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IvanKaramazov

Robert Kraft (yes, THAT Robert Kraft) charged with soliciting prostitution

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11 minutes ago, bigbottom said:

Interesting development. For anyone who has read the detailed reports, were the two women referenced the only women providing services at the parlor?

No.  But the ones named are all old.  A few were unidentified.  I'd bet they're also old though.

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You want to stop trafficking, legalize and regulate.   I think Jim Jeffries has a bit on this.  When they legalized it in Australia, human trafficking went away and the divorce rate dropped.

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7 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

I understand you don't want to read the study without first attacking it on every possible level, but it's worth at least a few glances.  

As a show of good faith, check out table 3.15 with 1,366 responses.

I was just waiting until I finished catching up to the thread, heading over to it now.  You're wrong about my motivations though.  I'm just a skeptic at heart, I have no real agenda other than I hope we can do better about this situation than we have been.

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4 minutes ago, Ramblin Wreck said:

Don't you think there are enough 40 or 50 somethings in this industry that makes you question whether they've been doing this against their will for 40 something years or your averages posted can't be accurate?   Isn't it much more likely that these older women are choosing to do this for cash?

1. No.  For a variety of reasons, especially those brought here from another country and because 40 minus 40 is zero, which isn't a number I think is a likely mean, median, or mode for a prostitute to start working

2. No.  Does it concern you that if those numbers are right there are probably two or more eight to ten year olds being exploited for every person who enters the sex trade over 30?

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4 minutes ago, (HULK) said:

I was just waiting until I finished catching up to the thread, heading over to it now.  You're wrong about my motivations though.  I'm just a skeptic at heart, I have no real agenda other than I hope we can do better about this situation than we have been.

If you're waiting to read it until you finish the thread, it could be helpful to wait to claim it's useless and doesn't say what I think it does for multiple different reasons until you've finished the thread and read it.

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7 minutes ago, (HULK) said:

No.  But the ones named are all old.  A few were unidentified.  I'd bet they're also old though.

It's also illegal for them to identify in any way an underage sex crime victim in a public report.

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2 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

It's also illegal for them to identify in any way an underage sex crime victim in a public report.

But they would generalize the demographic the victim fit within... female / male / under 17 / under 13 etc. Right? Especially in the criminal complaint for the Johns 

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1 minute ago, Epic Problem said:

But they would generalize the demographic the victim fit within... female / male / under 17 / under 13 etc. Right? Especially in the criminal complaint for the Johns 

It honestly depends.  

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5 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

If you're waiting to read it until you finish the thread, it could be helpful to wait to claim it's useless and doesn't say what I think it does for multiple different reasons until you've finished the thread and read it.

I skimmed the link you posted. Am I reading it wrong, or is it pretty much talking about young girls (below 18, for the most part) in New York and how they are exploited? I just didn't see anything discussing ALL sex workers.

It's still very discouraging to see the numbers, but I just don't see where it is referring to all sex workers. It think Hulk has brought up the same point.

And note that they include strippers in the definition of Commercially Sexually Exploited Children. We can all agree that a 17 year old stripper is a tragedy, but we can also hopefully agree it is not in the same ball park as children being used as sex slaves.

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3 hours ago, Henry Ford said:

 

There are multiple studies.  This is one.  If you have a study you'd like to link, I'm happy to read.

 

 

Okay, looked at table 3.15.

This was based upon information from exploited children.  It is completely unfair to say that this is representative of all sex-workers.

The table is explained as "Table 3.15 presents other characteristics of the CSEC’s most recent commercial sexual exploitation, as well as the prevalence of prior episodes and age at first episode. It shows that:"

CSEC = Commercial Sexual Exploitation of Children.

 

So, again, this data pool is representative of sexually exploited children (not all sex workers).  It should not be surprising or shocking that the average age of their first exploitation is when they were a child.  All commercially sexually exploited children are sex workers, but not all sex workers were commercially sexually exploited children.

Beyond this, you have confused mode and mean.  14-15 was the mode age, not the average.  Averages are not given.

 

Maybe I'm wrong to assume that, to utilize your turn of phrase, any reasonably intelligent person understands enough about statistics to not conflate mean and mode, and to not apply one data set to a much larger and diverse data set, and to not present these things as irrefutable facts.

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14 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

1. No.  For a variety of reasons, especially those brought here from another country and because 40 minus 40 is zero, which isn't a number I think is a likely mean, median, or mode for a prostitute to start working

2. No.  Does it concern you that if those numbers are right there are probably two or more eight to ten year olds being exploited for every person who enters the sex trade over 30?

Strangely, for the data you pointed to in table 13.5, 0% in NYC reported being commercially sexually exploited children at an age younger than 12, however upstate did have 7% at less than 9 years old, and a staggering 43% at 10 to 11 years old (and it was that categories mode).

 

Let me be perfectly clear, I would love to end CSEC.  But we're not going to do it with pretend numbers.  And CSEC has about zero to do with the Robert Kraft thing.  If you paint with a broad brush and conflate everything, I don't see how you can expect to contribute towards progress.

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17 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

If you're waiting to read it until you finish the thread, it could be helpful to wait to claim it's useless and doesn't say what I think it does for multiple different reasons until you've finished the thread and read it.

It absolutely did not say that sex workers enter the industry at 14-15 years of age on average.

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18 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

It's also illegal for them to identify in any way an underage sex crime victim in a public report.

If there is a brothel and it has one or two 17 year old girls working there, and 4 women aged 40 to 60, do you think the women 40 to 60 are seeing the majority of the customers?  I don't.

 

I'll be floored if there was someone underage at Orchids of Asia Day Spa.

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4 minutes ago, (HULK) said:

Okay, looked at table 3.15.

This was based upon information from exploited children.  It is completely unfair to say that this is representative of all sex-workers.

The table is explained as "Table 3.15 presents other characteristics of the CSEC’s most recent commercial sexual exploitation, as well as the prevalence of prior episodes and age at first episode. It shows that:"

CSEC = Commercial Sexual Exploitation of Children.

 

So, again, this data pool is representative of sexually exploited children (not all sex workers).  It should not be surprising or shocking that the average age of their first exploitation is when they were a child.  All commercially sexually exploited children are sex workers, but not all sex workers were commercially sexually exploited children.

Beyond this, you have confused mode and mean.  14-15 was the mode age, not the average.  Averages are not given.

 

Maybe I'm wrong to assume that, to utilize your turn of phrase, any reasonably intelligent person understands enough about statistics to not conflate mean and mode, and to not apply one data set to a much larger and diverse data set, and to not present these things as irrefutable facts.

I see.  So we're going with "the mode is not an average."  Also, that we can't add responses with numerical values and thereby have a mean.

It's been a pleasure.  Have a good one.

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I love the police spokesperson: "The larger picture, which we must all confront, is the cold reality that many prostitutes in cases like this are themselves victims, often lured to this country with promises of a better life, only to be forced to live and work in a sweat shop or a brothel performing sex acts for strangers," Aronberg said.

Uh yeah. "The larger picture." Not this picture, Aronberg. 

"...many prostitutes in cases like this..." But what about this case, Aronberg?  

When you don't have facts, have your lawyer craft a generalized narrative. That'll do it!  

Edited by rockaction

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1 minute ago, Henry Ford said:

I see.  So we're going with "the mode is not an average." 

I have no dog in the race but he is correct, mode is not the average.  It is a completely different math definition.

1, 1, 1, 15, 17, 20, 21

Mode = 1

Mean/Average = 10.857

Median = 15

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Just now, NewlyRetired said:

I have no dog in the race but he is correct, mode is not the average.  It is a completely different math definition.

1, 1, 1, 15, 17, 20, 21

Mode = 1

Mean/Average = 10.857

Median = 15

Mode, median, and mean are all average values. 

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Another interesting article from Elizabeth Nolan Brown, tangentially related to both this case and the Jussie Smollett case. 

Her contention is that incidents of hate crimes and human trafficking are either remaining constant or decreasing.  

http://reason.com/blog/2019/02/22/hate-crimes-and-human-trafficking

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4 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Mode, median, and mean are all average values. 

Yeah, a quick internet search finds them as having an "average" (in quotes). 

From Khan Academy, a quick and often-used primer 

Mean, median, and mode

Mean, median, and mode are different measures of center in a numerical data set. They each try to summarize a dataset with a single number to represent a "typical" data point from the dataset.

Mean: The "average" number; found by adding all data points and dividing by the number of data points. 

Example: The mean of 444, 111, and 777 is (4+1+7)/3=12/3=4(4+1+7)/3=12/3=4left parenthesis, 4, plus, 1, plus, 7, right parenthesis, slash, 3, equals, 12, slash, 3, equals, 4.

Median: The middle number; found by ordering all data points and picking out the one in the middle (or if there are two middle numbers, taking the mean of those two numbers). 

Example: The median of 444, 111, and 777 is 444 because when the numbers are put in order (1(1left parenthesis, 1, 444, 7)7)7, right parenthesis, the number 444 is in the middle.

Mode: The most frequent number—that is, the number that occurs the highest number of times.

Example: The mode of {4,3,2,4,2,2} is 2 because it occurs three times, which is more than any other number.

I'm no statistical wizard, but this is what I was always taught.  

Edited by rockaction

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, a quick internet search finds them as having an "average" (in quotes). 

From Khan Academy, a quick and often-used primer 

Mean, median, and mode

Mean, median, and mode are different measures of center in a numerical data set. They each try to summarize a dataset with a single number to represent a "typical" data point from the dataset.

Mean: The "average" number; found by adding all data points and dividing by the number of data points. 

Example: The mean of 444, 111, and 777 is (4+1+7)/3=12/3=4(4+1+7)/3=12/3=4left parenthesis, 4, plus, 1, plus, 7, right parenthesis, slash, 3, equals, 12, slash, 3, equals, 4.

Median: The middle number; found by ordering all data points and picking out the one in the middle (or if there are two middle numbers, taking the mean of those two numbers). 

Example: The median of 444, 111, and 777 is 444 because when the numbers are put in order (1(1left parenthesis, 1, 444, 7)7)7, right parenthesis, the number 444 is in the middle.

Mode: The most frequent number—that is, the number that occurs the highest number of times.

Example: The mode of {4{4left brace, 4, 222, 444, 333, 222, 2}2}2, right brace is 222 because it occurs three times, which is more than any other number.

I'm no statistical wizard, but this is what I was always taught.  

I a lot of this formatting got screwed up.  Just see my previous post for a very simple example of the differences between mode, median and mean/average

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3 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

? huh ?

 

I don't know how to say that differently and mean the same thing.

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1 minute ago, NewlyRetired said:

I a lot of this formatting got screwed up.  Just see my previous post for a very simple example of the differences between mode, median and mean/average

Yep. Yours was right. I was just sourcing. 

Now edited for clarity and proper format.  

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Just now, Henry Ford said:

I don't know how to say that differently and mean the same thing.

well I guess the engineer in me is simply going to ignore this because it makes absolutely no mathematical sense. 

You might be speaking in pure colloquial language but that has no real mathematical meaning.

 

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9 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, a quick internet search finds them as having an "average" (in quotes). 

From Khan Academy, a quick and often-used primer 

(blah blah blah removed for brevity)

I'm no statistical wizard, but this is what I was always taught.  

 

12 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Mode, median, and mean are all average values. 

 

4 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

well I guess the engineer in me is simply going to ignore this because it makes absolutely no mathematical sense. 

You might be speaking in pure colloquial language but that has no real mathematical meaning.

 

Perhaps this has been taught differently in different places and at different times. I learned it as @NewlyRetired described. Three different things, with "mean" being the one that equals "average".

Edited by VandyMan
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2 minutes ago, VandyMan said:

Perhaps this has been taught differently in different places and at different times. 

I don't think so. 

By the 7th grade almost every child is taught the difference between mode, median and mean(average).  These are core statistical mathematical principles.  They are not taught differently based on where you live in the country.

 

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11 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

I don't think so. 

By the 7th grade almost every child is taught the difference between mode, median and mean(average).  These are core statistical mathematical principles.  They are not taught differently based on where you live in the country.

 

Statistics and engineering can use similar but not identical language regarding measures of central tendency. 

Edited by Henry Ford

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10 minutes ago, NewlyRetired said:

I don't think so. 

By the 7th grade almost every child is taught the difference between mode, median and mean(average).  These are core statistical mathematical principles.  They are not taught differently based on where you live in the country.

 

In Louisiana 23 is > 26 so mode could be the average.

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some interesting tweets

===============

T.J. Quinn✔@TJQuinnESPN

Sources who have seen the surveillance video say it is unquestionably Kraft and they don't expect him to dispute the charges (although he could plead down). Again, Kraft's attorneys deny he broke any laws.

 

T.J. Quinn✔@TJQuinnESPN

Many asking if the Kraft video will be released. Law enforcement officials expect yes, although most graphic parts likely will be either eliminated or pixilated. Again, I'm told it's... graphic. Expecting motion to seal in 3... 2... 1...

 

Michele Steele✔@ESPNMichele

Spoke with the state attorney prosecuting Kraft's case - says that the state does not need the women involved to testify, they have "proof beyond a reasonable doubt." As for the video, FL has v strong sunshine laws - but something "pornographic" might not make it to the public.

 

Michele Steele✔@ESPNMichele

Proof includes video evidence for the 2 first-degree misdemeanor counts of solicitation of prostitution. Again, there is no allegation or charge he knew about the underlying human trafficking.

Edited by NewlyRetired

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On 2/22/2019 at 12:12 PM, Don Quixote said:

Ryan Glasspiegel
‏ @sportsrapport

Adam Schefter just said on SportsCenter that a source told him Kraft is "not the biggest name" caught up in this sting. ...............

Um, what happened to this?  They must have been pretty big to make this "go away".

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41 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

I see.  So we're going with "the mode is not an average."  Also, that we can't add responses with numerical values and thereby have a mean.

It's been a pleasure.  Have a good one.

Well, it's still telling that the mode was 14-15. That means that ages 14-15 occured most in the data set.

Surely you can admit that this is different from the average, which is simply what is being pointed out.

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1 hour ago, Henry Ford said:

The number I'm using is the number when these women were first exploited.

The average someone enters the NFL is probably around 22.  That isn't affected by Drew Brees playing football at 40.

Kudos for not using the more obvious Tom Brady reference.

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9 minutes ago, kutta said:

Well, it's still telling that the mode was 14-15. That means that ages 14-15 occured most in the data set.

Surely you can admit that this is different from the average, which is simply what is being pointed out.

It’s different from the mean, absolutely. 

Although the mean in that study was also, I believe, between 14-15. 

Edited by Henry Ford

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1 minute ago, Henry Ford said:

It’s different from the mean, absolutely. 

👍

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47 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

I don't know how to say that differently and mean the same thing.

I see what you did there. 

Trying to confuse us even more?

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3 minutes ago, Buttonhook said:

I see what you did there. 

Trying to confuse us even more?

It’s within the range. 

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1 hour ago, Henry Ford said:

I see.  So we're going with "the mode is not an average."  Also, that we can't add responses with numerical values and thereby have a mean.

It's been a pleasure.  Have a good one.

The data doesn't match your claim.

 

I haven't been around much lately, but I don't remember you just being an outright troll.

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Just now, (HULK) said:

The data doesn't match your claim.

 

I haven't been around much lately, but I don't remember you just being an outright troll.

Hmm.  Perhaps you might find another theory of what’s happening here, then. 

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1 hour ago, Henry Ford said:

1. No.  For a variety of reasons, especially those brought here from another country and because 40 minus 40 is zero, which isn't a number I think is a likely mean, median, or mode for a prostitute to start working

2. No.  Does it concern you that if those numbers are right there are probably two or more eight to ten year olds being exploited for every person who enters the sex trade over 30?

:confused:

Dude....I'd had pie on my face before (is that the expression?)....just own it.

You were pretty wrong in this thread from the beginning regarding the underage / sex slaves / human trafficking angle you were pushing hard.

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6 minutes ago, eoMMan said:

:confused:

Dude....I'd had pie on my face before (is that the expression?)....just own it.

You were pretty wrong in this thread from the beginning regarding the underage / sex slaves / human trafficking angle you were pushing hard.

Then I don’t believe you have reviewed my actual posts on that subject. 

Two people in this sting were arrested for soliciting sex with teenagers (including a likely fictional 14 year old)

One person arrested was trying to press a seventeen year old into prostitution   

This is a human trafficking sting. 

Human trafficking in this context is the use of women as sex slaves.  

If that all seems wrong to you, it’s the announcement by the police, which I linked. 

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45 minutes ago, kutta said:

Well, it's still telling that the mode was 14-15. That means that ages 14-15 occured most in the data set.

Surely you can admit that this is different from the average, which is simply what is being pointed out.

I agree it's a useful data point.

 

What's startling to me is comparing the NYC numbers to the upstate NY numbers... They're right next to each other, identical laws, and drastically different.

 

And just a quick note, mode is not a measure of average, it is a measure of frequency. Mean is the exact measure of average, and median is a quick approximation of average. Mode is only a measure of frequency. For example the number set {1,1,1,1,1,5,90,900, 9000, 90000} has a mean of 10,000, a median of 3, and a mode of 1.  If that data represented the number of sexual partners 10 randomly samples FBGs had in their life and I said, "The average FBG will have just 1 lifetime sexual partner", I'd be very wrong and misleading, as the data says something else entirely.

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44 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

It’s different from the mean, absolutely. 

Although the mean in that study was also, I believe, between 14-15. 

I didn't see that published there. Really, I only brought it up as a math nerd footnote.

 

The real issue is that the data set is children who are sexually exploited and you said that the results apply to all sex workers, which they do not.

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32 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Hmm.  Perhaps you might find another theory of what’s happening here, then. 

You're being intentionally obtuse?  I dunno.

 

I remember you as pretty sharp.

 

Perhaps you're letting your personal bias cloud the issue?  I really don't know, I'm not a mind reader.

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