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2020 Spring/Summer Severe Weather (2 Viewers)

TheIronSheik said:
But the central OK PDS Tornado Watch is up.  Goes until 10 and pretty much includes all of central OK.
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* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph expected Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter expected

 
JaxBill said:
Looking at radar it seems to my untrained eye that Kansas is getting it much worse than OK.
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Kansas is getting heavy rain and some severe storms.  But the events in OK haven't begun yet.  The dryline will push across TX and OK and there will be huge supercells that blow up.  For the big EF-5 type tornadoes, they will almost always spawn from supercells.  A strong line of storms can create tornadoes, but they are usually lower end twisters.  So while the radar looks impressive in Kansas, that's not the type of system that creates the dangerous HIGH risk days.  It's what's draped to the south of it that is the scary part.  The atmosphere is incredibly unstable and these supercells have the potential to rise way up.  

To put it in perspective, think of most tornado videos you see.  It's usually blue skies or overcast where the person is filming from.  There usually isn't a lot of rain.  They almost look fake.  Those are the supercells.

 
First tornado warning going up in W OK.  Radar is just blowing up in Western OK, just like it was forecast.  

See you guys on the other side.  

 
Poke_4_Life said:
First tornado warning going up in W OK.  Radar is just blowing up in Western OK, just like it was forecast.  

See you guys on the other side.  
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Yup.  Just saw a tweet from Dr. Rick Nabb saying that the event is officially getting started.  I'll be on here until about 4:15 ET, but keep an eye to your local weather outlets.  Be safe.  This is going to be very bad.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Yup.  Just saw a tweet from Dr. Rick Nabb saying that the event is officially getting started.  I'll be on here until about 4:15 ET, but keep an eye to your local weather outlets.  Be safe.  This is going to be very bad.
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I've been watching the local weather and Weather Channel all day.  I enjoy watching the coverage, even tho it scares me when it's in my neck of the woods.

 
Wild day yesterday.  Again, that was the first HIGH risk day we've seen in 2 years.  Probably won't be a lot of good tornado footage because most of the tornadoes were rain wrapped.  So not only were they tough to see, but a lot of chasers didn't even venture out yesterday because rain wrapped tornadoes are extremely dangerous.  The Mangum tornado was the only one I really saw any good footage of.  Just glad most of the tornadoes hit rural areas with little human population.

Days like today can be dangerous because ENHANCED risk seems so much lower than HIGH, but today is still a potentially big day for OK, MO and AR.  Thursday, PA gets in on the action.

Then for the holiday weekend it looks like PA could get something big on Saturday.  I haven't really looked at the details too much with everything else going on, but I see the SPC has most of PA outlined for severe on D5, which usually means they see something solid so far out.

 
Poke_4_Life said:
Checking in.  Pretty lame at my house yesterday.  Didn't start raining until after 8pm.  Got severe thunderstorms and a little flooding around but nothing too bad.  
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Yeah, line moved much slower than anticipated.  A lot of the northern edges of the risk area got cooled down too quickly, limiting tornadoes up there.

This is one of those days you look back at and say everything was there to produce a really bad outbreak.  But ripe conditions don't always equal results.  Usually they do, but not always.  If we went back and regraded the category that probably was produced, it would be ENHANCED, which is two cats down.  But they definitely made the correct call to have it at a HIGH risk.  Glad to hear everything your way was good.  

I don't know if I could live in OK.  Maybe you just get used to it, but going through a day like yesterday has to be terrifying.  At least, for me, it would be.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I don't know if I could live in OK.  Maybe you just get used to it, but going through a day like yesterday has to be terrifying.  At least, for me, it would be.
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People always say this.  To this I respond I've lived in OK over 40 years, I've never had a structure I lived in damaged by a tornado.  I've seen tornadoes, I've seen large hail, I've helped after several tornadoes.  It is what it is and is part of life to me.  Every place has its good and its bad, but I like the people and the cost of living.   :shrug:

Yesterday was scary, but we have really good weather folks here and I know to pay attention to the weather from mid-March to mid-June.  Just a part of life to me.

 
Poke_4_Life said:
People always say this.  To this I respond I've lived in OK over 40 years, I've never had a structure I lived in damaged by a tornado.  I've seen tornadoes, I've seen large hail, I've helped after several tornadoes.  It is what it is and is part of life to me.  Every place has its good and its bad, but I like the people and the cost of living.   :shrug:

Yesterday was scary, but we have really good weather folks here and I know to pay attention to the weather from mid-March to mid-June.  Just a part of life to me.
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Yeah, I didn't mean it by a knock or anything.  I think the same thing about places that have earthquakes or lava flows.  But at the same time, I've heard people from those places say they don't think they could live in a place that gets tropical storms or blizzards.  So I totally get that.  

But if my company said I was moving to OK, I'm sure the first 5 years of living there I'd be in my tornado shelter every time the sun dipped behind a cloud.  :lol:

 
Another round of severe weather in the same area that's been hammered the past 3 days.  

Tomorrow, my area gets in on the action.  We are in the ENHANCED risk, which is pretty much the highest we see in this area.  We average about 2 of these risk days a year for my location.  So could be interesting.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Another round of severe weather in the same area that's been hammered the past 3 days.  

Tomorrow, my area gets in on the action.  We are in the ENHANCED risk, which is pretty much the highest we see in this area.  We average about 2 of these risk days a year for my location.  So could be interesting.
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I'm seeing talk from reputable mets in this area saying we could see the level raised to MODERATE.  I can't remember the last time my area was in MODERATE.  I'm working on a pet project to show how many times my location has seen a risk since the categories were expanded back in Oct of 2014.  As of now, I haven't seen a MODERATE risk for us.

The reason for the possible upgrade is the formation of supercells that have a good possibility of producing tornadoes.  Supercells are not common up this way.  Should be an interesting day.  Looks like 5 to 9 will be the timeframe.  

 
TheIronSheik said:
I'm seeing talk from reputable mets in this area saying we could see the level raised to MODERATE.  I can't remember the last time my area was in MODERATE.  I'm working on a pet project to show how many times my location has seen a risk since the categories were expanded back in Oct of 2014.  As of now, I haven't seen a MODERATE risk for us.

The reason for the possible upgrade is the formation of supercells that have a good possibility of producing tornadoes.  Supercells are not common up this way.  Should be an interesting day.  Looks like 5 to 9 will be the timeframe.  
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I figured Mt. Olympus would be immune to Super Cells

 
No upgrade with the newest update.  Models have backed off slightly, but still a possible dangerous situation for almost all of PA tomorrow.

 
TheIronSheik said:
No upgrade with the newest update.  Models have backed off slightly, but still a possible dangerous situation for almost all of PA tomorrow.
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TIS - Quick question re. timing - my wife is looking to fly from Newark to Pittsburgh tomorrow night - impacts?

 
Fat Nick said:
TIS - Quick question re. timing - my wife is looking to fly from Newark to Pittsburgh tomorrow night - impacts?
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It looks like the timeframe will be between 5 and 9 at this point for our area.  I'm not much of a pilot, but I would imagine it will be a possibly bumpy ride.  

 
Meanwhile we're bracing for a huge heat wave in the Southeast. Starting Saturday predicted highs are 99-103 with little to no rain for a solid week.

Today is merely 96.

 
Seeing on twitter that two barges are out of control in Arkansas River and going to impact a dam near Webbers Falls, OK.  They are evacuating the entire town and saying flooding will be catastrophic if the dam breaks

 
JaxBill said:
Meanwhile we're bracing for a huge heat wave in the Southeast. Starting Saturday predicted highs are 99-103 with little to no rain for a solid week.

Today is merely 96.
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We got 3-4 straight days 95 and above here in central MS....I'm not sure its unheard of, but its not the norm for May.  No rain in sight after the wettest winter/spring I can remember.  

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Update for Central PA?
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SPC still has us in the ENHANCED risk category.  Everything hinges on how much heat we get this afternoon.  If the clouds stick around longer than expected, severe weather won't be as bad as advertised.  But if the sun comes out and heats up the atmosphere, it'll be a wild day.  The threat of tornadoes has gone down considerably, but still there.  I think the time frame will be sooner than originally thought.  Maybe like 2 to 7.  I think this will be a day where not everyone sees the big storms, but the places that do will get hit fairly good.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Seeing on twitter that two barges are out of control in Arkansas River and going to impact a dam near Webbers Falls, OK.  They are evacuating the entire town and saying flooding will be catastrophic if the dam breaks
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The barges are stuck on a rock outcropping and officials are trying to secure them.  This update is from 3 hours ago, I can't find anything additional.  

Article

 
TheIronSheik said:
SPC still has us in the ENHANCED risk category.  Everything hinges on how much heat we get this afternoon.  If the clouds stick around longer than expected, severe weather won't be as bad as advertised.  But if the sun comes out and heats up the atmosphere, it'll be a wild day.  The threat of tornadoes has gone down considerably, but still there.  I think the time frame will be sooner than originally thought.  Maybe like 2 to 7.  I think this will be a day where not everyone sees the big storms, but the places that do will get hit fairly good.
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The more I'm looking at the setup, the less I'm liking the severe threat.  Not saying it won't happen, but it really seems like a lot of things are working against it right now.  Right now, I think we have a better chance of normal spring thunderstorms rather than an ENHANCED threat level.  We'll see here soon, I guess.

 
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We had a big line of heavy storms roll thru northern IN about 5:30AM today.  Radar looked like the classic "bow echo" shape.  Appears to be in W PA now but with less solid angry red.

 
heckmanm said:
We had a big line of heavy storms roll thru northern IN about 5:30AM today.  Radar looked like the classic "bow echo" shape.  Appears to be in W PA now but with less solid angry red.
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I haven't seen if it's been officially called it yet, but it looked like a derecho.  Bow echos are usually small and localized, where when the entire line is a bow echo, it's a derecho.  Can pack some seriously damaging winds.

Oddly enough, that's what's going to probably kill the chances of really bad storms here in PA.  That line is going to sop up any instability and give us strong to severe storms.  But it'll also be the reason we don't see the big super cells.

 
TheIronSheik said:
I haven't seen if it's been officially called it yet, but it looked like a derecho.  Bow echos are usually small and localized, where when the entire line is a bow echo, it's a derecho.  Can pack some seriously damaging winds.

Oddly enough, that's what's going to probably kill the chances of really bad storms here in PA.  That line is going to sop up any instability and give us strong to severe storms.  But it'll also be the reason we don't see the big super cells.
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Yeah that's the term I was thinking of.  Didn't know the distinction, thanks.

 
jb1020 said:
We got 3-4 straight days 95 and above here in central MS....I'm not sure its unheard of, but its not the norm for May.  No rain in sight after the wettest winter/spring I can remember.  
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We already have wildfires popping up here in N Florida. One may impact holiday travel as its adjacent to I95 IN extreme northern Florida 

 
Poke_4_Life said:
The barges are stuck on a rock outcropping and officials are trying to secure them.  This update is from 3 hours ago, I can't find anything additional.  

Article
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10:53 a.m. UPDATE: Oklahoma Highway Patrol officials say the barges are again loose in the Arkansas River heading toward the Webbers Falls Locak & Dam

 
New update from the SPC keeps everyone pretty much in ENHANCED risk.  I think this is a "better safe than sorry" move.  More so for E PA.  Central PA will have the best chance to see really severe weather.  In fact, new MD just went up for Central PA.

 
TheIronSheik said:
New update from the SPC keeps everyone pretty much in ENHANCED risk.  I think this is a "better safe than sorry" move.  More so for E PA.  Central PA will have the best chance to see really severe weather.  In fact, new MD just went up for Central PA.
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TX panhandle was also upgraded to MODERATE.  It's hard to focus on other areas when my area is in the bullseye, but I did want to at least mention this.

 
TheIronSheik said:
New update from the SPC keeps everyone pretty much in ENHANCED risk.  I think this is a "better safe than sorry" move.  More so for E PA.  Central PA will have the best chance to see really severe weather.  In fact, new MD just went up for Central PA.
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Just had a line move through , ton of rain , nothing else 

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Just had a line move through , ton of rain , nothing else 
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So, just to be clear, this line moving through is the appetizer to the main event.  IF there is a main event.  If clearing happens and the air is able to get a lot more instability in it, that's where the supercells would pop up.  But it all hinges on how quickly this line moves through and how much the sun can heat back up the atmosphere.

 
TheIronSheik said:
So, just to be clear, this line moving through is the appetizer to the main event.  IF there is a main event.  If clearing happens and the air is able to get a lot more instability in it, that's where the supercells would pop up.  But it all hinges on how quickly this line moves through and how much the sun can heat back up the atmosphere.
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Right 

 
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