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Joe Bryant

Kyler Murray Picks Football - Most Likely Outcome?

Most Likely Outcome For Kyler Murray  

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IMO, this guy is so dependent upon his coaching staff.  If he’s forced into a traditional pro style set operating from under center I think he’ll struggle and it could damage him for his career.  If he’s got a staff that wants to run a RPO set out of shotgun as their base, he could have a brilliant career.

Really tough question to answer right now.

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7 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

IMO, this guy is so dependent upon his coaching staff.  If he’s forced into a traditional pro style set operating from under center I think he’ll struggle and it could damage him for his career.  If he’s got a staff that wants to run a RPO set out of shotgun as their base, he could have a brilliant career.

Really tough question to answer right now.

Yup. He's dead meat if he's forced to be a pocket passer but if they play to his athleticism he can really be a Russell Wilson type. He IS good.

In the top 15 picks we have these teams as possible landing spots (sans trades):

Raiders

Giants

Jaguars

Broncos

Dolphins

Redskins

I would imagine the top 3 QB boards for most teams have some combo of Haskins, Murray, Lock. The biggest wild card is whether or not the Giants take a. QB. If they're dumb and don't, then I think Haskins goes to Jax, Lock to Denver, and Murray to Washington. I'm counting on Miami to go stupid.

 

 

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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Everybody looking for the next Russell Wilson, but....he is unique.

There is noway I'm buying 5-11/195 for Murray, he can't be that big.

I don't see it and it really  doesn't matter where he is, what situation, his game has too much to do with his speed.  That won't work at his size.  Ah....for very long.

Way too much put on his running abiility, and he will be getting slower every season.

Edited by ZenoRazon

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Historically crappy teams should take the risk. He has probably the widest range of outcomes possible for his career. If you have no qb, you should take a risk here. 

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This fascinates me. 

I've studied very little of Murray.

What I know is mostly from the Alabama playoff game where I absolutely did not see what apparently everyone else sees. Does not excite me at all.

Having such a hot take based on next to nothing is pretty much the definition of dumb hot takes. 

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Without knowing anything about Murray himself, my pick for ALL prospects is "Below average NFL QB", simply because that's what the vast majority of them will end up being.

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

This fascinates me. 

I've studied very little of Murray.

What I know is mostly from the Alabama playoff game where I absolutely did not see what apparently everyone else sees. Does not excite me at all.

Having such a hot take based on next to nothing is pretty much the definition of dumb hot takes. 

I have the same hot take. I didn't see anything in the Alabama game that screamed "pro quarterback" at me. He looked inaccurate, even.  

eta* That's why I'll leave it to the college football heads on the board.  

Edited by rockaction

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Without knowing anything about Murray himself, my pick for ALL prospects is "Below average NFL QB", simply because that's what the vast majority of them will end up being.

Yes, but I'm assuming Murray has been convinced he'll be a first round pick. That's a small subset than all the QBs drafted each year. 

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Without knowing anything about Murray himself, my pick for ALL prospects is "Below average NFL QB", simply because that's what the vast majority of them will end up being.

Right, it's not all about his size or his baseball prospects. A lot of big football dedicated 1st round QBs don't make it in the NFL.

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12 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Yes, but I'm assuming Murray has been convinced he'll be a first round pick. That's a small subset than all the QBs drafted each year. 

Here's the twelve 1st round QBs taken between 2013 and 2017.  At least 7 of them are below average.  Certainly not the "vast" majority that I stated above, but still a majority.  And I'm not entirely convinced that Goff and Winston are above average, either.

Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Goff
Wentz
Lynch
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Manziel
Bridgewater
EJ Manuel

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A lot depends on where he goes. If he goes to NYG, he could have a decent career with Barkley and OBJ as key targets. If they can sure up their Oline (which I imagine is a priority), than he could be pretty good. Jaguars and Dolphins seem like QB wastelands. He could be pretty bad in a place like that. 

But he will probably be an average QB in the league. Talented enough to survive the early years and hopefully smart enough to learn how to keep playing for years to come.

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Here's the twelve 1st round QBs taken between 2013 and 2017.  At least 7 of them are below average.  Certainly not the "vast" majority that I stated above, but still a majority.  And I'm not entirely convinced that Goff and Winston are above average, either.

Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Goff
Wentz
Lynch
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Manziel
Bridgewater
EJ Manuel

1

Thanks. I do think it's interesting. It's a SUPER small sample size but it does feel like the last few years have been much better. Should be interesting to see. 

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Here's the twelve 1st round QBs taken between 2013 and 2017.  At least 7 of them are below average.  Certainly not the "vast" majority that I stated above, but still a majority.  And I'm not entirely convinced that Goff and Winston are above average, either.

Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Goff
Wentz
Lynch
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Manziel
Bridgewater
EJ Manuel

His ceiling imho.

eta - voted out of league in 5 years.

Edited by matuski

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2 hours ago, Insein said:

A lot depends on where he goes. If he goes to NYG, he could have a decent career with Barkley and OBJ as key targets. If they can sure up their Oline (which I imagine is a priority), than he could be pretty good. Jaguars and Dolphins seem like QB wastelands. He could be pretty bad in a place like that. 

But he will probably be an average QB in the league. Talented enough to survive the early years and hopefully smart enough to learn how to keep playing for years to come.

If he goes to the Giants Shurmur will do his best to ruin him. 

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This guy has been the benefactor of the propaganda machine for a couple months now.

Going to be fascinating to see if it turns on him before April.

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4 minutes ago, matuski said:

This guy has been the benefactor of the propaganda machine for a couple months now.

Going to be fascinating to see if it turns on him before April.

If the media catches wind that he isnt going to be picked early then they will come up with something stupid to bring him down. 

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Thanks. I do think it's interesting. It's a SUPER small sample size but it does feel like the last few years have been much better. Should be interesting to see. 

I didn’t include 2018, where I would say 4 of the 5 1st round QBs are below average, simply because it’s not fair to judge them so early. 

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50 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I didn’t include 2018, where I would say 4 of the 5 1st round QBs are below average, simply because it’s not fair to judge them so early. 

Yes - too early for sure. 

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12 hours ago, matuski said:

This guy has been the benefactor of the propaganda machine for a couple months now.

Going to be fascinating to see if it turns on him before April.

:confused: There is so much vitriol for him because he may barely scratch 5’10... surely you must be confusing him with Josh Jacobs.

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27 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

:confused: There is so much vitriol for him because he may barely scratch 5’10... surely you must be confusing him with Josh Jacobs.

Murray is getting more 24 hour coverage than every other player in the draft combined.

4 of 5 mock drafts I see have him going no lower than #13.  Driving too much over the last week I have heard his ceiling being Brees and Wilson.  He is better than Baker.  Not a single show talks football without puffing on Murray for a good while.  

Observing that he is small and short isn't "vitriol".. he is small and short.  5'10" is generous of you.

eta - credit to Sportingnews not having him in the 1st round.  This is my prediction as well.... maybe late 1st.

 

Edited by matuski
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My best guess is the Redskins grab him at 15. They're backed into a corner needing to draft a QB with Alex Smith out and the amount of cap money tied to him. Redskins can't afford to sign a free agent QB to big money again and instead take a QB in the draft with a small cap number.

I don't see many teams considering Murray in the top 15:

  • #1 Arizona - Kingsbury is on the record saying he'd take Murray #1 overall but that was a long time ago, long before he signed on to be Arizona's coach. Hard to imagine Arizona taking Murray and dumping Rosen after just 1 year while skipping on the premium pass rushers.
  • #4 Oakland - They're fine moving forward with Carr. Even if they wanted to draft a QB early wouldn't they take Haskins over Murray. Now if Murray free falls I could see Oakland grabbing him with one of the later first round picks.
  • #6 Giants - On the record saying they think Murray is too small. If Foles becomes a FA they'd likely be one of his suitors. There's also the possibility of Haskins or Lock being available. They may also move forward with Eli for another year and skip QB.
  • #7 Jacksonville - Decent chance the Jags will consider Murray. But also in play will be landing Foles in a trade with Philly, being a suitor to Foles if he's a FA, Haskins and Lock. I would think you would need a scenario of Foles not playing for the Giants, Jags or Broncos plus the Giants taking Haskins/Lock and the Broncos trading up to take Haskins/Lock for Murray to land with the Jags.
  • #10 Denver - Murray won't land here. Elway likes prototypical size in QB's. Broncos will try to get one of Foles, Haskins or Lock otherwise they punt on QB, suck it up with Keenum for 1 more year and then grab a QB high next year.
  • #12 Miami - They're on the record saying they won't make major free agent signings this off-season in an effort to bottom out. They'll grab their QB very high next year. Murray won't land here.
  • #15 Washington - They can't afford Foles and desperately need a QB. Haskins and Lock should be gone by now. Murray would be a typical Snyder splashy move. Or maybe they don't like him and opt for a cheap FA, roll with McCoy or look elsewhere at QB in the draft. 

The Murray free fall begins if he gets past Washington.

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I think a few folks already in this thread are overrating what an "average" NFL quarterback is. The average QBR of the top 33 QBs in 2018 was 59.6.

Mahomes, Trubisky, Winston, and Goff were all top 10 QBR guys last year and if you extend to top 15 you'd also include Wentz and Watson. I think the young guys the past few years are definitely showing an uptick in catching on quick and playing their specific role well.

If he gets into the right system, I don't see why Murray couldn't be above average. QBs right square in the middle were Cousins, Flacco, Prescott, and Newton.

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I'm the one who voted that he'll be judged elite in five years because that is what I see.

  • He avoids contact so he won't be out of the league in five years.
  • He's accurate so he won't be bad.
  • He makes big explosive passing plays so he won't be below average.
  • He makes explosive running plays so he won't be average.
  • He has the skills to not just be above average, he has skills to be elite.

The negative physical narrative is off the mark IMHO.

The biggest question is his drive and leadership abilities.

Baker Mayfield on Kyler Murray's 2019 NFL Draft projection

Quote

 

,” Mayfield said when asked if Murray could be the No. 1 overall pick, via USA Today at Super Bowl LIII. “People are going to say the size thing, but they said that about me. To me, that doesn’t matter. You’ve got to look at the intangibles. He’s a leader. He can make every throw. He’s a natural passer, and he can run.

“He doesn’t get hit a lot. People say that because he’s small, he’ll get knocked around. But he slides, he doesn’t get hit like that. And the most important one, he’s a winner. He’s won at every level he’s played at, he’s going to do that through and through, so if you’re looking at the important things you want in a quarterback, he’s got every single one of them.”

 

Eric Galko‏Verified account @EricGalko

Finally decided to do a Mock today based on what I’ve heard/know: 1. #Cardinals - QB Kyler Murray etc.

2:46 PM - 11 Feb 2019

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I know one thing- I won’t be drafting him because I just don’t have a need at QB and can’t afford to burn the pick I’d need to in order to acquire him.  But I’m going to be very unhappy watching one of my leaguemates get him and know what kinds of FF numbers he has the potential to put up.

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36 minutes ago, Jayded said:

I think a few folks already in this thread are overrating what an "average" NFL quarterback is. The average QBR of the top 33 QBs in 2018 was 59.6.

Mahomes, Trubisky, Winston, and Goff were all top 10 QBR guys last year and if you extend to top 15 you'd also include Wentz and Watson. I think the young guys the past few years are definitely showing an uptick in catching on quick and playing their specific role well.

If he gets into the right system, I don't see why Murray couldn't be above average. QBs right square in the middle were Cousins, Flacco, Prescott, and Newton.

If Trubisky and Winston were in the top 10 of QBR, then that tells me everything I need to know about ignoring QBR forever going forward. 

Admittedly, I was answering the question through the lens of two things: Do I think this person is in the top half of NFL QBs (16th and above = above average), and will this person be a borderline fantasy football starter.  After all, the question was asked on a FF message board.

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1 hour ago, Lionsfan011 said:

My best guess is the Redskins grab him at 15. They're backed into a corner needing to draft a QB with Alex Smith out and the amount of cap money tied to him. Redskins can't afford to sign a free agent QB to big money again and instead take a QB in the draft with a small cap number.

I don't see many teams considering Murray in the top 15:

  • #1 Arizona - Kingsbury is on the record saying he'd take Murray #1 overall but that was a long time ago, long before he signed on to be Arizona's coach. Hard to imagine Arizona taking Murray and dumping Rosen after just 1 year while skipping on the premium pass rushers.

The only way I can see Arizona taking Murray is if a team like the NYG or JAX call and say here's pick 7/8 for Rosen and a mid round pick (and something like that could actually make sense for those two teams if they valued Rosen highly last year).

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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Just saw Murray on the Dan Patrick Show (a replay on The Herd).  Not good.

I hadn't even thought about anything other than his athetic ability, now curious about the total package.

Edited by ZenoRazon

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

If Trubisky and Winston were in the top 10 of QBR, then that tells me everything I need to know about ignoring QBR forever going forward. 

Admittedly, I was answering the question through the lens of two things: Do I think this person is in the top half of NFL QBs (16th and above = above average), and will this person be a borderline fantasy football starter.  After all, the question was asked on a FF message board.

Not disagreeing outright. But as is often with sports a lot of folks mistake the elite with average when the discussions arise. If we jumble that group too much, we do a disservice to both sides of the equation as not all top 16 are elite, but more than 5-10 are average.

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I'm probably not taking a chance on him in superflex unless he falls to a late first or has an ideal destination. QBs are hard enough to hit on. 

I am excited that he will probably push an elite WR down the board further... 

Edited by kittenmittens

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I'm a fan and I voted that he will be elite, although that's really not the most likely outcome. Outside of a Barkley level prospect, that's not the most likely outcome for anyone.

Ultimately, my many years of watching college QBs go to the NFL and flame out tells me that I have no idea how to judge if a QB is going to be successful in the NFL. 

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22 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

 

Ultimately, my many years of watching college QBs go to the NFL and flame out tells me that I have no idea how to judge if a QB is going to be successful in the NFL. 

Same here. But if he does flame out I'm not putting it all on one aspect of his game. Plenty of big lugs that also never made it.

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6 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

Just saw Murray on the Dan Patrick Show (a replay on The Herd).  Not good.

I hadn't even thought about anything other than his athetic ability, now curious about the total package.

Can you elaborate? What are you curious about? What do you see as not good?

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3 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Can you elaborate? What are you curious about? What do you see as not good?

Not trying to be evasive Joe, but do think this work works better if you found it on Google.  Sure it's there,

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That interview was an embarrassment. Murray was completely unprepared and I like him less as a prospect because I’d it. Why even go on the show?

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On 2/11/2019 at 2:05 PM, tangfoot said:

Here's the twelve 1st round QBs taken between 2013 and 2017.  At least 7 of them are below average.  Certainly not the "vast" majority that I stated above, but still a majority.  And I'm not entirely convinced that Goff and Winston are above average, either.

Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Goff
Wentz
Lynch
Winston
Mariota
Bortles
Manziel
Bridgewater
EJ Manuel

Here are the QBs taken past the first round in that time frame. Three of them have starting jobs. My money's on the first rounders.

  • DeShone Kizer
  • Davis Webb
  • CJ Beathard
  • Joshua Dobbs
  • Nathan Peterman
  • Brad Kaaya
  • Chad Kelly
  • Christian Hackenberg
  • Jacoby Brissett
  • Cody Kessler
  • Connor Cook
  • Dak Prescott
  • Cardale Jones
  • Kevin Hogan
  • Nate Sudfeld
  • Jake Rudock
  • Brandon Allen
  • Jeff Driskel
  • Brandon Doughty
  • Garrett Grayson
  • Sean Mannion
  • Bryce Petty
  • Brett Hundley
  • Trevor Siemian
  • Derek Carr
  • Jimmy Garoppolo
  • Logan Thomas
  • Tom Savage
  • Aaron Murray
  • AJ McCarron
  • Zach Mettenberger
  • David Fales
  • Keith Wenning
  • Tajh Boyd
  • Garrett Gilbert
  • Geno Smith
  • Mike Glennon
  • Matt Barkley
  • Ryan Nassib
  • Tyler Wilson
  • Landry Jones
  • Brad Sorensen
  • Zac Dysert
  • BJ Daniels
  • Sean Renfree

 

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He's so unique yet special, some team will fall in love and make a big trade for him. I can imagine many scenarios. There's an it factor with him like Watson and Mahomes and Lamar and Baker. 

Tua is small and he's coming too soon enough. There's no way this big prototype stands.

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The median first round QB is in the Jason Campbell / Sam Bradford / Josh Freeman range, so "below average QB". I like Murray's upside, but he does seem like a boom-or-bust prospect so his chance of being below average or worse is probably not that far off from the typical first rounder. So I voted "below average QB", even though I could wind up drafting a lot of him in rookie drafts.

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2 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Can you elaborate? What are you curious about? What do you see as not good?

Truly a tough watch... very uncomfortable and awkward.  This is the edited version, was worse on radio.

On a scale of 1-10, from that time spent in the Man Cave... I'd rate his charisma/presence a -5.

eta - I mean he had to have his dad with him?

Edited by matuski

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1 hour ago, CalBear said:

Here are the QBs taken past the first round in that time frame. Three of them have starting jobs. My money's on the first rounders.

 

I think the prevailing strategy is to reach into the first round if there is even a hope they will be starters.. to get the extra year under contract.

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2 hours ago, ZenoRazon said:

Not trying to be evasive Joe, but do think this work works better if you found it on Google.  Sure it's there,

Google is cool. I was asking your opinion. No worries.

 

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5 minutes ago, matuski said:

Truly a tough watch... very uncomfortable and awkward.  This is the edited version, was worse on radio.

On a scale of 1-10, from that time spent in the Man Cave... I'd rate his charisma/presence a -5.

eta - I mean he had to have his dad with him?

Thanks.

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16 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Google is cool. I was asking your opinion. No worries.

 

My opinion is how in the hell is this kid going to lead a bunch of grown men into battle.  He came off as being....you asked.....stupid.

Yes, maybe this was just some..forget it a bad day. 

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1 hour ago, ZenoRazon said:

My opinion is how in the hell is this kid going to lead a bunch of grown men into battle.  He came off as being....you asked.....stupid.

Yes, maybe this was just some..forget it a bad day. 

I want a QB who is prepared at all times. In practice, in games, with the media, everything. This painful interview makes me think he doesn’t have the “it” factor. 

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