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Andy D's 2019 Mock Draft Central - Final one. Hopefully no sacking will be required (1 Viewer)

Andy Dufresne

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
1. Arizona - Josh Allen, OLB/DE Kentucky

GM Keim had already stated they'll return to the 3-4 this year.

2. San Francisco - Nick Bosa, DE OSU

They finally get the DE spot right with this pick.

3. New York Jets - Montez Sweat, DE Miss. St.

I get that they need offensive weapons, but not at this spot. They'll attack that with their two thirds. Sweat will continue to rise.

4. Oakland - Jachai Polite, DE Florida

Getting lost in the charter but he's really good. 

5. Tampa Bay - Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

Their investment in DE least year was mostly wasted money. They'll keep Winston.

6. New York Giants - Dwayne Haskins, QB OSU

Manning didn't receive the same endorsement he did last year. Haskins' inexperience shouldn't bother anyone.

7. Jacksonville - Drew Lock, QB Mizzou

He has his flaws but can really sling it. If they don't land Flacco, what else can they do?

8. Detroit - Rashan Gary, DE Michigan

If he can gain consistency, watch out.

9. Buffalo - Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

A gift falls in their laps to fill the gap left by Kyle Williams retirement.

10. Denver - Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

If anyone can convince Murray to forego baseball, wouldn't it be Elway?

11. Cincinnati - Devin White, LB LSU

12. Green Bay - Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma

13. Miami - Daniel Jones, QB Duke

14. Atlanta - Jeffery Simmons, DT Miss. St.

15. Washington - Jonah Williams, OL Alabama

16. Carolina - Greg Little, OT Ole Mis

17. Cleveland - Andre Dillard, OT Wash St

18. Minnesota - Ed Oliver, DT Houston

19. Tennessee - Greedy Williams, CB LSU

20. Pittsburgh - Devin Bush, LB Michigan

21. Seattle - Cody Ford, OL Oklahoma

22. Baltimore - DK Metcalf, WR Ole Miss

23. Houston - Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida

24. Oakland - from Chicago - Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

25. Philadelphia - Deandre Baker, CB Georgia

26. Indianapolis - AJ Brown, WR Ole Miss

27. Oakland - from Dallas - N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona St.

28. Los Angeles Chargers - Christian Wilkins, DT Clemson

29. Kansas City - Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson

30. Green Bay - from New Orleans - Jonathan Abram, S Miss. St.

31. New England - TJ Hockenson, TE Iowa

32. Los Angeles Rams- Jaylon Ferguson, DE La. Tech

33. Arizona - Tytus Howard, OT Alabama St

34. Indianapolis - from New York Jets - Nasir Adderly, S Delaware

35. Oakland - Mack Wilson, LB Alabama

36. San Francisco - Roc Ya-Sin, CB Temple

37. New York Giants - Brian Burns, OLB FSU

38. Jacksonville - Kelvin Harmon, WR NC State

39. Tampa Bay - Will Grier, QB WVU

40. Buffalo - Yodny Cajuste, OT WVU

41. Denver - JJ Arcega-Whiteside

42. Cincinnati - Noah Fant, TE Iowa

 
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Quick thoughts:
 

- I really hope Detroit doesn't take Gary, he's not that good and a bit of tweener. 

- I will cry if my boy N'Keal ends up with Carr and Gruden

- Hockenson to New England is such a great fit 

Biggest disagreements on draft value:

- I was wrong about where Landry went last year and Brian Burns is a similar player but I would be really shocked if Burns gets past the top 20. 

- I know Deonte Thompson had a bad National Champ game and is sliding but will he slide this far?

- Hard to imagine only corner the first 42. Byron Murphy has a lot of buzz and many think he goes before Greedy. 

 
Burns - With so many defensive players going early it pushes good offensive ones to the 2nd half of round one, leaving a really good player like Burns for the early 2nd.

Thompson - Scuttlebutt is that he really face planted the whole 2nd half of the season.

The CBs - They're all just pretty good and could really go in any number of ways.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Burns - With so many defensive players going early it pushes good offensive ones to the 2nd half of round one, leaving a really good player like Burns for the early 2nd.

Thompson - Scuttlebutt is that he really face planted the whole 2nd half of the season.

The CBs - They're all just pretty good and could really go in any number of ways.
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True, some will fall. Like I said Landry fell last year so it could happen. Also, you are probably right on Thompson. I still just don't see only 1 CB ih round 1. That would be a major surprise and would have teams falling all over each other trade to the top of the 2nd. 

 
Very interesting. It's so different from all the other mocks out there, I wouldn't necessarily pick the same people to the same teams but I like that it doesn't just regurgitate the same combos. 

The main thing that jumps out to me is that you've ruined my favorite RB and WR which would suck because I have pick 1.01. I don't want Harry or Jacobs going to go to Oakland. 

 
steelers1080 said:
Very interesting. It's so different from all the other mocks out there, I wouldn't necessarily pick the same people to the same teams but I like that it doesn't just regurgitate the same combos. 

The main thing that jumps out to me is that you've ruined my favorite RB and WR which would suck because I have pick 1.01. I don't want Harry or Jacobs going to go to Oakland. 
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I am starting to get worried about where Harry ends up. Oakland, Baltimore and Buffalo seem really likely and I hate it. Cleveland or Indy would be tops IMO.

 
steelers1080 said:
Very interesting. It's so different from all the other mocks out there, I wouldn't necessarily pick the same people to the same teams but I like that it doesn't just regurgitate the same combos. 

The main thing that jumps out to me is that you've ruined my favorite RB and WR which would suck because I have pick 1.01. I don't want Harry or Jacobs going to go to Oakland. 
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That's one of the main things I try to do without being radically different just to be different.

I'm of the opinion that mocks are only good for discussing team fits and the incoming talent. I don't care how accurate someone is/isn't at predicting the future.

 
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I didn't realize Arizona was going 3-4, but even with that I would bet on a buckeye going 1. Probably Bosa unless a Gruden wants to move on from Carr and one of the three QB needy teams moves up to 1.

 
-OZ- said:
I didn't realize Arizona was going 3-4, but even with that I would bet on a buckeye going 1. Probably Bosa unless a Gruden wants to move on from Carr and one of the three QB needy teams moves up to 1.
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https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2019/1/9/18175865/arizona-cardinals-return-to-a-34-defense-veteran-defensive-coordinator-dom-capers-chuck-pagano

"Keim says Cardinals want a veteran DC. And team will go back to a 3-4 base. Tacit admission going to 4-3 was a mistake."

 
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Good effort on this, always fun to read.

Seconding that notion that Gary isn't a good fit for Detroit. I think he can be a good player but he's either a DT in a 4-3 or a DE in a 3-4. The Lions desperately need a 4-3 DE and it's their top need by far so it's disheartening to see the run on all the DE's at the top of this draft. In this scenario I'd hope they either take Devin White, the top CB on their board or begin rebuilding the right side of their o-line. The current RG and RT are old, have high salaries, are often injured and on the last year of their contracts going into 2019 - doubtful either is resigned after the next season.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
What's surprising to me is the amount of decent o-line talent there's turning out to be.
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What players do you like at offensive line?

I was looking at Walter Football a few days ago and Charlie Campbell says this is a weak offensive line draft.

Then listening to Prisco talking about the Vikings, he says there is good depth at offensive line this year and the Vikings should be able to find some players in the later rounds.

I know I trust Campbells opinion much more than Prisco's who I do not value at all. I just happened to hear him say that when looking for Vikings news.

I see in your mock that you have Jonah Williams and Greg Little being selected before the Vikings pick at 18. Do you think the Vikings would select either of them at pick 18 if they are still there? Or do you think they draft defensive tackle anyways.

DT is certainly a need as well. For the 1st round I believe in taking the best player available. is Ed Oliver the BPA at that spot? Is he even the best DT available at that point? Ford and Taylor were still available to them at offensive line.

Are you doing this based on what you think the Vikings will do based on their history? Or do you just think Oliver is the best pick for them there?

 
I realize Jameis Winston is in the last year of his deal, and the Bucs don’t currently have another QB on the roster, but they might as well move on from Winston now if they take/like Grier in the 2nd round. 

I’d rather they go after Deiter or Lindstrom to give Jameis some protection. 

 
Grahamburn said:
I realize Jameis Winston is in the last year of his deal, and the Bucs don’t currently have another QB on the roster, but they might as well move on from Winston now if they take/like Grier in the 2nd round. 

I’d rather they go after Deiter or Lindstrom to give Jameis some protection. 
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Why not give Winston another year and have a young backup? 

If Winston does well, Grier is a cheap back up presuming he shows enough.

The bucs needs include backup QB

 
-OZ- said:
Why not give Winston another year and have a young backup? 

If Winston does well, Grier is a cheap back up presuming he shows enough.

The bucs needs include backup QB
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Simple answer:  I don't think Arians is here for the long haul.  Maybe 2-3 years...  He's trying to win now with Jameis Winston and they need a starter with that pick.  They can draft a backup much later or sign a FA, and if that guy is ever pressed into duty the season is probably lost anyway. 

 
-OZ- said:
Do you like him better than Bosa? I realize this question could be its own thread. 
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I'm just a casual observer of this stuff and not someone who really has studied the players or anything bu Bosa looks more like a 4-3 than 3-4 edge. 

 
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Thoughts on the egde guys and scheme fit? This was my initial though

Most 4-3                            Most 3-4

Ferrell, Bosa, Allen, Polite, Burns

 
Andy Dufresne said:
10. Denver - Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

If anyone can convince Murray to forego baseball, wouldn't it be Elway?
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he wouldn’t be a good fit for the Broncos

D. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma

I’m not saying the Heisman Trophy winner can’t play NFL quarterback because he’s 5-foot-9. I’m saying he wouldn’t be a good fit for the Broncos because he must play from the pistol or shotgun and the Rich Scangarello offense needs its quarterbacks under center for the wide-zone run to work best.   
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Broncos new OC is Rich Scangrello a disciple of Gary Kubiak who has run a wide-zone offense and tweeked it after Kyle Shanahan built on that concept who learned it from his father Mike Shanahan who used zone blocking all the way back to when he was winning Super Bowls with the Broncos and Elway and that offense can be tracked back further but both Elway and Scangrello are steeped in wide-zone concepts where the QB lines up under center.

The more I see of Murray the more I think a team will move up for him but it won't be the Broncos.

 
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Bracie Smathers said:
he wouldn’t be a good fit for the Broncos

Broncos new OC is Rich Scangrello a disciple of Gary Kubiak who has run a wide-zone offense and tweeked it after Kyle Shanahan built on that concept who learned it from his father Mike Shanahan who used zone blocking all the way back to when he was winning Super Bowls with the Broncos and Elway and that offense can be tracked back further but both Elway and Scangrello are steeped in wide-zone concepts where the QB lines up under center.

The more I see of Murray the more I think a team will move up for him but it won't be the Broncos.
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All the buzz (FWIW) is connecting the Broncos to Lock and that does make sense. 

 
Biabreakable said:
What players do you like at offensive line?

I was looking at Walter Football a few days ago and Charlie Campbell says this is a weak offensive line draft.

Then listening to Prisco talking about the Vikings, he says there is good depth at offensive line this year and the Vikings should be able to find some players in the later rounds.

I know I trust Campbells opinion much more than Prisco's who I do not value at all. I just happened to hear him say that when looking for Vikings news.

I see in your mock that you have Jonah Williams and Greg Little being selected before the Vikings pick at 18. Do you think the Vikings would select either of them at pick 18 if they are still there? Or do you think they draft defensive tackle anyways.

DT is certainly a need as well. For the 1st round I believe in taking the best player available. is Ed Oliver the BPA at that spot? Is he even the best DT available at that point? Ford and Taylor were still available to them at offensive line.

Are you doing this based on what you think the Vikings will do based on their history? Or do you just think Oliver is the best pick for them there?
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Draft pundits seem to be like fantasy footballers - if there's not an obviously elite player at the position (Andrew Luck, Saquon Barkley, Joe Thomas) then it's a weak draft. That's just lazy, IMO.

The real issue is that the true left tackle prospect is still a bit of a unicorn. Several of these guys are good right tackle prospects, but are questionable on the left. And a guy like Jonah Williams is spoken of by more than one source as a better (and even.a great) fit at guard.

Per the Vikings - Little and Williams would absolutely be in play at that spot. Some of the guys available in this draft I bypassed because they seem to have found a win at RT in O'Neill. Here, Oliver is definitely IMO the BPA. Their D-line depth really needs help. Oliver's stock has dropped because of off field perception and hype around other guys - but he's excellent.

This is really a need based draft. Although Spielman really does seem to avoid taking linemen high. Which is why we ended up with this year's debacle.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Draft pundits seem to be like fantasy footballers - if there's not an obviously elite player at the position (Andrew Luck, Saquon Barkley, Joe Thomas) then it's a weak draft. That's just lazy, IMO.

The real issue is that the true left tackle prospect is still a bit of a unicorn. Several of these guys are good right tackle prospects, but are questionable on the left. And a guy like Jonah Williams is spoken of by more than one source as a better (and even.a great) fit at guard.

Per the Vikings - Little and Williams would absolutely be in play at that spot. Some of the guys available in this draft I bypassed because they seem to have found a win at RT in O'Neill. Here, Oliver is definitely IMO the BPA. Their D-line depth really needs help. Oliver's stock has dropped because of off field perception and hype around other guys - but he's excellent.

This is really a need based draft. Although Spielman really does seem to avoid taking linemen high. Which is why we ended up with this year's debacle.
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Just looking out over the NFL, there does seem to a shortage of LTs. Lots of the better LTs are a bit older and I could be wrong but it seems many of the recent 1st round LTs haven't developed into the players their teams hoped. I could be totally wrong though.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
he wouldn’t be a good fit for the Broncos

Broncos new OC is Rich Scangrello a disciple of Gary Kubiak who has run a wide-zone offense and tweeked it after Kyle Shanahan built on that concept who learned it from his father Mike Shanahan who used zone blocking all the way back to when he was winning Super Bowls with the Broncos and Elway and that offense can be tracked back further but both Elway and Scangrello are steeped in wide-zone concepts where the QB lines up under center.

The more I see of Murray the more I think a team will move up for him but it won't be the Broncos.
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I read the same article and I discounted it. If they didn't have other options, they'd take Murray and tailor the offense to him.

Having said that, I think that the Broncos are one of three places that Flacco ends up - and might just head the list. The others being Jacksonville and Miami.

 
Ilov80s said:
Just looking out over the NFL, there does seem to a shortage of LTs. Lots of the better LTs are a bit older and I could be wrong but it seems many of the recent 1st round LTs haven't developed into the players their teams hoped. I could be totally wrong though.
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I was thinking about this last night...if I was challenged with "Quick, name me the premier left tackle in the NFL today!" 

I don't think I have a quick answer. Or even a slow one. 

 
Cjw_55106 said:
I dont see anyway the Vikings dont take an O lineman in the first round. They should probably consider taking one with every pick they own! 
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Because as much as I don't like Rick (and it really is quite a bit) he knows that in the first round you don't take the sixth or so best player at the position you need most if you can get an elite player at another position.

His problem is that he sucks at identifying mid round line talent.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Because as much as I don't like Rick (and it really is quite a bit) he knows that in the first round you don't take the sixth or so best player at the position you need most if you can get an elite player at another position.

His problem is that he sucks at identifying mid round line talent.
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I get that but when your team has a SB window open and the one weakness that continues to sabotage that goal is OL, it might be time to take the position of need over the BPA. 

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
I read the same article and I discounted it. If they didn't have other options, they'd take Murray and tailor the offense to him.

Having said that, I think that the Broncos are one of three places that Flacco ends up - and might just head the list. The others being Jacksonville and Miami.
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Murray's main issue in being short is seeing that he can't see the middle of the field and the stats show his worst production is over the MOF.   Lincoln Riley runs he Air Raid and Murray might have lined up under center in victory formation a handful of times but that is it.  He's not a Pro Set QB which is where a wide-zone QB lines uip.

Remember a few weeks back when the Broncos were set to name Gary Kubiak as their new OC or even HC?  He coached Flacco to his SB win with the wide-zone and it was 'reported' that Elway did not want Fllacco so Gary dropped out.

 Rich Scangrello has never been an OC.  He got the gig because Kubiak hired him in Houston.  Elway won SBs with an offense rooted in wide-zone.  That is what they run.  

If they went for Murray not only would the be taking a big chance based on his size and having only played one year as a starting QB but that they would go against what they know on offense but if you say you discount it then that is your take and I don't agree with it.

The Broncos owe Case Keenum $18 million this year and are on the hook for  $7 million guaranteed if they cut him which seems unlikely.

The Broncos are a bit screwed.  They should have taken the QB last year IMHO.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Not a fan of GB taking an undersized WR and a Safety in the 1st round.  But I can see why a Vikings fan would like that.
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One thing you can always count on in mock drafting is Packers fans disagreeing with the choice. ;)

Outside of Adams, you really got nothing even after spending a lot of the capital on the WR last year. In today's NFL, the idea that a WR is undersized is outdated.

And how can you NOT think the Pack needs safety help?

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Draft pundits seem to be like fantasy footballers - if there's not an obviously elite player at the position (Andrew Luck, Saquon Barkley, Joe Thomas) then it's a weak draft. That's just lazy, IMO.

The real issue is that the true left tackle prospect is still a bit of a unicorn. Several of these guys are good right tackle prospects, but are questionable on the left. And a guy like Jonah Williams is spoken of by more than one source as a better (and even.a great) fit at guard.

Per the Vikings - Little and Williams would absolutely be in play at that spot. Some of the guys available in this draft I bypassed because they seem to have found a win at RT in O'Neill. Here, Oliver is definitely IMO the BPA. Their D-line depth really needs help. Oliver's stock has dropped because of off field perception and hype around other guys - but he's excellent.

This is really a need based draft. Although Spielman really does seem to avoid taking linemen high. Which is why we ended up with this year's debacle.
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Thanks for the insight. I'm still learning about the rookies and Oliver is highly regarded, perhaps won't be available at pick 18.

I asked similar question in the Vikings thread, thought it might be interesting to try to look at which players the Vikings should take before an offensive linemen.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
One thing you can always count on in mock drafting is Packers fans disagreeing with the choice. ;)

Outside of Adams, you really got nothing even after spending a lot of the capital on the WR last year. In today's NFL, the idea that a WR is undersized is outdated.

And how can you NOT think the Pack needs safety help?
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The Pack needs HUGE help at safety.  But we could sign a veteran safety for a way cheaper "cost" than the price of a late 1st round pick.   Tons of those guys are available every year.

 
Alex P Keaton said:
Not a fan of GB taking an undersized WR and a Safety in the 1st round.  But I can see why a Vikings fan would like that.
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Agreed.  Don't mind the safety but would be pissed if they passed on one of the top offensive lineman for Brown.  Would much rather have Jonah Williams there.  Good read thanks Andy

 
Alex P Keaton said:
The Pack needs HUGE help at safety.  But we could sign a veteran safety for a way cheaper "cost" than the price of a late 1st round pick.   Tons of those guys are available every year.
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Well, I can see that but it wasn't the parameters here.  I wasn't extrapolating free agent signings.

 
I noticed you had the WRs: 

  1. Marquise Brown, OK
  2. DK Metcalf, Ole Miss
  3. AJ Brown, Ole Miss
  4. N'Keal Harry, AZ St.
  5. Kelvin Harmon, NC St.
Is that the order you have them talent-wise, or did scheme fit play a big part?

Also, how much do you take QB talent into account when judging the WRs?

Marquise Brown had QBs at the very top of the class, and to my eye the other 4 had terrible QBs. They could sometimes deliver a ball on target, but would often freak out and run, or lock on to one WR the whole game even if they weren't open. AJ Brown and DK seemed to be open frequently, but the QB would just give up and take off. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Odds are one of the top 5 DEs listed will still be there with 6 & 7 being projected QB picks. LB Devon White is also interesting.
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Agreed, a top end DE or corner will be available at 8. We just need to be smart enough to get it right. Ferrell to me seems like the best fit and all around player.

 
Biabreakable said:
What players do you like at offensive line?

I was looking at Walter Football a few days ago and Charlie Campbell says this is a weak offensive line draft.

Then listening to Prisco talking about the Vikings, he says there is good depth at offensive line this year and the Vikings should be able to find some players in the later rounds.

I know I trust Campbells opinion much more than Prisco's who I do not value at all. I just happened to hear him say that when looking for Vikings news.

I see in your mock that you have Jonah Williams and Greg Little being selected before the Vikings pick at 18. Do you think the Vikings would select either of them at pick 18 if they are still there? Or do you think they draft defensive tackle anyways.

DT is certainly a need as well. For the 1st round I believe in taking the best player available. is Ed Oliver the BPA at that spot? Is he even the best DT available at that point? Ford and Taylor were still available to them at offensive line.

Are you doing this based on what you think the Vikings will do based on their history? Or do you just think Oliver is the best pick for them there?
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Assuming he doesn't bomb the pre-draft process (combine, interviews, etc.) Ed Oliver outside of the top 10 will be a steal for someone. He sat out the last part of the season as he was injured and elected not to play in his bowl game to protect his health so the hype died down on him but when healthy he looked poised to be the next Aaron Donald. If he does go outside the top 10 it will likely be due to DT's just not being a premium valued position.

 
Ilov80s said:
True, some will fall. Like I said Landry fell last year so it could happen. Also, you are probably right on Thompson. I still just don't see only 1 CB ih round 1. That would be a major surprise and would have teams falling all over each other trade to the top of the 2nd. 
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Think he has 2 in the 1st round.

 
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