timschochet
Footballguy
Time for Amy and Pete and Michael and Liz and Tom to quit. Sorry.
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***Official Joe Biden Campaign Thread (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I'd be surprised if any drop out before Tues. Klobuchar and Warren have home-state primaries, Burrigieg was calling it a two-person debate (including him) a few days ago, and Bloomberg's campaign kind of counts on division of delegates. I don't know Steyer's game exc. he invested heavily in SC to catapult him further,
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Shula-holic
Footballguy
You're right. There's only two with any realistic shot now. Some of the field clearing ends the worry for Biden hitting 15% in CA which is crucial. At the very least Steyer and Amy have go go. The best case for Biden is to get multiple candidates over 15%. But given the current configuration nobody but Bernie may make that cut.
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ren hoek
Footballguy
I'll give credit to Biden here, I would have never guessed people's vague emotional ties to Obama would carry him this far. He's a horrible candidate. Like, have they watched the same person I have the past several months? I'm not sure how hard Dems have gone after his 'tough on crime' record- the crime bill, 'predators,' his views on marijuana- but the GOP will if push comes to shove.
Sanders was very recently polling #1 with black voters nationwide- that's a fact. Although I thought Sanders was competitive on that front with Biden in SC as well, and apparently Biden killed it with African Americans, so who knows.
Perhaps there is also some substance to the idea of 'conservative black voters' in SC that perhaps don't care for Sanders' more progressive ideas. I do wonder who Trump people in SC voted for. If I wanted an opponent that Trump will absolutely steamroll in November I'd vote for Biden all day.
Sanders was very recently polling #1 with black voters nationwide- that's a fact. Although I thought Sanders was competitive on that front with Biden in SC as well, and apparently Biden killed it with African Americans, so who knows.
Perhaps there is also some substance to the idea of 'conservative black voters' in SC that perhaps don't care for Sanders' more progressive ideas. I do wonder who Trump people in SC voted for. If I wanted an opponent that Trump will absolutely steamroll in November I'd vote for Biden all day.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
I'm oddly happy for Tim tonight.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
The delegates Bernie may win in the South won't be from Democratic/majority black congressional districts, his best shot at picking off delegates is in the white suburbs.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah. It will be awesome to be left with 3 old white guys. The entire Democratic Party is just so freaking awful. These voters are morons.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Biden is around 12-13% in CA. He needs to get at least 15% to get any delegates. This could be the deciding point of the primary process.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
Yeah, Trump and his peeps are pumping Bernie up while trying to sabotage Biden with Burisma because they're scared of Bernie.
I don’t think Joe is a great candidate but again, Bernie gets crushed if he’s around in November.
ren hoek
Footballguy
I don’t think they want to ‘pump up Bernie’ so much as exploit the divide in the Democratic Party. A contested convention where the real state primary winner loses the nom to superdelegates and party hacks would be a catastrophe for them, and they know it.Yeah, Trump and his peeps are pumping Bernie up while trying to sabotage Biden with Burisma because they're scared of Bernie.
I don’t think Joe is a great candidate but again, Bernie gets crushed if he’s around in November.
They know the Party doesn’t want Sanders. It’s smart to position themselves as the good guys whenever the establishment inevitably tries to screw him again.
It is interesting that you clutch pearls for Biden and write off Sanders. You don’t think Biden’s inability to generate real enthusiasm will be a problem? The fact that he often can’t remember what state he is in, can’t form complete sentences, can’t think on his feet well enough to remember he’s running for Prez and not the Senate? Biden is the WORST candidate to run against Trump.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I think one thing to note is the ability to draw black voters. I really don’t know if Biden would do any better or worse than Hillary in this regard, but I do think black turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philly could determine this election.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
bigmarc27
Footballguy
Sure he can. Once people start dropping out they’ll go to the moderate. Anyone voting for Pete, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, or Steyer will find their way to Biden (or Biden people to one of them if he were to drop). Bernie is appealing to hippies and hipsters, that’s not enough. If Biden is the one in the moderate group to pull away, he’ll grab a hip VP like Pete or Yang, and he’ll take the convention.
It’s the same as 4 years ago. It’ll be a contested convention and they’re not pinning their hopes on Sanders.
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fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
MSNBC centrist fantasies
identikit
Footballguy
bigmarc27
Footballguy
So you think someone whose policy philosophies that align as moderate Democrat are just going to skip to Bernie Sanders instead of a similar minded candidate?
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
It really seems like the dems are trying to blow the election on purpose with this weak field, and just going back to being the opposition to Trump party.
Reminds me of when the GOP put Palin on the ticket as that assured their defeat.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Lots of voters aren’t driven by ideology. There are multiple surveys out that show Sanders as the second choice for lots of voters that are currently supporting one of the more moderate candidates.
ETA: You are making the exact same mistake everybody made during the 2016 GOP primaries. It was common understanding at that time that the non-Trump supporters would consolidate behind the non-Trump candidates as candidates dropped out. It didn’t happen.
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Gawain
Footballguy
From Feb 19th:
Sanders is a higher 2nd choice than Biden while having a larger % of first choice options as well.
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/19/807047941/poll-sanders-rises-but-socialism-isnt-popular-with-most-americans
Most of the Warren support comes from folks with Bernie as #1. The consolidating to the non-Sanders option is a nice theory, but isn't supported by any polling of second choices.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Yes. Polls back this. Most people don’t want to support a candidate mentally inferior to Trump
ren hoek
Footballguy
bigmarc27
Footballguy
ren hoek
Footballguy
Yes- his turnout with working class voters and minorities has been extraordinary. Especially as they trend younger. I remain convinced that Sanders is the only candidate that would actually beat Trump. But it’d be an uphill battle for any of them.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Exactly. I’m a Pete fan, and there is zero chance I vote for Biden in the primary. Even if Pete drops out. Literally zero chance.
General election is a different story.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
Let’s revisit in November. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. As it stands today, I think you’re way out of touch.
caustic
Footballguy
He needs 15% statewide to get any of the *at-large* delegates—but only 144 of California’s 415 delegates are at-large. The other 271 are allocated by congressional district, so if Biden falls short of 15% statewide but hits 15% in several CDs he’ll still end up with quite a few delegates.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I suspect so as well. The funny thing is whether Bloomberg helps or hurts Biden is whether or not he gets over 15% as well to further divide CA's statewide allocation. If he fails, it likely helps Sanders that he takes Biden vote in individual districts. If he gets over 15% it obviously blunts Bernie's statewide haul. That's not to assume all Bloomberg voters would go to Biden, but I do think a larger share would go to Biden as opposed to Bernie.
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
It would make sense to think they would go to another moderate but Morning Consult's second choice polling has slightly more Pete supporters going to Sanders than Biden, and of course a lot more Warren supporters going his way.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I might...have not made up my mind yet going into tomorrow.bigmarc27 said:
Was a Pete supporter. Biden may align more with me than Sanders...but I am not close to sure he has a better shot against Trump than Bernie.
IMO...Bernie brings more fire and passion to rally people to him than Biden. Biden is boring milquetoast Hillary 2.0 (trying to campaign like he is Obama...and he isn't).
timschochet
Footballguy
Here’s the point I’ve made from the beginning:
1. A Biden vs Trump race will be a referendum on Trump’s performance in office.
2. A Sanders vs Trump race will be a referendum on the ideas of Bernie Sanders.
This is why, IMO, putting everything else aside, Joe Biden is a better shot to beat Donald Trump. Under nearly any other circumstances Biden would be by far the weaker candidate. But in this situation he’s actually the stronger candidate because the race won’t be about him.
1. A Biden vs Trump race will be a referendum on Trump’s performance in office.
2. A Sanders vs Trump race will be a referendum on the ideas of Bernie Sanders.
This is why, IMO, putting everything else aside, Joe Biden is a better shot to beat Donald Trump. Under nearly any other circumstances Biden would be by far the weaker candidate. But in this situation he’s actually the stronger candidate because the race won’t be about him.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I've sworn off horse race politics, but given that I don't think the CW about Biden or Sanders excitement/disengagement factors is really that significant. The main factor IMO in 2016 was that Hillary and Trump were neck and neck through 2015-16 as having the worst favorability ratings in presidential race history. When Trump finally won he won in exit polls for people who hated them both slightly edging in favor of Trump. - Here - per Fox, which has the last poll - Trump is still draining at -11 fav/unfav, while Sanders comes in at +2 and Biden at +4. I think they both line up well against Trump. I do think getting the black vote out in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philly is key and I believe Biden has an edge there over Sanders. I realize that Sanders has or should have an edge among young and working class whites, however I'm guessing there's concern about the union insurance plans in those states which might be a drag. I really don't pretend to know, that's just some off the cuff thinking. I still like them both vs Trump because of the favorability fundamental.
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bigmarc27
Footballguy
Biden isn’t as exciting, but I just don’t see any way Bernie’s ideology can possibly win. He’s coasting on “eat the rich” which is a lot of fun in theory, but the numbers don’t match. He has fanatical support right now, but I gotta believe at this point you either love him or you don’t, and if you don’t then why would you want to vote for him? He’s the candidate that’ll send me to write in because it’ll be just more of the same garbage. It’s the opposite end of the spectrum, but it’s the same net effect. Nothing gets done and we get a bunch of anger and antagonism.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Another factor is the lack of a serious 3rd party candidate emerging. I don't see a Johnson or McMullin emerging so far, and apparently the Green Party is finally moving away from Stein.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
This makes a lot of sense. Depends on whether you are more pro Bernie or anti Trump.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
One thing that gives me a little hope no matter who the Democratic candidate is the possibility that some left-leaning voters might have sat out the 2016 election because the perception was that Hillary had it in the bag. I doubt that will be the case this time around.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Still trailing, but old joe is rolling like a locomotive down the stretch.
https://www.electionbettingodds.com
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/week.html
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squistion
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Note that Bernie is slightly more likely than Biden to win the Democratic nomination, but even so, as of right now, Biden is more likely than Bernie to be the next President.
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As of right now, electionbettingodds says that Bernie has a 44.6% chance of being the nominee and a 17.6% chance of being the next President. That implies a 39.46% chance of beating Trump if he's the nominee. Biden has a 43% chance of being the nominee and a 20.4% chance of being the next President. That implies a 47.44% chance of beating Trump if he's the nominee.
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squistion
Footballguy
Nate Silver sees it as a tossup
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1234549072876515330
The safest thing is probably just to think of the nomination as a toss-up between Sanders and Biden now.
I'm not sure if our model will say that, but **it's getting pretty close to saying that** and the factors it isn't considering (i.e. that Biden could pick up a disproportionate share of Klobuchar and Buttigieg voters) would likely push it in that direction.
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