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cloppbeast

Parris Campbell WR Colts

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

late breakout age and below desirable production 

Was his late breakout age due to lack of opportunity, lack of talent, bad QB, or nobody knows for sure?

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Sucks for him or Hines. They seem to have some overlap in use. 

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On 4/26/2019 at 7:42 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

What about Indy? Maybe better.

It's a good landing spot. Draft him where you can brother. 

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6 hours ago, beef said:

Luck will find a way to get him the ball and do it often.  Hilton's days are becoming numbered.  Parris in Indy is looking like arguably the best opportunity of any rookie WR.  I'm buying in the 1st,

I'd 100% disagree with that. Hilton looked as good as ever last year. 

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5 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'd 100% disagree with that. Hilton looked as good as ever last year. 

Right. He is on board for 2 more seasons, then will be UFA at age 31. He could still get a huge contract offer in free agency if they don't or can't re-sign him. So it could take awhile for Campbell to get #1 targets (if he ever can).

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Posted (edited)

my wr7 and 14 overall 

I might drop him below marquise Brown due to being the wr2 in that offense at best. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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12 hours ago, reggio1 said:

Was his late breakout age due to lack of opportunity, lack of talent, bad QB, or nobody knows for sure?

Switched to WR from RB at some point during college, freshman year maybe.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, reggio1 said:

Was his late breakout age due to lack of opportunity, lack of talent, bad QB, or nobody knows for sure?

QB
tOSU offense.

Barrett was god-awful.  Horrible accuracy and missed a ton of windows to get people the ball.  Great system guy and I love what he gave to the program, but we could have won 3 with the talent and coaching we had.

Urban's spread offense also did him no favors.  Not a lot of actual routes, lots of crosses and screens designed to get the ball in the hands of the athletes (and we had a TON) and let them fly.  We had/have 3-5 guys at any given time like that and they spread the ball out to all of them.  Wasn't a system designed to feed the ball to a single guy and it wouldn't have mattered because we didn't have a QB (until Haskins) that could get it there reliably.

I wrote up a pretty big post on him with the bottom line that he needed a good systems with a creative-minded offensive guy running it - was hoping Reid/Payton/Nagy level, but Reich is the next gen of that model.  This moves Campbell up a lot in my rankings.

Edited by Hankmoody
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I wrote up a pretty big post on him with the bottom line that he needed a good systems with a creative-minded offensive guy running it - was hoping Reid/Payton/Nagy level, but Reich is the next gen of that model.  This moves Campbell up a lot in my rankings.

I was expecting him to come in as a project without getting anything fantasy useful out of him for a few years. Colts will give him some value while he continues to learn how to play receiver. I agree with you, Indy is among the best possible situations.

Edited by cloppbeast

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You guys need to love this pick more than you currently are. I saw Indianapolis force feed Eric Ebron the ball last season. Andrew Luck made that guy look like a freaking superstar. I saw Indianapolis force feed Chester Rogers 10+ targets multiple times and Andrew Luck made him look respectable.

Know this. The Colts did not want to throw the ball to Eric Ebron as much as they did last year but did it out of necessity. The guy was limping off the field every game and by all accounts is an absolute warrior. The point I'm trying to make is that Andrew Luck can easily support 2 1,000 yard receivers and I see no reason based on volume alone that Campbell couldn't sniff 900 yards this season.

 

He literally has nobody in front of him, plays with a Top 5 quarterback, and has the physical assets on par with pretty much anyone else in this draft class. Michael Thomas was the comparison I saw heavily pre-draft.

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On 3/8/2019 at 9:25 AM, JohnnyU said:

Tavon Austin part 2?

Not even close to a comparison. Parris can run routes for one a lot better than Austin ever did. I will give you the speed is similar. Austin actually is better in suddenness and cutting. Campbell plays bigger and most definitely a better blocker. I think the Ohio State offense is more role focused but does not mean our players cannot translate to the NFL. 

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1 hour ago, osubuckeyeman said:

Not even close to a comparison. Parris can run routes for one a lot better than Austin ever did. I will give you the speed is similar. Austin actually is better in suddenness and cutting. Campbell plays bigger and most definitely a better blocker. I think the Ohio State offense is more role focused but does not mean our players cannot translate to the NFL. 

Wasn't his ADOT like 3 yards?  Everything I read about this guy says he has a super limited route tree and will need a lot of polish.  The comp is either Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin at this point in time, depending on how successful you think he'll be.

I'd consider him around wr 3-6, which is like 1.08-2.01 for me.  I've traded all but two firsts this year (by comparison I have accumulated 16 next year) and the two I have are top 5, so I won't be getting him.

Great landing spot makes him more intriguing than most.

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Top Takeaways: 2019 Colts Rookie Minicamp

Excerpt:

Quote

» Parris Campbell? Yeah, he’s fast, but he can also get open in other ways: Campbell and his 4.31 speed was as advertised in the first two days of rookie minicamp practices, but one of his biggest question marks coming out of college was how the team would develop him in areas outside of the slot, which is where he primarily lined up while at Ohio State. The Colts’ coaches wasted no time getting going on that during on-field work starting on Friday, as Campbell would be lined up all over the formation time and time again — and, most importantly, he was finding ways to get open and make plays. “I think the question kind of coming out was, ‘Can he run routes?’” Campbell told reporters Friday. “Since I had never done it, everyone just kind of put a no on it. But I mean I’m not going to lie to you, it is something that I needed to work on just because I didn’t have experience. So that was kind of my main focus throughout that whole process. Then having a guy like Coach (Brian) Hartline at Ohio State, who is a technician, was great for me and great for my teammates. So just going in that was kind of my main focus.”

It sounds like the Colts coaching staff is wasting no time putting in the work on accelerating Campbell’s development with regards to his route running.

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On ‎5‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 4:57 PM, osubuckeyeman said:

Not even close to a comparison. Parris can run routes for one a lot better than Austin ever did. I will give you the speed is similar. Austin actually is better in suddenness and cutting. Campbell plays bigger and most definitely a better blocker. I think the Ohio State offense is more role focused but does not mean our players cannot translate to the NFL. 

Agreed. The only thing close is the 40 time. Tavon is 4 inches shorter and Campbell outperformed him on the broad jump and vertical which both are measures of explosive ability.

Campbell caught passes downfield so it is just ridiculous to say he can't.

Proof: https://youtu.be/JQdY5u5WeBM?t=56

Just like it's ridiculous to say that Metcalf is just a straight line receiver. I mean what receiver runs a route like the 3 cone drill. He doesn't need short area quickness. He needs to be able to run the routes guys like Andre and Calvin ran.

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On 5/4/2019 at 12:16 PM, Bracie Smathers said:

Evan Silva‏Verified account @evansilva 3h3 hours ago

Parris Campbell "looked like the best player on the field" on day one of #Colts rookie camp, and his "speed was obvious."

------------------------------------

First look: Five observations from Colts rookie minicamp

I would hope so.

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Even if the Colts take it slow to begin with, Reich feels Campbell’s intelligence and mentality toward the game will allow him to succeed when given the chance.

“You can just tell his aptitude. He has got this football aptitude. He understands it,” Reich said. “Sometimes you explain something to somebody and you know how when you explain it and they just get it and you can tell that they get it, he is that guy. You just see how easy he adapts on the field to little coaching points.”

It’s easy to get excited about a player with Campbell’s abilities, especially when considering he’s a perfect fit for the offense.

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I took him over Deebo in almost every rookie draft. Just seems like the perfect QB and offense for him

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45 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I took him over Deebo in almost every rookie draft. Just seems like the perfect QB and offense for him

Unfortunately, I think you will regret that. Unless you're happy with wr3 upside. And its very possible that's all Deebo is too and it's a wash 

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Unfortunately, I think you will regret that. Unless you're happy with wr3 upside. And its very possible that's all Deebo is too and it's a wash 

One you might not want bumped in 3 years.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

One you might not want bumped in 3 years.

I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong, but to avoid repeating myself it would be a statistical outlier if he were to become a wr2 and an even bigger anomaly if he was a wr1 based on his DR and BA. I have no problem coming in here 3 years from now and admitting hes one of the rare exceptions and great for all of you taking such a big risk! I dont think I will be though. Stats are heavily on my side. 

 

ETA: it's not that I think Deebo will be great. I actually dont expect either to achieve greatness. Deebo has some wr2 upside but I think that's where hes capped. and a lot depends on his offense. I'm actually trying to trade him. Campbell I just dont think ends up as a very good fantasy wr. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Quote

According to Kevin Bowen of 1070 The Fan, Colts second-round WR Parris Campbell "should be in the mix" for No. 3 receiver duties in Indianapolis this year.

The Colts' receiving depth chart remains unsettled behind locked-in starters T.Y. Hilton and Devin Funchess. Campbell enters training camp with a chance to carve out a role as Indy's third receiver, though with Hilton and Funchess in front of him along with tight ends Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle, the former Buckeye could struggle for consistent targets in a suddenly dense Colts receiving corps.

SOURCE: 1070 The Fan

Jun 16, 2019, 12:30 PM ET

 

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I think one thing to keep in mind when discussing if he can be an outlier in regards to his DR and BA...look at his QB for his college career before Haskins took over. Even Michael Thomas, besides being fundamentally sound, had questions about his upside due to that offense and the trigger man. 

He's a freak athlete paired for his career with Andrew Luck. That has to count for something as well. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I think one thing to keep in mind when discussing if he can be an outlier in regards to his DR and BA...look at his QB for his college career before Haskins took over. Even Michael Thomas, besides being fundamentally sound, had questions about his upside due to that offense and the trigger man. 

He's a freak athlete paired for his career with Andrew Luck. That has to count for something as well. 

But there are a lot of wrs who overcame these short comings to still produce. I'm not saying it's something to completely disregard, but the facts are the facts. 

Hopkins broke out as a freshman with Kyle Parker throwing him the ball...

 The cream will always rise to the top. 

Edited by Johnny B. Goode

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1 hour ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

But there are a lot of wrs who overcame these short comings to still produce. I'm not saying it's something to completely disregard, but the facts are the facts. 

Hopkins broke out as a freshman with Kyle Parker throwing him the ball...

 The cream will always rise to the top. 

I understand what the numbers say, for sure.

I also trust Chris Ballard and the roster he's putting together, and that they think Campbell is a good fit for Reich. He's got athleticism, situation, pedigree, and from me at least the benefit of the doubt given to the FO that drafted him. Those are all factors we each weight differently of course. 

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2 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I think one thing to keep in mind when discussing if he can be an outlier in regards to his DR and BA...look at his QB for his college career before Haskins took over. Even Michael Thomas, besides being fundamentally sound, had questions about his upside due to that offense and the trigger man. 

He's a freak athlete paired for his career with Andrew Luck. That has to count for something as well. 

The hang up I have is how much more productive Curtis Samuel was in similar circumstances. My understanding is they wanted to give that role to Campbell, but ended up disbursing it amongst several different players because Parris wasnt up for it. The statistical breakout didnt happen until he got Hawkins, more Ryan Day, and less Urban. And there's legitimate reason to believe that breakout was more scheme than skill. He's in as good of a situation as he could have gotten, but I still question the ceiling. 

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43 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I understand what the numbers say, for sure.

I also trust Chris Ballard and the roster he's putting together, and that they think Campbell is a good fit for Reich. He's got athleticism, situation, pedigree, and from me at least the benefit of the doubt given to the FO that drafted him. Those are all factors we each weight differently of course. 

Hes done a great job. One thing many of us, myself included, need reminders about is that what the NFL values doesnt directly translate to fantasy. Campbell may provide them a gadget player to fill a specific need. They may not have drafted him ever thinking he would be anything more than a slot guy with a specific role. 

Not trying to pee on anyone's cheerios but it's always interesting to see expectations going crazy because a player is fast, or they're tall, or whatever. I am not expecting Campbell to be much for fantasy

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54 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

The hang up I have is how much more productive Curtis Samuel was in similar circumstances. 

This. Reading this thread you'd think Campbell is a future stud. The excuses are the surrounding talent due to the prestige of the program, the qb was no good until Haskins, the play calling. Yet Samuel was able to do quite well with regards to his BA and DR, without Haskins. I imagine no one here thinks Samuel will be a stud (although I do see him as having a better career than Campbell). 

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If Curtis Samuels was paired with Luck I think a lot of people would consider him a potential foundational piece. Even as it stands he's a popular off-season acquisition target for some. 

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I've taken my shot with Campbell in dyno. In two years Hilton will be 31, turning 32 during the season. Luck the same. I want Luck's possible new #1.

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12 hours ago, John Paul said:

I've taken my shot with Campbell in dyno. In two years Hilton will be 31, turning 32 during the season. Luck the same. I want Luck's possible new #1.

Exactly. Could be a swing and miss but almost every player is that. When you get the chance to draft a future #1 with a top 5 -10 QB, you have to take that chance. As much as I want Metcalf, this offense is more explosive, he's in a dome and out of 8 division games, only plays the Titans in Tennessee in potentially bad weather. Funchess is no threat.

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, John Paul said:

I've taken my shot with Campbell in dyno. In two years Hilton will be 31, turning 32 during the season. Luck the same. I want Luck's possible new #1.

This. And I think we also can't dismiss that Samuel may still break out this year. There has been a lot of buzz about him this offseason. Maybe both players were held back to a degree by their college system but both could very well have the skill sets to succeed in the NFL. You can't teach speed and short area burst and that sure helps. 

Edited by ffmail4me

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52 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

This. And I think we also can't dismiss that Samuel may still break out this year. There has been a lot of buzz about him this offseason. Maybe both players were held back to a degree by their college system but both could very well have the skill sets to succeed in the NFL. You can't teach speed and short area burst and that sure helps. 

Samuel wasn't held back by anything - he turned 171 touches into 1,636 yards and 15 TD's in one season.  He lined up all over the field and was utilized accordingly.  Samuel's slower developmental curve into the NFL was because the Panthers drafted him with the intentions on utilizing him differently than in college - they saw him as a wide receiver first that could also be lethal near the LoS.  Then all that was further delayed because of ankle issues bridging both seasons. 

Campbell didn't even accumulate 171 touches across his 4 year collegiate career.  And his role was quite limited in comparison, mainly lining up outside and getting the ball quickly in space.  He has physical traits to believe he could develop into something more, but there is absolutely nothing he did in college that would leave one to believe he will.  

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15 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

This. Reading this thread you'd think Campbell is a future stud. The excuses are the surrounding talent due to the prestige of the program, the qb was no good until Haskins, the play calling. Yet Samuel was able to do quite well with regards to his BA and DR, without Haskins. I imagine no one here thinks Samuel will be a stud (although I do see him as having a better career than Campbell). 

I was admittedly very dismissive of Campbell pre-draft.  Him being drafted where he was and by this particular team left my second guessing my original impression.  I now understand where some may believe that he can develop into something special.  I can't reconcile the bolded though.  His college team had a template in place for him and decided he couldn't do it.  The story ends there.  If he develops into an alpha then it's due to player development and his own attention to detail at this level.  He has the traits to do it, but quite simply has done nothing on the field to suggest he will.  So, add it to the range of potential outcomes, but it's nowhere near an expectation.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

I was admittedly very dismissive of Campbell pre-draft.  Him being drafted where he was and by this particular team left my second guessing my original impression.  I now understand where some may believe that he can develop into something special.  I can't reconcile the bolded though.  His college team had a template in place for him and decided he couldn't do it.  The story ends there.  If he develops into an alpha then it's due to player development and his own attention to detail at this level.  He has the traits to do it, but quite simply has done nothing on the field to suggest he will.  So, add it to the range of potential outcomes, but it's nowhere near an expectation.

Exactly. I dont understand some of the words (and agreement with those words) in this thread where people think he can be a future #1 in Indy. Nothing in his history shows he can be that. If he does, that's off to him because he will have.completely changed his spots, which is unusual. 

There are plenty of wrs who were drafted onto teams with great offenses/QBs and didnt succeed. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Exactly. I dont understand some of the words (and agreement with those words) in this thread where people think he can be a future #1 in Indy. Nothing in his history shows he can be that. If he does, that's off to him because he will have.completely changed his spots, which is unusual. 

It's really not hard to understand. Campbell switched to WR from RB during college. Without enough time to learn everything about playing receiver, he instead trained for a specific role in the offense, doing pretty well putting up a lot of big plays. Everything about Parris is a projection of his god given talents, that given enough time as a professional athlete he can learn the technical side of playing receiver.

What I don't understand: your idea of a 2nd round project having only wr3 upside. Dude didn't put up a great season in his 2 years playing/learning wide receiver, how does that mean he can never do it? I mean, I could see you saying he's a risky pick. That makes perfect sense even.

 

Edited by cloppbeast

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18 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

It's really not hard to understand. Campbell switched to WR from RB during college. Without enough time to learn everything about playing receiver, he instead trained for a specific role in the offense, doing pretty well putting up a lot of big plays. Everything about Parris is a projection of his god given talents, that given enough time as a professional athlete he can learn the technical side of playing receiver.

What I don't understand: your idea of a 2nd round project having only wr3 upside. Dude didn't put up a great season in his 2 years playing/learning wide receiver, how does that mean he can never do it? I mean, I could see you saying he's a risky pick. That makes perfect sense even.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't that happen 4 years ago?  I think position switches late in one's college career or in the case of Samuel after are items to make note of.  But that long ago?  Nah.  I think their plan A in 2017 was to give him the whole Samuel role, but it wasn't working so they scaled back his workload as the season progressed.  Then they plotted out a specific role for him in 2018 and more efficient results yielded.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

 

What I don't understand: your idea of a 2nd round project having only wr3 upside

It’s not like this has never happened before in the history of the NFL draft… I’m more surprised of your certainty that he has massive upside due to the fact that he is a 2nd round WR, when history would suggest I’m closer to being correct than you are, not only because of BA and DR but just the history of the 2nd round for WRs (way more misses than hits on this list)

 

Round 2 WRs over the last 10 years:
2009

Brian Robiskie
Mohammed Massaquoi

2010

Arrelious Benn
Golden Tate

2011
Titus Young
Torey Smith
Greg Little
Randall Cobb

2012

Brian Quick
Stephen Hill

Alshon Jeffery

Ryan Broyles

Rueben Randle

2013
Justin Hunter
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson

2014

Marqise Lee
Jordan Matthews

Paul Richardson

Davante Adams

Cody Latimer

Allen Robinson

Jarvis Landry

2015

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

Devin Funchess

2016

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas

Tyler Boyd

 

2017-2019 probably too early to call these guys busts or hits.

 

 

Aside from 2014 and 2016, the vast majority of these guys are misses. And of those hits, there is only 1 who has a BA and DR that falls in the exception category. If you think Campbell can be a WR1, the odds are very much against you. I prefer to put my chips with guys who are less likely to be misses. 

I'm not saying because hes a 2md round pick he only has wr3 upside. I'm saying because his DR and BA are pretty poor, and he profiles as a slot/gadget guy, that his upside in fantasy is wr3. I dont see him being a #1 in that offense at all. If he is, he will be one of the few exceptions to the rule. I dont like to make unfavorable bets. 

So far the only argument for him being a wr1 seem to be: he has Luck, hes a 2nd rounder, and excuses for why we should ignore his BA and DR

Arguments against: BA and DR in my wr1 miss detector thread, Campbell would be a miss for wr1 and wr2. Also between 2009 and 2016 only 31% of wrs selected round 2 can probably be considered hits. Of those hits only 1 WR  had a BA and DR as an exception to the rule. Also, his failure in college to be a focal point like Samuel and settling for a specific role

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Arguments against: BA and DR in my wr1 miss detector thread, Campbell would be a miss for wr1 and wr2. Also between 2009 and 2016 only 31% of wrs selected round 2 can probably be considered hits. Of those hits only 1 WR  had a BA and DR as an exception to the rule. 

So how many of the receivers drafted in the 2nd round meet the criteria in the first place?

Edited by cloppbeast

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Just now, Jello_Biafra said:

BA/DR? 

breakout age and Dominator rating. If you havent seen my wr1 miss predictor thread I'd encourage you to search for it

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

So how many of the receivers drafted in the 2nd round meet the criteria in the 1st place?

I could certainly search that, but it's irrelevant. The criteria dosen't predict hits. it predicts likely misses. 

"Not all crazy people are serial killers but all serial killers are crazy"

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Posted (edited)

Look at it this way, if you could approach your fantasy rookie draft by skimming the most likely to miss off the top  and what you're left with is a narrower group of wrs, increasing your chance of a hit. 

 

Campbell is the fat to skim off

 

I feel like I've explained this 300 times, and the people who dont understand that predicting a miss does not inversely predict hits are never going to understand. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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7 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

So how many of the receivers drafted in the 2nd round meet the criteria in the first place?

5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I could certainly search that, but it's irrelevant.

Selection Bias

Fords get in more accidents than Saabs. Because they're less safe, or because there's way more of them?

Likely most of the receivers drafted in the 2nd meet the criteria already. So, most of the hits also meeting the criteria is not a revelation.

 

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2 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't that happen 4 years ago?  I think position switches late in one's college career or in the case of Samuel after are items to make note of.  But that long ago?  Nah.  I think their plan A in 2017 was to give him the whole Samuel role, but it wasn't working so they scaled back his workload as the season progressed.  Then they plotted out a specific role for him in 2018 and more efficient results yielded.

Yeah, I don't know. I remember reading he switched to wr freshman-sophomore year, but now I can't find anything. We'll go with you.

But it's not insignificant to move from hybrid rb/wr to slot receiver during junior year. Maybe a lot to ask him to run routes like a typical college senior?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I feel like I've explained this 300 times, and the people who dont understand that predicting a miss does not inversely predict hits are never going to understand. 

Hit% + Miss% = 100%

This equation is quite literally true. So yes, they are inversely related. Some algebra work reveals that Miss% = 1 - Hit%

Edited by cloppbeast

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