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BassNBrew

Impact of Hunt on Chubb?

Where do you now rank Chubb for 2019 re-draft?  

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Chubb fell to RB13 in the FBG Survivor draft that started this week (best ball ppr league).  Before the Hunt signing I would have had him at RB6-7.  RB13 seems like a steep decline for me.  Interested in your thoughts.

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Hard to say right now.  There will be (as you posted) and immediate, knee-jerk reaction where he'll drop.  Once we get more info (length of Hunt's suspension, what Cle does with D Johnson, etc), it will clear up.  

If Hunt gets 6+ games, AND the team keeps Johnson this offseason, I don't think Chubb's ranking should change much.  IMO, Cle will utilize Hunt as a 2nd back when he returns and try to recoup some value through trade or tendering him as a RFA.

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I would be thrilled if Chubb fell to RB13.

Hunt is likely going to get 6+ games.  As long as Chubb is doing what he supposed to be doing during Hunt's suspension.....I don't see Hunt significantly impacting Chubb's production, except for Chubb's upside in PPR may be more capped, as CLE could use Hunt as a 3rd down back.  

I would rank Chubb RB7 before the Hunt signing, so I think he should not fall below RB10 even with Hunt in the mix. 

Now is a great time to buy Chubb!

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Chubb at RB6/RB7 (pre-Hunt) seems like drafting him at his very ceiling.  What am I missing here?

Then you add a bonafide RB1 into the mix and people are confident he’s still RB10-RB13?  And that with that his production will most probably be negatively affected in the back half of the FF season and into the FF playoffs?  Not getting that either.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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I know most pundits are saying this won't affect Chubb at all, but it's a risk. I'm not saying panic sell but it's also nothing in my opinion. Maybe Cleveland is worried about Chubb's knee long term. Maybe they just want to trade Hunt or pick up a draft pick? All I know is that there is more uncertainty now that before and if I could add another piece and upgrade to a safer RB situation (say Kamara), I would do that.

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I’m not a huge fan of uncertain situations. So I think that’s the biggest knock on Chubb now - the uncertainty of how Hunt will be used. And this is coming midway through the season most likely so by that time the waiver wire is already thinning out so it’s hard to adjust if he does indeed affect Chubb to a noticeable extent. And with him being a RB1 I would certainly put him at the back end of that designation now because I like my RB1 to be in a stable environment - things like at least a year in the current system (more obviously being more telling), no significant coaching changes, no additions in the backfield (including the QB), etc. I like stability with my 1’s and I’ll roll the dice on my 3’s and 4’s mostly but also my 2’s at times. I probably will not be taking Chubb at his current ADP because someone will draft him higher based on him not being affected at all by Hunt and I won’t do that. 

Edited by Elevencents
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Chubb owner here..(fortunately he is my RB2 behind Kamara).  Hunt will have low impact on Chubb's value long term, but he might be a nuisance for a few weeks....

Again, Hunt is a "bargaining chip" Clev is using.  They might have him play 2-3 games RBBC before trade deadline and he goes off to build more draft picks!  

I still see Chubb as Top 10 

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29 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Chubb owner here..(fortunately he is my RB2 behind Kamara).  Hunt will have low impact on Chubb's value long term, but he might be a nuisance for a few weeks....

Again, Hunt is a "bargaining chip" Clev is using.  They might have him play 2-3 games RBBC before trade deadline and he goes off to build more draft picks!  

I still see Chubb as Top 10 

The bolded is the issue I think I'm having. Most people are speaking as if it's impossible for Hunt - one of the best RBs in the league - to cut into Chubb's fantasy value. It's not impossible in my opinion. I think that is more of a maybe Hunt will have a low impact on Chubb's value long term. And maybe Cleveland is using Hunt as a bargaining chip. You and the pundits could be right, but one of this is a foregone conclusion and competition for Chubb's job has intensified compared to where it was a week ago. I felt much better about owning Chubb prior to Hunt being there. For 2019, I think Hunt sits out a lot of it - though will be coming back at a critical time for fantasy owners and then you have uncertainty of a RBBC. Or what if say in week 10, Chubb get's hurt. The door is now open with Hunt as the replacement. Is it possible also that the Browns are concerned long-term about Chubb's knee holding up? I think that it's certainly possible. All this makes me want to use Chubb as a trading chip to get even better at RB. It's not selling low if you add him as part of a deal to say get Kamara, Elliot, Gurley etc.  That's what I'm trying to do now.

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1 hour ago, Elevencents said:

I’m not a huge fan of uncertain situations. So I think that’s the biggest knock on Chubb now - the uncertainty of how Hunt will be used. And this is coming midway through the season most likely so by that time the waiver wire is already thinning out so it’s hard to adjust if he does indeed affect Chubb to a noticeable extent. And with him being a RB1 I would certainly put him at the back end of that designation now because I like my RB1 to be in a stable environment - things like at least a year in the current system (more obviously being more telling), no significant coaching changes, no additions in the backfield (including the QB), etc. I like stability with my 1’s and I’ll roll the dice on my 3’s and 4’s mostly but also my 2’s at times. I probably will not be taking Chubb at his current ADP because someone will draft him higher based on him not being affected at all by Hunt and I won’t do that. 

This is how I feel and essential what I'm trying to turn Chubb into. A more stable RB1 situation. If I can't do that, I'm happy to keep him but I'm not living in the bubble of denial that adding a very good RB means nothing to Chubb's value. I will feel better when Hunt is traded...

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I put him at RB6-9 which is probably optimistic but I'm a Browns fan so screw you and your judgement :P

Factor Hunt won't be on the field for a minimum 6 games (I'm thinking more like 8 because of other transgressions) so probably half the season. He will have an impact but in my estimation, it will be more like Duke Johnson's impact on Chubb's numbers. My best case scenario; by the time Hunt sees the field the Browns are rocking on all cylinders. Mayfield continues to grow into a top tier QB, the WR corp is stabilized and while not having a league leader in stats, 4-5 of them are top 20 because Mayfield spreads it around. Chubb is a top 10 RB with a couple games of 150+ yards and multiple TD's. At that point, Hunt enters the equation as a complimentary piece not a focus. Why would you upset the apple cart? Johnson's touches suffer the most and he becomes trade bait or relegated to a handful of touches a game or moved totally outside to a WR type position.

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18 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Chubb fell to RB13 in the FBG Survivor draft that started this week (best ball ppr league).  Before the Hunt signing I would have had him at RB6-7.  RB13 seems like a steep decline for me.  Interested in your thoughts.

What's this, now?  Is this a Boltbacker-sponsored draft?  Where was my invite?!

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4 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

Chubb owner here..(fortunately he is my RB2 behind Kamara).  Hunt will have low impact on Chubb's value long term, but he might be a nuisance for a few weeks....

Again, Hunt is a "bargaining chip" Clev is using.  They might have him play 2-3 games RBBC before trade deadline and he goes off to build more draft picks!  

I still see Chubb as Top 10 

He signed for one year, he’s not trade bait. He’s a cheap backup for the second half of the year.

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16 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

He signed for one year, he’s not trade bait. He’s a cheap backup for the second half of the year.

He’s signed for 1 year, but then he’ll be a RFA.  Cle can tender him without much financial risk.

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6 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

He’s signed for 1 year, but then he’ll be a RFA.  Cle can tender him without much financial risk.

Yes and why would the Browns let him go? 

Edited by Gandalf

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Just now, Gandalf said:

Yes and why would the Browns let him go? 

Plenty of reasons; most of them involve them getting something of value in return.

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1 minute ago, Bayhawks said:

Plenty of reasons; most of them involve them getting something of value in return.

It would take a massive haul at this point. Think if you would the Cleveland GM. Also I’m still thinking Chubb’s knee might be a concern for them long term. 

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20 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

RB7 pre-trade, RB7 post-trade.

what trade?

 

Hunt will get some run at the end of the year, in dyno no impact at all.....redraft....considering I think Duke still gets some catches....he's a draft and then trade pre-playffos IMO, when does Hunt come in? can you cheaply handcuff in case of injury? Can you keep a roster spot open for Hunt all season? I might avoid in redraft.

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

It would take a massive haul at this point. Think if you would the Cleveland GM. Also I’m still thinking Chubb’s knee might be a concern for them long term. 

While that’s possible, you’d have to assume Hunts behavior might be a concern, too.

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Well, from what I’m seeing Chubb is overvalued - maybe significantly - and Hunt is undervalued - maybe significantly, but nothing new there.  Seems odd to me, but perception is reality.

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I think the week 8 trade deadline is important here. If Hunt gets 6-8 games and there's a significant injury, I can see a trade happening. Certainly Chubb will cement his value by then.

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3 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

what trade?

 

Hunt will get some run at the end of the year, in dyno no impact at all.....redraft....considering I think Duke still gets some catches....he's a draft and then trade pre-playffos IMO, when does Hunt come in? can you cheaply handcuff in case of injury? Can you keep a roster spot open for Hunt all season? I might avoid in redraft.

Pre-Hunt, my bad.

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I'm considering selling Chubb. While Hunt is going to be suspended to start the year, I think Hunt is better than Chubb and nothing is stopping the browns from signing him long term and having depth at rb. Chubb is dirt cheap for another 2 yrs

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6 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Well, from what I’m seeing Chubb is overvalued - maybe significantly - and Hunt is undervalued - maybe significantly, but nothing new there.  Seems odd to me, but perception is reality.

Winner winner

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On 2/14/2019 at 9:44 PM, BassNBrew said:

Chubb fell to RB13 in the FBG Survivor draft that started this week (best ball ppr league).  Before the Hunt signing I would have had him at RB6-7.  RB13 seems like a steep decline for me.  Interested in your thoughts.

Considering that this is a PPR format and Nick Chubb finished as RB 17 last year in this format, you may have been over valuing Chubb even without the Browns signing Kareem Hunt, which I do not think has much impact on Chubbs value.

There are obviously several reasons to expect Chubb to finish higher in 2019 than he did last season, I am not sure that would get Chubb to RB 7 unless he caught a lot of passes, which I am not sure he will with Duke Johnson available for that purpose.

If I pro rate Chubbs numbers post Hyde trade he had 17.6 rushing attempts 2.6 targets 2 receptions per game. Over 16 games this would be 281 rushing attempts 42 targets 29 receptions. At 4.5 ypc (more volume lower ypc) and 7.5 ypr this would be 1264 rushing yards 218 receiving yards. 1481 total yards 14 TD and 29 receptions is 261 points which would have finished as RB 7 last season, but there are several other RB who missed games or have outlooks that look like they will improve in 2019 if they also are healthy all 16 games, such as Bell for example which when you account for then would have Chubb somewhere at RB 10 to 13 assuming those RB have significantly more receptions than Chubb.

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On 2/16/2019 at 10:48 PM, Biabreakable said:

There are obviously several reasons to expect Chubb to finish higher in 2019 than he did last season, I am not sure that would get Chubb to RB 7 unless he caught a lot of passes, which I am not sure he will with Duke Johnson available for that purpose.

This is the crux of the disconnect, right here. In today's NFL it's effectively impossible to post a top-7 full-PPR fantasy finish without catching at least 40-50 passes, no matter how much of a bellcow you are on 1st / 2nd down.

It's not just Duke that Chubb has to siphon volume from, either, as Landry was targeted 149 times last year out of the slot. Chubb could be the second coming of Alvin Kamara as a pass-catcher and I'd still struggle to see how he gets the ~80 targets he would need with these two in the mix.

The biggest reason for optimism is that the Browns have a new coaching staff - yes, Kitchens is still around, but Monken will be writing the offensive game plans, and there's no reason to assume things will be at all like 2018. Perhaps he decides to funnel a bunch of Landry's targets to the backfield instead. Maybe he decides Chubb's a better scheme fit than Duke and writes Johnson's old role out of the offense. Anything could happen, but on balance it's more likely that Chubb's role in the pass game increases than decreases ... so while I agree that RB7 pre-Hunt was ambitious, there was at least a path to getting there.

Post-Hunt, though, I think the ~RB13 spot where Bass got him is about as high as I'd feel comfortable going on him.

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On 2/14/2019 at 10:44 PM, BassNBrew said:

Chubb fell to RB13 in the FBG Survivor draft that started this week (best ball ppr league).  Before the Hunt signing I would have had him at RB6-7.  RB13 seems like a steep decline for me.  Interested in your thoughts.

Drafted at rb12 in the second fbg league

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13 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

This is the crux of the disconnect, right here. In today's NFL it's effectively impossible to post a top-7 full-PPR fantasy finish without catching at least 40-50 passes, no matter how much of a bellcow you are on 1st / 2nd down.

It's not just Duke that Chubb has to siphon volume from, either, as Landry was targeted 149 times last year out of the slot. Chubb could be the second coming of Alvin Kamara as a pass-catcher and I'd still struggle to see how he gets the ~80 targets he would need with these two in the mix.

The biggest reason for optimism is that the Browns have a new coaching staff - yes, Kitchens is still around, but Monken will be writing the offensive game plans, and there's no reason to assume things will be at all like 2018. Perhaps he decides to funnel a bunch of Landry's targets to the backfield instead. Maybe he decides Chubb's a better scheme fit than Duke and writes Johnson's old role out of the offense. Anything could happen, but on balance it's more likely that Chubb's role in the pass game increases than decreases ... so while I agree that RB7 pre-Hunt was ambitious, there was at least a path to getting there.

Post-Hunt, though, I think the ~RB13 spot where Bass got him is about as high as I'd feel comfortable going on him.

Yeah the projection I made was good because of Chubbs high TD rate in the 10 game sample.

While I could see Chubb catching more passes than 29 I dont see reasons why he will.

As far as the scoring Adrian Petersons 2k rushing season still wasnt enough to be the top RB. They need to catch a lot of balls too.

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9 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

While I could see Chubb catching more passes than 29 I dont see reasons why he will.

As far as the scoring Adrian Petersons 2k rushing season still wasnt enough to be the top RB. They need to catch a lot of balls too.

FWIW, Chubb only caught 20 balls last year, not 29. Tough to argue there isn't at least some room to the upside from that. As for reasons why, well, the best reason I've got is that it's difficult to script an effective offense with 3 backs getting substantial snap counts. The places where it was tried (PHI, SEA, DET, BAL pre-Jackson) were basically a who's who of offenses that couldn't get out of their own way. And once Hunt's back on the active roster, Duke's almost certainly the odd man out.

And your last sentence seems to be saying exactly the same thing my first couple of sentences did so I think we're in agreement there.

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7 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

FWIW, Chubb only caught 20 balls last year, not 29. Tough to argue there isn't at least some room to the upside from that. As for reasons why, well, the best reason I've got is that it's difficult to script an effective offense with 3 backs getting substantial snap counts. The places where it was tried (PHI, SEA, DET, BAL pre-Jackson) were basically a who's who of offenses that couldn't get out of their own way. And once Hunt's back on the active roster, Duke's almost certainly the odd man out.

And your last sentence seems to be saying exactly the same thing my first couple of sentences did so I think we're in agreement there.

I was actually wrong as Peterson caught 40 balls in 2012 and several important RB got hurt that year as well. 

Still you get the idea.

The projection for Chubb above is assuming about 20 opportunities per game. I agree with you that Duke may take a backseat to Hunt once he is reinstated, and then you may have more of a time share of Hunt with Chubb that could cause those opportunities to decrease later on in the season. It is a pretty optimistic projection I think.

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Maybe I am missing something, but I just see this thread as way too optimistic for Chubb.  A 6 game suspension may or may not happen, but I think Hunt can reasonably argue that he's already missed 5 games without pay due to this incident. 

I think people are deluding themselves if they believe Hunt will be a bit player once he comes back.  He's legitimately a very good RB in his own right, and we really have no idea what Monken & Kitchens will decide to do with both as of yet.  

Also seems pretty doubtful they would take a young stud RB that they can control for 2 years VERY cheaply and use him as trade bait.  Cleveland looks like the best team in the AFC North to me, and I don't think they'll be trading away young difference making players anytime soon.  

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4 hours ago, Kitrick Taylor said:

Maybe I am missing something, but I just see this thread as way too optimistic for Chubb.  A 6 game suspension may or may not happen, but I think Hunt can reasonably argue that he's already missed 5 games without pay due to this incident. 

I think people are deluding themselves if they believe Hunt will be a bit player once he comes back.  He's legitimately a very good RB in his own right, and we really have no idea what Monken & Kitchens will decide to do with both as of yet.  

Also seems pretty doubtful they would take a young stud RB that they can control for 2 years VERY cheaply and use him as trade bait.  Cleveland looks like the best team in the AFC North to me, and I don't think they'll be trading away young difference making players anytime soon.  

This is how I pretty much feel 

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I'm guessing the Browns expect KHunt to have a very big impact on Chubb.  I think they hope he stands at attention more, expands his role, really gets the blood flowing.  Khunt should be good motivation to get into top shape and maintain it - you don't want to get soft and lumpy around Khunt.  I think Chubb will follow KHunt all over the place, always be poking around, never missing a change to learn - I know I do when presented similar opportunities.  Mistakes will happen and sure things might get heated but making up will be the best part.  He'll probably take a week or so off per month just to make sure things don't get too messy though.  I think the only thing they'll worry about is if he overdoes it - I'd guess they call in the doctor if he's still going full speed after the game's over - 4 hours is a long time for a player like that.

Edited by Hankmoody

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