Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Sign in to follow this  
TheIronSheik

2019 Spring/Summer Severe Weather

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, TheIronSheik said:

They upped the risk area, but only for areas south of us.  I guess we'll see what tomorrow's update brings.  Models show a pretty decent bowed line moving through SEPA early evening.  

As expected, we've been upgraded to SLIGHT.  While we might see some random storms throughout the day, the main threat will be around 5 to 8.  The line that comes through looks to be fairly solid.  Wind will be the main threat, but a couple small tornadoes aren't out of the question. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TheIronSheik said:

As expected, we've been upgraded to SLIGHT.  While we might see some random storms throughout the day, the main threat will be around 5 to 8.  The line that comes through looks to be fairly solid.  Wind will be the main threat, but a couple small tornadoes aren't out of the question. 

Here's the tornado hot spot today.  Nothing overly crazy, but don't be surprised to see a couple tornado watch boxes go up for this area later this evening.

Edited by TheIronSheik

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mesoscale Discussion up for a large area of the mid Atlantic, including my area.  I expect watch boxes to start populating that area soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Upgraded to ENHANCED.  Kind of thought there'd be a chance considering the line on the models.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hear this a lot, too:  

"We had a Tornado Watch issued and I didn't hear about a single tornado hitting our area last night."  

And this is kind of two pronged.  One, just because there is a watch (or sometimes even a warning) does not mean a tornado will hit.  For a watch, it means conditions are very good for them to form.  And a warning could mean that radar is indicating swirling winds associated with a tornado.  This could just be a funnel cloud (which is essentially a tornado that doesn't touch the ground) or it could be the beginnings of a tornado that just doesn't completely manifest.  But the point is, there is, or was, a good chance for a tornado to form.  

Two, and this is a big one, just because a tornado didn't hit your house doesn't mean they didn't hit somewhere else.  This is huge in weather and we see it all of the time.  A hurricane will hit an area with 150mph winds.  Yet, 50 miles away, in an area that is part of the Hurricane Warning, people will say, "What was all the hype about?  That was nothing."  Or the news will say a winter storm is coming and people in Delaware who got 2 inches will ask why there was so much hype.  Meanwhile, PA has 18 inches of snow on the ground.

The internet has shrank the zones down some and that's good, but people who still watch local TV seem to have a hard time understanding that the weather person on TV is talking to a large group of people over a large geographic area.  They are not talking directly to you.  My dad is terrible with this.  I remember a couple years back watching a MNF with him and the news cut in because there were a couple tornadoes on the ground south of Houston.  He got mad because we lived north of Houston and that weather wasn't affecting us.  SO WHY CUT INTO THE GAME?!?!? :rant:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tomorrow we'll be watching the KS, OK, MO, AR 4 corners area.  Doesn't look like an outbreak, but could get some decent wind damage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty good large hail threat today.  When you think of scary weather things, hail isn't high on a lot of people's list.  But then you see the videos of hail the size of grapefruits raining down on an area.  Like being stoned to death by God.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JaxBill said:

@NWSJacksonville: Waves of needed rainfall expected Thu & Fri for NE FL & SE GA as low pressure tracks north over FL. Coastal hazards include rip currents & elevated surf #jaxwx #flwx #gawx https://twitter.com/NWSJacksonville/status/1123771269424586753/photo/1

Dry af in Tampa.  We need the rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Strong storms moving through N FL. 

@NWSJacksonville: Radar depicts 40 to 60 mph winds over north central Saint Johns County along I-95 with subtle rotation aloft southwest of the WGV. #jaxwx #flwx High profile vehicles on I-95 between CR210 and CR 207 should take caution, #jaxwx #flwx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rough week ahead for the middle of the country.  Will move east but still yet to be determined at what strength.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, TheIronSheik said:

Rough week ahead for the middle of the country.  Will move east but still yet to be determined at what strength.

Panhandle of Texas could see some pretty decent tornadoes and possibly large hail tomorrow.  Slow mover that shifts slightly east for Wednesday.  Thursday, the line moves across the US from MI to LA and E TX.  

Friday is starting to become the severe weather day for E PA this spring.  Looks like the streak may continue this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, TheIronSheik said:

Panhandle of Texas could see a nasty outbreak today.  

SUMMARY...An initial severe risk early this afternoon should be focused along/north of a surface front that extends southwest-northeast across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Large hail and some tornado risk will exist with these storms. Additional development is likely by mid/late afternoon across additional portions of the Texas Panhandle. Supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. The tornado risk will tend to steadily increase through late afternoon and especially early this evening, including the potential for a couple of strong/intense tornadoes. Damaging winds could also be an increasing concern across the eastern Panhandles this evening.

Serious storms going to roll through this area later today.  Batten down the hatches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/6/2019 at 1:17 PM, TheIronSheik said:

Panhandle of Texas could see some pretty decent tornadoes and possibly large hail tomorrow.  Slow mover that shifts slightly east for Wednesday.  Thursday, the line moves across the US from MI to LA and E TX.  

Friday is starting to become the severe weather day for E PA this spring.  Looks like the streak may continue this week.

They've eased up a bit since a couple days ago, but the 7-day out look in the upper half of LA was 7 to 10 inches of rain, with some severe storms possible as well. Water is to the bottom of most or all river levees already. This is going to get dicey. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Nathan R. Jessep said:

They've eased up a bit since a couple days ago, but the 7-day out look in the upper half of LA was 7 to 10 inches of rain, with some severe storms possible as well. Water is to the bottom of most or all river levees already. This is going to get dicey. 

Yeah, I'm always a little skeptical of QPF totals for too far out, but these storms don't seem like they're in a hurry to move out of TX/LA any time fast.

 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, JaxBill said:

Houston suburbs, already drenched, had 4 more inches if rain....in last 3 hours

@JeffLindner1: 3hr rainfall totals #houwx #hounews https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1125929894981111810/photo/1

I saw the pictures where entire roads were washed away leaving a 20 foot trench in its place.  Crazy.

One of Houston's main problems is that it used to be a swamp.  And then they built the bayous to drain them and allow it to be built on.  But there's so much pavement and concrete now that the water has no place to go.  There really is no fix for the problem and it's just going to keep getting worse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Severe threat diminishes slightly today.  That's because we lose shear, which helps allow for storms to grow because it moves rain off of the thunderhead.  But with no shear, these storms become big time rain events and also have no real push to move them.  So if you live in E TX, N LA or S AR be prepared for flooding rains over the next couple of days.  It's going to be bad.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NHC tweeted out a pretty good tweet today.  It was referencing how people think "Well, it's only a Category 1 hurricane."

Since 2010, in the US, Cat 1 storms have caused:

- $103 billion dollars of damage

- 175 direct deaths

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Photos: Severe thunderstorms battering Houston, southern Texas with baseball-sized hail and flooding rainfall.

Lots of flash flooding,  stalled cars and even rain inside Minute Maid Park.

I saw during the Astros game last night, it started pouring in centerfield.  Which was odd because the roof was closed. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Spillway opening moved from next Tuesday to today due to heavy rainfall over the last day. They're trying to keep New Orleans and surrounding area from flooding. This will be the first time the spillway has ever been opened twice in the same year. Ever. Crazy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Upcoming few days are going to be wild.  Sunday, the St. Louis area could see some serious tornadoes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next couple of days could be rough.  This current system comes through with a large swath of severe weather tomorrow.  But Sunday, while the severe area shrinks, it actually looks like a bigger tornado outbreak is possible.  This would be for IL and IN.  

This is just the appetizer, because the next system coming ashore on the west coast is going to be a big one for Monday and Tuesday.  This has the potential for a big outbreak.  A lot of energy associated with these systems.  This current one dumped 1 to 3 feet of snow up in the Sierras.  Not very normal for middle of May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TheIronSheik said:

Next couple of days could be rough.  This current system comes through with a large swath of severe weather tomorrow.  But Sunday, while the severe area shrinks, it actually looks like a bigger tornado outbreak is possible.  This would be for IL and IN.  

This is just the appetizer, because the next system coming ashore on the west coast is going to be a big one for Monday and Tuesday.  This has the potential for a big outbreak.  A lot of energy associated with these systems.  This current one dumped 1 to 3 feet of snow up in the Sierras.  Not very normal for middle of May.

Also, today,  the dryline setting up over NE is the biggest worry.  It's a rather small area, but it has the potential to fire up a couple dangerous supercells.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Also, today,  the dryline setting up over NE is the biggest worry.  It's a rather small area, but it has the potential to fire up a couple dangerous supercells.

You know it's not a good sign when you hear storm chasers are gathering in the area.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, WDIK2 said:

You know it's not a good sign when you hear storm chasers are gathering in the area.

It's true.  They always say if Jim Cantore shows up to your city for an approaching hurricane, or if Reed Timmer shows up in your area for severe weather, you're f'd. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

It's true.  They always say if Jim Cantore shows up to your city for an approaching hurricane, or if Reed Timmer shows up in your area for severe weather, you're f'd. 

Probably 25 years ago I saw the University of Oklahoma storm team roll through my small town.  4 Maroon Chrysler mini vans.  I'm sure they've upgraded their equipment since then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The more I look at it, the more Monday is looking like it could be a big outbreak.  Like one that leads the news cycle for Monday and Tuesday.  This will be the biggest outbreak we've seen in a couple years, most likely.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are some long range models showing temps 5/25 & 5/26 (Memorial Day Weekend) as being 105+ across Southeast. 

Edited by JaxBill

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today is the day.  This is going to be a doozy.  On average, the US sees about 1 HIGH risk day a year.  Today is that day.  It will be a huge tornado outbreak today across OK and TX, but what makes it even more dangerous is that those same places could see 10+ inches of rain, as well.  This is going to be a very bad day for a lot of people.  If you live in the HIGH risk area, be prepared and BE SAFE. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, TheIronSheik said:

Today is the day.  This is going to be a doozy.  On average, the US sees about 1 HIGH risk day a year.  Today is that day.  It will be a huge tornado outbreak today across OK and TX, but what makes it even more dangerous is that those same places could see 10+ inches of rain, as well.  This is going to be a very bad day for a lot of people.  If you live in the HIGH risk area, be prepared and BE SAFE. 

@MJVentrice: SPC has upgraded today's severe thunderstorm risk to a "High" risk of 5 out of 5. This is going to be a day that features violent tornandoes across Texas and Oklahoma. Stay aware folks and take the necessary precautions. To all the chasers, keep in mind your life is > a video. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1130438512753479680/photo/1

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is going to be an all day, into the overnight event.  There are already Severe Thunderstorm Watches up for NM, TX and OK.  This is just the beginning.  Expect a lot of PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) tornado watches and warnings today.  That means large tornadoes that have the potential to be on the ground for 20+ miles.  

And again, what makes it really dangerous is that with 5-10 inches of rain, a lot of places that would be a safe place from a tornado are now inaccessible due to flooding.  If you live in this area, figure out right now where your TWO safe places are.  Because if your primary spot is flooded, you need to know where a higher, safe spot is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the start time for the worst of the severe weather will be around 1pm CT.  Tornado Watch should go up for that area at any second.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are right on the edge of the severe storm area in Colorado, but the meteorologists here are still warning of a chance for big storms this afternoon (wind/hail/lightning), but then tonight we may get 1-3 inches of snow. Run the A/C one day---had to turn the heater back on this morning. Crazy spring weather... 

edit--as I am typing this our first round of heavy rain and small hail just hit.

Edited by Courtjester

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.