for a $9.5M cap hit in 2019, but I am optimistic that he and the team can reach a compromise.

Telesco announced the team will not exercise Liuget's 2019 option, making him a free agent. That saves $8M in 2019 cap space. Telesco said the team is open to a possible return in the future, but I don't expect that. I think they would have worked that out before the announcement if that was truly desired by the team. As posted, my preference would have been for the team to retain him at a lower salary and cap hit, but perhaps he wasn't open to that. Or perhaps the team was ready to move on after his injuries and PED suspension.

On 1/22/2019 at 8:41 PM, Just Win Baby said:

S Jaylen Watkins

Watkins tore his ACL in August and never played a down for the Chargers in 2018. It is hard to know what role he might have earned given the team's struggle at FS this season, so it is hard to judge whether or not he should be back. If so, he should be reasonably cheap. I am willing to assume whatever decision the team makes will be the right one.

The Chargers re-signed Watkins to another one year deal. I haven't seen anything about contract terms, but I assume it is reasonable. I hope this doesn't mean that Telesco is prepared to go into 2019 with the same plan at FS as last year...

On 1/22/2019 at 8:41 PM, Just Win Baby said:

WR Artavis Scott

Scott showed some potential before he got hurt in the preseason finale and went on IR. It isn't clear if his injury truly warranted IR or if the Chargers stashed him there.

He should be back to compete for a WR4/WR5 spot with a healthy amount of special teams snaps, but he is unlikely to be an impact player if he makes the roster.

The Chargers re-signed Scott to a one year deal. Again, I haven't seen anything about contract terms, but I assume it is reasonable.

Just Win Baby · February 22

Reassessing the Chargers offseason needs:

1. They only have 2 interior DL under contract for 2019 – Justin Jones and T.Y. McGill. Both of them played really poorly in 2018, and between them they only played about 470 snaps. They need at least 5 interior DL on the final roster, and Jones and McGill should be the last two guys in that rotation (if both make the final roster).

2. The Chargers need new starters at 2-3 OL positions – LG, RG, and RT. And C Pouncey is a UFA after 2019. If Feeney, Lamp, and Scofield can between them account for 1 starter and 2 depth positions, that reduces the need to 2 – the other G position and RT.

3. The Chargers need a starting FS. Addae was terrible in that role this season, and there is no other candidate on the roster, assuming the team does not want to move James or King into that role. I very seriously doubt that either Jenkins or Watkins is an adequate answer. The lack of a quality FS this season arguably cost the Chargers the #1 seed in the AFC and may have cost them a Super Bowl appearance. It is not a position to overlook.

Those are the top priorities. But also:

4. LBs Perryman, Emanuel, and Pullard are UFAs. If the team does not sign a LB, they have only 4: WLB White, WLB/MLB Brown, and SLB/OTTO Nwosu, along with Dzubnar. But Dzubnar is on the team to play special teams, not defense… and he could be a cap casualty, anyway. If healthy, I think White, Brown, and Nwosu are good enough, especially considering all the nickel and dime defense the Chargers play… but there is currently no depth, and both White and Brown missed games last season due to injury.

5. WR Tyrell Williams is almost certainly gone, and WR Benjamin should be a cap casualty. That currently leaves WRs Artavis Scott, Geremy Davis, and Dylan Cantrell as WRs 3-5 in some order. That group may have some level of potential (yet to be seen on offense, though Davis is very good on special teams), but I don’t see a contending team going into the season without a better WR3 than those guys.

That is a lot of issues. More than likely can be filled this offseason, meaning some of these positions will remain subpar.

Just Win Baby · February 22

From ‘I don’t want to feel like I’m wasting away’: Inside Forrest Lamp’s tumultuous season:

Quote

Why Lamp rarely played is still unclear. The organization told Lamp it was because the offensive line maintained a strong chemistry, though some players and team staffers believed Lamp’s lackluster performance at practice kept him off the field...

Lamp said he “really, really” wanted to play and, when he hadn’t by late October, the guard said he and his agent, Erik Burkhardt, discussed a possible trade. Burkhardt phoned Chargers general manager Tom Telesco “to figure out what was going on.” Lamp didn’t want to be traded — “I love it here … I don’t want to leave” — but he understood the realities of the league and his shrinking window of opportunity to show he had fully healed. He needed to know if the organization that drafted him still wanted to be the organization of his future...

Lamp told The Athletic the call went like this: Telesco reiterated to Burkhardt that Lamp wasn’t playing because of the current offensive line’s chemistry, not his performance, and said the team wanted to keep Lamp.

If Lamp didn't play, even 21+ months removed from his injury, because his performance in practice didn't justify him getting snaps over the likes of Schofield, Feeney, and Tevi, Lamp seems likely to end up as a bust.

If, on the other hand, Lamp showed in practice that he was indeed better than one or more of those other guys, but the coaching staff did not play him to avoid disrupting OL chemistry, that is one of the dumbest coaching decisions I have ever heard, and it may have cost the Chargers a Super Bowl appearance. I'd like to believe Lynn and his staff are smarter than this, but then we have the evidence of the staff being loyal to Addae and trotting him out at FS every game last season despite his awful play at that position.

I'm not sure which to believe, but either one is cause for concern.

Edited February 22 by Just Win Baby

Just Win Baby · March 3

Per Spotrac, the Chargers currently have 55 players under contract for 2019.

Spotrac does not have salary data for Watkins, since terms of his 1 year contract have not been released. Last year, the Chargers signed Watkins to a 1 year contract for $880K. Without having any data, I am going to assume his new 1 year contract is 10% higher -- $968K.

We also know the team has 7 draft picks, so there will be 7 more players added to the roster from the draft.

Here is a list of those players and draft picks, along with their current 2019 cap hits:

QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
OLB Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
WR Travis Benjamin $6,500,000
SS Jahleel Addae $6,000,000
RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
S Derwin James $2,815,671
ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
ILB Nick Dzubnar $1,922,500
G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
S Jaylen Watkins $968,000 (est.)
Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
DT Justin Jones $835,016
S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
FB Derek Watt $752,422
OLB Kyzir White $733,610
S Desmond King $714,998
Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
T Sam Tevi $685,447
Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
TE Sean Culkin $649,000
RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
CB Michael Davis $645,000
G Spencer Drango $645,000
QB Cardale Jones $645,000
DE Anthony Lanier $645,000
WR Vince Mayle $645,000
RB Troymaine Pope $645,000
C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
K Michael Badgley $570,000
WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
RB Justin Jackson $570,000
OLB Tre'Von Johnson $570,000
RB Detrez Newsome $570,000
CB Jeff Richards $570,000
G Trenton Scott $570,000
LB Kyle Wilson $570,000
Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
T Zachary Crabtree $500,000
DE Patrick Afriyie $495,000
WR Justice Liggins $495,000
K Ty Long $495,000
WR Andre Patton $495,000
TE Austin Roberts $495,000
WR Artavis Scott $495,000
S Arrion Springs $495,000

I'm not going to try to identify the external free agents Telesco will sign, but I will assume that he re-signs these internal free agents for these amounts:

UFA DT Darius Philon $7,500,000 - guessing at his market value
UFA S Adrian Phillips $3,500,000 - guessing at his market value (and hoping the Chargers let him walk if it takes more than this to re-sign him)
RFA CB Trevor Williams $3,095,000 - assume the team gives him a second round tender; this is the 2019 second round tender amount
UFA TE Antonio Gates $2,500,000 - assume Gates takes a $1M pay cut to return
UFA DT Damion Square $2,200,000 - assume a 10% raise over last season
UFA WR Geremy Davis $902,000 - assume a 10% raise over last season
UFA LB Hayes Pullard $775,500 - assume a 10% raise over last season
ERFA DE Isaac Rochell $610,500 - assume a 10% raise over last season

That is 70 players for 53 roster spots, without accounting for external free agents. That means at least 17 players on the first list above will not make the final roster. I assume these players will not make it:

Travis Benjamin - cap casualty
Jahleel Addae - cap casualty
Sean Culkin - assuming the team only keeps 3 TEs and assuming the team brings Gates back, Culkin is #4
Spencer Drango - not good enough
Vince Mayle - not good enough
Troymaine Pope - not good enough
Tre'Von Johnson - not good enough
Detrez Newsome - assuming the team only keeps 3 RBs, he is #4
Jeff Richards - assuming the team only keeps 5 CBs, he is #6
Trenton Scott - not good enough
Kyle Wilson - not good enough
Zachary Crabtree - not good enough
Patrick Afriyie - not good enough
Justice Liggins - not good enough
Andre Patton - not good enough
Austin Roberts - not good enough
Arrion Springs - not good enough

Dzubnar is another possible cap casualty, but for now I will assume he sticks. That leaves this 53:

QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
DE Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
DT Darius Philon $7,500,000 (est.)
RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
S Adrian Phillips $3,500,000 (est.)
TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
CB Trevor Williams $3,095,000 (est.)
S Derwin James $2,815,671
TE Antonio Gates $2,500,000 (est.)
DT Damion Square $2,200,000 (est.)
ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
DP Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
ILB Nick Dzubnar $1,922,500
G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
S Jaylen Watkins $968,000 (est.)
WR Geremy Davis $902,000 (est.)
DP Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
DT Justin Jones $835,016
S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
LB Hayes Pullard $775,500 (est.)
FB Derek Watt $752,422
OLB Kyzir White $733,610
CB Desmond King $714,998
DP Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
T Sam Tevi $685,447
DP Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
CB Michael Davis $645,000
QB Cardale Jones $645,000
DE Anthony Lanier $645,000
C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
DE Isaac Rochell $610,500 (est.)
CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
K Michael Badgley $570,000
WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
RB Justin Jackson $570,000
DP Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
DP Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
DP Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
P Ty Long $495,000
WR Artavis Scott $495,000

So let's examine the 2019 salary cap.

The NFL cap for 2019 is $188.2M. The team carries over $1M from 2018, so it has $189.2M to spend in 2019.
The total cap hit for that 53 man roster above is $170,883,459.
The team is currently carrying $3,231,085 in dead cap money for 2019. Releasing Benjamin adds $1.25M in dead cap money for 2019. Releasing or trading Addae adds $1M in dead cap money for 2019.
The team will extend Rivers' contract this offseason, but I am going to assume that his cap figure remains the same.

That leaves $12,835,456 of the 2019 cap unaccounted for. Telesco will reserve some of that for IR and the practice squad. I'm not sure what to estimate for that, but I will assume $3,835,456 to leave a nice round number of $9M remaining for signing external free agents.

That 53 man roster above includes 7 draft picks and 46 players. Here are the positions represented by those players:

QB (2) - Rivers, Jones
RB (3) - Gordon, Ekeler, Jackson
FB (1) - Watt
WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Davis, Cantrell, Scott
TE (3) - Henry, Green, Gates
T (2) - Okung, Tevi
G (3) - Schofield, Feeney, Lamp
C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry
DT (4) - Philon, Square, Jones, McGill
DE (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Rochell, Lanier
LB (5) - Brown, Nwosu, White, Pullard, Dzubnar
CB (5) - Hayward, King, Williams, Davis, Facyson
S (4) - James, Phillips, Jenkins, Watkins
PK (1) - Badgley
P (1) - Long
LS (1) - Windt

Looking at this roster, here is my take on what the needs are, in order of importance:

Starting RT - pushing Tevi to backup swing tackle.
Starting DT - need a 5-6 man DT rotation, and Square, Jones, and McGill need to be the bottom 3 in that rotation.
Starting FS - I am not willing to assume that Phillips, Jenkins, or Watkins are good enough to be an effective starter.
Another G - ideally a starter, but at minimum a player good enough to compete with Schofield, Feeney, and Lamp for the 2 starting spots, with the other 2 providing depth.
WR3 - I think Davis, Cantrell, and Scott are good enough for WR 4-6 and special teams, but IMO the team needs a better WR3. I would like to see a veteran in this role, not a rookie.
LB - I think Brown can start at MLB if required, and Pullard provides depth there; White and Nwosu should start at the other spots, but there is no depth. It would be ideal to find a better starting MLB than Brown.

I am optimistic Telesco can fill all of those needs with $9M for additional free agents and 7 draft picks.

I like to see 24 players on offense and 26 on defense.

If the team does add 1 RT, 1 G, and 1 WR, that would make 24 on offense. It is possible the team would choose to carry a 4th TE (Culkin?) or 4th RB (Newsome?) rather than a 6th WR, in which case Scott, Cantrell, or Davis might not make the final roster. Davis is really good on special teams, so I am skeptical he will be cut if re-signed, so I am projecting 6 WRs.
If the team does add 1 DT, 1 FS, and 1 LB, that would make 25 on defense. That could make room for Richards to make the final roster. Or possibly a 6th DT (that would be my preference).

Thoughts?

Edited March 13 by Just Win Baby

Despyzer · March 9

On 1/22/2019 at 8:41 PM, Just Win Baby said:

ILB Denzel Perryman
He has missed 24 of 66 games in his 4 seasons, including 18 of 34 games in the past 2 seasons.

He is a good run defender, but has never been strong in coverage, and his tackling has been surprisingly poor.

I think the Chargers need to move on.

Extended - haven't seen terms yet.

Just Win Baby · March 9

2 hours ago, Despyzer said:

Extended - haven't seen terms yet.

I'm not in favor of this move, but if they signed him for less than $2M per season, it isn't a terrible signing.

Despyzer · March 9

Don't draft a QB

Bring in some ex-Jaguars?

Edited March 9 by Despyzer

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 9

addae cut, there are like 10 other safeties better than him

Despyzer · March 10

15 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

addae cut, there are like 10 other safeties better than him

Yeah, square peg, round hole. He'll catch on somewhere he can play SS and do well. This is a win-win for both team and player, I think.

Just Win Baby · March 10

On 3/8/2019 at 11:08 PM, Just Win Baby said:

On 3/8/2019 at 8:20 PM, Despyzer said:

Extended - haven't seen terms yet.

I'm not in favor of this move, but if they signed him for less than $2M per season, it isn't a terrible signing.

Wow, reportedly Perryman's contract is 2 years, $12M. I would like to assume it is heavily incentive-based, but those details have not been reported.

He has missed 18 of 34 games in the past 2 seasons. In the 16 games he played, the equivalent of 1 full regular season, he had:

1 interception, 2 passes defensed, 1 fumble recovery, 88 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and 1 QB hit
0 forced fumbles, 0 sacks, 0 safeties, 0 TDs

In fairness, he only played 2 snaps in week 10 last season before getting hurt, so it is more appropriate to call this a 15 game sample. Still, I feel like I'm missing something. How is this worth $6M per year?

The Chargers saved $5M by releasing Addae and turned right around and blew it on a two down LB who cannot stay on the field. :thumbdown:

I also have to ask, is this a true representation of his market value? Of what other teams would have signed him for? We don't know Perryman's cap hits for 2019 vs. 2020, but this puts him around the #15 to #17 ILB in the league in 2019 cap hit based on current contracts. I have a hard time believing that is representative of his real value.

Edited March 10 by Just Win Baby

Just Win Baby · March 10

22 hours ago, Despyzer said:

Don't draft a QB

Bring in some ex-Jaguars?

Agree with the first article.

I am skeptical they can afford Jackson. If they sign Jackson, I certainly don't think they will be able to afford to re-sign Philon. So that one comes down to whether Jackson's play is enough of an upgrade on Philon to pay Jackson $2-4M per season more. Remember, Philon is just 25, and his best play should still be ahead of him. It seems more like Telesco's style to re-sign Philon.

Gipson is an interesting case. He is a great FS and would be a great fit in the Chargers defense. But there are a lot of good free agent FS available this offseason, and he will probably be on the higher end in that group for price to sign. The Chargers may be better served to pull from the lower end of that price list. Especially after spending $12M on Perryman. I have also read but have not confirmed that Gipson publicly stated negative comments about Bradley after he exited the Jaguars, so their relationship might not be a strong one.

Edited March 10 by Just Win Baby

Just Win Baby · March 12

On 3/10/2019 at 11:31 AM, Just Win Baby said:

On 3/8/2019 at 11:08 PM, Just Win Baby said:

On 3/8/2019 at 8:20 PM, Despyzer said:

Extended - haven't seen terms yet.

I'm not in favor of this move, but if they signed him for less than $2M per season, it isn't a terrible signing.

Wow, reportedly Perryman's contract is 2 years, $12M. I would like to assume it is heavily incentive-based, but those details have not been reported.

He has missed 18 of 34 games in the past 2 seasons. In the 16 games he played, the equivalent of 1 full regular season, he had:

1 interception, 2 passes defensed, 1 fumble recovery, 88 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and 1 QB hit

0 forced fumbles, 0 sacks, 0 safeties, 0 TDs

In fairness, he only played 2 snaps in week 10 last season before getting hurt, so it is more appropriate to call this a 15 game sample. Still, I feel like I'm missing something. How is this worth $6M per year?

The Chargers saved $5M by releasing Addae and turned right around and blew it on a two down LB who cannot stay on the field.

I also have to ask, is this a true representation of his market value? Of what other teams would have signed him for? We don't know Perryman's cap hits for 2019 vs. 2020, but this puts him around the #15 to #17 ILB in the league in 2019 cap hit based on current contracts. I have a hard time believing that is representative of his real value.

Per Over the Cap, here is some info on his contract:

2019 cap hit – $3.475M, which appears to include $37.5K per game roster bonus (total of $600K if he plays all 16)
- ETA: Spotrac shows a lower figure of $3,212,500, based on counting only 9 games of per game roster bonus; I'm not sure how that works, but it makes sense that all 16 games' worth of those bonuses would not count against the cap... particularly not for Perryman
2020 cap hit – $8.575M, which appears to include $62.5K per game roster bonus (total of $1M if he plays all 16)
Total of $4.9M guaranteed, all paid to him in 2019
If they release or trade him after 2019, they will have $2.025M in dead cap money in 2020

His cap hit in 2019 is reasonable. Not so much in 2020, when he currently stands to be the Chargers’ 6th highest cap hit (assuming the team picks up Bosa’s 5th year option) and also stands to have the 8th highest ILB cap hit in the league. :mellow:

I’m glad to see per game roster bonuses, but apparently he could miss every single game this year and would still count $2.875M against the cap. I was hoping for a higher percentage of incentives than appears to be there. Maybe there are more incentives than have been made reported…

IMO this is an overpay. I do not believe he would have gotten a contract of this value on the open market.

Edited March 12 by Just Win Baby

Despyzer · March 12

Former Carolina LB Thomas Davis signed to a two-year $10.5M contract.

Just Win Baby · March 12

The team signed LB Thomas Davis to a 2 year, $10.5M contract. I assume this means they now envision the starting LBs to be WLB White, MLB Perryman, SLB Davis, with Brown and Nwosu in reserve. Nwosu may also see time at DE in passing situations.

Even though Davis is 36, I like this signing. He played really well last season and has only missed a few games to injury over the past 4 seasons.

I hope this takes LB off the draft board, barring a Derwin James-like value falling to them.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 12

so pretty quiet on the safety front? Earl Thomas? Suh says he wants to stay west coast....perhaps sign him to 1 year deal stick him in Mebanes spot? cant be any worse than him

Just Win Baby · March 12

2 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

so pretty quiet on the safety front? Earl Thomas? Suh says he wants to stay west coast....perhaps sign him to 1 year deal stick him in Mebanes spot? cant be any worse than him

They can’t afford Suh or Thomas.

Just Win Baby · March 13

First update on this post.

Per Spotrac, the Chargers currently have 56 players under contract for 2019. We also know the team has 7 draft picks, so there will be 7 more players added to the roster from the draft.

Here is a list of those players and draft picks, along with their current 2019 cap hits:

QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
OLB Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
WR Travis Benjamin $6,500,000
RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
OLB Thomas Davis $3,250,000
MLB Denzel Perryman $3,212,500
S Derwin James $2,815,671
ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
ILB Nick Dzubnar $1,922,500
G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
DT Justin Jones $835,016
S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
FB Derek Watt $752,422
OLB Kyzir White $733,610
S Desmond King $714,998
Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
S Jaylen Watkins $705,000 (note that he supposedly signed a 1 year, $895K contract, but both Spotrac and Over the Cap show his cap hit as $705K... not sure why)
T Sam Tevi $685,447
Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
TE Sean Culkin $649,000
RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
CB Michael Davis $645,000
G Spencer Drango $645,000
QB Cardale Jones $645,000
DE Anthony Lanier $645,000
WR Vince Mayle $645,000
RB Troymaine Pope $645,000
C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
K Michael Badgley $570,000
WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
RB Justin Jackson $570,000
OLB Tre'Von Johnson $570,000
RB Detrez Newsome $570,000
CB Jeff Richards $570,000
G Trenton Scott $570,000
LB Kyle Wilson $570,000
Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
T Zachary Crabtree $500,000
DE Patrick Afriyie $495,000
WR Justice Liggins $495,000
P Ty Long $495,000
WR Andre Patton $495,000
TE Austin Roberts $495,000
WR Artavis Scott $495,000
S Arrion Springs $495,000

I'm not going to try to identify the additional external free agents Telesco will sign, but I will assume that he re-signs these internal free agents for these amounts:

UFA DT Darius Philon $7,500,000 - guessing at his market value
UFA S Adrian Phillips $3,500,000 - guessing at his market value (and hoping the Chargers let him walk if it takes more than this to re-sign him)
UFA TE Antonio Gates $2,500,000 - assume Gates takes a $1M pay cut to return
UFA DT Damion Square $2,200,000 - assume a 10% raise over last season
RFA CB Trevor Williams $2,025,000 - this is the 2019 original round tender amount
UFA WR Geremy Davis $902,000 - assume a 10% raise over last season
ERFA DE Isaac Rochell $610,500 - assume a 10% raise over last season

That is 70 players for 53 roster spots, without accounting for external free agents. That means at least 17 players on the list above will not make the final roster. I assume these players will not make it:

Travis Benjamin - cap casualty
Nick Dzubnar - cap casualty
Sean Culkin - assuming the team only keeps 3 TEs and assuming the team brings Gates back, Culkin is #4
Spencer Drango - not good enough
Vince Mayle - not good enough
Troymaine Pope - not good enough
Tre'Von Johnson - not good enough
Detrez Newsome - assuming the team only keeps 3 RBs, he is #4
Jeff Richards - assuming the team only keeps 5 CBs, he is #6
Trenton Scott - not good enough
Kyle Wilson - not good enough
Zachary Crabtree - not good enough
Patrick Afriyie - not good enough
Justice Liggins - not good enough
Andre Patton - not good enough
Austin Roberts - not good enough
Arrion Springs - not good enough

That leaves this 53:

QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
OLB Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
DT Darius Philon $7,500,000 (est.)
RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
S Adrian Phillips $3,500,000 (est.)
TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
OLB Thomas Davis $3,250,000
MLB Denzel Perryman $3,212,500
S Derwin James $2,815,671
TE Antonio Gates $2,500,000 (est.)
DT Damion Square $2,200,000 (est.)
ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
CB Trevor Williams $2,025,000 (est.)
G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
WR Geremy Davis $902,000 (est.)
Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
DT Justin Jones $835,016
S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
FB Derek Watt $752,422
OLB Kyzir White $733,610
S Desmond King $714,998
Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
S Jaylen Watkins $705,000*
T Sam Tevi $685,447
Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
CB Michael Davis $645,000
QB Cardale Jones $645,000
DE Anthony Lanier $645,000
C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
DE Isaac Rochell $610,500 (est.)
CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
K Michael Badgley $570,000
WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
RB Justin Jackson $570,000
Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
P Ty Long $495,000
WR Artavis Scott $495,000

So let's examine the 2019 salary cap.

The NFL cap for 2019 is $188.2M. The team carries over $1M from 2018, so it has $189.2M to spend in 2019.
The total cap hit for that 53 man roster above is $173,314,959.
The team is currently carrying $4,231,085 in dead cap money for 2019, already accounting for Addae's release. Releasing Benjamin adds $1.25M in dead cap money for 2019. Releasing Dzubnar adds $397,500 in dead cap money for 2019.
The team will extend Rivers' contract this offseason, but I am going to assume that his cap figure remains the same.

That leaves $10,006,456 of the 2019 cap unaccounted for. Telesco will reserve some of that for IR and the practice squad. I'm not sure what to estimate for that, but I will assume $3,006,456 to leave a nice round number of $7M remaining for signing external free agents. This might be light...

That 53 man roster above includes 7 draft picks and 46 players. Here are the positions represented by those players:

QB (2) - Rivers, Jones
RB (3) - Gordon, Ekeler, Jackson
FB (1) - Watt
WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Davis, Cantrell, Scott
TE (3) - Henry, Green, Gates
T (2) - Okung, Tevi
G (3) - Schofield, Feeney, Lamp
C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry
DT (4) - Philon, Square, Jones, McGill
Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Rochell, Lanier
LB (5) - Davis, Perryman, White, Brown, Nwosu
CB (5) - Hayward, King, Williams, Davis, Facyson
S (4) - James, Phillips, Jenkins, Watkins
PK (1) - Badgley
P (1) - Long
LS (1) - Windt

Looking at this roster, here is my take on what the needs are, in order of importance:

Starting RT - pushing Tevi to backup swing tackle.
Starting DT - need a 5-6 man DT rotation, and Square, Jones, and McGill need to be the bottom 3 in that rotation.
Starting FS - I am not willing to assume that Phillips, Jenkins, or Watkins are good enough to be an effective starter.
Another G - ideally a starter, but at minimum a player good enough to compete with Schofield, Feeney, and Lamp for the 2 starting spots, with the other 2 providing depth.
WR3 - I think Davis, Cantrell, and Scott are good enough for WR 4-6 and special teams, but IMO the team needs a better WR3. I would like to see a veteran in this role, not a rookie.

I am optimistic Telesco can fill all of those needs with $7M for additional free agents and 7 draft picks.

$7M doesn't seem like enough for Earl Thomas or Suh, to address @bicycle_seat_sniffer's post above. However, they could not re-sign Phillips and maybe that would be enough additional space to get it done with one of them. Neither one really seems like Telesco's style, though, whereas re-signing Phillips does seem like his style.

Though I am not a fan of the Perryman signing, I am a fan of the Davis signing, and the combination of the two should take LB off the Chargers draft board barring a huge value falling to them... which is good, since it cuts the needs list to something more manageable.

I like to see 24 players on offense and 26 on defense.

If the team does add 1 RT, 1 G, and 1 WR, that would make 24 on offense. It is possible the team would choose to carry a 4th TE (Culkin?) or 4th RB (Newsome?) rather than a 6th WR, in which case Scott, Cantrell, or Davis might not make the final roster. Davis is really good on special teams, so I am skeptical he will be cut if re-signed, especially if Dzubnar is released, so I am projecting 6 WRs.
If the team does add 1 DT and 1 FS, that would make 25 on defense, so there is 1 wild card. I would like to see a 6th DT.

Of course, I only projected 5 more additions here, and there are 7 draft picks and ~$7M in cap room for free agents. So there could be 3-5 more players added, which would push some others off the roster. I would say these players are the most at risk:

QB Cardale Jones - definitely not the long term answer, but who is available to the Chargers who is? is there even a better stopgap available for a similar price?
WR Dylan Cantrell - numbers game at WR if Davis re-signed
WR Artavis Scott - numbers game at WR if Davis re-signed
TE Antonio Gates - possibly not re-signed
DT Damion Square - possibly not re-signed
DE Anthony Lanier - if better DE added
CB Brandon Facyson - if better #5 CB added
CB Jeff Richards - if team goes with 5 CBs or better #6 CB added
S Adrian Phillips - possibly not re-signed
P Ty Long - I hope he is the guy, because not only can he handle the punter role, he can handle kickoffs, which is a weak point for Badgley... but he wasn't good enough to make the NFL without first spending time in the CFL

Thoughts?

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 13

Great breakdown....not alot if wuggle room to make free agent moves....need to hit on draft picks...gaping hole at dt

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 13

Tyrod taylor is the backup qb....

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 13

Zack brown band.....lb from redskins got cut....always liked him...

Just Win Baby · March 13

16 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Tyrod taylor is the backup qb....

He is an upgrade over Geno and Jones, but I suspect he will be quite a bit more expensive. If Rivers goes down, I don't think any of those guys, Tyrod included, is really good enough to help the team contend for a Super Bowl. On the other hand, he knows Lynn well and adds more veteran leadership. No terms released yet, but, all things considered, I doubt he is worth the delta in cap hit.

Unless they see him as the long term successor to Rivers... he is 29. I suppose if they keep him long enough for Rivers to retire, he can repeat his Cleveland role of helping to usher in a young replacement.

Despyzer · March 13

15 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

$7M doesn't seem like enough for Earl Thomas or Suh, to address @bicycle_seat_sniffer's post above. However, they could not re-sign Phillips and maybe that would be enough additional space to get it done with one of them. Neither one really seems like Telesco's style, though, whereas re-signing Phillips does seem like his style.

Telesco explains his FA mentality

In short, he's never going to get in a FA shootout with other teams. His comments about paying for future performance instead of past production almost sounds like analytics, which I'm sure almost all GMs in every sport utilize to some extent nowadays.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 13

Mebane is back

Just Win Baby · March 14

22 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

On 3/13/2019 at 1:09 PM, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Tyrod taylor is the backup qb....

He is an upgrade over Geno and Jones, but I suspect he will be quite a bit more expensive. If Rivers goes down, I don't think any of those guys, Tyrod included, is really good enough to help the team contend for a Super Bowl. On the other hand, he knows Lynn well and adds more veteran leadership. No terms released yet, but, all things considered, I doubt he is worth the delta in cap hit.

Unless they see him as the long term successor to Rivers... he is 29. I suppose if they keep him long enough for Rivers to retire, he can repeat his Cleveland role of helping to usher in a young replacement.

Wow, Telesco signed Tyrod for 2 years, $11M, $6M guaranteed. His 2019 cap hit is $3.5M. If they don't cut him after 2019, his 2020 cap hit will be $7.5M... but if they do cut him, they will have $2.5M in dead money in 2020.

If both Rivers and Tyrod are on the roster next year, they will be spending more than $30M of their cap on the QB position. Could this actually imply they are considering not extending Rivers, and they are thinking of Tyrod as the possible starter next season?

IMO this is a terrible move.

Just Win Baby · March 14

In my long post yesterday, I concluded that the team only had about $7M to work with to sign external free agents. To get to that number, I made two key assumptions:

I assumed they would resign Philon, Phillips, Square, and Gates who would have a combined cap hit of around $15.7M.
I assumed they would release Benjamin and Dzubnar, which would free up $6.775M in 2019 cap space.

They haven't done any of those things yet.

Substituting Taylor in place of Cardale Jones takes an extra $2.855M of cap space. And they haven't released Jones... I certainly hope they don't intend to carry both of them, but, if so, adding Taylor takes an extra $3.5M.

They also signed Mebane. Terms have not been released, but he made $4.5M last season. I have to assume he isn't taking a pay cut, although his 2 year contract could be backloaded, like the Perryman, Davis, and Taylor contracts are. Even so, I'm sure his cap hit will be at least $3.5M in 2019.

This seems to show that some of my assumptions were off. No surprise there, since there was a lot of conjecture in there. I hope it is the case that I overestimated how much it will take to re-sign Philon and Phillips. I don't really care that much about Phillips, but I think Philon is important. Square might be off the table now with Mebane re-signed, so he may not matter as much.

Edited March 15 by Just Win Baby

Despyzer · March 14

We don't need to worry about them overpaying for Verrett now.

Despyzer · March 14

4 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

This seems to show that some of my assumptions were off. No surprise there, since there was a lot of conjecture in there.

I personally appreciate both the information you provide and your conjecture.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 15

BREAKING: Chargers have re-signed Adrian Phillips. Updates on contract extension tba (via @eric_d_williams) ⚡️⚡️⚡️

Just Win Baby · March 15

Second update on this post.

Per Spotrac, the Chargers currently have 59 players under contract for 2019. We also know the team has 7 draft picks, so there will be 7 more players added to the roster from the draft. Here is a list of those players and draft picks, along with their current 2019 cap hits:

QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
OLB Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
WR Travis Benjamin $6,500,000
RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
DT Brandon Mebane $4,300,000
QB Tyrod Taylor $3,500,000
S Adrian Phillips $3,500,000 (est.) - signed today to a 1 year contract, but terms have not been released; I am assuming the same cap hit I have been using for him when I was expecting him to be re-signed
TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
OLB Thomas Davis $3,250,000
MLB Denzel Perryman $3,212,500
S Derwin James $2,815,671
ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
ILB Nick Dzubnar $1,922,500
G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
DT Justin Jones $835,016
S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
FB Derek Watt $752,422
OLB Kyzir White $733,610
S Desmond King $714,998
Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
S Jaylen Watkins $705,000 (note that he supposedly signed a 1 year, $895K contract, but both Spotrac and Over the Cap show his cap hit as $705K... not sure why)
T Sam Tevi $685,447
Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
TE Sean Culkin $649,000
RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
CB Michael Davis $645,000
G Spencer Drango $645,000
QB Cardale Jones $645,000
DE Anthony Lanier $645,000
WR Vince Mayle $645,000
RB Troymaine Pope $645,000
C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
K Michael Badgley $570,000
WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
RB Justin Jackson $570,000
OLB Tre'Von Johnson $570,000
RB Detrez Newsome $570,000
CB Jeff Richards $570,000
G Trenton Scott $570,000
LB Kyle Wilson $570,000
Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
T Zachary Crabtree $500,000
DE Patrick Afriyie $495,000
WR Justice Liggins $495,000
P Ty Long $495,000
WR Andre Patton $495,000
TE Austin Roberts $495,000
WR Artavis Scott $495,000
S Arrion Springs $495,000

I'm not going to try to identify the additional external free agents Telesco will sign, but I will assume that he re-signs these internal free agents for these amounts:

UFA DT Darius Philon $7,500,000 - guessing at his market value
UFA TE Antonio Gates $2,500,000 - assume Gates takes a $1M pay cut to return
RFA CB Trevor Williams $2,025,000 - this is the 2019 original round tender amount the team placed on him
UFA WR Geremy Davis $902,000 - assume a 10% raise over last season
ERFA DE Isaac Rochell $610,500 - assume a 10% raise over last season

That is 71 players for 53 roster spots, without accounting for additional external free agents. That means at least 18 players on the list above will not make the final roster. I assume these players will not make it:

Travis Benjamin - cap casualty
Nick Dzubnar - cap casualty
Sean Culkin - assuming the team only keeps 3 TEs and assuming the team brings Gates back, Culkin is #4
Spencer Drango - not good enough
Cardale Jones - not good enough, pushed out by Tyrod
Vince Mayle - not good enough
Troymaine Pope - not good enough
Tre'Von Johnson - not good enough
Detrez Newsome - assuming the team only keeps 3 RBs, he is #4
Jeff Richards - assuming the team only keeps 5 CBs, he is #6
Trenton Scott - not good enough
Kyle Wilson - not good enough
Zachary Crabtree - not good enough
Patrick Afriyie - not good enough
Justice Liggins - not good enough
Andre Patton - not good enough
Austin Roberts - not good enough
Arrion Springs - not good enough

That leaves this 53:

QB Philip Rivers $23,000,000
OLB Melvin Ingram $19,625,000
LT Russell Okung $15,968,750
WR Keenan Allen $12,150,000
CB Casey Hayward $10,000,000
C Mike Pouncey $9,250,000
DE Joey Bosa $8,232,538
DT Darius Philon $7,500,000 (est.)
RB Melvin Gordon $5,605,000
WR Mike Williams $5,386,344
G Michael Schofield $4,500,000
DT Brandon Mebane $4,300,000
QB Tyrod Taylor $3,500,000
S Adrian Phillips $3,500,000 (est.) - signed today to a 1 year contract, but terms have not been released; I am assuming the same cap hit I have been using for him when I was expecting him to be re-signed
TE Virgil Green $3,300,000
OLB Thomas Davis $3,250,000
MLB Denzel Perryman $3,212,500
S Derwin James $2,815,671
TE Antonio Gates $2,500,000 (est.)
ILB Jatavis Brown $2,071,097
Round 1 draft pick (28) $2,064,769
TE Hunter Henry $2,030,100
CB Trevor Williams $2,025,000 (est.)
G Forrest Lamp $1,818,251
LB Uchenna Nwosu $1,308,994
LS Mike Windt $1,085,000
G Dan Feeney $1,024,158
WR Geremy Davis $902,000 (est.)
Round 2 draft pick (60) $857,616
DT Justin Jones $835,016
S Rayshawn Jenkins $810,552
DT T.Y. McGill $805,000
FB Derek Watt $752,422
OLB Kyzir White $733,610
S Desmond King $714,998
Round 3 draft pick (91) $712,607
S Jaylen Watkins $705,000 - note that he supposedly signed a 1 year, $895K contract, but both Spotrac and Over the Cap show his cap hit as $705K... not sure why
T Sam Tevi $685,447
Round 4 draft pick (130) $658,454
RB Austin Ekeler $646,668
CB Michael Davis $645,000
DE Anthony Lanier $645,000
C Scott Quessenberry $641,063
DE Isaac Rochell $610,500 (est.)
CB Brandon Facyson $573,333
K Michael Badgley $570,000
WR Dylan Cantrell $570,000
RB Justin Jackson $570,000
Round 5 draft pick (166) $564,128
Round 6 draft pick (200) $533,942
Round 7 draft pick (242) $514,431
P Ty Long $495,000
WR Artavis Scott $495,000

So let's examine the 2019 salary cap.

The NFL cap for 2019 is $188.2M. The team carries over $1M from 2018, so it has $189.2M to spend in 2019.
The total cap hit for that 53 man roster above is $178,269,999.
The team is currently carrying $4,231,085 in dead cap money for 2019, already accounting for Addae's release. Releasing Benjamin adds $1.25M in dead cap money for 2019. Releasing Dzubnar adds $397,500 in dead cap money for 2019.
The team will extend Rivers' contract this offseason, but I am going to assume that his cap figure remains the same.

That leaves $5,051,416 of the 2019 cap unaccounted for. Telesco will reserve some of that for IR and the practice squad. I'm not sure what to estimate for that, but I will assume $3,051,416 to leave a nice round number of $2M remaining for signing external free agents. This might be light...

That 53 man roster above includes 7 draft picks and 46 players. Here are the positions represented by those players:

QB (2) - Rivers, Taylor
RB (3) - Gordon, Ekeler, Jackson
FB (1) - Watt
WR (5) - Allen, Williams, Davis, Cantrell, Scott
TE (3) - Henry, Green, Gates
T (2) - Okung, Tevi
G (3) - Schofield, Feeney, Lamp
C (2) - Pouncey, Quessenberry
DT (4) - Philon, Mebane, Jones, McGill
Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Rochell, Lanier
LB (5) - Davis, Perryman, White, Brown, Nwosu
CB (5) - Hayward, King, Williams, Davis, Facyson
S (4) - James, Phillips, Jenkins, Watkins
PK (1) - Badgley
P (1) - Long
LS (1) - Windt

Looking at this roster, here is my take on what the needs are, in order of importance:

Starting RT - pushing Tevi to backup swing tackle.
Starting DT - need at least a 5 man DT rotation; Philon should start, and Mebane, Jones, and McGill should be the bottom 3 in that rotation. Note: I have seen a report that Philon could sign with the Patriots. If that happens, DT moves to #1 on this list.
Starting FS - I am not willing to assume that Phillips, Jenkins, or Watkins are good enough to be an effective starter. But I am afraid the team may move forward with this group.
Another G - ideally a starter, but at minimum a player good enough to compete with Schofield, Feeney, and Lamp for the 2 starting spots, with the other 2 providing depth.
WR3 - I think Davis, Cantrell, and Scott are good enough for WR 4-6 and special teams, but IMO the team needs a better WR3. I would like to see a veteran in this role, not a rookie, but I am skeptical that the cap room remains to make it happen.

I could be off on cap hits for Philon and Phillips, the team may not re-sign Gates, and I suppose there could be some additional cap casualty or restructuring I am not forecasting that could open up more cap space. Failing those things, the Chargers look like they are about done with free agency if they do indeed re-sign Philon and Gates.

Though I am not a fan of the Perryman signing, I am a fan of the Davis signing, and the combination of the two should take LB off the Chargers draft board barring a huge value falling to them... which is good, since it cuts the needs list to something more manageable. Even so, IMO solving those needs above solely through the draft is not likely to happen.

I like to see 24 players on offense and 26 on defense.

If the team does add 1 RT, 1 G, and 1 WR, that would make 24 on offense. It is possible the team would choose to carry a 4th TE (Culkin?) or 4th RB (Newsome?) rather than a 6th WR, in which case Scott, Cantrell, or Davis might not make the final roster. Davis is really good on special teams, so I am skeptical he will be cut if re-signed, especially if Dzubnar is released, so I am projecting 6 WRs.
If the team does add 1 DT and 1 FS, that would make 25 on defense, so there is 1 wild card. I would like to see a 6th DT, particularly since they are counting on 34 year old Mebane as their 2nd or 3rd DT in a 5 man rotation.

Of course, I only projected 5 more additions here, and there are 7 draft picks and perhaps ~$2M in cap room for free agents. So there will be at least 2 more players added, which will likely push some others off the roster. I would say these players are the most at risk:

WR Dylan Cantrell - numbers game at WR if Davis re-signed
WR Artavis Scott - numbers game at WR if Davis re-signed
TE Antonio Gates - possibly not re-signed
DE Anthony Lanier - if better DE added
CB Brandon Facyson - if better #5 CB added
CB Jeff Richards - if team goes with 5 CBs or better #6 CB added
P Ty Long - I hope he is the guy, because not only can he handle the punter role, he can also handle kickoffs, which is a weak point for Badgley... but Long wasn't good enough to make the NFL without first spending time in the CFL

My reaction to the free agent signings so far:

S Watkins - like it, although I am afraid the team may be counting on him to start at FS; if so, I hope they have good reason for that confidence
LB Perryman - don't like it primarily because he has been unable to stay healthy; if he can do that, it will be good value for this season and then time to restructure/extend or release him to avoid his much higher cap hit in 2020
LB Davis - like it; he is old but played really well last season and has only missed a few games to injury over the past several seasons; assuming he will play SAM/OTTO, he is a big upgrade on Emanuel, although that does relegate last year's 2nd round pick to a backup role
QB Taylor - don't like the cap hit, especially in 2020; but he is a big upgrade at backup QB and could actually win games if Rivers missed time due to injury; overall, I don't like it
DT Mebane - don't like it; he is old for a DT and hasn't played more than 576 snaps in a season since 2013, yet they are paying him like a starter
S Phillips - expected it and like that it is for just one year; haven't seen the terms, so I will like this as long as the cap hit is $3.5M or less

Thoughts?

Edited March 16 by Just Win Baby

bicycle_seat_sniffer · March 16

Tom Telesco G, Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers signed GM Tom Telesco to a multi-year extension.

The deal came at the end of the season. It's the third extension for Telesco with the Chargers. Telesco has done better in free agency than the draft, getting Pro Bowl seasons out of Mike Pouncey, Russell Okung, and Casey Hayward the last three years. The Chargers don't have a huge window with Philip Rivers near the end of his career, but Telesco has some of the strongest job security in the league.

Just Win Baby · March 16

Looking ahead to 2020, the Chargers have only 28 players currently under contract for 2020; the league average is 35. Consequently, they currently have the 11th highest amount of projected available cap space in 2020, about $77.7M.

However, that is misleading... Rivers (extension) and Bosa (5th year option) will probably combine for more than $40M in 2020. Adding them to the other 28 players still means the Chargers are still below average with 30 players under contract for 2020, but will drop them to about #25 in available cap space. In addition to Rivers and Bosa, these significant players are currently set to be free agents in 2020:

C Pouncey
G Schofield
RB Gordon
RB Ekeler
TE Henry
WR Benjamin
WR Cantrell
WR Scott
FB Watt
DT McGill
LB Brown
CB Williams
CB Davis
S Watkins
ILB Dzubnar

Telesco still has a lot of work to do there. It appears the backloaded contracts he gave to Perryman, Taylor, and Davis will hurt, and perhaps makes it more likely they will be cap casualties. I wouldn't be surprised to see Telesco extend Pouncey, Gordon, and/or Henry in addition to Rivers this offseason.

*** Official 2019 Chargers Thread ****

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* Official 2019 Chargers Thread **