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Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts (1 Viewer)

He closed for a 1st place team @ 20 years of age and after his personal behavior blew half his season was 10 for 10 in September saves for another one. Name any other closer in baseball and i'll bet you $100 for charity Osuna will have more saves in '19

 
took bird
Boone has said there won't be a platoon between Voit and Bird, that one of them will win the job outright. But now with Aaron Hicks out to start the season, maybe both players will get full-time at-bats.

It's a tricky situation, but Bird has always had talent, he just can't stay on the field. 

 
Boone has said there won't be a platoon between Voit and Bird, that one of them will win the job outright. But now with Aaron Hicks out to start the season, maybe both players will get full-time at-bats.

It's a tricky situation, but Bird has always had talent, he just can't stay on the field. 
They seem very unconcerned in a vaccum about being so right handed in Yankee stadium but I’m hedging bird will be hard to hold back if healthy.  I’m a big voit believer but he went in the 13th of my nyc based league which is a little early for me

without hicks their only lefty bat right now is Gardner 

 
ketel marte has sneaky value for me at ss and 2b and will become of eligible.  i think brandon drury sees ABs all year in toronto.  julio urias.  joe jimenez.  jhoulys chacin.  

 
I am too late to this one, but apparently Ryan McMahon has been turning heads with the glove.  May get the 2B job outright.  Projection systems have him in the 17/7 range in 140ish games, but across double and triple A the last two years he hit 334/378 in 174 games with 31 HR, 14 SB, and 92 XBH.

 
With work, I've missed most of the early stuff this year.  Any injuries that would move the needle on a cheat sheet?

 
He closed for a 1st place team @ 20 years of age and after his personal behavior blew half his season was 10 for 10 in September saves for another one. Name any other closer in baseball and i'll bet you $100 for charity Osuna will have more saves in '19
I agree. But I sure wish that career trajectory didn't remind me so much of Giles.

 
I agree. But I sure wish that career trajectory didn't remind me so much of Giles.
Born closer. Jays thought they were gonna stretch him out but, soon as he saw a big-league 9th, he said nah i'm good. Lost his Kavorka last year but, @ 24, can get it back easy.

 
I am too late to this one, but apparently Ryan McMahon has been turning heads with the glove.  May get the 2B job outright.  Projection systems have him in the 17/7 range in 140ish games, but across double and triple A the last two years he hit 334/378 in 174 games with 31 HR, 14 SB, and 92 XBH.
very invested in him. since the Rocks #1 prospect is an MI too and Hampson is showing he can handle OF/Util i hope they give this year to McMahon @ 2b. just the kind of bat i like at altitudes, but they gotta give him a real shot or it'll kill his confidence again.

 
very invested in him. since the Rocks #1 prospect is an MI too and Hampson is showing he can handle OF/Util i hope they give this year to McMahon @ 2b. just the kind of bat i like at altitudes, but they gotta give him a real shot or it'll kill his confidence again.
I got Hampson in most all my league and in all but one I got McMahon as insurance, but looks like he'll be more than that.

Last auction I was in I got Hampson for about $4, then had to pay $8 for MaMahon

 
I am too late to this one, but apparently Ryan McMahon has been turning heads with the glove.  May get the 2B job outright.  Projection systems have him in the 17/7 range in 140ish games, but across double and triple A the last two years he hit 334/378 in 174 games with 31 HR, 14 SB, and 92 XBH.
What’s Rodgers gotta do for a look?  Is Hampson more like a lemeithu or more pop?

 
What’s Rodgers gotta do for a look?  Is Hampson more like a lemeithu or more pop?
Gotta think Hampson wailing this spring surprised the Rox a lot more than McMahon. Glove, speed were his prospect scores. He looked a little overmatched late last summer (i was in some 30-team leagues, so sweated every call-up), frankly. So did McMahon in his '18 shot, tho he has more natural stick. Murph signing & Arenado resigning backed a lot of stuff up, so we'll just have to see on Colo's IF prospects.

 
What’s Rodgers gotta do for a look?  Is Hampson more like a lemeithu or more pop?
It may be recency bias, but I don't think the Rockies like giving their unproven prospects (even the better ones) major roles too soon.  I think it's usually a good thing for their development, but it can be frustrating in our game.

 
It may be recency bias, but I don't think the Rockies like giving their unproven prospects (even the better ones) major roles too soon.  I think it's usually a good thing for their development, but it can be frustrating in our game.
How long was story down?  You’d think an opening like that would change their mind

 
Long term sure but not this year.  I'm definitely not as high on Tatis in redrafts as some other guy in every league.  He's never appeared above AA and Petco is a lot tougher environment than the Texas league.  His strikeouts are already high and will increase against big league pitching.  It remains to be seen if he's a major league base stealer; his fantasy value goes up if he can reach 15-20 SBs.
Didn't say this year, that wasn't the question.  He has 30+ homer upside going forward, he's not Orlando Arcia II, Electric Boogaloo.

Yeah, I think he needs to display major gains quickly to get anything more than cameo appearances before late summer. 
Major gains?  Why?  He hit 21 homers in the Midwest League as the youngest player in that league in 2017, and that's not a hitter-friendly league.  He had a .862 OPS in San Antonio last year as one of the youngest players in that league, again...not really a hitters league.  He has a 1.000 OPS this spring.  I have no idea what "major gains" means to you, but he could start opening day and be the 2nd best position player the Padres have. 

I would put Tatis on a par with Xander Bogaerts. There's 30 HR in that bat if he is taught or decides to turn on the ball, but Xander's in his walk yr and hasn't got there yet. Jr will come up when Machado needs the table set, so power won't be his focus this season
He's exponentially better than Boegarts IMO.  I mean, he's better right now. X man had a really good year last year but he's probably a high 700 OPS guy most years, Tatis is just at a different level. 

 
Pull heavy with a high k rate and a tendency to hit the ball on the ground. Give him more PA's against lower competition and see if he can improve in those areas. It will serve him better at the show. This team isnt winning a title this year. Dont rush it. Promote him when he shows he's ready. 

 
I'm sure every fan has questions about the closer they see most often but I'm selling Osuna. Ryan Pressly is a better arm IMO.
Pressly got a 2/$17.5 million extension today. Like him a lot if I'm using the middle relief strategy or in holds leads. If Osuna eventually proves me right, even better.

 
He's exponentially better than Boegarts IMO.  I mean, he's better right now. X man had a really good year last year but he's probably a high 700 OPS guy most years, Tatis is just at a different level. 
Exponentially better would make Tatis a 16 WAR player

ETA:  or 40 :shrug:

 
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Nice to hear Bregman got extended. Price sounded good (for the owners) 

 
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Which Lowe in Tampa am I supposed to care about?
They just paid Brandon so he’s gonna get 4-500 at-bats and play all over the place. Seems valuable to me. The first baseman will probably be up this summer too (Nate). 

Theee’s also a CF but he’s not a 2019 guy. 

 
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Sleepers/Breakouts/Undervalued

C - Not wild about the C this year, but Danny Jensen should turn a profit. 

1B - Justin Bour should get plenty of ABs this year since Pujols can no longer play 1B.

2B - Cesar Hernandez was hurt last year and I expect a nice bounce-back (if he stays healthy). Even better player in OBP leagues. Gabe saying Cutch will start the year at leadoff just helps his price. I expect him to bat leadoff a lot.

SS - Big fan of Jorge Polanco. He was ready to breakout before the PED suspension. This is the year.

3B - Justin Turner is the easy answer here every year. Matt Chapman continues to improve.

OF - I like David Dahl,  Michael Conforto and Schwarbs to breakout.

SP - I like Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Musgrove to take steps forward this year.

RP - I think Seranthony gets the saves in Philly. One of the Phillies biggest needs this offseason was a reliever to get out lefties. They missed out on Britton and Miller so they moved on to David Robertson (who has reverse splits and is nasty against lefties).  If Seranthony can handle it, I think Robertson is used primarily in the lefty role. Ryan Brasier seems worth a flier with as bad as Barnes has looked.

Busts

C - Wilson Ramos - Aging and out of shape. Not good attributes for a catcher.

1B - Joey Votto - Power is gone and he doesnt care about stats anyway.

2B - Javier Baez - He's a good player, but not as good as last year.

SS - Adalberto Mondesi - Atrocious plate discipline. You can't steal first base.

3B - Miguel Andujar - Tough to find a bust in this group, but some Yankees honk will grab him too early.

OF - Marcel Ozuna looked bad last year and has looked horrid this spring. Not with a 10ft pole. Not a believer in Mitch Haniger either.

SP - I think Klubes and Bumgarner are rapidly approaching the cliff. Paxton and Strasburg are getting drafted like they're 200ip workhorses, but cant be counted on.

RP - David Robertson (see above). 

 
Good stuff @E-Z Glider  :thumbup:

Agreed about Jansen - good balance between upside and price point and the position is even more dredge than usual.

I expected Polanco's price to come up at some point this month and it just never happened. Using last year as a baseline, he just needs 65/10/65/10/265/335 to turn a profit.  Barring injury his floor is higher than that and he'll be in the top 3rd of a good lineup.

ERod's so close to a breakout - and on a good team.  Musgrove wasn't a priority for me mainly because I think others in his neighborhood have more K upside and similar likelihood of success, but he was on the list and I got him for a buck in one leeg.  We'll see if I get him tonight.

Your busts is a who's who of guys I wasn't ever going to draft.  

 
I'm all in on Niko Goodrum as a dollar days pickup.  He's a late bloomer in his age 27 season coming off a quiet 16/12 in 2018.  He should get more ABs this year playing all over the diamond.  He has eligibility at every position but C so he's useful as a lineup filler in daily leagues.

ETA:  Mikie Mahtook was my guy last year so treat this tip accordingly.

 
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I'm all in on Niko Goodrum as a dollar days pickup.  He's a late bloomer in his age 27 season coming off a quiet 16/12 in 2018.  He should get more ABs this year playing all over the diamond.  He has eligibility at every position but C so he's useful as a lineup filler in daily leagues.

ETA:  Mikie Mahtook was my guy last year so treat this tip accordingly.
I thought I had Goodrum and Jeff McNeil in my back pocket as end-game MI’s in Pie Leeg.

Missed out on both.  :kicksrock:

 
I thought I had Goodrum and Jeff McNeil in my back pocket as end-game MI’s in Pie Leeg.

Missed out on both.  :kicksrock:
Loved McNeil at the end of last year. He helped me stay in the playoff race for an eventual 2nd place finish, was bummed they got cano. Looks like he’s earning his time though. 

Thanks for the lists guys. Lots of fantasy football teams but always turned down baseball offers until last year. Now I’m in one redraft and one keeper (where I am an expansion team as they move from 10 to 12.) 

 
Sleeper: Nick Pivetta with 15 wins and 200 K's.

Breakout: Paul Goldschmidt finishes in the major league top five in each of the Triple Crown categories.

Bust: Trevor Bauer. Big mouth, bad attitude finally meets karma.
Not sure on Bauer as a bust. Probably would have been close to being MLB K leader last year had he not missed last 6 weeks.  Bauer has command with 4 pitches and that makes him much more difficult to hit against. Sherzer has always touted how good he is and that has worked out OK.

 
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Agree, one of the cheapest source of SBs out there and he's gonna play 150 if healthy.  I think 30+ steals is possible and that's a really cheap 30 steals.  Guys like Allen who are really good fielders are gonna get a chance to play a lot, he's saving runs in the big picture.  I think he's draftable in all formats 10 teams and above, or he'll be a hot WW commodity. 
I own Allen in one league and I see him go in the 'sleeper' range in a couple others and I do like him but what are the Indians doing to him?

Saying today that Tyler Naquin will start every day and Allen will be in a bench role. Plus they signed CarGo. I still believe in Allen's talent winning out over those two but I'm not convinced they won't keep trying to bring in guys in front of him and I feel like their love of using him as a late game runner/def replacement will mean a lot of his steals come when I have him him benched.

Also I'm about 70% sure I have Naquin's first name right but I don't care enough about him to be sure. 

 
Is anyone kicking the tires on **** Hernandez? Roberts has named him the starting second baseman. Last year he accumulated over 400 at-bats playing all over the diamond. He had a rep for struggling mightily against RH's, and seemed doomed as a platoon player. But he did okay last year, and put up decent counting stats. 

He is going to bat seventh, and you never know when he will be yanked out of the lineup for some unknown reason.

 
Is anyone kicking the tires on **** Hernandez? Roberts has named him the starting second baseman. Last year he accumulated over 400 at-bats playing all over the diamond. He had a rep for struggling mightily against RH's, and seemed doomed as a platoon player. But he did okay last year, and put up decent counting stats. 

He is going to bat seventh, and you never know when he will be yanked out of the lineup for some unknown reason.
I picked him and Luis Urias up late in Pie as a daily sub for whoever was off that day - between the Tatis and Greg Allen news it looks like he's now a starter and I'm now in search of another sub.

He wasn't picked up in my auction, so if he's still available when Cespedes is placed on the DL I'll pick him up for the same purpose I intended in Pie.

 
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Is anyone kicking the tires on **** Hernandez? Roberts has named him the starting second baseman. Last year he accumulated over 400 at-bats playing all over the diamond. He had a rep for struggling mightily against RH's, and seemed doomed as a platoon player. But he did okay last year, and put up decent counting stats. 

He is going to bat seventh, and you never know when he will be yanked out of the lineup for some unknown reason.
****'s a very useful guy to have in daily leagues as a lineup plugger.  He's better in OBP leagues but doesn't steal bases.

His .487/.500/.923 line in 40 career ABs vs Bumgarner is pretty amazing.

 
A little Enrique Hernandez nugget from twitter

Enrique Hernandez contact rate / ISO trend: 

2016:  70% / .134

2017:  73% / .205

2018:  81% / .214

19-ST: 92% / .308

 
I know it was the Tigers but Domingo German's stuff is nasty.  If he can learn to get this fastball over the plate with any consistency he will be very tough to hit.  16 swinging strikes.....jeesh.

 
Eesh. Why?
Post TJ he had a SwStk rate > 12%, O-Swing rate > 30%, and Contact rate < 75% for two straight seasons.  One start does not a season make.  I'm a whole lot more concerned about his velocity than the walks from last weekend.  I'm benching him Thursday, but if it goes halfway decently he's slated for the Pirates, Marlins, and a double dose of the Diamondbacks next.

 

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