Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
*** OFFICIAL SUPER BOWL LIII Thread - PATRIOTS vs. RAMS *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
McVay is great, he'll be prepared.. but Goff isn't anywhere close to Mahomes. He's one of the worst QBs in the league under pressure, and once he can't hear McVay in his ear when he's got 10 seconds left on the play clock, he's going to face a tough challenge as Belichick and Flores will throw everything they can at him to try and confuse him.voiceofunreason said:
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Super Bowl LIII Player Prop Bets Released for Rams vs. Patriots
Your Comprehensive Guide to Losing Money on Super Bowl LIII Prop Bets
2019 Super Bowl prop bets: 30 best picks for Patriots vs. Rams
Super Bowl prop bets 2019: From the funny to the downright absurd
Here are the most obscure Super Bowl prop bets that bookmakers are actually offering
Your Comprehensive Guide to Losing Money on Super Bowl LIII Prop Bets
2019 Super Bowl prop bets: 30 best picks for Patriots vs. Rams
Super Bowl prop bets 2019: From the funny to the downright absurd
Here are the most obscure Super Bowl prop bets that bookmakers are actually offering
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
TIL Sean McVay once beat out 5-star recruit Calvin Johnson for Georgia 4A Offensive Player of the Year (2003.)
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE with BB and TB have gone 22-8 (.733) in games against teams that made the playoffs that started a QB 25 years old or younger. Since 2014, they have gone 8-0 in such games (vs. Luck x2, Bortles, Mariota, Mahomes x2, Watson, Trubisky), winning by an average score of 36-23. They last lost to a QB 25 or younger on a playoff bound team in 2013 @ CAR with Cam Newton by a score of 20-24.
I brought this up because historically NE typically loses in the post season to QBs that they faced in the regular season and / or teams that they have played frequently (NYJ, BAL, NYG, DEN). They also have typically lost to older / veteran QBs in the post season that had previously faced NE in the past (the notable exception being Nick Foles).
2005 - Jake Plummer DEN, Age 31, 2nd game against NE with BB / TB
2006 - Peyton Manning IND, Age 30, 9th game against NE
2007 - Eli Manning NYG, Age 26, 2nd game against NE
2009 - Joe Flacco BAL, Age 24, 2nd game against NE
2010 - Mark Sanchez NYG, Age 24, 5th game against NE
2011 - Eli Manning NYG, Age 30, 4th game against NE
2012 - Joe Flacco BAL, Age 28, 6th game against NE
2013 - Peyton Manning DEN, Age 37, 14th game against NE
2015 - Peyton Manning DEN, Age 39, 16th game against NE
2017 - Nick Foles PHI, Age 29, 1st game against NE
FWIW, Jared Goff is 24 and is making his 2nd start against the Patriots. It may or may not make any difference, just thought it was interesting to run the numbers . . .
I brought this up because historically NE typically loses in the post season to QBs that they faced in the regular season and / or teams that they have played frequently (NYJ, BAL, NYG, DEN). They also have typically lost to older / veteran QBs in the post season that had previously faced NE in the past (the notable exception being Nick Foles).
2005 - Jake Plummer DEN, Age 31, 2nd game against NE with BB / TB
2006 - Peyton Manning IND, Age 30, 9th game against NE
2007 - Eli Manning NYG, Age 26, 2nd game against NE
2009 - Joe Flacco BAL, Age 24, 2nd game against NE
2010 - Mark Sanchez NYG, Age 24, 5th game against NE
2011 - Eli Manning NYG, Age 30, 4th game against NE
2012 - Joe Flacco BAL, Age 28, 6th game against NE
2013 - Peyton Manning DEN, Age 37, 14th game against NE
2015 - Peyton Manning DEN, Age 39, 16th game against NE
2017 - Nick Foles PHI, Age 29, 1st game against NE
FWIW, Jared Goff is 24 and is making his 2nd start against the Patriots. It may or may not make any difference, just thought it was interesting to run the numbers . . .
Bossman
Footballguy
In 8 Super Bowls Tom Brady has been responsible for 8 turnovers. 5 int's / 3 fumbles.
1 per game avg. Safe to say that's way beyond his regular season per game avg.
2 int's in the championship game last week that they were able to overcome ... barely.
Turnovers seem to be what keeps these games close much of the time.
If NE doesn't gift LA the ball, maybe they finally win an easy one.
1 per game avg. Safe to say that's way beyond his regular season per game avg.
2 int's in the championship game last week that they were able to overcome ... barely.
Turnovers seem to be what keeps these games close much of the time.
If NE doesn't gift LA the ball, maybe they finally win an easy one.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
Jared Goff when kept clean:Bucky86 said:
• Comp%: 72.1%
• Yards/attempt: 9.1
• TD-INT: 28-7
Jared Goff when under pressure:
• Comp%: 43.4%
• Yards/attempt: 6.0
• TD-INT: 5-6
I think the Patriots will be looking heavily at the Lions and Bears games against the Rams from earlier in the season. The Lions figured out how to stop the Rams’ offense, just weren’t good enough to beat them. Vic Fangio saw what the Lions were doing and basically copied it. Eagles also followed suit and had success.
Bossman
Footballguy
Better question might be ... why does Brady have a hard time protecting the ball in the biggest game of the year?
You wouldn't think nerves would be much of a factor ... he's done this so many times.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I think the Pats might win by their greatest margin in a super bowl ever. 10 or more. They are going to pound the Rams D into oblivion.
NE has the third heaviest team in the league as they’ve morphed into a dominate running team. Meanwhile LA has the lightest defense. I expect a mauling.
NE has the third heaviest team in the league as they’ve morphed into a dominate running team. Meanwhile LA has the lightest defense. I expect a mauling.
Last edited by a moderator:
My guess he has been eliminated from anyone's invite lists if he's skipped it for the last 7 years.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
In their last 4 games . . .
NEW ENGLAND:
35 points scored, 18.5 points allowed, +16.5 point scoring differential
263 passing yards, 184 rushing yards, 447 total yards
229 passing yards allowed, 59 rushing yards allowed, 288 total yards allowed
+159 yards from scrimmage per game
6 turnovers, 8 turnovers forced, +2 net turnovers
10 sacks, 2 sacks allowed, +8 net sacks
24 penalties committed, 215 penalty yards
28 of 56 third downs converted (50%)
15 of 47 third downs conversions allowed (31.9%)
110 total first downs
37:33 average time of possession
Opponents combined record: 36-32
LOS ANGELES:
33.75 points scored, 21.5 points allowed, +12.25 point scoring differential
225 passing yards, 194 rushing yards, 419 total yards
231 passing yards allowed, 82 rushing yards allowed, 313 total yards allowed
+106 yards from scrimmage per game
2 turnovers, 5 turnovers forced, +3 net turnovers
10 sacks, 3 sacks allowed, +7 net sacks
23 penalties committed, 228 penalty yards
27 of 52 third downs converted (51.9%)
12 of 46 third downs conversions allowed (26.1%)
110 total first downs
34:26 average time of possession
Opponents combined record: 32-36
Looks pretty close although NE had an edge in scoring and yardage differential.
NEW ENGLAND:
35 points scored, 18.5 points allowed, +16.5 point scoring differential
263 passing yards, 184 rushing yards, 447 total yards
229 passing yards allowed, 59 rushing yards allowed, 288 total yards allowed
+159 yards from scrimmage per game
6 turnovers, 8 turnovers forced, +2 net turnovers
10 sacks, 2 sacks allowed, +8 net sacks
24 penalties committed, 215 penalty yards
28 of 56 third downs converted (50%)
15 of 47 third downs conversions allowed (31.9%)
110 total first downs
37:33 average time of possession
Opponents combined record: 36-32
LOS ANGELES:
33.75 points scored, 21.5 points allowed, +12.25 point scoring differential
225 passing yards, 194 rushing yards, 419 total yards
231 passing yards allowed, 82 rushing yards allowed, 313 total yards allowed
+106 yards from scrimmage per game
2 turnovers, 5 turnovers forced, +3 net turnovers
10 sacks, 3 sacks allowed, +7 net sacks
23 penalties committed, 228 penalty yards
27 of 52 third downs converted (51.9%)
12 of 46 third downs conversions allowed (26.1%)
110 total first downs
34:26 average time of possession
Opponents combined record: 32-36
Looks pretty close although NE had an edge in scoring and yardage differential.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ah...Brandin's knowledge of the playbook is basically this:
WR Cooks: fly route, fly route, fly route, block, fly route, fly route
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Same things were said about the eagles last year, but yeah, i'm becoming more confident about this game.
I think the pats keep a safety deep and just make the rams make first downs. The rams d will get to brady but i'll take brsdy and the pats o line/ running game against the rams d over a kuppless, half-gurleyed goff against the pats d. The rams can score some points but they arent the same without their two best chain movers.
If Gurley (or Anderson) plays well, all bets are off, but if not i'll take the pats by 6.5.
James White/Julian Edeman will be the story in this game, they wIll keep moving those chains eating clock, gobbling up clock. Pats winning time of possesion as that Rams O sits and watches a master at work as that Rams D starts to fade, then here comes Sony Michel and Burkheart gouging big holes in a worn out gang of Rams.
28-17 but really not that close.
bostonfred
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
I’ve said that time and time again. Kupps value to this team should not be underestimated.
Bossman
Footballguy
@Anarchy99
When was the last time NE had both Edelman and Gronk healthy and playing in a SB?
I remember Gronk out in one ... and playing on a bad ankle in one.
Edelman missed at least one with his knee.
Seems this SB, having both healthy, might be a rarity. Rams will need to figure out how to take away both.
Brady won't want to hold the ball for long. I expect Jules and Gronk to get lots of action in the short passing game ... especially if LA is able to stop the run.
When was the last time NE had both Edelman and Gronk healthy and playing in a SB?
I remember Gronk out in one ... and playing on a bad ankle in one.
Edelman missed at least one with his knee.
Seems this SB, having both healthy, might be a rarity. Rams will need to figure out how to take away both.
Brady won't want to hold the ball for long. I expect Jules and Gronk to get lots of action in the short passing game ... especially if LA is able to stop the run.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
2018 - Both playing
2017 - No Edelman
2016 - No Gronk
2014 - Jules 9-109-1, Gronk 6-68-1 vs. SEA
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I get that writers are trying to get clicks and put a slant on what they want to emphasize. I posted several pages back that Phillips coached teams have gone 3-6 against TB/BB teams, with 4 of the losses by 2 TD (and a couple by 3 TD).
On top of that, in the games played in DEN, NE had a bunch of players out that were injured or far from 100%. In one of the AFCCG, they rolled out a 97 year old Steven Jackson at RB (Brady led the team in rushing that day). Their OL was a mess and playing with a combination of second and third stringers. Edelman and Gronk were out, knocked out in game, or limited and returning from injuries. Brady was passing to guys like Keshawn Martin and Scott Chandler. I am not whining or complaining, as you can only play the guys that are healthy enough to play on your roster.
This time around, NE as a team is way healthier (and not playing in DEN). I suspect that will make a huge difference in how NE plays and how successful they will be. Maybe Phillips can dial up something to slow Brady and NE down, but I suspect LAR will have limited success in slowing down the Patriots offense.
[icon]
Insoxicated
We were underdogs in the AFC championship game, we opened as underdogs in the Super Bowl… It’s not really that hard.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I disagree a lit bit, as everyone knows if Michel is in the game he is most likely going to get the ball and it's almost always a running play. I think they may use Burkhead a little more like they did down the stretch against the Chiefs (harder to defend not knowing if it is a run or a pass). Maybe even times when they have White and Burkhead in at the same time. Maybe Michel has been working on running more routes, as that would really help right about now. But I think all three backs play a role.
From the talking heads that I have seen this week, it sounds like the Rams run defense has improved lately because they have been playing more zone and moved some guys closer to the LOS to clog the running lanes. Based on the film and X's and O's that I have seen, the best way to attack that approach is to run off tackle (jet sweeps or stretch plays for example) or to hit backs coming out of the backfield (like Kamara did against the Rams).
If I had to fathom a guess, NE will go back to the dink and dunk passing game to serve as a running game early on. At times I think they will bring back the hurry up to catch the Rams with the wrong personnel grouping on the field. That will help negate the pass rush and should tire out the DL. When the Rams adjust and start moving people around to cover more of the outside of the field, then NE will get back to shallow crosses and underneath stuff. Then they will go back to chewing clock by trying to get some runs more on the interior . . . which will lead to play action and more shots downfield. I also think they will look to target Peters, who from the highlights I have seen hasn't been great
Basically, if the Rams load up on DB's, then more jumbo sets with Gronk / Allen / Develin. If they load up on bigs, more slants and screens. By the end of the game, if things work out right, the Pats will have tired out the Rams by running the hurry up and then running the ball later on. Basically, I think they will pass to set up the run in the first half and run to set up the pass in the second half. And you just know they are going to try something we haven't seen before like an Edelman pass off of a sweep or a double reverse pitch back to Brady to hit Hogan on a deep crossing route.
It sounds easy enough, but executing things probably will be more difficult, especially if the Rams try to hit and hold the NE receivers like KC did. I have watched the NE / KC game a couple more times, and the Chiefs were grabbing guys on pretty much every play.
Bossman
Footballguy
Dink and dunk is what the Patriots have always done best. I would hope they start the game with that ...and not Sony Michele up the middle for 1 yard on every freakin first down.
Passes to James White again and again until his legs fall off. Then Gronk. Then Edelman. Hogan and Dorset could find themselves wide az open at times as LA over adjusts.
Michele will have his carries if NE can get up by 2 scores and wants to burn clock. Suppose they have to run it up in there once in a while to keep the defense honest though.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
If Gronk doesn't play because he made a 69 joke, I will quit watching football.
And probably move to Canada.
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
Never look to the betting line for such things. Vegas opened the line where it did to generate action. With New England being a public team and the way the Rams won sticking in the betting public's craw, all the money went down on New England and the line moved.
Vegas wanted money. Vegas got money. And Vegas, you may be surprised to find out, is notorious for keeping money.
Junior McSpiffy
Footballguy
This precise logic was used to explain why the Packers were gonna destroy the Denver Broncos, their mammoth line against Denver's undersized line.
Bossman
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
Not sure why NE comes out so slow in these SB's
In the Patriots last 3 SB's (SEA, ATL, PHI) ... Patriots have scored a total of 3 points in the first qtr. Not avg of 3 .... 3 total.
So they're avg is 1 point in the 1st qtr in these games.
If you follow the team then you know this is very un-Patriots like.
More times than not they typically drive the length of the field on their first drive and put up points.
If they stumble on their first drive they usually will answer on drive two ... but typically they are scoring early.
In 2018 NE was #2 in the league in 1st qtr scoring with 6.1 points avg ... only behind KC with 8.9.
As a Pats fan, I really hope they skip the whole "feeling you out / field position" process that they seem to do in these SB's and just get to it early.
In the Patriots last 3 SB's (SEA, ATL, PHI) ... Patriots have scored a total of 3 points in the first qtr. Not avg of 3 .... 3 total.
So they're avg is 1 point in the 1st qtr in these games.
If you follow the team then you know this is very un-Patriots like.
More times than not they typically drive the length of the field on their first drive and put up points.
If they stumble on their first drive they usually will answer on drive two ... but typically they are scoring early.
In 2018 NE was #2 in the league in 1st qtr scoring with 6.1 points avg ... only behind KC with 8.9.
As a Pats fan, I really hope they skip the whole "feeling you out / field position" process that they seem to do in these SB's and just get to it early.
[icon]
Insoxicated
Oh! So Vegas was SO smart they gave everyone 1pt on the Pats out of the gate, then immediately #### their pants and moved the line 4 points due to TOO many people taking Advantage of their generousity?
Sure sure, sweetheart :heatpat:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
In 8 SB games, last year was the first time they've scored ANY points in the first quarter. 3 points in 8 games. BB typically goes conservative early, and we all know his strategy is to get the opponent to make more mistakes than NE does.
Similar threads
