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WR Deebo Samuel, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
It didnt stop others. Most recently Curtis Samuel
The stats don't lie... and they say if you miss on both of those things you are likely to not be a fantasy wr1. Chances are better he is a decent wr2. I think Deebo has wr1 potential in ppr.
ETA: I realize Deebo doesnt meet these either, however he is darn close.
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EBF
Footballguy
Ended up getting Deebo in 3/5 rookie drafts.
I think he has a reasonable chance to lead all rookie WRs in receptions + yards, and to be the top FF WR on the 49ers next year. Athletically, he brings a lot to the table. Big, strong, and more explosive than you think. Dangerous in the open field.
Rookie WRs are a bit of a crapshoot, but his play style is about athleticism and RAC skills more than precise routes and technique, so I think he's going to be able to hit the ground running better than many of his rookie peers. You look at SF's WR group and they really don't have much, especially when it comes to consistent chain movers.
I'm thinking a JuJu --- Boldin range for his rookie year is possible if everything clicks right. He's a guy that I'd be looking to steal in best ball drafts and as a late round flyer in standard redrafts. In dynasty, I have him as a top 5 rookie in this draft, neck-and-neck with Brown and Harry among the WRs. I think he's a high floor player and very unlikely to be a flop. In my estimation he is the most talented WR on the Niners by some distance.
I think he has a reasonable chance to lead all rookie WRs in receptions + yards, and to be the top FF WR on the 49ers next year. Athletically, he brings a lot to the table. Big, strong, and more explosive than you think. Dangerous in the open field.
Rookie WRs are a bit of a crapshoot, but his play style is about athleticism and RAC skills more than precise routes and technique, so I think he's going to be able to hit the ground running better than many of his rookie peers. You look at SF's WR group and they really don't have much, especially when it comes to consistent chain movers.
I'm thinking a JuJu --- Boldin range for his rookie year is possible if everything clicks right. He's a guy that I'd be looking to steal in best ball drafts and as a late round flyer in standard redrafts. In dynasty, I have him as a top 5 rookie in this draft, neck-and-neck with Brown and Harry among the WRs. I think he's a high floor player and very unlikely to be a flop. In my estimation he is the most talented WR on the Niners by some distance.
If your model is predicting that Curtis Samuel is on track to be a WR1, then you need a new model.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
No. You can search my thread if you wish to see it. The model rules out people who are unlikely to be wr1. It's a quick skim off the top to take away likely misses.
Its like: not all crazy people are serial killers, but all serial killers are crazy.
Not all people who meet the criteria are wr1s, but 90% of wr1s meet these criteria (>25% dominator, >50% breakout age) over the last decade.
To go one step further 70% of wr1s over the last decade meet >30% dominator and >50th percentile breakout age.
ETA: fantasy wr1s in ppr not nfl
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What is the fudge factor involved when you admit that Deebo doesn't meet the criteria either, but is "darn close"?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
That's a good question. I would say it's a hard line cut off for me in general. If someone meets the dominator % but is within 3 percentage points of 50% for a breakout season qualification, I'd probably consider him more than a guy who misses on both criteria. The biggest red flag for Campbell is his breakout age to me. It's quite late.
FTR I passed on Deebo 5 times, taking AJ Brown, JJAW, Isabella at WR before Deebo at 2.4 (he was last man standing). However, considering the alternatives were Campbell and Hardman, I was quite pleased Deebo was last left. I did consider him at 2.1. I think he has solid PPR potential and has a greater chance at wr1 than Campbell by a lot. I think he is a fairly safe WR with a high floor.
Conversely, I took Campbell ahead of all of these guys and think he’s the surest bet for a true WR1 out of the entire lot.
Hilton isn’t going to be around for much longer, but Luck and that offense will.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yeah most people who like Campbell see him as the default WR1 in this offense if/when Hilton leaves. I disagree. If I'm wrong and he does, then he has a good route toward being a fantasy wr1, but he would be a significant outlier. So the odds are not in his favor.
IND has a LOT of cap space in 2020... They could go out and sign a pretty talented wr if they wanted to. Campbell is more of a gadget wr my mind, but I'm plenty wrong in other places so maybe I'm wrong about him.
Deebo and Campbell are very different types of WRs. I see Deebos talent translating better for fantasy success. But Campbell is in a better offense right now. So we will see I guess. IMO JJAW is better than all of them 5 years from now.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
For those of you who are in low 1st round and high 2nd round, they probably are sweet spot to select receivers with the highest ceiling. Deebo, Campbell, and JJAW are on that list.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I know this isn't the Campbell thread but what are your thoughts on his breakout age when you factor in that Ohio State is not a passing program? Last year represents a massive outlier for the program as a whole. He's only one of 5 WRs to ever post 1k yards with Ohio in a single season and Haskins was far and away the most productive single season QB in their history. Makes me wonder if you just throw him out as far as models go when there's so much outlier stuff going on in his breakout year
I think it's also fair to ask what the model said about someone like Michael Thomas who also came out of that school and subsequently excelled in the NFL. I'm not trying to compare the two as talents, but I think the college history is similar.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
wgoldsph
Footballguy
How can you leave Isabella off the highest ceiling list? Imo highest ceiling lowest floor of the group.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Thomas is one of the few outliers. Its listed in my threadtangfoot said:
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Michael Thomas had a 36.9% (79 percentile) dominator... even in an offense that doesnt pass well. That's huge.
Campbell is at 23.5% (31 percentile)
From Player Profiler: For example, a 35+% dominator indicates that a wide receiver has the potential to be a team’s No. 1 WR and/or a high caliber contributor.
Saying Campbell can do it because he went to the same school as Michael Thomas, and he did it, is apples to oranges. VERY different dominator scores
FTR: I'm not extremely high on Deebo as I am other wrs in this class, but I'd much prefer him to Campell... 10/10 times. Campbell reportedly is going to play in the slot at Indy... and reportedly running a bunch of gadget plays and bubble screens. Good luck with that production. Meanwhile Samuel is the favorite for the Flanker position. which is the most productive in that offensive scheme
I'm not saying it's impossible for Campbell to be a good wr, or elite fantasy option. Based on history, it is unlikely and he would be an outlier. So would Deebo. I miss enough, I dont need to start betting on outliers
Campbell is at 23.5% (31 percentile)
From Player Profiler: For example, a 35+% dominator indicates that a wide receiver has the potential to be a team’s No. 1 WR and/or a high caliber contributor.
Saying Campbell can do it because he went to the same school as Michael Thomas, and he did it, is apples to oranges. VERY different dominator scores
FTR: I'm not extremely high on Deebo as I am other wrs in this class, but I'd much prefer him to Campell... 10/10 times. Campbell reportedly is going to play in the slot at Indy... and reportedly running a bunch of gadget plays and bubble screens. Good luck with that production. Meanwhile Samuel is the favorite for the Flanker position. which is the most productive in that offensive scheme
I'm not saying it's impossible for Campbell to be a good wr, or elite fantasy option. Based on history, it is unlikely and he would be an outlier. So would Deebo. I miss enough, I dont need to start betting on outliers
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Except Campbell can do it. Factual statement. Whether or not he does, another matter. Succeeding would not make him an outlier either, generally speaking. Almost every reciever could be considered an outlier on one metric or another. But it shouldn't surprise anybody when a mid second does well.
Back to Deebo, sort of. I know you like him, which is cool. In doing so you look past the break out age and dominator thing. Yeah, you have to consider context with these metrics, I get it. Why not with Campbell too? A lot of posters have offered reasonable explanations for his late and un-impressive stats at Ohio St.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
The dominator is fine. It's quite a bit low from what PP says a future NFL wr1 should be. but it meets the 1b threshold of 25% for a future wr1 or wr2 in fantasy
The breakout age is very close. 3 percentage points off. I wouldn't say I'm looking past that. I downgraded Deebo to WR6 and 14th rookie overall, largely because of it. Deebo is the top player on my trade bait. I'd rather trade him for a future 1st round pick if I could.
What I like about Deebo is his route running, toughness, and his hands. I think he has an opportunity comparable to Harry, Metcalf, and Hollywood. In the NFL it's all about opportunity.
He would be an exception, outlier, whatever we want to call it, to the wr1 (or wr2) miss detector if he were to have a wonderful career. IMO we could go back and look at his stats and say, well he wasnt that far off from meeting them. I looked for possible reasons for exceptions long enough ago. Marquise Brown was a possible one to consider since he went to JUCO and couldnt break out until he did. There are 1 or 2 more. Its not that you bend the rules for them, but you look at the data and you make a decision for yourself. of all the players who missed, Deebo was at the top for me.
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Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Is Pettis now a WR3 with WR2 upside now with Deebo being WR2 with WR1 upside? I guess what I’m asking is Pettis no longer the guy? Pettis was drafted 8 picks later last year as the 4th WR taken.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
There are people on each side of that coin. I'm in the, it remains to be seen camp, either guy could emerge.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
That’s what I figured. Maybe just try to acquire both as one will likely become viable.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I never really liked Pettis TBH. I'd say it depends on camp. Deebo is projecting to start in Garcons spot, which is the most productive in that offense. FWIW
Now we're on the same page. I think there's been some pretty good success among the most advanced rookie route runners in the past few seasons and "immediate" NFL/fantasy success.
Guys like Diggs, Kupp and to a much lesser extent due to injury, Coutee.
It's the reason I'm bullish on both Riley Ridley and Terry McLaurin this season as well.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He reminds of Ty Mongomery more than Anquon Boldin.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Jimmy G threw 5 consecutive INTs in practice today.he tossed 3 INTs in the opening game last season.
just sayin ..
Jimmy G is NOT ready for prime time.. he's a lesser QB who will kill the fantasy value of studs like Deebo and Kittle.
just sayin ..
Jimmy G is NOT ready for prime time.. he's a lesser QB who will kill the fantasy value of studs like Deebo and Kittle.
jm192
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Hell a stud is an under sell. He's a shoe-in hall of famer at this point. World beater. Best to play the game at any position ever.
And zero INTs in the next two games. And those 3 INTs came against Minnesota, one of the stronger defensees in the league and a top 5 pass defense. And his best receivers behind Kittle were a fullback (Juszczyk) and a rookie kick returner (Pettis). But I get it, I also don't let the facts get in the way of a good story. I mean, that same week, Fitzmagic threw 4 TDs and +400 yards, rushed for another TD, and beat the Saints. He's so ready for prime time that he is on the verge of losing the starting job on another Florida team to the Cards' sloppy seconds.
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Two games played, two 45 yard plays in the can.
https://twitter.com/GamecockSplash/status/1160393039640236034
https://twitter.com/WillGav/status/1163636219911299075
Hype train about to leave the station...
https://twitter.com/GamecockSplash/status/1160393039640236034
https://twitter.com/WillGav/status/1163636219911299075
Hype train about to leave the station...
