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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Hakeem Butler, Cardinals

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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Having a lot of mouths to feed is one thing when they're just on the depth chart. It's another thing when they're actually all lot on the field.

I can see liking the talent of Kirk/Isabella/Butler but I don't know how you're going to get consistent performance out of any of them.

I think when you see the success Murray had with Hollywood and how much he relied on him, and how the air raid system works the short to I intermediate routes, I think that favors a certain type of wr. 

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

yep. I was prepared for that one. if hes going to fudge the numbers then so can i

You say fudge.  I say it's a broader way to look at it.  Rounds really mean nothing.  Would N'Keal be less valuable if he was taken at 33rd overall instead of 32nd?  The answer is no.

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Butler has a lot of odds stacked against him... he has a 12-25% chance of becoming an NFL starter for at least half of his career (based off 2015 data), he cant catch, and he has a 90% chance of not becoming a fantasy wr1 based on his breakout age and dominator score. 

Man, this guy is going to buck all of the trends

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And Isabella is going to buck the trend that fast, very short dudes with baby hands, T-Rex arms, and average quicks is going to be a star.

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31 minutes ago, doowain said:

And Isabella is going to buck the trend that fast, very short dudes with baby hands, T-Rex arms, and average quicks is going to be a star.

if you can show me some data on that I'd love to have that discussion. I can show you data that says he has a greater chance at nfl success and less of a risk for fantasy failure than Butler. 

 

ETA: never said hed be a star. it's very possible to be a fantasy ppr workhorse and not an NFL star. I am merely saying Isabella has a greater chance at starting >50% of his games and has less risk of not becoming a fantasy wr1 than butler. 

It is possible to be a fantasy ppr dream and not be an NFL star

Edited by Dr. Dan

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43 minutes ago, doowain said:

And Isabella is going to buck the trend that fast, very short dudes with baby hands, T-Rex arms, and average quicks is going to be a star.

Doesn't it seem obvious to you that Arizona thinks Isabella has a better chance to be a star than Butler?

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On 5/6/2019 at 10:08 AM, doowain said:

You say fudge.  I say it's a broader way to look at it.  Rounds really mean nothing.  Would N'Keal be less valuable if he was taken at 33rd overall instead of 32nd?  The answer is no.

 

no to nitpick, but to be honest, yes he probably would be less valuable.    harry was drafted number 32 in the first round and he became a consensus top 2 pick.  deebo samuel was picked four picks later and is a late first rounder

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2 minutes ago, Skeletore Eh said:

no to nitpick, but to be honest, yes he probably would be less valuable.    harry was drafted number 32 in the first round and he became a consensus top 2 pick.  deebo samuel was picked four picks later and is a late first rounder

These values this year are out of whack. Butler is a 1st round pick a lot of times. Pre draft hype carries over. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Skeletore Eh said:

 

no to nitpick, but to be honest, yes he probably would be less valuable.    harry was drafted number 32 in the first round and he became a consensus top 2 pick.  deebo samuel was picked four picks later and is a late first rounder

But that’s likely more a product of Harry being considered one of the better WR prospects in this class with the highest upside and an NFL team validating that viewpoint compared to Samuel, whom most didn’t view as having that same potential.  

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On 5/6/2019 at 8:00 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

Doesn't it seem obvious to you that Arizona thinks Isabella has a better chance to be a star than Butler?

And the Cards also thought Matt Leinart was a great pick.

 

Hakeem Butler is a beast. 

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

And the Cards also thought Matt Leinart was a great pick.

 

Hakeem Butler is a beast. 

Arizona missed on Leinart, so the chances arent bad that they missed on Isabella, but this same team... that's awful at drafting... hit a home run with Butler.

Not the best counterpoint to his point IMO

the team has a history of not drafting well, so they must have drafted well in round 4.

It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for them...

Edited by Dr. Dan
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56 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Arizona missed on Leinart, so the chances arent bad that they missed on Isabella, but this same team... that's awful at drafting... hit a home run with Butler.

Not the best counterpoint to his point IMO

the team has a history of not drafting well, so they must have drafted well in round 4.

It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for them...

He will not be able to see with that blindfold on, Cotton.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Arizona missed on Leinart, so the chances arent bad that they missed on Isabella, but this same team... that's awful at drafting... hit a home run with Butler.

Not the best counterpoint to his point IMO

the team has a history of not drafting well, so they must have drafted well in round 4.

It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for them...

My point was I don’t evaluate a rookie based on a team’s draft history.   

My opinion of Butler is that he was the WR SOD.

 

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7 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

My point was I don’t evaluate a rookie based on a team’s draft history.   

My opinion of Butler is that he was the WR SOD.

 

Makes sense. Thanks for clarifying. We disagree here but that's okay

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He is consistently falling to the middle and late 2nd round in my drafts. I've scooped him up several times at that 2.6-2.12 spot. Happy to take a chance there 

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

He is consistently falling to the middle and late 2nd round in my drafts. I've scooped him up several times at that 2.6-2.12 spot. Happy to take a chance there 

On the flip side he just went at 1.03 in a rookie draft that started yesterday.

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

He is consistently falling to the middle and late 2nd round in my drafts. I've scooped him up several times at that 2.6-2.12 spot. Happy to take a chance there 

I wish he would fall to middle of the 2nd in any of mine. 

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12 hours ago, TripItUp said:

My point was I don’t evaluate a rookie based on a team’s draft history.  

 

I responded to a poster that is very high on Butler and was making fun of Isabella's size and small hands - it seemed like an odd position to take considering the Cardinals took Isabella two rounds earlier and that multiple NFL teams passed on Butler for other WRs. So their draft history had nothing to do with it - their current regime obviously thinks Isabella is the better prospect, so if you laugh at them for that you should also probably laugh at the fact they drafted a WR other teams did not want. 

Now draft position isn't a "be all, end all" predictor of NFL success but it is the most predictive tool in our toolbox. If Butler was some can't miss prospect teams would not have taken 12 WRs before he was picked, including a few flawed prospects and even the team that took him grabbed another WR first. And this isn't a fantasy football draft where teams can look at an ADP list and wait because they knew they could get Butler later.

If you're high on him, it shouldn't be something that completely sours you on him, but it should cause some pause. I just saw him go at 1.03 in a rookie draft. Could that pay off? Sure, but the odds say that was a huge mistake.

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46 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

 

Now draft position isn't a "be all, end all" predictor of NFL success but it is the most predictive tool in our toolbox.

We'll agree to disagree on this.  There are certainly many fantasy experts that can outperform the "draft position predictor."

That's one of many reasons rookie drafts just don't go in order of the NFL draft.  

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

We'll agree to disagree on this.  There are certainly many fantasy experts that can outperform the "draft position predictor."

 

If you want to disagree with facts, I suppose that's your prerogative. :shrug:

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

That's one of many reasons rookie drafts just don't go in order of the NFL draft.  

And now you're making straw man arguments - no one said you should follow NFL draft order exclusively, but to totally ignore it is a losing proposition over time.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And now you're making straw man arguments - no one said you should follow NFL draft order exclusively, but to totally ignore it is a losing proposition over time.

And now you're making false claims.  There is a difference between "totally ignore" and using draft order as your primary "predictor"

 

Let's try some intellectual honesty here.

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3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

And now you're making false claims.  There is a difference between "totally ignore" and using draft order as your primary "predictor"

I don't find this conversation worth pursuing - but what I said was that draft capitol expended is the best tool for predicting NFL success and that's a fact.

It doesn't mean that a 4th round WR can't have a better career than a second round WR but over time the odds are with the second round WR. In other words if you backed a fourth round WR over a second round WR every year in your draft you're going to lose at a high clip. The NFL draft is a pretty efficient market, but every market has some outliers.

Let's look at the top 24 dynasty RBs and where they were drafted. This is a random list (and rookies not included) so your order may be different but generally these are the top guys:

1 Saquan Barkley - Round 1

2 Ezekiel Elliott - Round 1

3 Alvin Kamara - Round 3

4 Christian McCaffrey - Round 1

5 Nick Chubb - Round 2

6 Todd Gurley - Round 1

7 LeVeon Bell - Round 2

8 Melvin Gordon- Round 1

9 Joe Mixon- Round 2

10 Leonard Fournette - Round 1

11 James Conner- Round 3

12 Dalvin Cook - Round 2

13 Derrius Guice- Round 2

14 Sony Michel - Round 1

15 David Johnson- Round 3

16 Aaron Jones- Round 5

17 Derrick Henry- Round 2

18 Keryon Johnson- Round 2

19 Kareem Hunt - Round 3

20 Devonta Freeman - Round 4

21 Tarik Cohen - Round 4

22 Mark Ingram - Round 1

23 Jordan Howard - Round 4

24 Marlon Mack - Round 4

 

Notice anything?

 

 

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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Now WRs:

1 Odell Beckham, Jr. - Round 1

2 DeAndre Hopkins - Round 1

3 Mike Evans - Round 1

4 Tyreek Hill - Round 4

5 Michael Thomas - Round 2

6 Antonio Brown - Round 6

7 Davante Adams - Round 2

8 Brandin Cooks - Round 1

9 Julio Jones - Round 1

10 Amari Cooper - Round 1

11 Keenan Allen - Round 3

12 JuJu Smith-Shuster - Round 2

13 Adam Thielen - Undrafed

14 Stefon Diggs - Round 5

15 D.J. Moore - Round 1

16 Robert Woods - Round 2

17 AJ Green - Round 1

18 Kenny Golloday - Round 3

19 Calvin Ridley - Round 1

20 TY Hilton - Round 3

21 Alshon Jeffrey - Round 2

22 Cooper Kupp- Round 3

23 Allen Robinson - Round 2

24 Corey Davis - Round 1

25 Mike Williams - Round 1

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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Butler has a lot working against him toward being a fantasy WR1, or even WR2. 

Some has already been discussed: late breakout age, drops/poor hands, poor route running. 

Now factor in that he was a 4th round pick, and NFL wrs chosen in round 4 have a significantly less chance (12%) for NFL (or fantasy for that matter) success than 3rd round (25%) or 1st/2nd round picks (roughly 50%)... it's a lot to bet against. 

I could see if everything was great but his drafted round... there are plenty of prospects like that. But he has some pretty major warts, was drafted low, AND hes got a lot of competition for targets in AZ.

Smart money is not on Butler. He has to buck more than just 1 statistical trend to be a success. Maybe he does it and hes the one outlier. Probably not. 

he went 1.11 in my league to a Butler truther. Hes not even the best wr taken in round 4 IMO. I'd take him late round 2 or round 3 if he was there, but I'm not expecting much 

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Bloom is really high on this dude for whatever reason; took him in the 3rd round of our draft. Let's see how it plays out

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Butler has a lot working against him toward being a fantasy WR1, or even WR2. 

Some has already been discussed: late breakout age, drops/poor hands, poor route running. 

Now factor in that he was a 4th round pick, and NFL wrs chosen in round 4 have a significantly less chance (12%) for NFL (or fantasy for that matter) success than 3rd round (25%) or 1st/2nd round picks (roughly 50%)... it's a lot to bet against. 

I could see if everything was great but his drafted round... there are plenty of prospects like that. But he has some pretty major warts, was drafted low, AND hes got a lot of competition for targets in AZ.

Smart money is not on Butler. He has to buck more than just 1 statistical trend to be a success. Maybe he does it and hes the one outlier. Probably not. 

he went 1.11 in my league to a Butler truther. Hes not even the best wr taken in round 4 IMO. I'd take him late round 2 or round 3 if he was there, but I'm not expecting much 

Also he is on a team that took a WR in round 2 last year and another WR in round 2 in his same draft class. 

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2 hours ago, zeeshan2 said:

Bloom is really high on this dude for whatever reason; 

Probably because Bloom has actually watched him play. 

I would assume a lot of his detractors in this thread haven’t. 

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26 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Probably because Bloom has actually watched him play. 

I would assume a lot of his detractors in this thread haven’t. 

I watch a lot of Big-12 football with my allegiance to the mighty Longhorns, so I've seen this guy play quite a bit.  He's a beast with NFL measurables.  I like Christian Kirk but he profiles better as a #2 WR.  Isabella is a nice little slot guy but Butler has the makings of a #1 in this offense.

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30 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Probably because Bloom has actually watched him play. 

I would assume a lot of his detractors in this thread haven’t. 

i'd bet the NFL teams (who let him fall to the 4th round) have watched him more.

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35 minutes ago, nirad3 said:

I watch a lot of Big-12 football with my allegiance to the mighty Longhorns, so I've seen this guy play quite a bit.  He's a beast with NFL measurables.  I like Christian Kirk but he profiles better as a #2 WR.  Isabella is a nice little slot guy but Butler has the makings of a #1 in this offense.

:goodposting:

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Sounds like I should have taken him more than I did. But I still managed to land him at the 2.11, 2.8, and 2.7 in the 3 leagues I got him. I chose to draft Isabella before him in 2 other leagues and hope the Cardinals staff (and myself) were correct in doing so. :popcorn:

Edited by ffmail4me

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Question for the Butler fans.

If he profiles to be such a beast, why were 12 WR’s picked before him. What either is he missing in his game that made him fall, or what did all those GM’s miss?

Honest question. I’m a Cards homer and coming up to speed on these guys now.

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42 minutes ago, kutta said:

Question for the Butler fans.

If he profiles to be such a beast, why were 12 WR’s picked before him. What either is he missing in his game that made him fall, or what did all those GM’s miss?

Honest question. I’m a Cards homer and coming up to speed on these guys now.

I think it is mostly teams valuing fast route runners who are versatile and can separate over the traditional big receiver who makes catches in traffic and out-jumps and out-bigs people.   A lot of bigger WRs fell far in last years draft too. 

Offenses just seem to be operating more in space now, and are drafting smaller WRs to fit those schemes.  

I think this change is partially rules driven.  Before, tiny WRs would get destroyed by hits that used to be allowed on defenseless receivers, so they were probably out of favor then.  Now that the rules protect them from getting killed over the middle and otherwise, they are back in favor. 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

I think it is mostly teams valuing fast route runners who are versatile and can separate over the traditional big receiver who makes catches in traffic and out-jumps and out-bigs people.   A lot of bigger WRs fell far in last years draft too. 

Offenses just seem to be operating more in space now, and are drafting smaller WRs to fit those schemes.  

I think this change is partially rules driven.  Before, tiny WRs would get destroyed by hits that used to be allowed on defenseless receivers, so they were probably out of favor then.  Now that the rules protect them from getting killed over the middle and otherwise, they are back in favor. 

Makes sense, but five guys picked before him are 6’2” or bigger, and most of them are 6’0” or bigger. So it wasn’t just a bunch of fast little guys going ahead, though some were.

I will grant that Butler is one big dude though...

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37 minutes ago, kutta said:

Makes sense, but five guys picked before him are 6’2” or bigger, and most of them are 6’0” or bigger. So it wasn’t just a bunch of fast little guys going ahead, though some were.

I will grant that Butler is one big dude though...

Three of those were Harry, Metcalf, and JJAW who are very good prospects in their own right and fit well with the offensive schemes.  

Another possible factor is that Butler is very old for a prospect. 

The first pick of the 4th round is also basically a 3rd rounder as well.  It's on the edge of that one pick difference between day 2 and day 3 pick so he didn't fall that crazy far in the NFL draft. 

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I feel like he could scoreboard 8 touchdowns this year. That's where the value likely is with this it.

Kirk and Fitzgerald are defacto starters. I believe they will make good on going 4 wide. That looks room for the Rookies.

 

Still hoping Fitz can catch 85+ catches this season. Butler has the athletic profile of Devin Funchess. I don't know if he's had any leg injuries. But I've seen guys become MORE explosive in the NFL than they were in college.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

Makes sense, but five guys picked before him are 6’2” or bigger, and most of them are 6’0” or bigger. So it wasn’t just a bunch of fast little guys going ahead, though some were.

I will grant that Butler is one big dude though...

His issue is drops.

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On 5/2/2019 at 4:07 AM, cloppbeast said:

Isabella should be drafted ahead of Butler, and this comes from a guy who's been in the Butler camp since March. Whatever reason you could come up with has already been considered by the Arizona Cardinals. They looked at everything. Isabella is a better prospect.

Like the time they considered Bryant Johnson over Anquan Boldin?

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10 minutes ago, chook said:

Like the time they considered Bryant Johnson over Anquan Boldin?

The same staff?

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4 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

The same staff?

My point is the logic used isn't watertight 

Edited by chook

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8 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

 

The first pick of the 4th round is also basically a 3rd rounder as well.  It's on the edge of that one pick difference between day 2 and day 3 pick so he didn't fall that crazy far in the NFL draft. 

+7 3rd round compensation picks

By this logic, Deebo Samuel is more of a 1st round pick than Butler is a 3rd. 

Do we consider Drew Lock a 1st rounder? he went only 3 picks later into his round than Butler when you factor in the 3rd round comp picks.

When is the cut off for this slippery slope?

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1 hour ago, chook said:

My point is the logic used isn't watertight 

Well there are always outliers in any sample study. But his logic was 100% correct. Arizona obviously thinks Isabella is the better prospect. Could that end up not being the case? Sure.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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3 hours ago, The Man With No Name said:

Not a believer. though much of the FBG staff - Bloom, Wood, Bramel,  Tefertiller, Waldman) have him as a top 10 Dynasty rookie. I passed him up at pick 21

Nice to see the FBG staff correctly assessing Butler and not succumbing to the “he was drafted in round X so he is worth Y” simpleton thinking. 

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Just now, TripItUp said:

Nice to see the FBG staff correctly assessing Butler and not succumbing to the “he was drafted in round X so he is worth Y” simpleton thinking. 

Yeah, those damn simpletons who actually take into consideration how actual NFL teams feel anout a prospect where he’s drafted.  Simple minded peasants.

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