Possible skill player bust candidates from 2019 Draft? (1 Viewer)

In no particular order

Dexter Williams RB ND - Can't make anyone miss, has off the field issues (pot and handgun no license, Suspended four games for an unspecified violation of team rules to open the 2018)

Miles Sanders RB Penn St. - No top speed, questions in the passing game

Parris Campbell WR OSU - Hands are a question. Not very physical.   Underdeveloped route runner

Justice Hill RB Ok St. - .Size is a question, along with no power

Anthony Johnson WR Buffalo -  Lacks the suddenness to be a quick early separator.  Average speed.  Small school concerns. 

Kyler Murray QB OK - Having size issues is one thing, but his are ridiculous.  Not only is he short, but he's also light. 

Darius Slayton WR Aub - Despite vertical prowess, doesn’t high point enough to project to a great contested catch receiver. Lets the ball come to him and rarely goes and gets it over defenders.

Rodney Anderson RB OK - 2015 broken leg, 2016 neck injury, 2017 knee injury

D K Metcalf WR Miss - severe neck injury that reportedly required surgery. He's raw as a player and that seems to be a negative on player evaluation, lack of production in college

If Parris Campbell is over drafted then I totally agree.  I'm expecting sometime round 3 because of what he'll do next month, which is still way too early and he'll never develop, but a swing-and-a-miss at that stage also isn't a draft killer.

All of them. Statistically, it is probable that half of our 1st round (fantasy) rookie picks will bust.

FF Ninja said:

All of them. Statistically, it is probable that half of our 1st round (fantasy) rookie picks will bust.

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Exactly. And it won't always be a physical problem like size or speed. Some guys just can't make the jump.

Leroy Hoard said:

Exactly. And it won't always be a physical problem like size or speed. Some guys just can't make the jump.

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Who are some of those guys you think that won't make the jump successfully? 

relative to where he's going probably Josh Jacobs.  He's being ranked as a top 10 prospect by many.  I can't think of another RB with such low production who has been this highly regarded going into the draft.

RB's who go top 15 in NFL draft almost always have big numbers in college.  Jacobs was used very sparingly and all of a sudden jumped up draft boards.

ILUVBEER99 said:

relative to where he's going probably Josh Jacobs.  He's being ranked as a top 10 prospect by many.  I can't think of another RB with such low production who has been this highly regarded going into the draft.

RB's who go top 15 in NFL draft almost always have big numbers in college.  Jacobs was used very sparingly and all of a sudden jumped up draft boards.

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To put that into perspective, Sony Michel had 590 carries in college to Jacobs' 251 and Michel shared with Chubb.

ILUVBEER99 said:

relative to where he's going probably Josh Jacobs.  He's being ranked as a top 10 prospect by many.  I can't think of another RB with such low production who has been this highly regarded going into the draft.

RB's who go top 15 in NFL draft almost always have big numbers in college.  Jacobs was used very sparingly and all of a sudden jumped up draft boards.

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He barely had more rushing attempts than Kenyan Drake did for Alabama and Drake was 3rd round pick, not a 1st rounder.

To be fair I haven't seen Jacobs flaws (yet) the way I did with Drake. I haven't been able to find anything to watch on him besides highlights though.

Preston Williams has off the field concerns as well.  Although I think his talent is above every other WR in this class, there is the knucklehead factor to consider.  Not a clue how high people are ranking him right now though.  

JohnnyU said:

Who are some of those guys you think that won't make the jump successfully? 

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I need to wait for their Wonderlic test results to start.

It's a lot easier to look at a guy and say he's too small or too slow. Harder to tell how smart or how mature they are. Can they learn an NFL playbook, can they deal with suddenly have a big chunk of money. Do they have other hidden mental issues.

ILUVBEER99 said:

relative to where he's going probably Josh Jacobs.  He's being ranked as a top 10 prospect by many.  I can't think of another RB with such low production who has been this highly regarded going into the draft.

RB's who go top 15 in NFL draft almost always have big numbers in college.  Jacobs was used very sparingly and all of a sudden jumped up draft boards.

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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25540850/why-josh-jacobs-alabama-most-unlikely-star

Not being used enough by coaches on a team as talented as Alabama isn't something I would totally blame the player for. Sounds like a light mileage guy with tons of upside.

Leroy Hoard said:

I need to wait for their Wonderlic test results to start.

It's a lot easier to look at a guy and say he's too small or too slow. Harder to tell how smart or how mature they are. Can they learn an NFL playbook, can they deal with suddenly have a big chunk of money. Do they have other hidden mental issues.

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This is it. Smarts and work ethic seem to trump athleticism in a lot of cases, especially at WR/TE. For those two positions, it seems once you eclipse the baseline athleticism required for the position it's things like route running, vision, ball tracking, understanding the playbook/system, and work ethic that separate players. Things that can be difficult to discern by watching youtube highlights.

FF Ninja said:

Things that can be difficult to discern by watching youtube highlights.

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This is why you do more reading than watching.

JohnnyU said:

This is why you do more reading than watching.

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Who can you really trust about work ethic and smarts?

If you can even find reliable info on those sorts of things, there are cases of players like Kevin White, who, by all accounts, is a very hard worker to go along with insane measurables. These things are just very unpredictable.

I'm at a very early point of scouting most of the incoming class, but my initial impressions are:

Daniel Jones is the 1st name that stands out to me as easy to see being a bust. I don't see any reason he should be a 1st round pick other than QB desperation. I guess if he ends up in a perfect situation he could pan out, but I think the negatives outweigh the positives right now. Though to be fair, I'd have had a similar sentiment about Josh Allen last year, and he was a useful fantasy option, though Jones isn't the same type of player. 

D.K. Metcalf sets off some alarm bells. maybe I'm overrating the lack of college production, DJ Moore looked good, while not having great college production, but Metcalf looks like more athlete than WR to me.

Drew Lock, I think teams/media are trying to force this into being a great QB class, its not, its barely even decent. Last year was an elite class, and not the norm. Lock has no business being a 1st rounder in my opinion. 

Josh Jacobs, this is BY FAR, the worst RB class in years. He may very well be the best RB from the class, but I'd hate to trust him enough to use the 1.1 on him on fantasy drafts. I think this is a good year to trade top-5 rookie picks for proven vets, or future picks.

T.J. Hockenson, can't help but feel he's getting a "whoops, we missed on George Kittle" bump. 

I actually really like both Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins. I think there is a ton of Russell Wilson to Murray's game, and Haskins has some Palmer/Stafford to him.

Marquise Brown might be my favorite player from a fantasy perspective. Big fan of Hollywood's game. Great speed, but also quality route running. Has a Steve Smith ceiling in my opinion, with probably a Will Fuller floor. Split the difference, at maybe T.Y. Hilton? I doubt he'll be as good as his cousin Antonio, but I think he can be a true #1 WR. 

FF Ninja said:

Who can you really trust about work ethic and smarts?

If you can even find reliable info on those sorts of things, there are cases of players like Kevin White, who, by all accounts, is a very hard worker to go along with insane measurables. These things are just very unpredictable.

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Their coaches should be a good source but sometimes it seems like they are too close to them to let you know about any problems. Same with local beat writers that follow the team.