Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Why do you say that Sanders will “probably” be out? Edelman suffered a rib cartilage injury earlier in the year, and he didn’t miss any time. From my understanding, it’s just a pain management/ tolerance issue.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
His stats are all over the place. He's a rookie so that has to be factored in but he hasn't hit double digits B2B yet so we're hoping for a first in Week 11. They run the ball A LOT in San Fran and can probably run over the Cards if they really want.
I like his upside, I own him if that matters but I can give you a bevy of reasons he won't hit this week. Pascal was supposed to be a shoe in last week...
Last edited by a moderator:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
It was 1 for 23 when I left the house and then it somehow got to be 8/134 and I also see that it got to be a shootout and SF didn't run the ball very well, wonderful production, had to flex him today but I also think you have to feel lucky that a couple chips fell your way that might not happen every week. Bye week, Flex option but I wouldn't hit the Auto switch just yet.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
And we have broken that barrier so it pushes the ceiling on this guy a little higher. Still think Sanders injured and Kittle not playing, could sell high.
Could be a little of Sanders and Kittle being banged up, could be getting used to NFL speed, and getting a rapport with Jimmy G. Also could be that the running game has been ineffective the last 3 games, and the defense has popped some leaks.
Sell high is relative, but I don't see any reason he won't be a top-40 WR down the stretch, and obviously could be more depending on Sanders/Kittle. I'd expect the defense to continue to show some cracks against Green bay next week. If you can sell him to somebody who thinks these last 2 weeks are the new normal, then great.
I'd be super encouraged in dynasty leagues. Could make a case for him as the #1 rookie WR going forward(I'm a huge Metcalf guy, so I prefer him, but a case is there for Deebo)
whole-show
Footballguy
Participating in practice today with no contact jersey per Cam Inman
whole-show
Footballguy
Practicing again today with blue no contact jersey per Nick Wagoner
Phantom Knight
Footballguy
What I want to know is fast forwarding to week 13 and beyond...assuming both Sanders and Samuel are healthy, is (and if so which) one of them the clear #1 or does it become an unpredictable mish mash?
I am casting my teary-eyed vote for mish mash.
I am casting my teary-eyed vote for mish mash.
Unfortunately for us owners of Deebo and/ or Sanders, the correct answer is likely Kittle.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Soooo glad I traded Matt Ryan for him a month ago in one of my dynasty leagues. He hadn't really broken out yet at that time, but the writing was on the wall with his physical play and the Niners clearly being an up and coming elite team. I think he, McLaurin, and AJ Brown are going become elite WRs in the league.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
The trainwreck emoji was in jest in response to @EBF's second straight week of "train leaving the station!" posts following Deebo Samuel making a play in the third quarter of preseason games. And these are the first and second preseason games, no less. It's really grasping at hope more than anything else. There's just nothing that's adding up to him being a stud.
His high 2nd round draft capital bodes well for him as it relates to opportunities and he does have some plus athletic traits. I think he's a guy that will play in the league for 8+ years, and be solid at that. But I just fail to see the optimism as it relates to any sort of trajectory above "meh" fantasy starter. He's a guy I'd be happy with in the early 2nd of rookie drafts, because I think he's a safe ppr asset. But stud I'm not seeing. Will be fun to watch this one play out.
- Middling college career?
- Failing to truly stand out amongst thoroughly uninspiring WR competition?
- QB that seems to be regressing by the day?
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
So much for this guy...
The Frankman
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Zyphros
Footballguy
Let me preface this by saying I love Deebo as a player, and think he will be underrated for his entire career.
I'd trade him in dynasty for a 1st round easily. And since he cost a 1st, it's possible you can get more than that.
You look at Deebo's comps and possible career arc, you see guys like Golden Tate, Christian Kirk, maybe Steve Smith. Shorter, stocky, tough type of players. When were any of them widely viewed highly as a fantasy asset? Part of it is we as fantasy players don't want to view him highly even though there is good production but he'll be a WR2 for fantasy purposes his entire career, at best. Maybe have a WR1 season sprinkled in. I think he'll be more than solid enough to maintain value, but he could always be pushed down rankings by new comers. 2020 alone has 6 WR's I view as potential WR1's. Depending on my roster I might rather take a shot with one of them rather than hold onto Deebo.
I'd trade him in dynasty for a 1st round easily. And since he cost a 1st, it's possible you can get more than that.
You look at Deebo's comps and possible career arc, you see guys like Golden Tate, Christian Kirk, maybe Steve Smith. Shorter, stocky, tough type of players. When were any of them widely viewed highly as a fantasy asset? Part of it is we as fantasy players don't want to view him highly even though there is good production but he'll be a WR2 for fantasy purposes his entire career, at best. Maybe have a WR1 season sprinkled in. I think he'll be more than solid enough to maintain value, but he could always be pushed down rankings by new comers. 2020 alone has 6 WR's I view as potential WR1's. Depending on my roster I might rather take a shot with one of them rather than hold onto Deebo.
EBF
Footballguy
Seems like you are overrating picks and underrating Samuel. Even if he's just a WR2 for FF teams, that's a pretty good outcome. First round rookie picks have maybe a 35-50% fail rate. You are going to end up with a lot of Laquon Treadwell and David Montgomery. So while I can see maybe taking a top 2-3 pick for Samuel if there's somebody in the pool that you love, his remaining career is worth more than a random future 1st.
I'm not sure which Steve Smith you mean. If it's the Panthers version, he was a great FF asset. If it's the Giants version, he really wasn't similar to Deebo. The Kirk/Tate comparisons don't really work for me either. Deebo is much bigger than Kirk or Tate. The fact that he's as fast as those guys AND much bigger/stronger is what makes him a little bit freakish. When you look at his body type, he shouldn't be as fast as he is -- but he is.
Here's a relevant fact: He ranked 67th in the NFL in targets, but was tied for 10th in the NFL in "big" catches (20+ yards). In other words, he had crazy efficiency at breaking long plays. When you watch the Niners play these days, he is already one of their best offensive players and is impacting the game in a variety of ways. He averaged about 15 ppg in PPR from weeks 9-17. Fluke? Mirage? Pinnacle? It's always possible, but he's already reached a level that you can only hope your rookie picks ever hit, so I can't see taking many college WRs over him right now.
Zyphros
Footballguy
The profile itself still doesn't fit a top12 dynasty WR. Ever. Maybe he's an outlier though. It's very possible. That's partly why I said Steve Smith (Panthers) was the one I was referring to, he's a bit of an outlier himself. Just for comparisons sake I went back and looked at recent years of PPR points. Over the past 3 years (2017, 2018 and 2019) you can look at PPR scoring for the top12 WR's cuts off real close to 200 points. Steve Smith had 9 seasons above 200 points. At best he's Steve Smith who is arguably considered one of the toughest WR's ever. With 9 seasons as a fantasy WR1. Best case scenario. Deebo off to a great start his rookie year coming in at 132 points, with 800 yards and came in at WR32. Plenty of room to grow, and I think he will, but will he ascend to WR1 territory? I highly doubt it, although I do think he'll improve a bunch and be valuable.
Maybe the play is to wait 2-3 years for him to ascend higher and sell. But the industry itself doesn't usually keep these guys ranked highly, or very often if at all. Even if he gets there, is he going to have that kind of trade value? Again I doubt it. He'll be a better version of Tyler Lockett if that happens. Produces really well but never viewed highly. If there are enough WR's you like in the 1st this year, I don't dislike that option trading him away for someone with a better profile. That's why I said it would depend on my team, if I can afford the risk associated with it, I would do it for one of my top WR's. If I need the current production and the likely ascending value, I keep Deebo.
As you stated you still have to hit on that pick.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
The problem I see with trading him now is that the picks are uncertain. There's enough time for the 2020 crop to get hurt, arrested, etc., and there could be another year like 2019 where quite a few top rated WRs go to "bad situations" so trading without seeing landing spots is risky. Once we see the landing spots we're into draft-frenzy mode where draft picks see their value increase as owners get all googly eyed and overvalue the picks.
I'll likely hold. I love the situation (with or without Manny in 2020) and have a lot of faith in the 49ers offense to sustain the value of the offensive players for FF purposes.
I'll likely hold. I love the situation (with or without Manny in 2020) and have a lot of faith in the 49ers offense to sustain the value of the offensive players for FF purposes.
EBF
Footballguy
The problem is that your profile is pretty arbitrary and doesn't necessarily have any predictive value. If you pick a couple random "meh" guys and arbitrarily lump him in with them, of course it's going to suit the argument that his outlook is also meh. It's only convincing if the comparisons seem credible, and that can be a challenge with football players because it's somewhat rare for them to be exactly the same as other players. Usually there are unique aspects that you have to account for.
For example, what "profile" did Tyreek Hill fit as a smurfy RB/KR with minimal WR production? What "profile" did Keenan Allen fit as a tall, lanky WR with horrible 40 speed? What "profile" did Anquan Boldin and his 4.70 40 times fit? There are aspects of these players that are traditional and aspects that are frightening because they don't jive with expectations. None of these guys looked like obvious top 10 dynasty WRs until they were. The challenge when you are evaluating players is to try to put all the variables together to capture what the player brings.
With Deebo, what makes him unique is that he has an abnormally high weight for his height, almost in RB/TE territory, and yet also possesses big play ability. The fact that he runs 4.4x and is a huge RAC threat at these dimensions is just unusual and different. I can see some superficial similarities to Kirk and Tate (though he's a lot bulkier than either), but I can also see some parallels with greater success stories (aspects of his game remind me of Boldin, Tyreek, and DJ Moore). It's hard to say "this is exactly what he is" when there's nobody out there exactly like him.
I've not been keeping up with dynasty rankings to see where he'll be in the offseason lists. If he's ranked as a top 10 WR then there will be argument for selling. Is he the next Andre Johnson or Julio? I don't think he looks that special and I view him more as a dynasty WR2 than a guy who is going to carry your team on his own, but he's already in the NFL, producing startable FF stats, and looking like a dynamic weapon. That's the best-case scenario for your rookie pick, so I don't see myself cashing out just to roll the dice again. It's like trading a dollar for a coin flip that might win you a dollar. It's pointless risk unless you are dead certain that a particular prospect is going to hit bigger, and that's a pretty small target to aim at given how big he looks to have hit.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Personally I have Deebo ranked as WR21 in dynasty. I can't speak to others rankings or why. The other guys you mentioned, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Anquan Boldin, all have defining features. Sure there were negatives, but their ability to excel at certain things is what pushed them over the top. Maybe Deebo is next in line to do that because he's excellent at breaking tackles, big plays, and YAC. I fail to see the 49er's utilizing him THAT well for him to be a top12 asset. Maybe you do see that, I don't know. I wouldn't completely rule it out, I'm just saying his value is likely to be capped.
To use your analogy though, I think it's more like flipping a .75 cent coin with a chance to win a dollar. I'd be fine with holding him for a bit to see if I can get more, but the allure of someone with a higher perceived ceiling is what I'd be chasing. Sounds like we just disagree with the risk factor of keeping/trading Deebo though which is fine.
To use your analogy though, I think it's more like flipping a .75 cent coin with a chance to win a dollar. I'd be fine with holding him for a bit to see if I can get more, but the allure of someone with a higher perceived ceiling is what I'd be chasing. Sounds like we just disagree with the risk factor of keeping/trading Deebo though which is fine.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
A sell high IMO. Kittle was hurt this year, Hurd was out...just see him being a long term WR2 or WR3 versus WR1.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
A mid 1st round pick in the previous season that hit is worth more to me than a mid first round pick the next season no matter the upside of the incoming class. Nobody went into the draft last year and said deebo was a top 10 player in the entire position. But years of top 20? That's a win.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yeah would have to be a top 5 pick. I’m not moving him for the risk of a late 1st. No upside there. Even in this class, he’s what you hope to get out of that late 1st.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What profile are you referring to?Zyphros said:
I am guessing there is something wrong with the framework of the profile if it leads you to this conclusion.
This season WR 12 scored 237 points. Odell Beckham scored 203 points this season and is WR 25 last season Emmanuel Sander scored 200 points and was WR 23 the year before Robby Anderson scored 200 points and was WR 18 so your 200 point threshold for top 12 WR seems to be off.
Over the last 3 seasons WR 12 has averaged 241 points in PPR format.
While I can see a scenario where Samuel could be a top 12 WR I wouldn't really count on it. It is very difficult for any WR to perform this well, especially for more than one season. In addition to that the WR who do manage to do it, a lot of them stay up there for most of their careers like Julio Jones, which is part of why it is so hard for a WR to crack that echelon of greatness sustainably,
I am not even sure why this is the target or bench mark?
Most of the rookies drafted in 2020 don't have a very realistic shots and performing that well either.
Samuel was WR 32 this season as a rookie. He scored 191 points (close to the 200 point threshold you were talking about) He performed as a WR 3. He was 33rd in PPG scored.
I think he did what I expected him to. Show he can play and make some big plays at times, but to be inconsistent. He was a rookie after all. I expected him to contribute right away because of his ability to run the ball and be used in very high percentage ways that do not take as much skill, technique and refinement of a veteran WR.
You have talked about comparing him to Steve Smtih. I wouldnt do that with any player really, SS was a pretty unique guy.
Deebo in my view is similar to DJ Moore of the Panthers, or if you want to go back further than that Percy Harvin. I remember thinking Harvin didn't have WR one potential but if everything lines up right it can happen.
While I don't expect him to be a WR one I do think he can be a WR two for fantasy and perhaps with some consistency. If not I think he performs as a WR 3 for fantasy for many years ahead.
The only rookie WR from 2019 who I would put ahead of him is AJ Brown and honestly I think Samuel is in a better situation than Brown is.
Last edited by a moderator:
cloppbeast
Footballguy
How many of these incoming wrs get taken before the top of the 2nd? 2 or 4, I don't know... So even if you want to ignore his rookie year, based of draft capital he's somewhere between this year's 1.06 and 1.12. But why would you want to ignore his rookie year?
Faust
MVP
@EBF - raises the compelling argument that we somewhat know what we have in Deebo in that he appears to be an ascending young WR who even if he maxes out at a WR 2/3 level - that would be a decent fantasy football asset to have. There’s also a chance that his ceiling could be potentially be higher than that with some of the explosive yards after the catch and big play traits that he has flashed. Will Deebo settle into consistent WR 1 territory? Unlikely but not impossible and he can be a contributor as a consistent WR 2.
Classic “known commodity” side of the debate IMHO. I respect this viewpoint. I have gone this direction at times in my approach.
@Dr. Dan states the following:
The risk with this second approach is the “shiny new toy” syndrome where we start falling in love with the perceived strengths of a particular rookie draft class (I am guilty of doing this many times and find myself doing it again with the 2020 NFL Draft Class).
@wgoldsph states it well:
Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?
What Are an NFL First-Round Pick's Odds for Success?
There used to be some pretty amazing articles on this stuff from Tony Villiotti on National Football Post; however, his tables are no longer displayed in the first article linked:
GAMES STARTED BY DRAFT ROUND
LET THE DRAFT HOLIDAYS BEGIN
The 2020 Draft Class does appear to be stacked; however, not all of these players (swift, taylor, etn, dobbins, harris, lamb, jeudy, higgins, shenault, Ruggs, johnson, reagor, akers, etc.) will turn into top producers - some will become outright busts and some will settle into fantasy #2s or possibly fantasy #3s at their positions.
There is no right or wrong answer here in which side you prefer to go with in keeping Deebo or wanting the allure of a top 12 rookie pick in the 2020 NFL Draft Class but man I enjoy the debate and discussion - this is what makes the Shark Pool great!
~ Faust
Classic “known commodity” side of the debate IMHO. I respect this viewpoint. I have gone this direction at times in my approach.
@Dr. Dan states the following:
And this:
And @Zyphros echoes a similar sentiment with this statement:
What these two quality posters are going for here is more of the upside / swing for the fences approach - willing to gamble that any of the WR listed have more alluring traits that are more likely to produce WR 1 production (or RB 1 production in the case of the RBs listed). I don’t necessarily disagree with this approach and have also gone in this direction at times. I also respect this viewpoint.
The risk with this second approach is the “shiny new toy” syndrome where we start falling in love with the perceived strengths of a particular rookie draft class (I am guilty of doing this many times and find myself doing it again with the 2020 NFL Draft Class).
@wgoldsph states it well:
Statistically we should be more disciplined in our approach to rookies as we should always remember that the hit rate from the first round is usually around a coin flip:
Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?
What Are an NFL First-Round Pick's Odds for Success?
There used to be some pretty amazing articles on this stuff from Tony Villiotti on National Football Post; however, his tables are no longer displayed in the first article linked:
GAMES STARTED BY DRAFT ROUND
LET THE DRAFT HOLIDAYS BEGIN
The 2020 Draft Class does appear to be stacked; however, not all of these players (swift, taylor, etn, dobbins, harris, lamb, jeudy, higgins, shenault, Ruggs, johnson, reagor, akers, etc.) will turn into top producers - some will become outright busts and some will settle into fantasy #2s or possibly fantasy #3s at their positions.
There is no right or wrong answer here in which side you prefer to go with in keeping Deebo or wanting the allure of a top 12 rookie pick in the 2020 NFL Draft Class but man I enjoy the debate and discussion - this is what makes the Shark Pool great!
~ Faust
Last edited by a moderator:
Faust
MVP
I also want to thank @fruity pebbles @Biabreakable @cloppbeast and @FreshiZ for adding good posts into the discussion.
chinawildman
Footballguy
I like Deebo a lot as a niners fan but I'd have to agree with this... In an ideal shanahan offense, the only player that eats consistently is the TE. Also overlooked is the fact that half of the niners starting D was injured in the 2nd half of the season leading to a lot more shootouts.
Player A- 52-1051-8 on 84 targets, 3-60-1 rushing
Player B- 57-802-3 on 81 targets, 14-159-3 rushing
One is being called a complete stud and the other is being called a sell for any 2020 first you can get. Both have had big plays, as an owner of both in a couple leagues I’m happy with both and will hold them instead of hoping that I pick the right rookie again
Player B- 57-802-3 on 81 targets, 14-159-3 rushing
One is being called a complete stud and the other is being called a sell for any 2020 first you can get. Both have had big plays, as an owner of both in a couple leagues I’m happy with both and will hold them instead of hoping that I pick the right rookie again
I am assuming A is AJ Brown, and B is Samuel. I think they are both worth owning in dynasty leagues. 150 yards and 3 TD is not nothing, but I think the main difference is their role within the offense. AJ Brown appears to be the clear #1 WR in TEN, while SF spreads the ball around more so Deebo does not appear to be as involved (though that seemed to change toward the end of the year). I would be happy with either in dynasty. I think I would actually like Samuel more in dynasty, it feels like the 49ers realize he needs the ball in his hands more and they were working on making that happen toward the end of regular season.
Last edited by a moderator:
The Captain
Footballguy
Beast
The Frankman
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
